Trump Says the Deal Is ‘Almost Complete’

The rally followed remarks in which Trump framed the agreement as a near-certainty and signaled he would push it through with or without Israel’s full cooperation. Speaking about Netanyahu, the president said the Israeli leader will have “no choice” but to sign because, in his telling, he “calls the shots.”

Trump described the deal as “almost complete” and said he expected an announcement at the start of the new business week, with traders treating the language as a firmer commitment than the ceasefire speculation that has come and gone for months, and risk assets reacted within hours.

Analysts first flagged the price reaction, noting bitcoin’s 5% jump to $64,000 came directly on the back of the comments, indicating that the market read the statement less as a rumor and more as a direct signal that Washington intends to close the matter regardless of how Jerusalem responds.

A Bounce off the 2026 Low

The surge marked a sharp turn from the prior week as Bitcoin touched an intraday low near $59,100 on June 5, its weakest level since February (during what Bitcoin.com News described as the worst week of 2026 for the asset). At the lows, more than half of all BTC sat in unrealized loss, a condition that has historically lined up with major market bottoms.

Short-term chart readings had already pointed to an oversold market primed for a snapback, leaving the rally needing only a catalyst. The geopolitical headline supplied it. Even after the move, bitcoin remained roughly $18,000 below the $82,000 record it set in mid-May, underscoring how much ground the recent decline erased.

The recovery offered relief to leveraged traders after a brutal stretch of forced selling earlier in the month. Hundreds of thousands of positions were wiped out as the price slid, and a swift reversal of that kind often triggers a wave of short liquidations that amplifies the upside.

Geopolitics Back in the Driver’s Seat

Bitcoin’s sensitivity to Middle East headlines has been one of 2026’s defining patterns given that earlier in the year, the digital currency’s topped $77,000 as Trump weighed his options on Iran, while prediction-market wagers on a peace deal swelled into the hundreds of millions of dollars. De-escalation signals have repeatedly lifted risk appetite, and threats of conflict have pulled it back down.

Crypto tends to trade as a high-beta risk asset in these episodes, selling off harder than equities when fear spikes and rallying faster when it eases. That makes bitcoin an unusually sensitive barometer of how traders price the odds of war or peace, even when the headlines have no direct link to digital assets.

The same tensions had been a drag in recent weeks as higher oil prices tied to the standoff have fed inflation concerns and complicated the Federal Reserve’s rate path, with some officials declining to rule out further hikes and expected cuts being pushed back. That backdrop helped drag crypto lower before Sunday’s rebound.

Analysts caution that headline-driven rallies can fade quickly and only a confirmed agreement could sustain the move. Collapse in talks or a fresh exchange of fire risks sending the price back toward its recent floor. The Fed’s stance remains a second swing factor that could cap any extended recovery.

Three US citizens are in federal custody after the FBI arrested them on charges of conspiring to provide material support to ISIS, the designated foreign terrorist organization. The suspects allegedly attempted to use cryptocurrency to purchase weapons, including RPGs and drones, intended for attacks on US servicemembers overseas.

The arrests, carried out on June 5 and 6, mark another instance of law enforcement intercepting crypto-funded terrorism plots before they can materialize. The trio collectively transferred over $2,000 to an individual they believed was affiliated with ISIS, though they were stopped before any weapons purchases went through.

Who was arrested and what they’re accused of

The three defendants are Bisaam Ghafoor, 21, from Leawood, Kansas; Elias Shamsaldeen, 21, from Porterville, California; and Bereen Dzayee, 25, from Lakeside, California. All three face federal charges in the District of Kansas for conspiring to provide material support to terrorism.

According to the Department of Justice complaint, the suspects did more than just move money. They allegedly discussed violent attacks, pledged allegiance to ISIS, and actively sought to acquire military-grade hardware using digital assets. The weapons wish list reportedly included rocket-propelled grenades and drones, with the intended targets being US military personnel stationed abroad.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche framed the arrests as evidence of the government’s ongoing commitment to dismantling terrorist networks.

Crypto and terrorism financing: a persistent tension

No specific cryptocurrencies, tokens, or exchanges were identified in connection with the case. In previous terrorism financing cases involving crypto, prosecutors have sometimes named the platforms used, leading to increased regulatory scrutiny on those services.

The modest dollar amount involved, just over $2,000 split among three people, also distinguishes this case from larger-scale terrorism financing operations. The US Treasury’s Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence has previously targeted networks moving hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in crypto to militant groups.

What this means for crypto investors

The direct market impact of this particular case is effectively zero. The amount of money involved was negligible by any market standard, no specific tokens or platforms were implicated, and the plot was disrupted before it could produce any operational outcome.

Bitcoin capitulated below its 200-week moving average with a big red candle, trading at $62,495 as of Friday morning. Ethereum saw similar blood, and the altcoin sector in general collapsed further, even the outliers that were shining in previous weeks.

Meanwhile, the stock market continued its parabolic ascent, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all hitting new record levels yet again.

Traditional markets look unstoppable. The S&P 500 is on track for its longest weekly winning streak since 1985. But under the hood, folks like Jim Bianco worry that the entire rally is a one-trick pony. The concentration of money in AI is at historic highs. Space is hot too, led by the imminent SpaceX IPO, with fuel added to the fire by the likes of Fidelity. Even if the current software-focused AI trade cools off, the current trade could pivot heavily towards physical AI – robotics.

There are economic rumblings of discontent. Bernie Sanders has introduced the “American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act,” proposing to confiscate 50% of the equity in leading AI companies. The K-shaped economy is intensifying, with small businesses entirely left out of the recent uptick in hiring, marking the worst job outlook since May 2020. Pimco’s chief investment officer has warned that the first sustained credit default cycle in years has begun.

Against this backdrop, crypto is suffering a severe crisis of faith, tipped over the edge by the one-two punch of Saylor selling Bitcoin and the announcement that Zcash had a 4 year double-spend exploit. Here’s a good overview to understand the Zcash bug. In a bitter twist of fate, Taiki Maeda announced he had rotated heavily into Zcash (ZEC) because Saylor fumbled his thesis.

Sentiment was already low, but this bug and the subsequent ongoing price waterfalls is sending it lower, exacerbated by the divergence with equities. While the Nasdaq 100 hits fresh records fueled by AI, Bitcoin and crypto are cratering.

The on-chain data is ugly. Cycle-top buyers who held through the drawdown are finally capitulating, with Glassnode reporting that aggregated realized losses have spiked to $1.3B/day. Long-term bulls are openly stating they aren’t sure Bitcoin recovers this time, or lamenting the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin while the AI trade minted millionaires. The problems aren’t just price action; fundamental concerns are mounting, as outlined in a viral thread detailing Bitcoin’s current structural issues. Crypto tourists like Brent Johnson are contemplating scenarios where MicroStrategy (MSTR) drops to single-digit support levels.

There are glimmers of hope. DonAlt, the legendary duck, says he will buy “properly” if the weekly candle closes above $71K. That seems all but impossible now, but not in the next couple of weeks. Saifedean Ammous argues that the ultimate backstop remains intact: the narrative that nation-states will buy Bitcoin precisely because it is an asset that cannot be seized by foreign adversaries. The ZEC failure, and a failure all privacy coins suffer currently, strengthens Bitcoin’s primacy as the de facto digital asset store of value.

The altcoin market is faring worse, of course. Delphi Digital declared what we already knew: airdrops don’t work and only create sellers. Builders are exhausted. Algod took to X to voice his frustration with the Bittensor ecosystem, citing unclear conviction and iteration fatigue, while noting that he still holds nearly an ATH amount of TAO but feels his conviction is being seriously tested by a lack of builder incentives.

The old guard of projects are soldiering on. Ryan Sean Adams continues to argue that Ethereum’s value capture mechanism is its use as money—a SoV, MoE, or unit of account. Justin Drake released a long post on the Google quantum computing breakthrough that made many feel Ethereum’s got a great game plan vis-à-vis Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Charles Hoskinson had to clarify that he is not leaving Cardano after ADA dropped 94% back to 2020 levels, prompting critics to beg him to just stop talking.

In a perfect summation of the market’s current feeling, Carl The Moon is officially pivoting to a music career.

Despite the gloom, Hunter Horsley is right: there is a quiet changing of the guard underway in crypto.

The brightest spot is Hyperliquid. HYPE broke all-time highs, proving that tokens can actually perform if they don’t have horrendous tokenomics. Its perpetual volume market share versus centralized exchanges hit 7%. The success even caught the attention of tradfi royalty, with ICE’s Jeff Sprecher noting that it’s bigger than NASDAQ with only 11 people.

But not everyone is convinced. Kyle Samani declared that Hyperliquid is just “Binance 2.0” and will fail due to its centralized technical decisions. This triggered Arthur Hayes to challenge Mr. Samani to a $100k charity wager that HYPE outperforms any top-ten crypto.

Despite this belief in HYPE, Mr. Hayes went from proclaiming “$HYPE to $150”, only to completely dump his HYPE position four days later. In other negative HYPE news, the UK’s FCA published a warning designating Hyperliquid as an unauthorized firm.

Meanwhile in CEX land, Binance announced stock trading on its platform, prompting jokes of being a little late to the party. Coinbase made waves by backing Ethena with open market purchases of ENA.

Perhaps the most fascinating infrastructure shift is the maturity of prediction markets. They’re no longer just for degenerate gambling; they are being actively used for hedging. Rob Hadick notes the sheer volume of teams building sophisticated institutional tooling to place hedging contracts. In a great real-world application, an NYC bar used Kalshi to hedge giving away free drinks if the Knicks win.

Let’s end on some hopium. Chris Perkins pondered whether we might be entering an “alt fundamentals szn” where real product-market fit actually matters. And the hosts of Forward Guidance argued that the massive, concentrated profits currently locked in AI and semis could eventually rotate back to the comparatively starved crypto markets.

-David Sencil