This editorial is from this week’s edition of the newsletter Week in Review, sent to subscribers on Friday. Subscribe to the newsletter to get this weekly editorial the second it’s finished. The newsletter also includes the biggest stories of the week with a comment on each story.
Crypto
Bitcoin’s Stumble Looks Graceful Next to Zcash’s Faceplant — Week in Review
Bitcoin capitulated below its 200-week moving average with a big red candle, trading at $62,495 as of Friday morning. Ethereum saw similar blood, and the altcoin sector in general collapsed further, even the outliers that were shining in previous weeks.
Meanwhile, the stock market continued its parabolic ascent, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all hitting new record levels yet again.
Traditional markets look unstoppable. The S&P 500 is on track for its longest weekly winning streak since 1985. But under the hood, folks like Jim Bianco worry that the entire rally is a one-trick pony. The concentration of money in AI is at historic highs. Space is hot too, led by the imminent SpaceX IPO, with fuel added to the fire by the likes of Fidelity. Even if the current software-focused AI trade cools off, the current trade could pivot heavily towards physical AI – robotics.
There are economic rumblings of discontent. Bernie Sanders has introduced the “American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act,” proposing to confiscate 50% of the equity in leading AI companies. The K-shaped economy is intensifying, with small businesses entirely left out of the recent uptick in hiring, marking the worst job outlook since May 2020. Pimco’s chief investment officer has warned that the first sustained credit default cycle in years has begun.
Against this backdrop, crypto is suffering a severe crisis of faith, tipped over the edge by the one-two punch of Saylor selling Bitcoin and the announcement that Zcash had a 4 year double-spend exploit. Here’s a good overview to understand the Zcash bug. In a bitter twist of fate, Taiki Maeda announced he had rotated heavily into Zcash (ZEC) because Saylor fumbled his thesis.
Sentiment was already low, but this bug and the subsequent ongoing price waterfalls is sending it lower, exacerbated by the divergence with equities. While the Nasdaq 100 hits fresh records fueled by AI, Bitcoin and crypto are cratering.
The on-chain data is ugly. Cycle-top buyers who held through the drawdown are finally capitulating, with Glassnode reporting that aggregated realized losses have spiked to $1.3B/day. Long-term bulls are openly stating they aren’t sure Bitcoin recovers this time, or lamenting the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin while the AI trade minted millionaires. The problems aren’t just price action; fundamental concerns are mounting, as outlined in a viral thread detailing Bitcoin’s current structural issues. Crypto tourists like Brent Johnson are contemplating scenarios where MicroStrategy (MSTR) drops to single-digit support levels.
There are glimmers of hope. DonAlt, the legendary duck, says he will buy “properly” if the weekly candle closes above $71K. That seems all but impossible now, but not in the next couple of weeks. Saifedean Ammous argues that the ultimate backstop remains intact: the narrative that nation-states will buy Bitcoin precisely because it is an asset that cannot be seized by foreign adversaries. The ZEC failure, and a failure all privacy coins suffer currently, strengthens Bitcoin’s primacy as the de facto digital asset store of value.
The altcoin market is faring worse, of course. Delphi Digital declared what we already knew: airdrops don’t work and only create sellers. Builders are exhausted. Algod took to X to voice his frustration with the Bittensor ecosystem, citing unclear conviction and iteration fatigue, while noting that he still holds nearly an ATH amount of TAO but feels his conviction is being seriously tested by a lack of builder incentives.
The old guard of projects are soldiering on. Ryan Sean Adams continues to argue that Ethereum’s value capture mechanism is its use as money—a SoV, MoE, or unit of account. Justin Drake released a long post on the Google quantum computing breakthrough that made many feel Ethereum’s got a great game plan vis-à-vis Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Charles Hoskinson had to clarify that he is not leaving Cardano after ADA dropped 94% back to 2020 levels, prompting critics to beg him to just stop talking.
In a perfect summation of the market’s current feeling, Carl The Moon is officially pivoting to a music career.
Despite the gloom, Hunter Horsley is right: there is a quiet changing of the guard underway in crypto.
The brightest spot is Hyperliquid. HYPE broke all-time highs, proving that tokens can actually perform if they don’t have horrendous tokenomics. Its perpetual volume market share versus centralized exchanges hit 7%. The success even caught the attention of tradfi royalty, with ICE’s Jeff Sprecher noting that it’s bigger than NASDAQ with only 11 people.
But not everyone is convinced. Kyle Samani declared that Hyperliquid is just “Binance 2.0” and will fail due to its centralized technical decisions. This triggered Arthur Hayes to challenge Mr. Samani to a $100k charity wager that HYPE outperforms any top-ten crypto.
Despite this belief in HYPE, Mr. Hayes went from proclaiming “$HYPE to $150”, only to completely dump his HYPE position four days later. In other negative HYPE news, the UK’s FCA published a warning designating Hyperliquid as an unauthorized firm.
Meanwhile in CEX land, Binance announced stock trading on its platform, prompting jokes of being a little late to the party. Coinbase made waves by backing Ethena with open market purchases of ENA.
Perhaps the most fascinating infrastructure shift is the maturity of prediction markets. They’re no longer just for degenerate gambling; they are being actively used for hedging. Rob Hadick notes the sheer volume of teams building sophisticated institutional tooling to place hedging contracts. In a great real-world application, an NYC bar used Kalshi to hedge giving away free drinks if the Knicks win.
Let’s end on some hopium. Chris Perkins pondered whether we might be entering an “alt fundamentals szn” where real product-market fit actually matters. And the hosts of Forward Guidance argued that the massive, concentrated profits currently locked in AI and semis could eventually rotate back to the comparatively starved crypto markets.
-David Sencil
Crypto
4 arrested in Poland for SIM-swapping and cryptocurrency theft
Crypto
SpaceX Lands Nasdaq-100 Spot Weeks After Record IPO
Key Takeaways
- SpaceX is joining the Nasdaq-100 and FTSE Russell’s U.S. equity indexes less than a month after its record-breaking IPO.
- Index inclusion may increase fund demand, trading volume, and visibility among institutional investors.
- Shares have experienced volatility since listing.
SpaceX Inclusion Highlights Growing Influence of Aerospace Innovation in Major Market Benchmark
Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: SPCX), also known as SpaceX, will join the Nasdaq-100 Index before the market opens on July 7, 2026, Nasdaq announced on June 26. The addition places the aerospace company among the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
SpaceX’s inclusion follows its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, when the company debuted on the Nasdaq in what became the largest IPO in history. The aerospace and technology company priced its shares at $135, entering the market with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion. Shares opened at $150 and closed their first trading day at $160.95, valuing SpaceX at roughly $2.1 trillion, a milestone that made Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Nasdaq stated:
“Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: SPCX) will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on Tuesday, July 7, 2026.”
The company entered public markets after years of private growth, fueled by advancements in reusable rocket technology, satellite deployment, and its Starlink broadband network.
Since its record IPO, SpaceX shares have experienced notable volatility. SPCX climbed to an intraday high above $225 during its first week of trading before retreating. The stock later closed at $153.23 on June 26, remaining above its IPO price but trading near its opening level as early enthusiasm gave way to more measured trading.
Nasdaq-100 Tracks Major Non-Financial Companies Listed on the Exchange
The Nasdaq-100 measures the performance of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq and is widely followed by investors.
“The Nasdaq-100 Index — which measures the performance of 100 of the largest Nasdaq-listed non-financial companies — is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management globally,” the company noted, adding:
“Nasdaq Global Indexes publishes and maintains more than 10,000 indexes across asset classes and geographies.”
Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 can reshape trading activity, as index-tracking funds rebalance their portfolios to incorporate the new constituent. This process typically boosts trading volume and raises the company’s profile among institutional investors.
FTSE Russell is also adding SpaceX to its Russell U.S. equity indexes after Friday’s closing bell as part of its semi-annual reconstitution. The update requires passive funds tied to Russell benchmarks, including the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB), to add SPCX shares as the new index lineup takes effect.
SpaceX’s rapid inclusion in major benchmarks reflects its large market value and strong trading activity, both key factors for index eligibility. Being added to widely followed indexes can also lead to increased demand for shares, as funds that track these benchmarks must buy stock in newly included companies.
Crypto
CLARITY Act Needs 60 Votes and 7 Democrats as GOP Races the August Recess Clock
Key Takeaways
Pressure Builds as the Legislative Window Narrows
The push was reported by Eleanor Terrett, host of “ Crypto in America,” who said GOP lawmakers are increasingly anxious to move the bill once senators return from their break. She tied the renewed sense of urgency to heightened political pressure following the fallout from a contentious housing bill, as well as a growing realization that time is running short. She further added:
“Pressure and time constraints could ultimately create the conditions needed to strike a deal.”
Lawmakers and analysts broadly agree that the Senate must act before August for the legislation to have a realistic shot this year. The CLARITY Act would establish a federal framework dividing oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It is a long-sought goal for an industry that has complained for years about regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. The House of Representatives passed its version of the measure in 2025.
From the outside looking in, the arithmetic seems to be a central hurdle as Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, which means the bill needs at least seven Democratic votes to overcome the 60-vote cloture threshold and reach a final floor vote. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in a 15-9 vote in May, placing it on the calendar but leaving the floor fight unresolved.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has set an end-of-July target and warned that missing the window could push enforceable digital-asset rules to 2030. Reporting indicates that the House is prepared to move quickly to reconcile the two versions if the Senate passes its bill before the recess, with the lower chamber scheduling back-to-back hearings in July touching on crypto policy.
Industry pressure has also intensified, with more than 200 organizations, including Coinbase and Ripple, urging Senate leaders to bring the bill to the floor. A separate coalition representing over 1,200 technology companies has pressed for swift passage as U.S. crypto rules face mounting global competition. Groups of former national security officials and crypto founders have added their names to the mix as well in recent weeks.
That said, not everyone is on board with these developments, and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, recently argued that the bill in its current form could “blow up the economy.” That opposition is part of why supporters need to peel off a handful of Democrats to reach 60 votes.
What Comes Next
The next step is a Senate floor vote, where the bill’s bipartisan support will face its broadest test. Even if it clears that hurdle, the Senate text would still need to be reconciled with the House’s 2025 version before anything could reach the president’s desk.
As things stand, the August recess functions as a hard deadline in the minds of the bill’s backers. The post-recess stretch runs into an election-year calendar that supporters fear could stall momentum, which is why several lawmakers describe the coming weeks as the bill’s best and possibly final opening this Congress.
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