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US Dollar Keeps Falling as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle Investors

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US Dollar Keeps Falling as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle Investors

The U.S. dollar extended its slide against other major currencies on Monday, the latest sign that investors may be starting to shun what has long been the safest haven in global financial markets.

An index that tracks the dollar against a basket of major trading partners fell for a fifth straight day, even as U.S. stocks and bonds rallied. The dollar has fallen by roughly 8 percent this year, trading near a three-year low.

There has been a particularly steep decline since President Trump announced tariffs on nearly every country’s imports a few weeks ago. The dollar has lost value against the euro, the yen, the pound and a host of other currencies, making imports from those countries more expensive for Americans, even before tariffs are applied.

Investors and many of Mr. Trump’s advisers had expected the dollar to strengthen as tariffs were put in place, given the conventional wisdom that the levies would discourage Americans from purchasing imported goods and in turn reduce the demand for foreign currency. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, argued that the dollar’s appreciation would be significant enough to offset a rise in inflation.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Mr. Bessent sought to push back on concerns about the recent weakening of the dollar, saying it was still “strong” and the “global reserve currency.”

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But the magnitude of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has announced has been more substantial than many expected, unleashing turbulence acute enough to raise questions about whether U.S. assets have lost their luster. On multiple days in recent weeks, when the dollar was selling off, so were U.S. stocks and government bonds, a combination that Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, described as “rare, ugly and worrying.”

In part, the turmoil reflects the confusion about Mr. Trump’s plans for tariffs. Mixed messages about exemptions and pauses, and which products and countries might be hit with new tariffs, have rattled investors who have long seen dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds as the surest thing in finance.

“Both institutional investors and central banks are having to begin to think about what would happen should the dollar and the Treasury market no longer be the safe haven,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM.

Sharp moves in the value of the dollar can have a destabilizing effect on the global economy, because it serves as a central pillar of the financial system. The dollar is on one side of nearly 90 percent of all foreign-exchange trades, according to the Bank for International Settlements, from Americans abroad using their credit cards to large corporations making billion-dollar takeovers. Essential commodities, like oil, are also typically priced in dollars, regardless of who is buying or selling.

Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who previously worked at the Treasury Department, said there were reasons not to read too much into the dollar’s sell-off.

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For nearly a decade, U.S. assets have been among the best performers in the world — consider the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a series of record highs.

“A lot of the money coming into the U.S. hasn’t been coming to the U.S. seeking safety. It’s been coming to the U.S. seeking yield and chasing the run-up in U.S. equities,” he said.

“In that context,” he added, “when there’s a general move to reduce risk — because the world certainly seems a lot riskier after Trump’s tariff announcement — some of that money that was betting on U.S. outperformance and the U.S. continuing to offer outsized returns is being unwound.”

Economists now see much higher odds of a recession in the United States because of escalating trade tensions. That may mean the Fed will be compelled at some point to start lowering interest rates to protect the labor market. Lower rates make holding dollar-denominated assets less appealing, which could put more pressure on the currency. While the bar for future cuts appears high given that inflation is poised to rise as growth slows, signs that the economy is hurtling toward a recession could change the central bank’s approach.

If that transpired, Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, would support cutting rates “sooner and to a greater extent” than initially expected, he said on Monday. In a speech, he also acknowledged the turbulence caused by Mr. Trump’s tariffs, saying it was an “understatement to say that financial markets did not respond well” to them.

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The dollar would be destabilized further if Mr. Trump sought to undermine the independence of the Fed, which sets interest rates free from political influence. Mr. Bessent said on Monday that monetary policy was a “jewel box that’s got to be preserved.”

Mr. Trump will have a chance to pick a new chair of the Fed after Jerome H. Powell’s term expires in May 2026. The administration will begin that process in the fall, Mr. Bessent said.

But even Mr. Setser acknowledged that there might be something more fundamentally worrying to the dollar’s slide than simply a shift in expectations about the economic outlook.

“It is not crazy to think that after a period of exceptional policy volatility in the United States and with real risk of recession, that some foreign investors might wonder whether they should continue to put an ever increasing amount of money into the United States,” he said.

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Major Kaiser Permanente strike in California to end after ‘significant movement’ in talks

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Major Kaiser Permanente strike in California to end after ‘significant movement’ in talks

A major work stoppage that has agitated the nation’s largest not-for-profit medical provider for nearly a month is set to end following productive negotiations, labor leaders said Monday.

The healthcare union representing the 31,000 workers involved in the strike said there had been “significant movement” at the bargaining table over the weekend, and as a result, union leaders decided to notify Kaiser that workers would return to hospitals and healthcare facilities at 7 a.m. Tuesday.

“[R]eturning members to their patients and their livelihoods is the clearest path to securing a final agreement and building on the progress achieved during the strike,” the United Nurses Assns. of California/Union of Health Care Professionals, or UNAC/UHCP, said in a statement Monday.

Kaiser spokesperson Terry Kanakri said the union had accepted a pay proposal the company made in the fall, and called the movement in negotiations “good progress.”

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“We are working with our teams to schedule returning employees over the coming days in an orderly way that protects patient safety and minimizes any disruption,” Kanakri wrote in an email.

Tens of thousands of Kaiser Permanente workers, including registered nurses, nurse anesthetists, pharmacists, midwives, physician assistants, rehab therapists, speech language pathologists, dietitians and other specialty healthcare professionals, walked off the job Jan. 26 in an open-ended strike.

The union launched the strike amid stalled contract negotiations, and over allegations it filed in a federal unfair labor practice charge that Kaiser had unlawfully undermined negotiations and attempted to intimidate workers by warning them about the consequences of striking and directing their peers to report union activity to management.

UNAC/UHCP said the healthcare system had neglected discussions over employee burnout and patient safety and unilaterally halted bargaining in mid-December. Kaiser ended talks both with a national coalition of unions representing Kaiser workers — called the Alliance of Health Care Unions, which usually leads negotiations on wages — as well as with local chapters, which preside over bargaining on scheduling and other contract terms specific to union members’ various regions and roles.

The Alliance of Health Care Unions counts some 62,000 Kaiser workers across 23 local unions among its members. UNAC/UHCP, which represents workers in California and Hawaii, is the alliance’s largest unit.

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Bargaining over local contracts soon resumed after the lull, with UNAC/UHCP saying in recent days that “real progress” had been made and many “conceptual agreements reached” in negotiations over 15 local agreements covering thousands of healthcare workers.

Kaiser had previously called the strike “unnecessary” and filed a lawsuit in January days before it was set to begin. In the lawsuit, Kaiser argued that UNAC/UHCP was not acting in good faith and accused the union of attempting “to coerce concessions” by compiling and threatening to release a report describing alleged unethical and unsafe practices by the company.

The report noted that the Oakland-based healthcare system’s corporate pension, Kaiser Permanente Group Trust, holds assets in CoreCivic and the GEO Group, the two largest for-profit prison corporations in the U.S. After the report’s release in mid-January, state Assemblymember Liz Ortega (D-San Leandro) introduced Assembly Bill 1799, which would require nonprofit health plans that receive significant state subsidies to disclose direct and indirect investments, including holdings tied to private prisons and immigrant detention.

Kaiser did not respond to a request for comment regarding its stance on the bill.

Anjetta Thackeray, a spokesperson for UNAC/UHCP, said Monday that Kaiser had yet to resume negotiations with the national bargaining table and that there were still many issues to resolve. But she said that because the union had “succeeded in bringing back serious negotiations,” it was important to get “members back to caring for patients and serving communities.”

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“The statement had been made. … Members were able to shine a light on some issues,” Thackeray said. “We can’t call [the talks] closed just yet, but they are very, very close.”

A flashpoint had been the union’s request for raises of 25% over four years, arguing that the wage boosts are necessary to compensate for the far smaller increases workers received following previous contract negotiations in 2021, when they received a 2% raise in the first year. Kaiser said it had proposed 21.5% wage increases in October, describing it as its “strongest national bargaining offer ever.”

Kanakri, the Kaiser spokesperson, said the union had now accepted its 21.5% wage increase, and that the company had said for months that was the maximum amount it could offer.

Thackeray said she couldn’t yet provide details on pay or other agreements reached.

The cooling down in labor tensions comes even as other Kaiser workers pursue work stoppages.

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About 2,400 mental health therapists, social workers and psychologists for Kaiser patients in the Bay Area, Central Valley and Sacramento, for example, announced Monday they had authorized a one-day strike — citing issues with the way Kaiser triages its mental health patients, using telephone operators and artificial intelligence instead of human therapists. A strike date has not yet been scheduled.

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Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs leaves Mexico in cautious wait-and-see mode

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Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs leaves Mexico in cautious wait-and-see mode

Mexico’s secretary of the economy, Marcelo Ebrard, urged “prudence” Friday in the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidating part of President Trump’s sweeping tariff regimen.

“We have to see where this is going,” Ebrard told reporters. “We have to see what measures [Washington] is going to take to figure out how it is going to affect our country. “

Amid widespread concern about tariffs in Mexico — the United States’ major commercial partner, with almost $1 trillion in annual two-way trade — Ebrard cautioned: “I tell you to put yourselves in zen mode. As tranquil as possible.”

Across the globe, nations were assessing how the high court’s ruling might affect them. Some world leaders expressed relief or satisfaction with Friday’s decision.

“The justices have shown that even a US president does not operate in a legal vacuum. Legal boundaries have been set, the era of unlimited, arbitrary tariffs may now be coming to an end,” Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee, wrote on X.

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Also writing on X, Canada’s trade minister, Dominic LeBlanc, referred to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Trump administration used to impose tariffs: “The United States Supreme Court’s decision reinforces Canada’s position that the IEEPA tariffs imposed by the United States are unjustified.”

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, when asked about the tariffs, said, “We’ll review the resolution carefully and then gladly give our opinion.”

Ebrard said he plans to travel to the United States next week to clarify matters.

Last year, Ebrard noted, Mexico managed to stave off Trump’s threats to impose a 25% across-the-board levy on all Mexican imports.

However, Mexico has been pushing back against Trump administration tariffs on imports of vehicles, steel and aluminum, among other products.

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Among other impacts, the Supreme Court voided so-called fentanyl tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada. The Trump administration said it imposed those levies to force the three nations to crack down on trafficking of the deadly synthetic opioid.

In the aftermath of Friday’s ruling, Trump said he planned to seek alternative legal avenues to impose now-stricken tariffs.

About 85% of Mexican exports to the United States are exempt from tariffs because of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The accord extended a mostly free-trade regimen among the three nations, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The three-way pact is scheduled for joint review starting July 1. That date marks six years since the agreement was signed during the first Trump presidential term.

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This company tries to recycle the really difficult plastics

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This company tries to recycle the really difficult plastics

A start-up recycling company has a message for its potential, environmentally conscious customers: Don’t send your problem garbage to the landfill; put it on your front porch.

The company is Ridwell, and if you drive the residential streets of the San Francisco Bay Area or Los Angeles, you’re likely to see the company’s signature white metal boxes on porches.

The boxes are for empty tortilla chip and plastic produce bags, used clothing, light bulbs and batteries. In some locations, polystyrene peanuts. All the things you’re not supposed to put in the blue recycle bin, but wish you could.

The Seattle-based waste service is geared toward people who worry their waste will end up in the landfill, or get exported to a developing country in Asia. They sort their waste into colorfully labeled canvas bags the company provides, and wait for a Ridwell pickup.

“Sorting is our special sauce,” said Gerrine Pan, the company’s vice president of partnerships. Part of the reason the company is successful at finding markets — or buyers — for its waste, she said, is that it’s sorted and pretty clean (unlike the food-contaminated jumble of waste that gets stuffed in many blue bins).

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The company promises to distribute all that waste to specialty recyclers, manufacturers, even thrift shops.

Bagged recyclables sit in boxes at the Ridwell warehouse in San Leandro.

But critics say the boutique waste hauler is not accomplishing anything environmentally useful and is selling the public a myth: that these plastics — multilayer plastic film, plastic bags, polystyrene — can be taken care of responsibly. The service would be benign, they say, if it stuck to the delivery of materials, such as light bulbs and batteries, that can be recycled.

Most local waste haulers don’t accept batteries and light bulbs because they can pose a hazard to workers and equipment.

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The base Ridwell membership is $20 a month. For that, a driver will come by every two weeks and take the presorted bags to a warehouse where they’re emptied, the contents stacked and collected, until there’s enough to deliver to a facility that will take it.

In this composite image, various recyclable items

Sorted recyclable items await transport at the Ridwell central warehouse.

Company lore is that founder Ryan Metzger and his son were frustrated that so many things weren’t accepted by their local hauler for recycling. The two sat down and researched where to take the stuff, then decided to scale up and serve their neighbors.

The company has since expanded to Vancouver, Wash.; Portland, Ore.; San Francisco; Los Angeles; Denver; Austin, Texas; Minneapolis and Atlanta. It now boasts more than 130,000 customers nationwide.

Most of the waste is delivered locally. But some of it travels hundreds, if not thousands of miles.

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For instance, multilayer plastic bags — those that hold snack chips, candy and coffee beans — are the scourge of municipal garbage haulers because they cannot be recycled, and if put in the blue bins, can damage mechanical sorting machines. Ridwell, however, found Hydroblox, a company that melts the multilayer films into hard, plastic bricks that can be used for drainage projects in landscaping and road construction.

But this arrangement highlights some of the limitations of the nascent industry. Hydroblox owner Ed Greiser said he can take only so many chip bags. The company is growing, but it’s still pretty small, and he’s typically maxed out on the bags.

Workers sift through recyclables

Ridwell workers sift through recyclables.

“This article is going to be a nightmare for me,” he told a Times reporter, because it’s likely to attract a parade of unsolicited garbage trucks looking to dump their bags. “I’m not the solution.”

In addition, Greiser’s two facilities are in Pennsylvania, more than 2,700 miles from most West Coast pickup points, a steep transportation cost for a plastic bag that could instead go 20 miles to a local landfill.

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Ridwell also has recently expanded to serve customers outside its pickup cities. It sends special plastic bags to these far-flung subscribers so they can sort their waste and ship it back.

Again, critics say the company’s decision to operate a service that is dependent on plastic bags and requires extensive transport undermines their environmental bona fides. And they worry that a narrative suggesting all waste can be dealt with responsibly is false and misleading. That misconception, they say, contributes to the glut of plastic piling up in our rivers and oceans, and inside our bodies.

“There is typically a reason why a given product isn’t being recycled through curbside collection, and it usually isn’t for lack of effort by cities and counties,” said Nick Lapis, director of advocacy for Californians Against Waste. “Most of the material being collected by boutique collection services like Ridwell are either very difficult to manage or lack strong recycling markets.”

Manufacturers of plastic packaging, not consumers, should pay for recycling products and packaging at the end of their life, he said. For regular people, “having to pay an extra fee to handle the unrecyclable plastic packaging that is thrust upon us every day is antithetical to every concept of producer responsibility.”

Earlier this month, the anti-plastic group Beyond Plastics published a disparaging report on boutique waste haulers, including Ridwell, accusing them of providing cover for plastic and packaging manufacturers who want people to believe their waste is being recycled.

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a Ridwell employee inserts a bag of recyclables into a compressing machine

A Ridwell employee inserts a bag of recyclables into a bailer at the San Leandro warehouse.

Ridwell offered a visitor a tour of its Bay Area warehouse in San Leandro. The spacious facility behind a Home Depot and Walmart was crowded with steel drums filled with alternating layers of batteries and fire-retardant pellets, boxes of light bulbs and piles of used clothes, all destined for recyclers, upcyclers and thrift stores.

While the public may think of recycling as a largely physical process, it’s actually a market: a function of how well a material can be profitably turned into something else.

Wearable fabrics are seen in boxes and bins awaiting transport

Boxes of clothing await transport.

Metzger, Ridwell’s chief executive, said some of the material his company collects can be sold. Some of it is given away, “and some we pay to have responsibly processed.” The more technically challenging the plastic, the more likely Ridwell will have to pay to deal with it, he said.

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He said the company vets all the places it sends its waste, giving preference to those that use items a second time over those that melt them down or shred them to make them into something else. It also gives preference to partners that are local.

He said his company is “careful not to present plastic recycling as a cure-all,” and it turns away some materials, for example vinyl shower curtains, “because we don’t have a downstream partner we can stand behind.”

And while Metzger agrees with many of Beyond Plastic’s concerns, he has observed that “when customers actively sort and see which items require special handling, it often increases their awareness of where plastic waste is coming from in their own lives … [leading] them to change purchasing habits and avoid certain packaging altogether.”

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