Business
US Dollar Keeps Falling as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle Investors
The U.S. dollar extended its slide against other major currencies on Monday, the latest sign that investors may be starting to shun what has long been the safest haven in global financial markets.
An index that tracks the dollar against a basket of major trading partners fell for a fifth straight day, even as U.S. stocks and bonds rallied. The dollar has fallen by roughly 8 percent this year, trading near a three-year low.
There has been a particularly steep decline since President Trump announced tariffs on nearly every country’s imports a few weeks ago. The dollar has lost value against the euro, the yen, the pound and a host of other currencies, making imports from those countries more expensive for Americans, even before tariffs are applied.
Investors and many of Mr. Trump’s advisers had expected the dollar to strengthen as tariffs were put in place, given the conventional wisdom that the levies would discourage Americans from purchasing imported goods and in turn reduce the demand for foreign currency. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, argued that the dollar’s appreciation would be significant enough to offset a rise in inflation.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Mr. Bessent sought to push back on concerns about the recent weakening of the dollar, saying it was still “strong” and the “global reserve currency.”
But the magnitude of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has announced has been more substantial than many expected, unleashing turbulence acute enough to raise questions about whether U.S. assets have lost their luster. On multiple days in recent weeks, when the dollar was selling off, so were U.S. stocks and government bonds, a combination that Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, described as “rare, ugly and worrying.”
In part, the turmoil reflects the confusion about Mr. Trump’s plans for tariffs. Mixed messages about exemptions and pauses, and which products and countries might be hit with new tariffs, have rattled investors who have long seen dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds as the surest thing in finance.
“Both institutional investors and central banks are having to begin to think about what would happen should the dollar and the Treasury market no longer be the safe haven,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM.
Sharp moves in the value of the dollar can have a destabilizing effect on the global economy, because it serves as a central pillar of the financial system. The dollar is on one side of nearly 90 percent of all foreign-exchange trades, according to the Bank for International Settlements, from Americans abroad using their credit cards to large corporations making billion-dollar takeovers. Essential commodities, like oil, are also typically priced in dollars, regardless of who is buying or selling.
Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who previously worked at the Treasury Department, said there were reasons not to read too much into the dollar’s sell-off.
For nearly a decade, U.S. assets have been among the best performers in the world — consider the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a series of record highs.
“A lot of the money coming into the U.S. hasn’t been coming to the U.S. seeking safety. It’s been coming to the U.S. seeking yield and chasing the run-up in U.S. equities,” he said.
“In that context,” he added, “when there’s a general move to reduce risk — because the world certainly seems a lot riskier after Trump’s tariff announcement — some of that money that was betting on U.S. outperformance and the U.S. continuing to offer outsized returns is being unwound.”
Economists now see much higher odds of a recession in the United States because of escalating trade tensions. That may mean the Fed will be compelled at some point to start lowering interest rates to protect the labor market. Lower rates make holding dollar-denominated assets less appealing, which could put more pressure on the currency. While the bar for future cuts appears high given that inflation is poised to rise as growth slows, signs that the economy is hurtling toward a recession could change the central bank’s approach.
If that transpired, Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, would support cutting rates “sooner and to a greater extent” than initially expected, he said on Monday. In a speech, he also acknowledged the turbulence caused by Mr. Trump’s tariffs, saying it was an “understatement to say that financial markets did not respond well” to them.
The dollar would be destabilized further if Mr. Trump sought to undermine the independence of the Fed, which sets interest rates free from political influence. Mr. Bessent said on Monday that monetary policy was a “jewel box that’s got to be preserved.”
Mr. Trump will have a chance to pick a new chair of the Fed after Jerome H. Powell’s term expires in May 2026. The administration will begin that process in the fall, Mr. Bessent said.
But even Mr. Setser acknowledged that there might be something more fundamentally worrying to the dollar’s slide than simply a shift in expectations about the economic outlook.
“It is not crazy to think that after a period of exceptional policy volatility in the United States and with real risk of recession, that some foreign investors might wonder whether they should continue to put an ever increasing amount of money into the United States,” he said.
Business
Costco sues Trump administration to pause tariffs, refund payments
Costco is suing the Trump administration, seeking a full refund of the import taxes it paid under President Trump’s executive orders earlier this year.
The discount retailer, a big importer, wants the U.S. government to stop imposing tariffs on goods Costco brings into the country until the Supreme Court weighs in on the legality of executive orders.
According to the lawsuit filed Friday with the United States Court of International Trade, Costco wants the court to declare that the president lacks authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to set tariffs, and has challenged the tariff orders as unlawful.
Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods. Traditionally, tariffs are levied after getting congressional approval, but in February, Trump invoked a 1977 “national emergency” law — used for sanctions — to issue global tariff orders, bypassing the traditional process.
The Supreme Court is now deliberating the legality of the tariff orders.
“Whether Costco is successful through its lawsuit in getting compensated for the tariffs that it has already paid on its imports really depends on the Supreme Court’s decision on whether the president has the legal authority to impose tariffs,” said Devashish Mitra, a professor of economics and global affairs at Syracuse University.
Costco is the latest in a growing list of businesses, including motorcycle maker Kawasaki, beauty product maker Revlon and others that are suing the Trump administration for refunds if the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s economic policy.
While there could be valid national security reasons under which the president has authority to set tariffs, tariffs on imports such as shirts or sheets are inappropriate and illegal, critics say.
“A blanket tariff on all types of imports from a country or several countries with a single stroke of the president’s pen will be very difficult, if not impossible, if other bases for tariffs are invoked,” Mitra said.
About a third of Costco’s U.S. sales come from imported goods, with major sources being China, Canada and Mexico.
In its suit, Costco highlighted that most imports from China faced a minimum 145% tariff, which has impacted its orders.
Trump has boasted that tariffs helped reduce the trade deficit, and as of October, brought in $205 billion in revenue for the federal government in 2025.
The policies have disrupted the retail sector and thrown every industry, from retailers to toymakers, into disarray.
Some have attempted to rework supply chains to source domestically or from countries not impacted by tariffs to keep costs low, while others are compelled to introduce products at cheaper price points for buyers to afford.
Companies are passing the costs onto consumers. Some are absorbing part of the additional costs and taking a hit to their profit to avoid raising retail prices too much.
Prices began rising immediately after the broader tariff measures were announced in early March and continued to increase gradually over subsequent months, with imported goods rising roughly twice as much as domestic ones, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
“We are going to do everything we can to mitigate tariff impacts,” Ron Vachris, CEO of Costco, said in a September earnings call. “The last effect would be we pass on price. If we do that, we are going to be the last one to go up and always [be] the first one to go down in any opportunities we have out there.”
Business
Commentary: These federal judges are building a legal wall against Trump’s assault on transgender rights
President Trump wasted no time before turning the right wing’s cherished assault on transgender rights into government policy.
On the very day of his inauguration, he issued an executive order titled, “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.”
The order purported to “recognize two sexes, male and female,” as federal policy. “These sexes are not changeable,” it stated. It labeled “gender ideology” and “gender identity” as a “false claim.”
Congress never authorized a roving mandate to regulate and alter state-licensed medical care.
— U.S. Judge Mark Kearney of Philadelphia
The order directed federal agencies to “remove all statements, policies, regulations, forms, communications, or other internal and external messages that promote or otherwise inculcate gender ideology.”
About a week later, Trump posted an order banning federal spending on gender-affirming therapies for children, which he defined as “mutilation” based on “junk science.”
Under Atty Gen. Pam Bondi, Trump’s Justice Department took action. On July 9, Bondi boasted of having sent “more than 20 subpoenas to doctors and clinics involved in performing transgender medical procedures on children.”
In her news release, Bondi said the subpoenas targeted “medical professionals and organizations that mutilated children in the service of a warped ideology.”
That’s when Trump’s campaign ran into a judicial brick wall. In recent weeks at least three federal judges blocked some of these subpoenas as flagrantly illicit overreach.
At least two questioned the DOJ’s actions in these cases, with one warning that a federal official’s inaccurate declaration could be interpreted as perjury. Another implied that a DOJ filing in his courtroom might have reflected “deliberate misuse … of court procedure.” (I am indebted to Chris Geidner of Lawdork.com for pulling these facts together.)
These cases raise questions about the professionalism of Trump’s DOJ that have been raised by other federal courts on other topics. Those include the invalidation of the appointments of three U.S. Attorneys put in place to pursue criminal charges against Trump’s political enemies, and the rejection by grand juries of indictments proposed by Trump-appointed prosecutors.
“The Department has defeated many of these lawsuits all the way up to the Supreme Court and will continue to defend the President’s agenda with the utmost professionalism,” a DOJ spokeswoman told me by email.
The transgender cases may have a more personal effect on millions of struggling youths and families. As I’ve written, the Trumpian hand-wringing over the “mutilation” of children via gender-affirming therapy or surgery melds medical ignorance with fantasy.
Therapies such as puberty blockers or hormone treatments typically are administered to minors only after painstaking medical consultations, and actual surgeries aren’t commonly performed on minors by reputable medical providers.
Trump made an assault on transgender treatments a plank in his campaign platform, spinning a weird claim that schools had been subjecting innocent children to secret operations. “The school decides what’s gonna happen with your child,” he said. “And you know, many of these childs [sic] 15 years later say, ‘What the hell happened? Who did this to me?’” None of that happens in the real world.
After the Supreme Court invalidated bans on same-sex marriage in 2015, Republican strategists found “the struggle over trans rights” to be “an especially potent wedge issue,” observes political scientist Paisley Currah, a professor of women’s and gender studies at Brooklyn College, in a new report in the New York Review of Books.
Their target, Currah writes, is “a very small proportion of the population (roughly 2.8 million people above the age of thirteen), not well understood by most Americans, living in ways that confounded common assumptions about sex.”
For the most part, this war has unfolded at the state level. North Carolina passed its notorious “bathroom bill,” requiring residents to use only the bathrooms designated for the sex on their birth certificates, in 2016. The measure drew widespread threats of boycotts by sports leagues and corporations, prompting its repeal the following year.
Legislators soon found an approach more tolerable for the public: banning transgender women from participating in women’s sports. In 2015 there were 21 antitrans bills introduced in state legislatures; in 2025 there were more than 1,000.
In June the Supreme Court’s six-member conservative majority appeared to bless this approach by turning away a challenge to a Tennessee law that bans puberty blockers and hormones for trans youth, even when parents and physicians prescribe them. With this ruling, Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote in a ringing dissent, “the Court abandons transgender patients and their families to political whims.”
She might have added that Trump’s intimidation works. Medical providers coast-to-coast, including Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C., and Kaiser Permanente, ended gender-affirming care for minors to avoid legal hassles; some institutions even ended such care for adults, although that care isn’t targeted by the government.
None of that means that there aren’t guardrails on the federal antitrans campaign, which brings us back to the judges placing a collar on the DOJ.
In the most recent ruling issued Nov. 21, federal Judge Mark Kearney of Philadelphia took aim at subpoenas Bondi served on Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Purporting to be investigating the mislabeling and misuse of puberty blockers and hormones, the DOJ demanded the hospital’s “billing and insurance records, communications with manufacturers and sales representatives, and the names and complete medical and psychological records of children receiving gender-affirming care,” Kearney wrote.
The hospital acceded to most of this request, but did not provide the identities of its child patients and their families and their confidential medical files.
Kearney quashed those subpoenas, ruling that the privacy rights of the children and their families “substantially outweighs” the DOJ’s “need to know the children’s names, addresses, and treatment.”
Kearney noted that federal law left questions about medical care entirely to the states; policy disagreements such as those pitting the DOJ against the hospital are not federal crimes. “Congress never authorized a roving mandate to regulate and alter state-licensed medical care,” he wrote.
He also focused on a declaration filed in court on Oct. 6 by DOJ official Lisa K. Hsiao, stating that “the government is aware of a lawsuit filed just this year” with “allegations of a minor being put on puberty blockers after his first visit and cross-sex hormones after his second with no meaningful assessment.”
As it happens, there is no such lawsuit. The day after Hsaio’s declaration was filed “under penalty of perjury,” Kearney observed, it was withdrawn and replaced with one that removed the reference to a lawsuit and substituted the claim that the government was aware only of “concerning allegations” about the treatment.
The hospital said in court that it hadn’t been served with any such lawsuit. Kearney questioned “the veracity of Director Hsiao’s sworn statements” and noted that DOJ lawyers agreed with him that “false statements may be subject to a perjury investigation.”
Kearney’s ruling followed one issued Sept. 9 by federal Judge Myong Joun of Boston. Joun quashed the entire subpoena issued to Boston Children’s Hospital seeking extensive information about its personnel and medical records of patients, including their Social Security numbers and home addresses.
“It is abundantly clear,” he wrote, that the administration’s “true purpose” is to interfere with the state’s right to authorize gender-affirming care, “to harass and intimidate BCH to stop providing such care, and to dissuade patients from seeking such care.”
In the third case, federal Judge Jamal Whitehead of Seattle on Oct. 27 threw out a subpoena the government served on QueerDoc, a telehealth provider serving patients in the West. The subpoena demanded complete personnel files for all QueerDoc employees and all private information about patients for whom it prescribed puberty blockers or hormones.
Whitehead concluded that the subpoena — compounded by Bondi’s news release — was aimed “not to investigate legal violations but to intimidate and coerce providers into abandoning lawful medical care.” (Emphasis his.)
Whitehead also found that a legal filing in which the DOJ cited legal gounds for the subpoena “represents a fundamental misunderstanding — or deliberate misuse — of court procedure”: Filings of its kind generally were used to correct minor clerical errors in a previously filed document, he noted, not for making new legal arguments after the deadline. In this case the filing underscored that the government was targeting “the provision of gender-affirming care itself, not any legitimate federal violation.”
The government appealed the Joun and Whitehead rulings though not, as yet, Kearney’s action. The battle to protect treatment for transgender youths is plainly not over.
Business
With new bids, Warner Bros. Discovery looks to narrow the auction field
Warner Bros. Discovery’s winnowing of bidders is expected to accelerate this week.
Monday marks the deadline for a second round of proposals, which Warner’s board members anticipate will bring sweetened bids from the three rivals vying for the prize. Comcast, Paramount and Netflix each submitted initial nonbinding offers last month, forming the auction’s floor.
Warner bankers privately have signaled to the interested parties that this round may not be the final flex, but they do anticipate that Monday’s bids will help them zero in on a preferred merger partner, according to people close to the process who were not authorized to comment.
Warner Bros. Discovery hopes to make its pick before the winter holidays begin.
“The global media industry stands at the precipice of historic transformation,” Bank of America media analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich and three colleagues wrote in a Monday research report.
The sale of Warner Bros. would represent Hollywood’s biggest consolidation since a buying spree that began 30 years ago with Walt Disney Co.’s purchase of Capital Cities, which owned ABC and ESPN. That era was capped by Time Warner’s ill-fated sale in the early 2000s to dial-up internet service provider AOL — a disastrous union that plundered the value of Warner’s prestigious properties. It took more than a decade for the company to recover.
Since then, Netflix, Amazon and Apple have swarmed the field, ushering in a streaming revolution that has dramatically altered consumer behavior, leaving the entertainment industry’s financial foundation — bulky cable TV bundles and blockbuster theatrical releases — on shaky legs.
Warner’s current bidding war “reflects the economic reality … that mid-sized legacy media studios/companies can no longer compete with the unit economics of Netflix or the ecosystem of large tech players such as Amazon,” the Bank of America analysts wrote.
They said the Larry Ellison family’s Paramount and Comcast’s NBCUniversal may feel the need to bulk up, prompting both to claw for Warner’s assets, which include the Warner Bros. film and television studios in Burbank, premium channel HBO and streaming service HBO Max.
Representatives of Warner, Paramount, Comcast and Netflix declined to comment.
Paramount is seen as most likely to prevail, given the Ellison family’s vast wealth and political connections.
President Trump considers Larry Ellison among his friends, which could ensure a smooth regulatory review process with the Justice Department. The president has indicated he wants to see Ellison control CBS — currently under the Paramount-Skydance umbrella — and CNN, which is owned by Warner Bros. Discovery.
Paramount offers the most efficient takeover as it has expressed interest in buying all of Warner, including its cable channels, which include TBS, TNT, HGTV, Food Network and Animal Planet. Tech scion and Paramount Chairman David Ellison informally kicked off the bidding in September, making three offers by mid-October.
But Warner’s board rejected all three proposals, considering them to be too low. The company then opened the process to other bidders, allowing Comcast and Netflix to join the field.
Ellison recently visited oil-rich Middle Eastern countries, holding preliminary talks with sovereign-wealth funds about potentially investing should Paramount win the Warner auction, according to two knowledgeable sources.
Warner Bros. Discovery shares inched up less than 1% to $23.87 on Monday.
Some analysts expect a surge from Comcast, which is controlled by Philadelphia cable mogul Brian Roberts.
Warner Bros. Discovery Chief Executive David Zaslav prefers Comcast over Paramount, knowledgeable people say.
Through its ownership of the European broadcaster Sky, Comcast has widened its international footprint.
But Comcast carries significant debt and its stock has been stalled for years.
Comcast and Netflix have each expressed interest in buying only the studios, HBO and the streaming service.
Neither Comcast nor Netflix is interested in Warner’s linear cable channels. Comcast is planning to jettison its own portfolio of cable networks, including USA Network, CNBC, MS NOW (formerly MSNBC) and Golf Channel, in a spin-off that should finalize in January. The cable channels will form an entity called Versant.
“The market is witnessing the endgame of the cable TV era,” the Bank of America analysts wrote. “The Warner Bros. studio is the crown jewel, with [intellectual property] ranging from Harry Potter to DC Comics to Game of Thrones (and much more).”
Buying Warner Bros. and HBO would boost NBCUniversal’s television production capabilities and its lagging Peacock streaming service, which has struggled to mint scripted streaming hits.
Comcast executives also have an eye on Warner’s beloved franchises that include Superman and other DC Comics, “Lord of the Rings” and “The Matrix,” which could provide more characters for its growing Universal Studios theme parks.
Netflix also sees great value in the Warner Bros. franchises. In addition, Warner Bros. Television has long been among the industry’s most successful show producers, giving birth to “The Big Bang Theory,” “Ted Lasso” and “The Pitt.”
Scooping up Warner Bros. would also give Netflix Co-Chief Executive Ted Sarandos a legendary movie studio lot — something Netflix currently lacks. The streamer’s L.A. offices sit on a relatively small tract overlooking the 101 Freeway.
Any of the combinations would prompt layoffs in the media industry, which is already reeling from a TV and film production slowdown and the elimination of thousands of workers over the last two years.
Paramount has shed more than 2,600 workers in recent months. The Ellison family and RedBird Capital Partners consolidated their purchase of Paramount in August.
Warner Bros. Discovery also has purged staff as it has struggled under a colossal debt burden brought on by its last merger — Discovery’s $43-billion takeover of WarnerMedia from AT&T in 2022.
Warner still carries about $34 billion of debt.
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