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Trump’s Tariffs: How the Math Affects Over 100 Countries

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Trump’s Tariffs: How the Math Affects Over 100 Countries

President Trump’s new tariffs on more than 100 countries used the same simple formula to calculate the rate for each of them.

The formula’s central value is the trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports between each country and the United States, for the year 2024.

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The slightly more detailed math looks like this:

Mr. Trump has said these tariffs will reduce trade imbalances and level the international playing field.

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But his one-size-fits-all formula is blunt: It applies the exact same math to countries whether they have hefty trade barriers or wide-open markets. It considers only the size of a trade deficit, not why the deficit exists.

And it has some key choices hidden within it. Change any one of those choices, and the resulting tariffs would look very different.

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Here, we take you through these variables so you can see how different choices might yield big changes for the countries that trade with the United States.

Goods and services

The Trump administration calculated the trade deficit using only goods — physical items that can be shipped — and not services, such as technology, media, banking and tourism. (A DVD counts; a Netflix subscription doesn’t.)

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That’s great news for Bermuda, the archipelago nation that exports few goods but plenty of financial services to the United States (thanks to its favorable tax laws, American companies like to bank there). Under the current rules, it pays a 10 percent tariff. If its service dollars were counted, it would pay 37 percent.

But it’s bad news for most of America’s other trading partners. The United States imports more goods from the European Union than it sends. But it exports more services than it buys. If you counted services in the trade gap in Mr. Trump’s formula, the tariffs on the E.U. would shrink almost in half.

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Many countries are in the same boat as the European Union, because the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Switzerland, in particular, would see its tariffs drop quite a bit if services were taken into account. It exports plenty of pharmaceuticals and watches to America, but if you count all the services it imports from America, its trade deficit shrinks significantly.

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How tariffs would change if the deficit included goods and services

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country current rate new rate change
Bermuda 10% 37% +27 pts.
Costa Rica 10% 15% +5 pts.
Philippines 17% 20% +3 pts.
South Africa 30% 22% -8 pts.
India 26% 18% -8 pts.
European Union 20% 10% -10 pts.
Brunei 24% 14% -10 pts.
Switzerland 31% 10% -21 pts.

Includes the largest changes for countries with at least $50 million in total trade with the U.S. in 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

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The Trump administration has emphasized goods because it blames large goods deficits for a decline in manufacturing jobs. But many economists argue that ignoring services leaves out a key area of trade.

Yearly variation

The Trump administration used 2024 data to calculate the tariff rate, but trade deficits can vary year to year.

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Consider this: In 2024, the United States exported more to Saudi Arabia than it imported, but the opposite was true in 2023. Bolivia was the reverse — the United States had a trade deficit with Bolivia in 2024 but a surplus in 2023.

Picking the most recent year might not really capture whether a country has significant trade barriers. It might, instead, be telling us something about the state of a country or the world’s economy at that moment.

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If the administration had smoothed out any oddities by using the average trade deficit over the last five years, tariffs on large countries wouldn’t change much. China’s tariffs would rise by one percentage point; the European Union’s would shift by even less.

But for some countries, a different time frame could have meaningfully changed the calculated values — not necessarily to their benefit.

For example: The United States had a tiny trade deficit with Equatorial Guinea in 2024, so the African country is getting a much better deal than it would have in previous years, when the deficit was several times higher. Brunei, on the other hand, has sold more to the U.S. than it has bought the last couple of years. Look back a little further, and it would’ve benefited from the years it spent as a net buyer of American goods.

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How tariffs would change if the deficit were based on a 2020 to 2024 average

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country current rate new rate change
Equatorial Guinea 13% 30% +17 pts.
Kosovo 10% 27% +17 pts.
Ghana 10% 21% +11 pts.
Malaysia 24% 32% +8 pts.
Moldova 31% 23% -8 pts.
Tunisia 28% 19% -9 pts.
Namibia 21% 10% -11 pts.
Brunei 24% 10% -14 pts.

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Includes the largest changes for countries with at least $50 million in total trade with the U.S. in 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

The new tariffs will very likely cause changes in trading patterns, meaning even more year-to-year variation than before. If the administration decides to keep the formula intact for years, it may need to update the trade deficit values regularly.

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The 10 percent floor

The Trump administration set a 10 percent minimum tariff for every country. At least 100 countries and territories that buy more from the United States than they sell — which seems to be what Mr. Trump wants — were still given the 10 percent tariff.

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The United States has a large trade surplus with Australia — it exports more than twice as much to Australia as what it buys — indicating the kind of trade relationship Mr. Trump is seeking. And yet Australia will be charged the same 10 percent tariff rate as New Zealand, with which the United States has a calculated 20 percent trade deficit. (If anything, Australia would impose a steep tariff on U.S. goods if it followed Mr. Trump’s system.)

If the administration had not imposed a 10 percent minimum, the tariffs on some of America’s major trading partners might look like this:

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How tariffs would change if there were no floor

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country current rate new rate change
Australia 10% 0% -10 pts.
Brazil 10% 0% -10 pts.
Chile 10% 0% -10 pts.
Colombia 10% 0% -10 pts.
Saudi Arabia 10% 0% -10 pts.
Singapore 10% 0% -10 pts.
Britain 10% 0% -10 pts.
United Arab Emirates 10% 0% -10 pts.

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Includes countries with largest total trade with the U.S. in 2024 that would have tariffs reduced to zero. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Everything else

Using the current Trump formula as a starting point, there are many arbitrary choices that would result in different tariffs and a different world economy. We played out every iteration of our choices from above, to see what tariffs might look like under different decisions.

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Here are the countries with the widest ranges of possible tariff rates, based on those scenarios.

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Changes to the formula would lead to big changes for some countries

These ranges include eight possible scenarios, based on three decision points: including versus excluding services; using 2024 data versus 2020-24 data; a 10 percent floor versus no floor.

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country
Bermuda
Kosovo
Brunei
Switzerland
Equatorial Guinea
Monaco
Mozambique
Venezuela
Nigeria
Kenya

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Includes the largest ranges for countries with at least $50 million in total trade with the U.S. in 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Beyond that, the Trump administration made several other arbitrary choices in its formula.

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The biggest is that the formula divides the result by two. Mr. Trump said this was chosen to be “kind,” essentially halving the calculated tariff rates. Of course, he could have chosen to divide by three or four to be more kind or not divide at all to be less kind.

The full formula also multiplies the tariff rate by two other variables that we didn’t show above, meant to approximate the “price elasticity of import demand” and the “tariff pass-through to retail prices.” But the numbers the administration chose for those variables are 4 and 0.25, which cancel out (4 × 0.25 = 1) and have no effect on the final rate.

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The tariff for Afghanistan is set at 10 percent, though the formula would have resulted in a 25 percent fee. The administration has not explained why Afghanistan is the sole country with different math.

A handful of countries were excluded from the new tariffs, including Canada and Mexico, which face separate tariff negotiations with Mr. Trump, and Russia and North Korea, which have other sanctions already placed on them. For China, on the other hand, the new tariffs are in addition to existing tariffs already in place, bringing China’s total tariff rate to at least 54 percent.

Exceptions on certain products also create some quirks. The United States will charge a 39 percent tariff on all goods from Iraq, largely because Iraq exports a lot of oil. However, oil and gas imports have been excluded from tariffs. This means that products like textiles or dates imported from Iraq will be charged a large tariff because of Iraq’s oil exports, even though the oil exports themselves will not be charged tariffs.

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It is hard to say how long the formula will remain intact. Mr. Trump said Thursday that he was willing to make deals with other countries if the United States received something “phenomenal.”

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Disney to pay $2.75 million to settle alleged violations of the California Consumer Privacy Act

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Disney to pay .75 million to settle alleged violations of the California Consumer Privacy Act

Walt Disney Co. will pay $2.75 million to settle allegations that it violated the California Consumer Privacy Act by not fully complying with consumers’ requests to opt out of data sharing on its streaming services, the state attorney general’s office said Wednesday.

The Burbank media and entertainment company allegedly restricted the extent of opt-out requests, including complying with users’ petitions only on the device or streaming services they processed it from, or stopping the sharing of consumers’ personal data through Disney’s advertising platform but not those of specific ad-tech companies whose code was embedded on Disney websites and apps, the attorney general’s office said.

In addition to the fine, the settlement, which is subject to court approval, will require Disney to enact a “consumer-friendly, easy to execute” process that allows users to opt-out of the sale or sharing of their data with as few steps as possible, according to court documents.

“Consumers shouldn’t have to go to infinity and beyond to assert their privacy rights,” Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said in a statement. “In California, asking a business to stop selling your data should not be complicated or cumbersome.”

A Disney spokesperson said in a statement that the company “continues to invest significant resources to set the standard for responsible and transparent data practices across our streaming services.”

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“As technology and media continue to evolve, protecting the privacy and preserving the experience of Californians and fans everywhere remains a longstanding priority for Disney,” the spokesperson said.

The settlement with Disney stemmed from a 2024 investigation by the attorney general’s office into streaming devices and apps for alleged violations of the California Consumer Privacy Act, which governs the collection of consumers’ personal data by businesses.

Under the law, businesses that sell or share personal data for targeted advertising must give users the right to opt-out.

Disney’s $2.75-million payment is the largest such settlement under the state privacy act, Bonta’s office said.

The attorney general has also reached settlements with companies such as beauty retailer Sephora, food delivery app DoorDash and SlingTV for alleged violations of the privacy act.

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L.A. wildfire victims would get mortgage relief under new bill

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L.A. wildfire victims would get mortgage relief under new bill

Victims of last year’s wildfires in Los Angeles County who were unable to get mortgage relief under a state law enacted last year would get another chance with a stronger bill introduced Wednesday.

The legislation, AB 1847, by Assemblymember John Harabedian (D-Pasadena), would triple to 36 months the 12 months of mortgage relief offered by last year’s AB 238, while allowing borrowers to repay the money through a deferral that extends the mortgage.

Also authored by Harabedian, AB 238 prohibited mortgage lenders and servicers from requiring borrowers to pay back any forbearance in a lump sum, but it otherwise did not specify repayment terms. It also banned late fees, foreclosures and negative reports to credit bureaus.

Borrowers told The Times that they had difficulty getting any relief and when they did, they were told if they didn’t want to pay it back in a lump sum, they would have to agree to a loan modification that could raise their interest rate.

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Like AB 238, the relief can only be obtained if allowed by the underlying mortgage contract.

However, Harabedian said that most of the contracts and guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the government-sponsored organizations that hold or guarantee the majority of U.S. mortgages — do not bar loan deferrals.

“I think some people were being offered forbearance that, frankly, didn’t comply with 238 when it should have,” he said. “They weren’t given any sort of election or flexibility on how they would repay so we’re trying to perfect it now.”

Harabedian said most of the problems borrowers are facing appear to be due to companies that service mortgages on behalf of lenders, while large institutions such as Bank of America have been more generous.

The Charlotte, N.C., financial institution in December started offering 36 months of mortgage relief to its borrowers without a change to the interest rate.

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Another key AB 238 amendment is the extension of relief from 12 to 36 months, which borrowers seek in 90-day increments. The deadline for applying for relief would be extended to Jan. 7, 2029.

Harabedian said 36-months of relief are necessary as it will take many homeowners years to fix and rebuild their homes after the fires in Altadena, Pacific Palisades and nearby communities, which killed at least 31 people and damaged or destroyed more than 18,000 homes.

“This extension tries to align with the full rebuild process that survivors are going to endure, and make sure that from the start of it till the end of it, they’re not under financial distress that would cause them to abandon their communities,” he said.

Len Kendall, who lost his home in Pacific Palisades, said that while he welcomed the legislation, he is still uncertain how it might affect him, including his terms of repayment.

“There’s going to have to be follow up to make sure these these servicers and lenders actually abide by the laws, because there’s no one really holding them accountable at the moment,” he said.

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Last month, Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a press release that the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation has received 233 mortgage forbearance complaints, with 92% resolved in the consumer’s favor.

However, Kendall said that the agency closed his complaint even though his mortgage servicer had requested a lump sum and his repayment plan remains up in the air.

The agency told him in a letter reviewed by The Times that it “cannot intervene on behalf of individual consumers in any particular case” and that it “brings consumer protection actions when we find patterns of deception, misrepresentation or unfair business practices of statewide interest.”

A spokesperson for the agency said it worked with Kendall to ensure he received “appropriate” forbearance relief and considers the matter resolved.

He added the department is monitoring compliance with AB 238 but so far has not announced any enforcement actions against lenders or servicers.

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Harabedian introduced a second bill Wednesday that would provide for mortgage forbearance statewide for homeowners whose residences are uninhabitable after a state of emergency declared by the governor or federal government.

The California Emergency Mortgage Relief Act, AB 1842, requires mortgage servicers to file a monthly report with the DFPI about the number of forbearance requests they receive during a declared emergency and how many were approved and denied, including the reason for denial.

The bill also allows a borrower to bring a civil action against a mortgage servicer for violations of the law.

The AB 238 amendments, if signed into law, would take effect immediately.

Harabedian’s office worked with the California Bankers Assn. and the California Mortgage Bankers Assn. in developing AB 238. The lawmaker said he not sure if they will support the extension of mortgage relief.

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“We look forward to reviewing it with our members and working constructively with stakeholders as we have consistently done. The banking industry proactively provided relief to wildfire victims, and this effort pre-dated legislative action,” said Yvette Ernst, spokesperson for the California Bankers Assn.

The California Mortgage Bankers Assn. said it also was reviewing the legislation.

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Instagram boss defends app from witness stand in trial over alleged harms to kids

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Instagram boss defends app from witness stand in trial over alleged harms to kids

A Los Angeles County Superior Court judge threatened to throw grieving mothers out of court Wednesday if they couldn’t stop crying during testimony from Instagram boss Adam Mosseri, who took the stand to defend his company’s app against allegations the product is harmful to children.

The social media addiction case is considered a bellwether that could shape the fate of thousands of other pending lawsuits, transforming the legal landscape for some of the world’s most powerful companies.

For many in the gallery, it was a chance to sit face to face with a man they hold responsible for their children’s deaths. Bereaved parents waited outside the Spring Street courthouse overnight in the rain for a place in the gallery, some breaking into sobs as he spoke.

“I can’t do this,” wept mom Lori Schott, whose daughter Annalee died by suicide after a years-long struggle with what she described as social media addiction. “I’m shaking, I couldn’t stop. It just destroyed her.”

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Judge Carolyn B. Kuhl warned she would boot the moms if they could not contain their weeping.

“If there’s a violation of that order from me, I will remove you from the court,” the judge said.

Mosseri, by contrast, appeared cool and collected on the stand, wearing thick wire-framed glasses and a navy suit.

“It’s not good for the company over the long run to make decisions that profit us but are poor for people’s well-being,” he said during a combative exchange with attorney Mark Lanier, who represents the young woman at the center of the closely watched trial. “That’s eventually going to be very problematic for the company.”

Lanier’s client, a Chico, Calif., woman referred to as Kaley G.M., said she became addicted to social media as a grade-schooler, and charges that YouTube and Instagram were designed to hook young users and keep them trapped on the platforms. Two other defendants, TikTok and Snap, settled out of court.

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Attorneys for the tech titans hit back, saying in opening statements Monday and Tuesday that Kaley’s troubled home life and her fractious relationship with her family were to blame for her suffering, not the platforms.

They also sought to discredit social media addiction as a concept, while trying to cast doubt on Kaley’s claim to the diagnosis.

“I think it’s important to differentiate between clinical addiction and problematic use,” Mosseri said Wednesday. “Sometimes we use addiction to refer to things more casually.”

On Wednesday, Meta attorney Phyllis Jones asked Mosseri directly whether Instagram targeted teenagers for profit.

“We make less money from teens than from any other demographic on the app,” Mosseri said. “We make much more the older you get.”

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Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg is expected to take the witness stand next week.

Kaley’s suit is being tried as a test case for a much larger group of actions in California state court. A similar — and similarly massive — set of federal suits are proceeding in parallel through California’s Northern District.

Mosseri’s appearance in Los Angeles on Wednesday follows a stinging legal blow in San Francisco earlier this week, where U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers blocked a plea by the tech giants to avoid their first trial there.

That trial — another bellwether involving a suit by Breathitt County School District in Kentucky — is now set to begin in San Francisco in June, after the judge denied companies’ motion for summary judgment. Defendants in both sets of suits have said the actions should be thrown out under a powerful 1996 law called Section 230 that shields internet publishers from liability for user content.

On Wednesday morning, Lanier hammered Mosseri over the controversial beauty filters that debuted on Instagram’s Stories function in 2019, showing an email chain in which Mosseri appeared to resist a ban on filters that mimicked plastic surgery.

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Such filters have been linked by some research to the deepening mental health crisis in girls and young women, whose suicide rates have surged in recent years.

They have also been shown to drive eating disorders — by far the deadliest psychiatric illnesses — in teens. Those disorders continue to overwhelm providers years after other pandemic-era mental health crises have ebbed.

Earlier research linking social media and harms to young women was referenced in the November 2019 email chain reviewed in court Wednesday, in which one Instagram executive noted the filters “live on Instagram” and were “primarily used by teen girls.”

“There’s always a trade-off between safety and speech,” Mosseri said of the filters. “We’re trying to be as safe as possible but also censor as little as possible.”

The company briefly banned effects that “cannot be mimicked by makeup” and then walked the decision back amid fears Instagram would lose market share to less scrupulous actors.

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“Mark [Zuckerberg] decided that the right balance was to focus on not allowing filters that promoted plastic surgery, but not those that did not,” Mosseri said. “I was never worried about this affecting our stock price.”

For Schott, seeing those decisions unfold almost a year to the day before her daughter’s death was too much to bear.

“They made that decision and they made that decision and they made that decision again — and my daughter’s dead in 2020,” she said. “How much more could that match? Timeline, days, decisions? Bam, she was dead.”

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