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Trump’s Tariffs: How the Math Affects Over 100 Countries

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Trump’s Tariffs: How the Math Affects Over 100 Countries

President Trump’s new tariffs on more than 100 countries used the same simple formula to calculate the rate for each of them.

The formula’s central value is the trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports between each country and the United States, for the year 2024.

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The slightly more detailed math looks like this:

Mr. Trump has said these tariffs will reduce trade imbalances and level the international playing field.

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But his one-size-fits-all formula is blunt: It applies the exact same math to countries whether they have hefty trade barriers or wide-open markets. It considers only the size of a trade deficit, not why the deficit exists.

And it has some key choices hidden within it. Change any one of those choices, and the resulting tariffs would look very different.

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Here, we take you through these variables so you can see how different choices might yield big changes for the countries that trade with the United States.

Goods and services

The Trump administration calculated the trade deficit using only goods — physical items that can be shipped — and not services, such as technology, media, banking and tourism. (A DVD counts; a Netflix subscription doesn’t.)

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That’s great news for Bermuda, the archipelago nation that exports few goods but plenty of financial services to the United States (thanks to its favorable tax laws, American companies like to bank there). Under the current rules, it pays a 10 percent tariff. If its service dollars were counted, it would pay 37 percent.

But it’s bad news for most of America’s other trading partners. The United States imports more goods from the European Union than it sends. But it exports more services than it buys. If you counted services in the trade gap in Mr. Trump’s formula, the tariffs on the E.U. would shrink almost in half.

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Many countries are in the same boat as the European Union, because the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Switzerland, in particular, would see its tariffs drop quite a bit if services were taken into account. It exports plenty of pharmaceuticals and watches to America, but if you count all the services it imports from America, its trade deficit shrinks significantly.

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How tariffs would change if the deficit included goods and services

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country current rate new rate change
Bermuda 10% 37% +27 pts.
Costa Rica 10% 15% +5 pts.
Philippines 17% 20% +3 pts.
South Africa 30% 22% -8 pts.
India 26% 18% -8 pts.
European Union 20% 10% -10 pts.
Brunei 24% 14% -10 pts.
Switzerland 31% 10% -21 pts.

Includes the largest changes for countries with at least $50 million in total trade with the U.S. in 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

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The Trump administration has emphasized goods because it blames large goods deficits for a decline in manufacturing jobs. But many economists argue that ignoring services leaves out a key area of trade.

Yearly variation

The Trump administration used 2024 data to calculate the tariff rate, but trade deficits can vary year to year.

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Consider this: In 2024, the United States exported more to Saudi Arabia than it imported, but the opposite was true in 2023. Bolivia was the reverse — the United States had a trade deficit with Bolivia in 2024 but a surplus in 2023.

Picking the most recent year might not really capture whether a country has significant trade barriers. It might, instead, be telling us something about the state of a country or the world’s economy at that moment.

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If the administration had smoothed out any oddities by using the average trade deficit over the last five years, tariffs on large countries wouldn’t change much. China’s tariffs would rise by one percentage point; the European Union’s would shift by even less.

But for some countries, a different time frame could have meaningfully changed the calculated values — not necessarily to their benefit.

For example: The United States had a tiny trade deficit with Equatorial Guinea in 2024, so the African country is getting a much better deal than it would have in previous years, when the deficit was several times higher. Brunei, on the other hand, has sold more to the U.S. than it has bought the last couple of years. Look back a little further, and it would’ve benefited from the years it spent as a net buyer of American goods.

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How tariffs would change if the deficit were based on a 2020 to 2024 average

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country current rate new rate change
Equatorial Guinea 13% 30% +17 pts.
Kosovo 10% 27% +17 pts.
Ghana 10% 21% +11 pts.
Malaysia 24% 32% +8 pts.
Moldova 31% 23% -8 pts.
Tunisia 28% 19% -9 pts.
Namibia 21% 10% -11 pts.
Brunei 24% 10% -14 pts.

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Includes the largest changes for countries with at least $50 million in total trade with the U.S. in 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

The new tariffs will very likely cause changes in trading patterns, meaning even more year-to-year variation than before. If the administration decides to keep the formula intact for years, it may need to update the trade deficit values regularly.

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The 10 percent floor

The Trump administration set a 10 percent minimum tariff for every country. At least 100 countries and territories that buy more from the United States than they sell — which seems to be what Mr. Trump wants — were still given the 10 percent tariff.

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The United States has a large trade surplus with Australia — it exports more than twice as much to Australia as what it buys — indicating the kind of trade relationship Mr. Trump is seeking. And yet Australia will be charged the same 10 percent tariff rate as New Zealand, with which the United States has a calculated 20 percent trade deficit. (If anything, Australia would impose a steep tariff on U.S. goods if it followed Mr. Trump’s system.)

If the administration had not imposed a 10 percent minimum, the tariffs on some of America’s major trading partners might look like this:

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How tariffs would change if there were no floor

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country current rate new rate change
Australia 10% 0% -10 pts.
Brazil 10% 0% -10 pts.
Chile 10% 0% -10 pts.
Colombia 10% 0% -10 pts.
Saudi Arabia 10% 0% -10 pts.
Singapore 10% 0% -10 pts.
Britain 10% 0% -10 pts.
United Arab Emirates 10% 0% -10 pts.

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Includes countries with largest total trade with the U.S. in 2024 that would have tariffs reduced to zero. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Everything else

Using the current Trump formula as a starting point, there are many arbitrary choices that would result in different tariffs and a different world economy. We played out every iteration of our choices from above, to see what tariffs might look like under different decisions.

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Here are the countries with the widest ranges of possible tariff rates, based on those scenarios.

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Changes to the formula would lead to big changes for some countries

These ranges include eight possible scenarios, based on three decision points: including versus excluding services; using 2024 data versus 2020-24 data; a 10 percent floor versus no floor.

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country
Bermuda
Kosovo
Brunei
Switzerland
Equatorial Guinea
Monaco
Mozambique
Venezuela
Nigeria
Kenya

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Includes the largest ranges for countries with at least $50 million in total trade with the U.S. in 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Beyond that, the Trump administration made several other arbitrary choices in its formula.

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The biggest is that the formula divides the result by two. Mr. Trump said this was chosen to be “kind,” essentially halving the calculated tariff rates. Of course, he could have chosen to divide by three or four to be more kind or not divide at all to be less kind.

The full formula also multiplies the tariff rate by two other variables that we didn’t show above, meant to approximate the “price elasticity of import demand” and the “tariff pass-through to retail prices.” But the numbers the administration chose for those variables are 4 and 0.25, which cancel out (4 × 0.25 = 1) and have no effect on the final rate.

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The tariff for Afghanistan is set at 10 percent, though the formula would have resulted in a 25 percent fee. The administration has not explained why Afghanistan is the sole country with different math.

A handful of countries were excluded from the new tariffs, including Canada and Mexico, which face separate tariff negotiations with Mr. Trump, and Russia and North Korea, which have other sanctions already placed on them. For China, on the other hand, the new tariffs are in addition to existing tariffs already in place, bringing China’s total tariff rate to at least 54 percent.

Exceptions on certain products also create some quirks. The United States will charge a 39 percent tariff on all goods from Iraq, largely because Iraq exports a lot of oil. However, oil and gas imports have been excluded from tariffs. This means that products like textiles or dates imported from Iraq will be charged a large tariff because of Iraq’s oil exports, even though the oil exports themselves will not be charged tariffs.

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It is hard to say how long the formula will remain intact. Mr. Trump said Thursday that he was willing to make deals with other countries if the United States received something “phenomenal.”

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FKA twigs sues ex-boyfriend Shia LaBeouf over ‘unlawful’ NDA

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FKA twigs sues ex-boyfriend Shia LaBeouf over ‘unlawful’ NDA

Singer-songwriter FKA twigs is suing her ex-boyfriend, actor Shia LaBeouf, claiming that he is trying to “silence” her from speaking out against sexual abuse through the use of an “unlawful” nondisclosure agreement.

The complaint, filed in Los Angeles Superior Court on Wednesday, seeks a court order to prohibit LeBeouf from enforcing sections of an NDA which Tahliah Barnett — the Grammy Award-winning singer’s legal name — says violates California law.

“Shia LaBeouf has tried to control Tahliah Barnett for the better part of a decade,” the filing states.

“This action was taken in response to Mr. LaBeouf’s attempt to bully and intimidate twigs through a frivolous and unlawful secret arbitration he filed against her in December in which he sought to extract money from her,” said the singer’s attorney Mathew Rosengart, national co-chair of media & entertainment litigation at Greenberg Traurig in Century City, in a statement.

Rosengart added that twigs “refuses to be bullied anymore. She is instead standing up for herself and other survivors of sexual abuse who have improperly been silenced. This is the unusual case that is not about money but about justice and upholding and enforcing California law and policy designed to protect survivors by nullifying illegal NDAs.”

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LaBeouf’s attorney Shawn Holley of Kinsella Holley Iser Kump Steinsapir denied the claims.

“When Ms. Barnett and Mr. LaBeouf both decided to resolve their differences and move on with their lives, no one forced her or ‘bullied’ her to stay silent,” Holley said in a statement.
“As a woman with agency, she decided to settle the case and accepted money to dismiss her lawsuit.”

The suit arises out of litigation that Barnett brought against LaBeouf in 2020, when she accused the actor of “physical, sexual, and mental abuse” during their relationship,” as well as “knowingly infect[ing]” Barnett with a sexually transmitted disease.” That case was settled last year.

In a response to the suit, the actor told the New York Times that “many of these allegations are not true.”

But he added, “I am not in the position to defend any of my actions. I owe these women the opportunity to air their statements publicly and accept accountability for those things I have done.”

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In the statement Thursday, Holley added that the claim of sexual battery “was disputed, as were the other claims made in Ms. Barnett’s lawsuit.”

Shia LaBeouf poses for photographers upon arrival at the premiere of the film “The Phoenician Scheme” at the 78th annual Cannes Film Festival May 18, 2025.

(Lewis Joly / Invision / AP)

According to the new lawsuit, LaBeouf filed a secret arbitration complaint and “improperly sought exorbitant monies” from Barnett last December, claiming she had breached their agreement by violating its nondisclosure provisions after she gave an interview to the Hollywood Reporter in October.

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In the interview, Barnett was asked if she felt safe and answered that as a woman of color in the entertainment industry, she “wouldn’t feel safe” and discussed her involvement with organizations that support survivors, saying, “I think it’s less about me at this point and more about looking forward. Just, you know, moving on with my life.”

The agreement Barnett reached with LaBeouf “contained a deficient and unlawful NDA that is unenforceable,” under California’s Stand Together Against Non-Disclosure Act, according to the complaint. The law forbids NDAs from being used to silence victims of sexual misconduct.

“As the California Legislature has made clear, survivors should have the right to tell their stories without fear or coercion, and California law does not and must not allow abusers and bullies to silence them through secret agreements containing unconscionable, unlawful gag orders,” the complaint states.

The lawsuit further alleges that while LaBeouf has sought to prohibit Barnett from talking about her abuse, he has “repeatedly brought up his relationship with Ms. Barnett—on his own and without being directly asked about her—materially breaching the very confidentiality provisions that he had just contended were fully enforceable against Ms. Barnett.”

While the actor agreed to drop the arbitration in February, he has “refused to acknowledge, however, that the NDA provisions are illegal and unenforceable,” the filing states.

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The latest round in LaBeouf’s legal battle with Barnett comes just weeks after a New Orleans judge ordered the actor to begin substance abuse treatment and undergo weekly drug testing after he was arrested on suspicion of assaulting two men in the city’s French Quarter. LaBeouf was also required to post $100,000 bond as part of the conditions of his release. He was charged with two counts of simple battery, the Associated Press reported.

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Warner shareholders to vote on Paramount takeover

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Warner shareholders to vote on Paramount takeover

Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders will soon render a verdict on Hollywood’s biggest merger in nearly a decade.

Warner has set an April 23 special meeting of stockholders to vote on the company’s proposed sale, for $31-a-share, to the Larry Ellison family’s Paramount Skydance.

The $111-billion deal is expected to reshape the entertainment industry by combining two historic film studios, dozens of prominent TV networks, including CBS, HBO, HGTV and Comedy Central, streaming services and two news organizations, CNN and CBS News. The tie-up would give Paramount such beloved characters as Batman, Wile E. Coyote, and Harry Potter, television shows including “Hacks,” and “The Pitt,” and a rich vault of movies that includes “Casablanca,” and “One Battle After Another.”

The $31-a-share offer represents a 63% increase over Paramount Chairman David Ellison’s initial $19-a-share proposal for the company in mid-September, and a 147% premium over Warner’s stock’s trading levels prior to news of Ellison’s interest.

“This transaction is the culmination of the Board’s robust process to unlock the full value of our world-class portfolio,” Warner Bros. Discovery Chief Executive David Zaslav said Thursday in a statement. “We are working closely with Paramount to close the transaction and deliver its benefits to all stakeholders.”

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Paramount hopes to finalize the takeover by September. It has been working to secure the blessing of government regulators in the U.S. and abroad.

Should those regulatory deliberations stretch beyond September, Paramount will pay shareholders a so-called “ticking fee” — an extra 25 cents a share for every 90-day-period until the deal closes.

The transaction will leave the combined company with nearly $80-billion in debt, a sum that experts say will lead to significant cost cuts.

Paramount Skydance Chairman and CEO David Ellison attends President Trump’s State of the Union address three days before clinching his hard-fought Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

(Mark Schiefelbein / Associated Press)

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For weeks it appeared that Netflix would scoop up Warner Bros.

Netflix initially won the bidding war in early December with a $27.75 offer for the studios and streaming services, including HBO Max. But Ellison refused to throw in the towel. He and his team continued to lobby shareholders, politicians and Warner board members, insisting their deal for the entire company, including the cable channels, was superior and they had a more certain path to win regulatory approval.

The Ellison family is close to President Trump. This week, Trump named Larry Ellison to a proposed White House council on technology issues, including artificial intelligence.

Warner’s board, under pressure, reopened the bidding in late February to allow Paramount to make its case. Warner board members ultimately concluded that Paramount’s bid topped the one from Netflix and the streamer bowed out. Paramount paid a $2.8-billion termination fee to Netflix and signed the merger agreement on Feb. 27.

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Warner’s board is advising its shareholders to approve the Paramount deal. Failure to cast a vote will be the same as a no-vote, according to the company’s proxy.

Warner’s largest shareholders include the Vanguard Group, BlackRock, Inc. and State Street Corp.

Zaslav has significant stock and options holdings, worth about $517 million at the deal’s close, according to the proxy.

The regulatory filing also disclosed that a mysterious bidder had surfaced at the auction’s 11th hour.

A firm called Nobelis Capital, Pte., reportedly based in Singapore, alerted Warner on Feb. 18 that it was willing to pay $32.50 a share in cash.

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The firm said it had placed $7.5 billion into an escrow account. However, Warner’s bankers “could not find the purported deposit at J.P. Morgan,” according to the proxy. And there was no evidence that Nobelis had any assets or any “equity or debt financing” lined up, Warner said, adding that it “took no further action with respect to the Nobelis proposal.”

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Video: How Kharg Island May Change the Trajectory of the Iran War

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Video: How Kharg Island May Change the Trajectory of the Iran War

new video loaded: How Kharg Island May Change the Trajectory of the Iran War

Kharg Island exports 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil. It has also become a potential U.S. target. Peter Eavis, our Business reporter, examines how the small island in the Persian Gulf has become a strategic target with significant risks.

By Peter Eavis, Gilad Thaler, Edward Vega, Lauren Pruitt and Joey Sendaydiego

March 25, 2026

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