Business
Trump’s Tariffs: How the Math Affects Over 100 Countries
President Trump’s new tariffs on more than 100 countries used the same simple formula to calculate the rate for each of them.
The formula’s central value is the trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports between each country and the United States, for the year 2024.
The slightly more detailed math looks like this:
Mr. Trump has said these tariffs will reduce trade imbalances and level the international playing field.
But his one-size-fits-all formula is blunt: It applies the exact same math to countries whether they have hefty trade barriers or wide-open markets. It considers only the size of a trade deficit, not why the deficit exists.
And it has some key choices hidden within it. Change any one of those choices, and the resulting tariffs would look very different.
Here, we take you through these variables so you can see how different choices might yield big changes for the countries that trade with the United States.
Goods and services
The Trump administration calculated the trade deficit using only goods — physical items that can be shipped — and not services, such as technology, media, banking and tourism. (A DVD counts; a Netflix subscription doesn’t.)
That’s great news for Bermuda, the archipelago nation that exports few goods but plenty of financial services to the United States (thanks to its favorable tax laws, American companies like to bank there). Under the current rules, it pays a 10 percent tariff. If its service dollars were counted, it would pay 37 percent.
But it’s bad news for most of America’s other trading partners. The United States imports more goods from the European Union than it sends. But it exports more services than it buys. If you counted services in the trade gap in Mr. Trump’s formula, the tariffs on the E.U. would shrink almost in half.
Many countries are in the same boat as the European Union, because the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Switzerland, in particular, would see its tariffs drop quite a bit if services were taken into account. It exports plenty of pharmaceuticals and watches to America, but if you count all the services it imports from America, its trade deficit shrinks significantly.
How tariffs would change if the deficit included goods and services
country
current rate
new rate
change
Bermuda
10%
37%
+27 pts.
Costa Rica
10%
15%
+5 pts.
Philippines
17%
20%
+3 pts.
South Africa
30%
22%
-8 pts.
India
26%
18%
-8 pts.
European Union
20%
10%
-10 pts.
Brunei
24%
14%
-10 pts.
Switzerland
31%
10%
-21 pts.
The Trump administration has emphasized goods because it blames large goods deficits for a decline in manufacturing jobs. But many economists argue that ignoring services leaves out a key area of trade.
Yearly variation
The Trump administration used 2024 data to calculate the tariff rate, but trade deficits can vary year to year.
Consider this: In 2024, the United States exported more to Saudi Arabia than it imported, but the opposite was true in 2023. Bolivia was the reverse — the United States had a trade deficit with Bolivia in 2024 but a surplus in 2023.
Picking the most recent year might not really capture whether a country has significant trade barriers. It might, instead, be telling us something about the state of a country or the world’s economy at that moment.
If the administration had smoothed out any oddities by using the average trade deficit over the last five years, tariffs on large countries wouldn’t change much. China’s tariffs would rise by one percentage point; the European Union’s would shift by even less.
But for some countries, a different time frame could have meaningfully changed the calculated values — not necessarily to their benefit.
For example: The United States had a tiny trade deficit with Equatorial Guinea in 2024, so the African country is getting a much better deal than it would have in previous years, when the deficit was several times higher. Brunei, on the other hand, has sold more to the U.S. than it has bought the last couple of years. Look back a little further, and it would’ve benefited from the years it spent as a net buyer of American goods.
How tariffs would change if the deficit were based on a 2020 to 2024 average
country
current rate
new rate
change
Equatorial Guinea
13%
30%
+17 pts.
Kosovo
10%
27%
+17 pts.
Ghana
10%
21%
+11 pts.
Malaysia
24%
32%
+8 pts.
Moldova
31%
23%
-8 pts.
Tunisia
28%
19%
-9 pts.
Namibia
21%
10%
-11 pts.
Brunei
24%
10%
-14 pts.
The new tariffs will very likely cause changes in trading patterns, meaning even more year-to-year variation than before. If the administration decides to keep the formula intact for years, it may need to update the trade deficit values regularly.
The 10 percent floor
The Trump administration set a 10 percent minimum tariff for every country. At least 100 countries and territories that buy more from the United States than they sell — which seems to be what Mr. Trump wants — were still given the 10 percent tariff.
The United States has a large trade surplus with Australia — it exports more than twice as much to Australia as what it buys — indicating the kind of trade relationship Mr. Trump is seeking. And yet Australia will be charged the same 10 percent tariff rate as New Zealand, with which the United States has a calculated 20 percent trade deficit. (If anything, Australia would impose a steep tariff on U.S. goods if it followed Mr. Trump’s system.)
If the administration had not imposed a 10 percent minimum, the tariffs on some of America’s major trading partners might look like this:
How tariffs would change if there were no floor
country
current rate
new rate
change
Australia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Brazil
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Chile
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Colombia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Saudi Arabia
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Singapore
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Britain
10%
0%
-10 pts.
United Arab Emirates
10%
0%
-10 pts.
Everything else
Using the current Trump formula as a starting point, there are many arbitrary choices that would result in different tariffs and a different world economy. We played out every iteration of our choices from above, to see what tariffs might look like under different decisions.
Here are the countries with the widest ranges of possible tariff rates, based on those scenarios.
These ranges include eight possible scenarios, based on three decision points: including versus excluding services; using 2024 data versus 2020-24 data; a 10 percent floor versus no floor.
Changes to the formula would lead to big changes for some countries
country
Bermuda
Kosovo
Brunei
Switzerland
Equatorial Guinea
Monaco
Mozambique
Venezuela
Nigeria
Kenya
Beyond that, the Trump administration made several other arbitrary choices in its formula.
The biggest is that the formula divides the result by two. Mr. Trump said this was chosen to be “kind,” essentially halving the calculated tariff rates. Of course, he could have chosen to divide by three or four to be more kind or not divide at all to be less kind.
The full formula also multiplies the tariff rate by two other variables that we didn’t show above, meant to approximate the “price elasticity of import demand” and the “tariff pass-through to retail prices.” But the numbers the administration chose for those variables are 4 and 0.25, which cancel out (4 × 0.25 = 1) and have no effect on the final rate.
The tariff for Afghanistan is set at 10 percent, though the formula would have resulted in a 25 percent fee. The administration has not explained why Afghanistan is the sole country with different math.
A handful of countries were excluded from the new tariffs, including Canada and Mexico, which face separate tariff negotiations with Mr. Trump, and Russia and North Korea, which have other sanctions already placed on them. For China, on the other hand, the new tariffs are in addition to existing tariffs already in place, bringing China’s total tariff rate to at least 54 percent.
Exceptions on certain products also create some quirks. The United States will charge a 39 percent tariff on all goods from Iraq, largely because Iraq exports a lot of oil. However, oil and gas imports have been excluded from tariffs. This means that products like textiles or dates imported from Iraq will be charged a large tariff because of Iraq’s oil exports, even though the oil exports themselves will not be charged tariffs.
It is hard to say how long the formula will remain intact. Mr. Trump said Thursday that he was willing to make deals with other countries if the United States received something “phenomenal.”
Business
Netflix amends Warner Bros. deal to all cash in bidding war
Netflix has amended its proposed $72-billion purchase of Warner Bros. and HBO, converting it to an all-cash offer in hopes of defusing criticisms from rival bidder, David Ellison’s Paramount.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery approved the change Monday, according to a regulatory filing. Warner board members previously had accepted Netflix’s $27.75-a-share cash-and-stock proposal for Warner’s Burbank studios and HBO streaming operations.
Paramount has complained that its $30-per-share offer for the entire company was higher, and thus, should be the winning bid. Paramount is appealing directly to Warner stockholders, asking them to sell their shares to Paramount by Wednesday.
Netflix stopped short of raising its bid above $27.75 a share, but the Los Gatos streaming giant agreed to pay the full amount in cash should it ultimately win Warner’s legendary studios behind such blockbusters as “Batman,” “The Matrix” and “The Big Bang Theory.” Netflix is not interested in Warner Bros. basic cable channels, which are scheduled to be spun off into a separate company.
Netflix said the change “simplifies the transaction structure, provides greater certainty of value for WBD stockholders, and accelerates the path to a WBD stockholder vote.”
The move was prompted, in part, because Netflix’s stock price has taken a major hit, eroding value in its proposal for Warner Bros.
The new terms neutralize one of Paramount’s primary criticisms: that the stock portion of the Netflix offer makes its bid inferior. Netflix’s shares have lost 29% since its pursuit of Warner Bros. came to light. Paramount shares have also declined about 29% over that time.
Warner Bros. Discovery board members have stuck with Netflix’s proposal — valued at $82.7-billion, including some debt — despite persistent overtures by Ellison’s Paramount.
Warner Bros.’ board “continues to support and unanimously recommend our transaction, and we are confident that it will deliver the best outcome for stockholders, consumers, creators and the broader entertainment community,” Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, said in a statement Tuesday.
Warner Bros. Discovery said it would schedule a shareholder meeting. The vote could be held in April.
If the Netflix deal is approved, Warner shareholders would also receive stock in the new company, Discovery Global, which will be made up of Warner’s cable channels, including CNN, TBS, HGTV and Food Network. The spinoff is expected to be completed this summer, but the value of the channels is in doubt, giving Paramount ammunition to claim that its $30-a-share tender offer for the entire company was more lucrative.
Paramount, which has been pursuing the prized assets since September, has sued Warner in Delaware courts to obtain information about how Warner board members came up with a value for the cable channels.
Last week, a Delaware judge refused Paramount’s request for expedited proceedings.
On Tuesday, Warner Bros. separately addressed that Paramount criticism by outlining how it values its cable networks.
Warner Bros.’ advisors value the cable networks from as little as 72 cents a share to as much as $6.86 a share, according to the filing. Paramount has claimed those properties have no value even though cable networks account for most of Paramount’s own sales and profit.
The new company, Discovery Global, would have $17 billion of debt as of June 30, 2026. That would decrease to $16.1 billion by the end of the year. Warner and Netflix also tweaked the agreement so that Discovery Global will have $260 million less debt than initially planned as a result of stronger-than-expected cash flow last year.
The filing projects Discovery Global’s 2026 revenue would reach $16.9 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.4 billion before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
In Tuesday’s announcement, Netflix touted its “strong cash flow generation,” which it said supported the revised all-cash transaction “while preserving a healthy balance sheet and flexibility to capitalize on future strategic priorities.”
Warner Bros. Discovery board members have cited Paramount’s highly leveraged proposal as a weak point, giving it another reason to award the company to the stronger firm, Netflix.
Paramount would need to come up with more than $94 billion in equity and debt to finance the deal.
The battle for Warner Bros. is one of the biggest media deals in the last decade and is expected to reshape the entertainment industry. Netflix emerged as a surprise suitor, entering the fray after Warner Bros. put itself up for sale in October.
Netflix has turned to Wall Street banks to help finance its deal. The company now has $42.2 billion of bridge loans in place, according to a filing Tuesday, a type of facility that is usually replaced with permanent debt like corporate bonds.
Netflix is scheduled to report fourth-quarter financial results on Tuesday after markets close.
Bloomberg News contributed to this report.
Business
Video: Has Trump Delivered on His Economic Promises?
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January 19, 2026
Business
Trump administration sues California over law keeping oil wells from homes, schools
California communities and environmental justice groups worked for years to win a law to prevent new oil and gas wells from being drilled near where people live, work and gather. Now, the Trump administration is suing to overturn it.
In a lawsuit filed Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California, the U.S. Department of Justice challenged Senate Bill 1137, state legislation passed in 2022 that establishes a 3,200-foot minimum setback between new oil wells and “sensitive receptors,” defined as homes, schools, community centers, parks and playgrounds, healthcare facilities or any public building.
Under the law, existing wells that are close to these places can continue to operate, but must monitor emissions, control their dust and limit nighttime noise and light.
But the Trump administration says the law would “knock out” about one-third of all federally authorized oil and gas leases in California, amounting to unconstitutional state regulation of federal lands. In its complaint, the administration argues that federal law — specifically, the Mineral Leasing Act and the Federal Land and Policy Management Act — supersedes SB 1137, and asks that the court declare the state law unconstitutional and prevent it from being enforced.
While the majority of active wells in California are on private and state lands, the federal Bureau of Land Management administers more than 600 oil and gas leases within the state, according to the lawsuit. About 218 of those leases overlap with the buffer zones established by the law.
Officials with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said Thursday they had not yet been served with the lawsuit, but would defend SB 1137 and the health of California communities. Living near oil and gas wells has been linked to a range of adverse health issues stemming from air and water pollution that can be released by drilling and production, especially if a well is leaking badly.
“The Trump administration just sued California for keeping oil wells away from elementary schools, homes, daycares, hospitals, and parks,” said Anthony Martinez, a spokesman for the governor. “Think about that. SB 1137 creates a science-based buffer zone so kids can go to school, families can live in their homes, and communities can exist without breathing toxic fumes that cause asthma, birth defects, and cancer.”
The lawsuit advances an April executive order issued by President Trump titled “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach,” in which the president directed Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi to identify “burdensome and ideologically motivated” state and local regulations that threaten the development of domestic energy resources and take action to stop them.
“This is yet another unconstitutional and radical policy from Gavin Newsom that threatens our country’s energy independence and makes energy more expensive for the American people,” Bondi said in a statement. “In accordance with President Trump’s executive orders, this Department of Justice will continue to fight burdensome regulations that violate federal law and hamper domestic energy production — especially in California, where Newsom is clearly intent on subverting federal law at every opportunity.”
Environmental groups were quick to condemn the action. The oil and gas setback law was hard won after multiple earlier attempts were stymied by opposition from the petroleum industry and trade unions. Its implementation was briefly paused by a 2024 referendum effort led by the California Independent Petroleum Assn., which ultimately withdrew it in light of a groundswell of public resistance.
“Attempting to block the law that protects the air we breathe and the water we drink from oil industry pollution is the Trump administration’s latest attack on our state,” said Kassie Siegel, director of the Climate Law Institute at the nonprofit Center for Biological Diversity. “Big Oil backed down from their deceitful referendum campaign because Californians wouldn’t stand for it. This is a last-ditch attempt to overturn the law’s critical health protections. I’m confident this historic law will stand.”
Rock Zierman, chief executive of the California Independent Petroleum Assn., lauded the Trump administration’s challenge against what it described as an “arbitrary setback law.”
“Just as the state has tried to shut down duly permitted in-state production on private land in violation of the fifth amendment of the U.S. Constitution, so too has the state tried to usurp federal law by shutting down production of minerals owned by the U.S. taxpayers,” Zierman said in a statement Thursday. “We welcome the U.S. Department of Justice joining our fight against these illegal actions that are leading to increased foreign imports.”
The suit marks an escalation of Trump’s battle against Newsom and California over energy and environmental policies. The president, who received substantial donations from oil and gas companies during his 2024 presidential campaign, has moved to block the state’s tailpipe emission standards, clean vehicle targets and renewable energy projects, among other efforts.
Earlier this week, the Justice Department filed another lawsuit against two California cities, Petaluma and Morgan Hill, over ordinances that ban the use of natural gas in new buildings. Both cities said they have not enforced those bans in several years.
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