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Trump’s Cuts to Science Funding Could Hurt U.S. Economy, Study Shows

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Trump’s Cuts to Science Funding Could Hurt U.S. Economy, Study Shows

Cutting federal funding for scientific research could cause long-run economic damage equivalent to a major recession, according to a new study from researchers at American University.

In recent months, the Trump administration has sought to cancel or freeze billions of dollars in grants to scientists at Columbia, Harvard and other universities, and has moved to sharply curtail funding for academic medical centers and other institutions. Deeper cuts could be on the way. As soon as this week, the White House is expected to propose sharp reductions in discretionary spending, including on research and development, as part of the annual budget process.

Economists have warned that such cuts could undermine American competitiveness in areas like vaccine development, artificial intelligence and quantum computing, and could slow growth in income and productivity in the long term. The private sector can’t fully replace government dollars, they argue, because basic research is too risky and takes too long to pay off to attract sufficient private investment.

The study, by a team of economists at American University’s Institute for Macroeconomic and Policy Analysis, is among the first efforts to quantify the risks posed by Mr. Trump’s cuts. Because the full extent of the administration’s plans is not yet clear, the researchers studied a range of scenarios.

Even the mildest approach — a 25 percent reduction in public support for research and development — would correlate to a drop in economic output.

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U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, would be 3.8 percent smaller in the long term — a decline similar in magnitude to that in the Great Recession, which ended in 2009. The drop in output would be much more gradual than that downturn, taking place over years rather than months. But it would also be more lasting. Cuts to scientific research would sap innovation, leading to slower productivity growth and, as a result, permanently lower economic output.

“It is going to be a decline forever,” said Ignacio González, one of the study’s authors. “The U.S. economy is going to be smaller.”

A smaller economy also means less income for the government to tax. As a result, while cutting investment could save money in the short run, it could leave the federal budget in worse shape over the longer term. The researchers estimate that a 25 percent cut to research funding would reduce government revenues 4.3 percent in the long term.

Larger funding cuts would have even greater effects. A 50 percent reduction in funding would lower gross domestic product nearly 7.6 percent, the researchers estimate, and a 75 percent cut would reduce it 11.3 percent — a larger decline than in any recession since the Great Depression.

Such estimates might seem extreme, but they are consistent with other research. A recent paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that government investments in research and development accounted for at least a fifth of U.S. productivity growth since World War II.

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“If you look at a long period of time, a lot of our increase in living standards seems to be coming from public investment in scientific research,” said Andrew Fieldhouse, a Texas A&M economist and an author of the Dallas Fed study. “The rates of return are just really high.”

Political leaders in earlier eras appeared to recognize that payoff. In another recent study, Mr. Fieldhouse found that past efforts to cut the federal budget largely spared investments in nondefense research and development.

In recent weeks, scientists and higher education leaders have tried to rally support among the public and in Congress for continued federal funding. On Tuesday, the Science Coalition, a group of public and private research universities, released a report on the role of federal funding in promoting economic growth. The report highlighted examples of private companies that grew out of government-backed university research.

“Research that’s happening at one university, it doesn’t just stay in those walls — it has a ripple effect,” said Abigail Robbins, president of the coalition. “This is not a blue or red state issue. It transcends that.”

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Testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes could be mandatory. What to know

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Testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes could be mandatory. What to know

When the January 2025 firestorms swept through Altadena and Pacific Palisades they not only burned down homes but left thousands still standing riddled with smoke damage.

The disaster set the stage for lawsuits by fire victims who alleged their homes were filled with toxic contaminants, yet insurers refused to do hygienic testing and properly clean and make them habitable again.

This week, a much-anticipated bill was unveiled in the Legislature that would establish first-in-the-nation limits for smoke-damage contaminants, require testing and force insurers to restore homes to their prior condition.

The proposed law specifically applies to homes damaged in urban or “wildland-urban interface” fires — such as those in January 2025 — where burning structures, cars, utilities and other items generate more toxins than a rural wildfire.

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Authored by Assemblymember Mike Gipson (D-Carson) and sponsored by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, Assembly Bill 1795 follows similar legislation introduced by Assemblymember John Harabedian (D-Pasadena).

That bill would apply to homes, schools and workplaces — and their properties — requiring insurers to meet existing health standards for lead and asbestos cleanup, while having the state develop additional ones for other contaminants.

Lara’s bill also follows a report issued last week by a smoke-damage task force he established last year, which established the framework for the bill. However, consumer advocates said it was stacked with members tied to the insurance industry.

Lara, who has been asked to step down by critics over his handling of insurers’ claims practices, has defended the task force and his handling of the wildfires, noting his department is investigating insurers.

Here’s what to know about the legislation, which still must go through legislative hearings before an Assembly vote.

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Why is this bill a big deal?

Under the current system, insurers are not required to pay for expensive hygienic testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes. That has been a big source of friction with fire victims, fueling the ongoing litigation over the matter.

Under the bill, however, insurers would be required to cover testing for lead, asbestos and other contaminants that have been found in soot, char and ash inside homes after a wildfire. Such testing would be required both before and after any cleanup work has begun to ensure the home is left in “preloss” condition. Additionally, it sets timelines for claims payments and prohibits insurers from halting payments for temporary housing until a home is cleared as safe, if a state of emergency has been declared.

Who will determine what levels of various contaminants are safe?

The bill requires the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop minimum sampling, testing and chemical screening levels by June 30, 2027. The requirements would be most rigorous in a “high-impact” zone within six miles of a fire perimeter, with potentially lesser requirements for residences as they get further away. The zones and testing requirements could be adjusted for specific fires.

The agency also is required to establish training standards and certification requirements for inspectors and others involved in the testing and restoration of properties.

How does this help the January 2025 fire victims?

More than 40,000 insurance claims have been filed as a result of the Eaton and Palisades fires, with more than 13,000 for smoke damage.

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The bill allows the EPA, state and local agencies to establish expedited “interim” standards. Insurance department spokesman Michael Soller said this provision was written with the January 2025 fires in mind.

What do consumer advocates say?

They generally support the proposed changes. Amy Bach, executive director for United Policyholders in San Francisco, who sat on the smoke task force and was critical of its makeup, said she was pleased that the bill “acknowledges the perspectives of the homeowners and will advance their interests in an important way.” But she expects insurers will complain it’s too costly and threaten to leave the state if the bill is not toned down.

Attorney Dylan Schaffer, who has sued the California Fair Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, over its smoke-damage practices, said the bill was a “very strong nod in the right direction” though it will be the final standards established by the state for testing and cleanup that will be most important. “It always gets down to the details,” he said.

What is the industry’s reaction?

The insurance industry is expected to lobby for changes to the bill, suggesting it could impose burdensome costs on companies.

Karen Collins, a vice president of the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn., said that “insurers support science‑based approaches to evaluating smoke damage and guiding appropriate remediation” but want to “help ensure the bill strikes a reasonable balance — protecting consumers while preserving insurance affordability, availability, and market stability.”

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Rex Frazier, president of the Personal Insurance Federation of California, an industry group representing state property and casualty insurers, also said the bill lacks analysis of the “tradeoffs” between the higher claims payments that will result from it and and its effect on consumer premiums.

He also was concerned that the bill appears to bypass traditional rule-making procedures and allow the state EPA to establish the toxic contaminant and other standards without public hearings.

Soller said the intent of the bill is to allow the agency to forgo hearings only in developing interim standards.

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San Diego County agency selling water to keep its high rates in check

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San Diego County agency selling water to keep its high rates in check

San Diego County’s water agency is selling some of its water to another Southern California agency to help limit increasingly high water costs for 3.3 million people.

The water is going to Western Municipal Water District, which serves a growing area of nearly 1 million people in Riverside County, including Corona, Riverside and Temecula.

The San Diego County Water Authority will transfer at least 10,000 acre-feet of water per year over the next 21 years, enough for about 30,000 typical households.

The agencies said the deal will be worth about $100 million over the first five years.

The San Diego County agency has invested heavily to get more water in recent decades. In 2003, it struck an agriculture-to-urban transfer deal and it also buys water from the Carlsbad desalination plant under a 30-year agreement. These actions have brought San Diego County plentiful water — also some of the most expensive in the state. At the same time, conservation efforts in San Diego County have reduced water needs.

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The San Diego County Water Authority delivers water to 22 cities and other agencies. Last year its board approved raising wholesale water rates 8.3%, which drew criticism from residents who said they were already struggling to afford their water bills.

Board Chair Nick Serrano said the deal “allows us to maximize the value of the investments San Diego County residents made over decades, strengthen water reliability, and do so in a way that is mindful of affordability.”

The two agencies said in a joint statement on Thursday that for Western Municipal, the additional water will help during drought and ensure reliable water without the cost and time involved in developing new water infrastructure projects.

The water will move from one area to the other through the pipelines of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the regional wholesaler that imports water from the Colorado River and Northern California. Both San Diego County and Western Municipal are members of the MWD.

An agreement between the MWD and the San Diego County Water Authority last year ended a 15-year legal battle over water costs and cleared the way for San Diego County to start selling some of its excess water to areas that need it.

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Gasoline price gouging in California draws a warning

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Gasoline price gouging in California draws a warning

California’s petroleum market watchdog is warning about price gouging at some gas stations charging over $7 or even $8 a gallon as the Iran war sends oil prices soaring.

The average price of gas in California is currently $5.66, but as of Friday, a Chevron station in Essex is charging $9.69, another in Los Angeles’ Chinatown is charging $8.71, and one in Vidal Junction is charging $7.79, according to GasBuddy, which tracks prices across the country.

“Our team is vigilantly monitoring the retail, wholesale, and spot markets,” said Tai Milder, director of the California Energy Commission Division of Petroleum Market Oversight, in a statement. “Any reports of unfair practices or market manipulation will be taken seriously, and we will not hesitate to refer any illegal conduct for further investigation and prosecution.”

Gas prices have jumped some 30% nationally since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran three weeks ago and Iran blocked 20% of the global oil supply. Californians, who already faced prices over $1 per gallon higher than the national average, are especially feeling the squeeze.

The extremely high prices at some gas stations in California “are not supported by current crude oil prices or gasoline futures,” the division said.

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California’s oil and gas watchdog division was created in 2023 to provide greater insight into the state’s petroleum market after summer gas price spikes exceeded $6 per gallon two years in a row.

The state consistently sees the highest fuel prices in the country due to state taxes and fees, environmental programs, a cleaner fuel blend requirement and an isolated petroleum market, where 80% of gasoline comes from in-state refineries.

This isolation makes California gas prices more sensitive to refinery outages and market manipulation. In 2024 the division reported that, after accounting for environmental rules and taxes, Californians still pay an extra 41 cents more per gallon and the largest share of that goes to industry profit. They also found that the price spikes of the previous two years were caused by refineries going offline without backup supply and “potentially manipulative trading” in those under-supply conditions.

Lawmakers and regulators have been more quiet about price gouging of late and the energy commission put a decision to impose a profit cap on refiners on hold after a series of refinery closures raised concerns about future fuel supply shortages.

Jamie Court, the president of the nonprofit ratepayer advocacy group Consumer Watchdog, said the fact that the gap between national and California prices has widened since the start of the war is evidence of price gouging.

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“We know they made 49 cents per gallon in January,” said Court, of the refineries. “We know now that their margins are closer to $1.25 per gallon,” he said, citing the group’s analysis of state and Oil Price Information Service data.

Chevron said in a statement that most of its gas stations are owned and operated by independent business people who are “free to set the retail price of fuel and other products.”

“Those costs are generally determined by fundamental economic forces like demand, supply and competition,” said spokesperson Ross Allen, who added that crude oil prices, which make up the bulk of gas prices, have gone up but California’s taxes and environmental fees can also add over $1.20 a gallon.

Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Shell did not respond immediately to requests for comment.

The petroleum oversight agency said it reached out to stations where pricing appears “excessive and disproportionate to increases in those sellers’ costs” including “multiple stations in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties, in addition to multiple stations in Northern California” since the war began.

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It also encouraged Californians “to shop around and compare prices between name-brand and unbranded (or generic) gasoline.”

“While retailers typically charge more for branded gasoline, all gasoline sold in California must meet the state’s high standards for emissions control and engine performance,” read the statement.

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