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Trump’s Car Tariffs Worry Toyota and Japan’s Automakers

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Trump’s Car Tariffs Worry Toyota and Japan’s Automakers

Before the election, Toyota Motor and other Japanese automakers thought a second Trump administration could be good for them.

President Trump had campaigned on dismantling policies aimed at swiftly accelerating the U.S. auto industry’s shift away from fossil fuels and to electric vehicles — directives that Toyota and other leading manufacturers of gasoline and hybrid gasoline-electric cars had also long opposed.

Toyota donated $1 million to Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January, and attendees at the company’s dealership meeting in Dallas that month said it was brimming with Trump cheer.

But as Mr. Trump’s agenda has taken shape, much of that optimism has turned to alarm.

In February, the administration signed an executive order imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, where Toyota and other Japanese companies assemble many of the cars they sell in the United States.

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The administration has said that on April 2 it will announce “reciprocal tariffs” on countries that run large trade surpluses with the United States — a move widely expected to affect Japan and its cars.

Japan is one of the world’s largest automobile exporters, and the United States is the biggest market for companies like Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda and Subaru. So, as the tariff deadline approaches, Japan is now preparing for a blow that could be devastating not only to the profits of the nation’s automakers but to its overall economy.

With Japan’s economy already stifled by inflation, some economists estimate that if Mr. Trump’s automotive tariffs take effect as threatened, they could wipe out 40 percent of potential economic growth this year.

Mr. Trump has long had a combative relationship with Japanese car companies. In the 1980s, when he floated the possibility of a presidential run, Mr. Trump railed against auto giants from Japan, once telling Oprah Winfrey that they come to the United States and “knock the hell out of” local manufacturers.

Shortly after Mr. Trump was first elected in 2016, Toyota came forward with plans to invest $10 billion in the United States. Japan’s former prime minister Shinzo Abe — who was considered a skilled Trump whisperer — leveraged the president’s love of adulation and secured a promise not to impose additional duties on Japanese cars.

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Japan’s success in fending off tariffs the first time around was part of the reason many leaders in the automotive industry were sanguine — and even hopeful — about another Trump term. The other reason, especially for Toyota, involved electric vehicles, which Mr. Trump had mostly ridiculed before recently declaring himself a fan of Tesla, the company run by his close adviser Elon Musk.

In the early 2020s, when many of its competitors rushed into electric vehicles, Toyota held firm to the hybrid gas-electric cars it had pioneered decades earlier. The company argued that the world was not fully ready for electric vehicles. They were expensive for consumers and the infrastructure needed to charge their batteries remained incomplete.

Automakers were also mostly selling electric vehicles at a loss. The prospect of Mr. Trump’s rolling back initiatives intended to rapidly spur the transition to electric cars was seen as a way for Toyota to buy time, given that it had only one mass-market electric vehicle available in the United States.

Toyota lobbied against stricter Biden-era tailpipe pollution limits and supported politicians in the United States who were against what it viewed as “mandates” to sell more electric vehicles. Much of this lobbying came via Toyota’s network of car dealerships, some of which, after being prompted by Toyota, conveyed their concerns about a swift transition to electric vehicles to elected officials, according to correspondence viewed by The New York Times.

A spokesman for Toyota said providing customers with affordable vehicles and a variety of options was the best way to reduce emissions as soon as possible, which is the company’s goal. “A consumer-driven market will bring more stability and healthy competition to the auto industry,” he said.

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At the January dealership meeting in Texas, leaders of Toyota’s North America business said that they believed the company had held firm during the presidency of Joseph R. Biden Jr., and that they were now hopeful they had more “like-minded politicians” in positions of power, according to two people who attended the event who were not authorized to talk publicly.

The next month, Mr. Trump outlined plans for tariffs that could hit exports of cars from Canada, Mexico and likely Japan.

The Trump administration’s plans for tariffs have shifted often. But the prospect of new taxes on foreign-made cars is already weighing on Japanese auto companies and some of their dealerships in the United States.

In Maine, Adam Lee is the chairman of Lee Auto Malls, one of the state’s largest auto dealership groups. Lee Auto Malls sells brands including Toyota, and last month it had its worst February in terms of net profit since 2009.

As Mr. Trump has unveiled his tariff agenda over the past two months, “faith in the economy has seemed to be the lowest it has been in a long time,” Mr. Lee said. “People don’t buy cars when the world is in chaos,” he added.

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Analysts expect Japan and South Korea, because of their large presence in the United States and tendency to import many of the cars they sell there, to be the automaking countries most exposed to Mr. Trump’s proposed tariffs.

Toyota made about one million of the 2.3 million cars it sold in the United States last year outside the country. Executives at Nissan and Honda have warned that Mr. Trump’s tariff plans would carve deeply into their earnings.

For Japan, whose top export is cars, a 25 percent tariff on automobile exports to the United States could reduce the country’s gross domestic product by around 0.2 percent this year, according to estimates from Japan’s Nomura Research Institute.

Given that Japan’s economy has a potential growth rate of only around 0.5 percent this year, a 0.2 percent hit to G.D.P. would represent a “considerable blow,” according to the research institute.

For now, some Japanese car companies are trying to accelerate shipments to the United States before April 2. They are also beginning preparations to ramp up production to the extent they can at the 24 manufacturing plants they operate inside the United States.

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Over the past seven decades, Toyota has invested more than $50 billion in the United States, and it will continue to deepen those investments, a spokesman for the company said. Including in the United States, where it directly employs more than 49,000 people, Toyota’s philosophy has always been to “build where it sells and buy where it builds,” he said. Toyota is also fully compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, he added.

Groups representing the automakers in Washington have also been working their contacts on Capitol Hill. They are hoping lawmakers can help make the case for how much Japanese auto manufacturers invest in the United States and how tariffs could hurt American consumers by raising prices.

So far, Japanese officials have failed to gain promises of exemptions from tariffs.

Three people involved in the lobbying efforts, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, say they are repeatedly asked: Are there any new investments they can commit to or ones in the pipeline they can repackage as inspired by the new president?

At the moment, the people said, they do not have new large projects to show.

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Most Japanese automakers do not have excess production capacity in the United States, according to Michael Robinet, a vice president at the automotive intelligence provider S&P Global Mobility. That means that if they want to manufacture more vehicles, they would have to build new factories.

But factories would take years to build and demand significant investments from companies currently facing a “highly unstable trade environment,” Mr. Robinet said. “Automakers are not going to make decisions that have lots of zeros behind them unless they know that they have a solid business case,” he said. “And right now they don’t.”

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Charlie Javice Found Guilty of Defrauding JPMorgan in $175 Million Acquisition

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Charlie Javice Found Guilty of Defrauding JPMorgan in 5 Million Acquisition

Charlie Javice, who made big headlines in 2023 when JPMorgan Chase accused her of faking her start-up’s customer list, was found guilty in federal court Friday of three counts of fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit fraud.

She now faces the possibility of decades in prison.

The bank has its own civil lawsuit on standby as it attempts to claw back some of the $175 million it paid for her company, Frank. It sued her three years ago, and Ms. Javice was arrested at Newark Liberty International Airport not long after that.

Frank, which was founded in 2016, aimed to help customers fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid at a time when the FAFSA was notoriously complicated. Ms. Javice, 32, quickly became a go-to quote for journalists writing about paying for college and turned up on lists of under-30 and under-40 up-and-comers.

Not long after Ms. Javice sold Frank to JPMorgan, there was trouble. The bank ran a test of Frank’s customer list, hoping to persuade its young customers to open Chase accounts. Of 400,000 outbound emails, just 28 percent arrived successfully in an inbox.

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At trial, a bank executive said that it had opened just 10 accounts via the Frank list. It was, as the bank put it in its own legal filing, “disastrous.”

An internal investigation ensued, and the bank claimed to have found evidence that Ms. Javice and Olivier Amar, Frank’s chief growth and acquisition officer, had faked much of its customer list. JPMorgan sued her, and the federal government followed with its own charges, which resulted in the verdict Friday.

Mr. Amar was charged and tried at the same time as Ms. Javice and was also found guilty on all counts. A JPMorgan spokesman declined to comment on the verdict.

During the trial, JPMorgan bank executives said that one appeal of Frank was its promise of over four million customers, with detailed contact information, whom the bank could pitch. The bank could hook young adults with a checking account and potentially keep them and their business through decades of mortgages and retirement savings.

One striking bit of testimony came from Adam Kapelner, an associate professor of mathematics at Queens College, part of the City University of New York. As JPMorgan was performing due diligence, Ms. Javice told him she was in an “urgent pinch” and asked him to use “synthetic data” to create a list of over four million customers from a Frank list she supplied, which had fewer than 300,000 people on it. He asked why, according to his testimony, but she would not tell him.

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“I found my genius,” she said in a text to Mr. Amar at the time.

After Professor Kapelner did some quick work — including pulling an all-nighter — Ms. Javice asked him to remove any specifics about the data from his invoice and paid him $18,000 instead of the $13,300 on his original bill.

According to prosecutors, Ms. Javice and Mr. Amar knew and feared that the bank was going to use Frank’s list for marketing. The pair eventually bought real names and emails from commercial data providers to make it look like Frank really did have millions of customers who had given the company their names and contact information.

This, too, was a rush job to avoid getting caught, according to the prosecution. It produced a text message exchange in which Mr. Amar told Ms. Javice, “You’ll have 4.5 million users today.” She replied, “Perfect. Love you.” Ms. Javice asked for specifics to be removed from an invoice on this transaction as well.

To the prosecution, this was evidence that Ms. Javice was trying to hide her tracks. “Why would you make a fake customer list if you weren’t lying about your customers?” Micah F. Fergenson, an assistant U.S. attorney, said in court Wednesday.

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Russell Vought, Trump’s Budget Chief, Wants to Cut ‘Woke’ Spending

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Russell Vought, Trump’s Budget Chief, Wants to Cut ‘Woke’ Spending

Years before President Trump returned to the White House, his budget chief, Russell T. Vought, began mapping out a plan to shrink the federal government.

In Mr. Vought’s design, spending would be slashed by about $9 trillion over the next decade. Entire federal programs — from housing vouchers to student loans — would be eliminated. The government would fire thousands of civil workers, including those who investigated tax fraud. And Washington would restrict aid to the poor, requiring Americans to work in exchange for benefits.

The ideas formed the bedrock of Mr. Vought’s plan to end the “woke and weaponized” bureaucracy, a policy guide he issued in 2022 for fellow conservatives entering a key budget battle. His full vision did not come to fruition at the time, but the roughly 100-page blueprint has taken on heightened significance since Mr. Trump won re-election — and reinstalled Mr. Vought to his perch — foreshadowing their shared aim to reel in the size and reach of government.

In the perennial fight over the federal balance sheet, few officials are more important than Mr. Vought. As head of the Office of Management and Budget, he wields vast power over the United States government, its workers and the millions of people whose lives are shaped by the ebb and flow of federal funds.

Mr. Vought brings an aggressive style to the job, one revealed in podcast interviews and public writings, particularly in the years after Mr. Trump’s 2020 defeat. A longtime budget expert, he sketched out a vision for expansive presidential power in Project 2025, the conservative blueprint prepared by the Heritage Foundation for Mr. Trump. And in 2021, Mr. Vought founded his own organization, the Center for Renewing America, which describes itself as dedicated to “God, country and community.”

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There, Mr. Vought refined an ambition to marry extreme fiscal austerity with Christian values, pledging to eliminate federal programs seen as too wasteful, “woke” or secular. In scrutinizing the budget, his approach has made him a natural ally of Elon Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

Now back at O.M.B., Mr. Vought has assembled a team of like-minded advisers who are working to prepare Mr. Trump’s 2026 budget proposal. That blueprint may guide Congress in its work to extend a set of expensive and expiring tax cuts enacted in Mr. Trump’s first term.

Documents reviewed by The New York Times showed that as recently as late February, O.M.B. staff were compiling recommendations for sweeping cuts to programs that Republicans have long wanted to slash. Those cuts include imposing work requirements for recipients of food stamps, ending public service student loan forgiveness and phasing out certain federal Medicaid funds for states.

The president and Mr. Vought also subscribe to the idea that the White House should have expansive powers over the nation’s purse strings, halting or canceling federal spending even if Congress instructs otherwise. That stance has emboldened the White House to already interrupt the distribution of billions of dollars, including foreign aid, infrastructure spending and payments to food banks.

The delays have provoked lawsuits, and in a largely unnoticed move, they have triggered an investigation by the Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan watchdog established by Congress that acknowledged its inquiries in February. Some Democrats contend that the budget office has violated the law in other ways, after it quietly disabled a government website on Monday that tracked the regular outflow of federal dollars.

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“Taking down this website is not just illegal, it is a brazen move to hide this administration’s spending from the American people and from Congress,” said Senator Patty Murray of Washington and Representative Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the leading Democratic appropriators, in a statement this week.

Mr. Vought declined through a spokeswoman to be interviewed. In a preamble to his 2022 policy guide, he wrote: “The evidence of America’s fiscal brokenness is everywhere.”

Mr. Vought’s calls for austerity are hardly novel in Washington, where policymakers often lament the nation’s growing $36 trillion debt, but they carry new force at a moment when Mr. Trump looks to reshape the federal bureaucracy.

As DOGE agents blitz federal agencies — shuttering entire programs, dismissing thousands of workers and burrowing into sensitive federal computer systems — Mr. Vought has toiled quietly to lay the foundation for “making these cuts permanent in the long term,” he explained in an interview with Fox Business in February.

The same month, Mr. Vought ordered agencies to submit detailed plans by March and April indicating how they would cut spending, lay off workers and sell office buildings to save money and ensure they “advance the president’s policy priorities,” according to a memo sent to agency leaders.

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James C. Capretta, a former O.M.B. official now serving as a senior fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said Mr. Vought’s actions reflected the view that “the federal executive branch really should be at the service of a president in a manner that goes beyond professional management of the agencies.”

The reorganization arrived weeks after the budget office, under interim leadership while Mr. Vought awaited Senate confirmation, froze nearly all federal spending. While political pressure and multiple lawsuits forced the White House to rescind that policy, budget officials have continued to halt the disbursement of some federal payments. Another arrived this week, when the Trump administration essentially refused to spend about $3 billion in emergency money to combat narcotics and fund other programs, a move that drew a rare bipartisan rebuke in the Senate.

“Every day, there is a headline about another institution, about funding that has been discontinued,” said Skye Perryman, the president of Democracy Forward, a left-leaning advocacy group that has sued O.M.B. over its actions.

The freezes underscored Mr. Vought’s long-held belief that the budget office must serve as the White House “air-traffic control system,” as he wrote in a chapter for Project 2025. There, and in much of his work, Mr. Vought has long criticized civil workers, portraying some of their actions as motivated by their “own agenda.” He previously promised to put them “in trauma,” he said in a video first surfaced by ProPublica.

“They’re constantly hiding the ball,” Mr. Vought said during a May 2023 podcast interview, adding that Republicans needed to “micromanage the heck out of everything that is part of your agency, or make sure that your right arms are.”

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With the help of Mr. Trump, the two men have established a team in recent weeks that echoes Mr. Vought’s views.

The roster includes Mark Paoletta, the budget office’s general counsel, who served with Mr. Vought during the first Trump administration and later at the Center for Renewing America. Mr. Paoletta represented Virginia Thomas, the wife of the Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas, during a House investigation into Mr. Trump’s efforts to remain in power after the 2020 election. Mr. Paoletta drafted the since-revoked order that froze nearly all federal spending.

Jeffrey Bossert Clark, who is serving in a key O.M.B. office that oversees regulation, previously faced possible contempt of Congress charges for refusing to testify about accusations that he sought to undo the results of the 2020 race.

And Dan Bishop, whom Mr. Trump appointed as deputy director, is a former Republican congressman who, while serving in the North Carolina legislature, sponsored a bill that restricted transgender people from using their preferred public restrooms. The Senate confirmed his nomination on Wednesday.

Testifying this month, Mr. Bishop acknowledged that he agreed with those who believe the 2020 election had been rigged. The former congressman said the president had a mandate to pursue “an end to the waste and the Washington status quo.”

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The comments angered Democrats, who recalled Mr. Trump’s first term, when he and Mr. Vought halted congressionally authorized aid to Ukraine in a standoff that laid the groundwork for House Democrats to impeach the president. The budget adviser maintained in 2021 — and, years later, at his own nomination hearing — that the White House had acted lawfully.

After the Senate confirmed him along party lines, Mr. Vought helped to secure a deal to stave off a government shutdown, wooing Republicans with a promise that the administration would take aggressive steps to slash spending. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump signaled that the White House could begin by submitting to Congress a formal list of proposed cuts, reflecting some of the savings identified by DOGE.

“I assume they’ll total everything up and get it to us,” Representative Ralph Norman, a South Carolina Republican and member of the House Budget Committee, said in an interview. “What the president will have will be sweet music to all of us who want a very conservative budget.”

At his Center for Renewing America, Mr. Vought in 2022 previewed his pursuit of stark cuts, targeting benefit programs including Medicaid. He proposed limiting its funding and eligibility, an idea he has resurfaced in recent weeks.

“You can get sizable levels of savings and reforms,” Mr. Vought told the Senate Budget Committee this year.

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The term “woke” appeared 77 times in Mr. Vought’s document. The proposal looked to slash the “woke agenda” at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for example, targeting money meant for “niche and small population groups.” It proposed jettisoning billions of dollars in “woke foreign aid spending”; eliminating entire programs for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender communities; and striking the “secular, woke religion” of climate change from the federal ledger.

“That is the central and immediate threat facing the country — the one that all our statesmen must rise tall to vanquish,” Mr. Vought wrote in the preamble to his budget. “The battle cannot wait.”

Alan Rappeport contributed reporting.

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Trump Threatens Europe and Canada if They Band Together Against U.S.

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Trump Threatens Europe and Canada if They Band Together Against U.S.

President Trump said in a middle-of-the-night social media post early Thursday that he would come after the European Union and Canada if they banded together to “do economic harm” to America, opening a new front in the unfolding trade war.

“If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!” Mr. Trump wrote.

Mr. Trump’s post creates a new problem for the European Union, which is already trying to respond to his tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and potentially a broader array of goods and services.

The United States is by far Europe’s most important trading partner, and the prospect of worse trading conditions has left the European Union scrambling to negotiate. But the Trump administration has showed little appetite to strike a deal so far.

“In the end, as it is said, one hand cannot clap,” Maros Sefcovic, the trade commissioner for the European Union, has said.

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That has left Europeans seeking to strike new alliances and deepen existing trading relationships. And concerns about President Trump’s shifting stance on military support have driven partners like the European Union and Canada closer together. Canada is already working toward providing industrial support for Europe’s rearmament push.

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