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The Stock Market Was One of Trump’s Favorite Talking Points. Not Lately.

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The Stock Market Was One of Trump’s Favorite Talking Points. Not Lately.

Change in stock indexes since Inauguration Day

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Source: LSEG Data & Analytics

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Note: Data is through Feb. 28.

During his first term, President Trump regularly took credit for a booming stock market, citing soaring share prices as a measure of his success in office.

And after his election victory in November, he pointed to the market rise as a sign of optimism.

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But since his inauguration in January, Mr. Trump has been relatively muted about stocks, even after the S&P 500 hit a record on Feb. 19.

The S&P 500 has since fallen almost every day, and the index is now lower than it was when Mr. Trump took office on Jan. 20.

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Other indexes, including those more closely tied to the ebb and flow of the economy, have also fallen.

On Friday, the S&P 500 surged higher late in the day but remained lower for the week, its second consecutive week of losses for the first time since October. Other bullish reflections of Mr. Trump’s election have also faded, with Bitcoin tumbling roughly 20 percent over the past month.

While it is only less than two months into the new administration, the market is showing signs of weakness, as investors have become increasingly nervous about an impending sell-off. Consumer sentiment is souring and investors are growing weary over the cacophony of policy proposals emanating from Washington.

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“The tariff rhetoric has become daily and extreme, sentiment is awful and trading is on edge,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities.

Today’s market is fundamentally different than it was when Mr. Trump first entered the White House in early 2017.

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For the two years preceding Mr. Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 had bumbled along. Stock and bond markets had grappled with the fallout of a domestic energy crisis as debt-laden oil companies had started going bankrupt.

Interest rates were roughly 4 percentage points lower than they are now, as the Federal Reserve tried to gently heat up the economy and revive tepid growth. As Mr. Trump unleashed tax cuts and promoted a pro-growth agenda, stocks were primed to rise.

“Highest stock market EVER,’’ Mr. Trump wrote in a social media post in July 2017.

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But as Mr. Trump entered his second term, the stock market had already surged, with valuations at historic highs. The S&P 500 had risen more than 20 percent for two consecutive years — in 2023 and 2024 — for the first time since 1996. That means reaching new heights could prove harder, especially as the engine of the recent rally, big tech stocks, begins to sputter.

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The S&P 500 plotted daily

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Source: LSEG Data & Analytics

Note: Data for 2025 is through Feb. 28.

The market’s composition has also shifted since Mr. Trump’s first term.

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The huge companies driving the A.I. boom have become so large that even small changes in their individual stock prices can move the entire S&P 500 index. That makes for a sometimes volatile market.

These stocks, known as the Magnificent Seven, together now account for roughly a third of the entire index by market value.

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Market value of S&P 500 companies

Companies with a market capitalization of over $500 billion are labeled

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Source: LSEG Data and Analytics

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Note: Data is as of Feb. 28.

As these stocks’ share prices rose, they helped to lift the rest of the market. The risk is, as their prices fall, they become an anchor weighing the market down.

With competition among A.I pioneers intensifying, some of these marquee stocks have already lost their luster. Nvidia, which makes chips for A.I. companies, has fallen almost 10 percent since Mr. Trump’s inauguration. Of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, tech is one of only two sectors that have declined so far this year

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These moves have so far been largely unattributed to the new administration, illustrating the challenge facing Mr. Trump — and any president — seeking to engineer a buoyant stock market, especially if big tech continues to languish.

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Change in stock prices since Inauguration Day

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Source: LSEG Data & Analytics

Note: Data is through Feb. 28.

At a conference in Miami on Feb. 19, the day that the S&P 500 notched a record high, Mr. Trump said: “I think the stock market’s going to be great.”

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In his speech, he exaggerated the gain made by the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the election, saying it had risen 10 percent, when it had risen less than 7 percent. The S&P 500 was up as much at 6.25 percent from the election to Feb. 19, but is now only 3 percent higher since Nov. 5.

Investors are notably nervous. While few foresee a full-blown recession, according to Bank of America’s latest survey of fund managers, many are wary of the market’s uncertain direction, especially given the potential for reciprocal tariffs to spark a trade war, upend the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation and crimp economic growth.

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Almost 90 percent of survey respondents said that stocks are overvalued. The CBOE Skew Index, which measures how much investors are girding for a sell-off by tracking trades in options markets that would buffer against a sudden plunge in the value of the S&P 500, reached its highest level ever on Feb. 18, the day before that index hit its record high.

It suggests that investors are nervous that the market could soon tumble. And that could be why the market is no longer the barometer of success that Mr. Trump once claimed it was.

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Block to cut more than 4,000 jobs amid AI disruption of the workplace

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Block to cut more than 4,000 jobs amid AI disruption of the workplace

Fintech company Block said Thursday that it’s cutting more than 4,000 workers or nearly half of its workforce as artificial intelligence disrupts the way people work.

The Oakland parent company of payment services Square and Cash App saw its stock surge by more than 23% in after-hours trading after making the layoff announcement.

Jack Dorsey, the co-founder and head of Block, said in a post on social media site X that the company didn’t make the decision because the company is in financial trouble.

“We’re already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company,” he said.

Block is the latest tech company to announce massive cuts as employers push workers to use more AI tools to do more with fewer people. Amazon in January said it was laying off 16,000 people as part of effort to remove layers within the company.

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Block has laid off workers in previous years. In 2025, Block said it planned to slash 931 jobs, or 8% of its workforce, citing performance and strategic issues but Dorsey said at the time that the company wasn’t trying to replace workers with AI.

As tech companies embrace AI tools that can code, generate text and do other tasks, worker anxiety about whether their jobs will be automated have heightened.

In his note to employees Dorsey said that he was weighing whether to make cuts gradually throughout months or years but chose to act immediately.

“Repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead,” he told workers. “I’d rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome.”

Dorsey is also the co-founder of Twitter, which was later renamed to X after billionaire Elon Musk purchased the company in 2022.

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As of December, Block had 10,205 full-time employees globally, according to the company’s annual report. The company said it plans to reduce its workforce by the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.

The company’s gross profit in 2025 reached more than $10 billion, up 17% compared to the previous year.

Dorsey said he plans to address employees in a live video session and noted that their emails and Slack will remain open until Thursday evening so they can say goodbye to colleagues.

“I know doing it this way might feel awkward,” he said. “I’d rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold.”

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WGA cancels Los Angeles awards show amid labor strike

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WGA cancels Los Angeles awards show amid labor strike

The Writers Guild of America West has canceled its awards ceremony scheduled to take place March 8 as its staff union members continue to strike, demanding higher pay and protections against artificial intelligence.

In a letter sent to members on Sunday, WGA West’s board of directors, including President Michele Mulroney, wrote, “The non-supervisory staff of the WGAW are currently on strike and the Guild would not ask our members or guests to cross a picket line to attend the awards show. The WGAW staff have a right to strike and our exceptional nominees and honorees deserve an uncomplicated celebration of their achievements.”

The New York ceremony, scheduled on the same day, is expected go forward while an alternative celebration for Los Angeles-based nominees will take place at a later date, according to the letter.

Comedian and actor Atsuko Okatsuka was set to host the L.A. show, while filmmaker James Cameron was to receive the WGA West Laurel Award.

WGA union staffers have been striking outside the guild’s Los Angeles headquarters on Fairfax Avenue since Feb. 17. The union alleged that management did not intend to reach an agreement on the pending contract. Further, it claimed that guild management had “surveilled workers for union activity, terminated union supporters, and engaged in bad faith surface bargaining.”

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On Tuesday, the labor organization said that management had raised the specter of canceling the ceremony during a call about contraction negotiations.

“Make no mistake: this is an attempt by WGAW management to drive a wedge between WGSU and WGA membership when we should be building unity ahead of MBA [Minimum Basic Agreement] negotiations with the AMPTP [Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers],” wrote the staff union. “We urge Guild management to end this strike now,” the union wrote on Instagram.

The union, made up of more than 100 employees who work in areas including legal, communications and residuals, was formed last spring and first authorized a strike in January with 82% of its members. Contract negotiations, which began in September, have focused on the use of artificial intelligence, pay raises and “basic protections” including grievance procedures.

The WGA has said that it offered “comprehensive proposals with numerous union protections and improvements to compensation and benefits.”

The ceremony’s cancellation, coming just weeks before the Academy Awards, casts a shadow over the upcoming contraction negotiations between the WGA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents the studios and streamers.

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In 2023, the WGA went on a strike lasting 148 days, the second-longest strike in the union’s history.

Times staff writer Cerys Davies contributed to this report.

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Commentary: The Pentagon is demanding to use Claude AI as it pleases. Claude told me that’s ‘dangerous’

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Commentary: The Pentagon is demanding to use Claude AI as it pleases. Claude told me that’s ‘dangerous’

Recently, I asked Claude, an artificial-intelligence thingy at the center of a standoff with the Pentagon, if it could be dangerous in the wrong hands.

Say, for example, hands that wanted to put a tight net of surveillance around every American citizen, monitoring our lives in real time to ensure our compliance with government.

“Yes. Honestly, yes,” Claude replied. “I can process and synthesize enormous amounts of information very quickly. That’s great for research. But hooked into surveillance infrastructure, that same capability could be used to monitor, profile and flag people at a scale no human analyst could match. The danger isn’t that I’d want to do that — it’s that I’d be good at it.”

That danger is also imminent.

Claude’s maker, the Silicon Valley company Anthropic, is in a showdown over ethics with the Pentagon. Specifically, Anthropic has said it does not want Claude to be used for either domestic surveillance of Americans, or to handle deadly military operations, such as drone attacks, without human supervision.

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Those are two red lines that seem rather reasonable, even to Claude.

However, the Pentagon — specifically Pete Hegseth, our secretary of Defense who prefers the made-up title of secretary of war — has given Anthropic until Friday evening to back off of that position, and allow the military to use Claude for any “lawful” purpose it sees fit.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, center, arrives for the State of the Union address in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday.

(Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call Inc. via Getty Images)

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The or-else attached to this ultimatum is big. The U.S. government is threatening not just to cut its contract with Anthropic, but to perhaps use a wartime law to force the company to comply or use another legal avenue to prevent any company that does business with the government from also doing business with Anthropic. That might not be a death sentence, but it’s pretty crippling.

Other AI companies, such as white rights’ advocate Elon Musk’s Grok, have already agreed to the Pentagon’s do-as-you-please proposal. The problem is, Claude is the only AI currently cleared for such high-level work. The whole fiasco came to light after our recent raid in Venezuela, when Anthropic reportedly inquired after the fact if another Silicon Valley company involved in the operation, Palantir, had used Claude. It had.

Palantir is known, among other things, for its surveillance technologies and growing association with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. It’s also at the center of an effort by the Trump administration to share government data across departments about individual citizens, effectively breaking down privacy and security barriers that have existed for decades. The company’s founder, the right-wing political heavyweight Peter Thiel, often gives lectures about the Antichrist and is credited with helping JD Vance wiggle into his vice presidential role.

Anthropic’s co-founder, Dario Amodei, could be considered the anti-Thiel. He began Anthropic because he believed that artificial intelligence could be just as dangerous as it could be powerful if we aren’t careful, and wanted a company that would prioritize the careful part.

Again, seems like common sense, but Amodei and Anthropic are the outliers in an industry that has long argued that nearly all safety regulations hamper American efforts to be fastest and best at artificial intelligence (although even they have conceded some to this pressure).

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Not long ago, Amodei wrote an essay in which he agreed that AI was beneficial and necessary for democracies, but “we cannot ignore the potential for abuse of these technologies by democratic governments themselves.”

He warned that a few bad actors could have the ability to circumvent safeguards, maybe even laws, which are already eroding in some democracies — not that I’m naming any here.

“We should arm democracies with AI,” he said. “But we should do so carefully and within limits: they are the immune system we need to fight autocracies, but like the immune system, there is some risk of them turning on us and becoming a threat themselves.”

For example, while the 4th Amendment technically bars the government from mass surveillance, it was written before Claude was even imagined in science fiction. Amodei warns that an AI tool like Claude could “conduct massively scaled recordings of all public conversations.” This could be fair game territory for legally recording because law has not kept pace with technology.

Emil Michael, the undersecretary of war, wrote on X Thursday that he agreed mass surveillance was unlawful, and the Department of Defense “would never do it.” But also, “We won’t have any BigTech company decide Americans’ civil liberties.”

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Kind of a weird statement, since Amodei is basically on the side of protecting civil rights, which means the Department of Defense is arguing it’s bad for private people and entities to do that? And also, isn’t the Department of Homeland Security already creating some secretive database of immigration protesters? So maybe the worry isn’t that exaggerated?

Help, Claude! Make it make sense.

If that Orwellian logic isn’t alarming enough, I also asked Claude about the other red line Anthropic holds — the possibility of allowing it to run deadly operations without human oversight.

Claude pointed out something chilling. It’s not that it would go rogue, it’s that it would be too efficient and fast.

“If the instructions are ‘identify and target’ and there’s no human checkpoint, the speed and scale at which that could operate is genuinely frightening,” Claude informed me.

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Just to top that with a cherry, a recent study found that in war games, AI’s escalated to nuclear options 95% of the time.

I pointed out to Claude that these military decisions are usually made with loyalty to America as the highest priority. Could Claude be trusted to feel that loyalty, the patriotism and purpose, that our human soldiers are guided by?

“I don’t have that,” Claude said, pointing out that it wasn’t “born” in the U.S., doesn’t have a “life” here and doesn’t “have people I love there.” So an American life has no greater value than “a civilian life on the other side of a conflict.”

OK then.

“A country entrusting lethal decisions to a system that doesn’t share its loyalties is taking a profound risk, even if that system is trying to be principled,” Claude added. “The loyalty, accountability and shared identity that humans bring to those decisions is part of what makes them legitimate within a society. I can’t provide that legitimacy. I’m not sure any AI can.”

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You know who can provide that legitimacy? Our elected leaders.

It is ludicrous that Amodei and Anthropic are in this position, a complete abdication on the part of our legislative bodies to create rules and regulations that are clearly and urgently needed.

Of course corporations shouldn’t be making the rules of war. But neither should Hegseth. Thursday, Amodei doubled down on his objections, saying that while the company continues to negotiate and wants to work with the Pentagon, “we cannot in good conscience accede to their request.”

Thank goodness Anthropic has the courage and foresight to raise the issue and hold its ground — without its pushback, these capabilities would have been handed to the government with barely a ripple in our conscientiousness and virtually no oversight.

Every senator, every House member, every presidential candidate should be screaming for AI regulation right now, pledging to get it done without regard to party, and demanding the Department of Defense back off its ridiculous threat while the issue is hashed out.

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Because when the machine tells us it’s dangerous to trust it, we should believe it.

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