Business
Is this the solution to California's soaring insurance prices due to wildfire risk?
In the past several years, homeowners across the state have been either burdened with extremely high insurance premiums or have struggled to find coverage at all. Wildfires have sent California’s homeowners insurance market into crisis and the situation is only getting worse. So far, 2024 has seen 219,247 acres burned, more than 20 times the amount this time last year. As wildfires become more frequent and destructive, insurers have worked to lower their risk exposure through rate hikes, nonrenewals, and even halting new policies in the state entirely.
New buyers and those whose policies have not been renewed have limited options since the biggest companies, State Farm, Farmers, Allstate, USAA, Travelers, Nationwide and Chubb, have limited or paused new policies in the last few years. Earlier this month State Farm’s cancellations of 30,000 homeowner policies mostly in high wildfire risk areas, took effect. In late June, State Farm requested a 31% rate increase, its largest increase in recent history, on the heels of a 22% increase earlier this year. Allstate also recently filed a request for a significant 34% rate increase.
Homeowners are finding the expense and lack of options unsustainable. Sharon Goldman, longtime resident of the Pacific Palisades, has not had her policy canceled yet, but she has seen increases to her premium and worries she could be next. In her ZIP Code the wildfire risk is high, and State Farm decided to not renew 70% of their policies. Starting in 2019, rates of nonrenewals in high- and very high-risk areas grew to 14% compared with 3% and 2% for moderate- and low-risk areas.
Goldman, using her maiden name out of concern for retribution from State Farm, has paid her premiums each year since she bought her home 50 years ago. She has never filed a claim. But she has seen her rate increase 78% in the past two years. Her agent has told her that her fire coverage will be replaced with the state-run FAIR plan in 2025, an increasingly common insurer strategy that leaves homeowners paying more for less coverage.
Sharon Goldman poses for a portrait in Pacific Palisades in June. She is one of the many California homeowners struggling to maintain home insurance as costs increase and policies are dropped due to wildfire risk.
(Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times)
Goldman and her neighbors are left wondering what options they have left. She hears stories of people paying tens of thousands a year, an impossible amount for her to cover on her retirement budget. She has started looking into moving out of state and out of the home where she raised her children.
While the state does not require insurance, mortgage lenders do. So, going without is not an option for many. Those whose mortgage is paid off, like Goldman, may not be comfortable leaving their home, typically their most expensive asset, uninsured. High rates and loss of fire coverage have pushed desperate homeowners to riskier nonadmitted carriers or to the state-run FAIR plan, meant to be the plan of last resort. But the California Department of Insurance worries that it is quickly becoming overburdened.
Over the past year, Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has been rolling out his plan to increase policy writing in vulnerable areas and get people off of the FAIR plan. One big component of his strategy is allowing insurers to use wildfire catastrophe models to set overall rates. Insurers say the tool would help them more accurately predict the correct rate for the amount of risk.
As a trade-off, Lara says companies that use these models will be required to increase service in distressed areas with a high wildfire risk and a high concentration of FAIR plan policies.
In public workshops held by the Department of Insurance, consumer advocates raised concerns about a lack of transparency with “black box” models that may be used to justify unnecessary rate hikes. Industry advocates are concerned the plan will take too long to implement when they desperately need changes now.
How likely is it a house will be damaged in a wildfire?
There are many versions of catastrophe models. Each modeling company has their own proprietary analysis but they all generally use the same data inputs to answer the same question.
The Harwarden fire burned over 500 acres, destroying three large homes and damaging seven others.
(Jen Osborne / For the Times)
Each modeled event starts with an ignition, the probability that a fire will start at that location, spread, the probability that the fire will travel based on the land cover in the area, and property characteristics. Using those data, the model simulates a large number of possible outcomes for a given location, estimates the likelihood that a structure will burn from wildfire, and calculates the loss for any buildings there.
The USDA Forest Service developed a national analysis of wildfire risk that is similar to what models created for insurance companies would look like. Based on vegetation and fire-behavior fuel models, topographic data, historical weather patterns and long-term simulations of large wildfire behavior, their wildfire likelihood map shows the probability of a fire in any given year.
A critical part of predicting the potential spread of the fire is the available fuel. The Forest Service’s land cover classifications are used in many wildfire models. They specify 40 different fuel types such as grass, shrub, timber, and nonburnable types. Each category is further subdivided based on depth of the cover and humidity or aridity of the climate.
For example, in an arid climate, coarse continuous grass at a depth of 3 feet would have a very high spread rate. A combination of low grass or shrubs and dead leaves or needles in the forest would have a low spread rate.
Property characteristics such as the type of roof or whether the siding is fire-resistive make a significant difference in whether a structure will ignite from wildfire embers. The Center for Insurance Policy and Research found that structural modifications can reduce wildfire risk up to 40%, and structural and vegetation modifications combined can reduce wildfire risk up to 75%.
All of these factors are combined in the model with information about the rebuilding cost and level of coverage to generate an amount of risk unique to the individual property.
Could these models turn the industry around?
Currently, companies are required to calculate their projected losses, on which their overall rates are based, using a historical view of wildfire loss over the previous 20 years. As wildfires increase, however, this means that the average loss trails behind the current state of wildfire risk.
Nancy Watkins, an actuary and principal at the insurance consulting firm Milliman, said that she believes the inclusion of catastrophe models could save the industry. She analyzed the effect of a model on rates compared with using just historical experience. While the rates would generally be higher, the increases would be more even.
In April during a public meeting, Allstate said that if wildfire catastrophe models were allowed, they would once again start writing new policies in the state.
But wildfire catastrophe models are already used by insurance companies in California for some business decisions and have been for some time. They use models to determine where to write or renew policies, which is one of the reasons nonrenewals have disproportionately happened in high-risk areas.
In recent rate filings, Allstate, Farmers and State Farm cited a modeled wildfire risk score as the basis for not renewing policies. Allstate used CoreLogic’s Risk Meter score in 2019 to classify all policies that fell above certain risk thresholds as ineligible for renewal. A 2023 filing from Farmers documents eligibility guidelines for new and renewing policies that sets a risk level using Verisk’s FireLine and Zesty.ai’s Z-FIRE scores. State Farm’s recent 30,000 nonrenewals are based on CoreLogic’s Brushfire Risk Layer.
Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, says that wildfire models worked their way into rates without enough state oversight. “We didn’t regulate the use of risk scores and now [they] are having a dramatic impact on the market and the genie is out of the bottle.”
Some companies use models to assess relative risk between properties and adjust individual rates accordingly. State Farm multiplies its base rate by a location rating factor, calculated using catastrophe models produced by CoreLogic and Verisk. Areas with high wildfire risk have seen dramatic increases in the location rating factor in the past few years.
This process is called segmentation and the Department of Insurance is aware that it is opaque. Department spokesperson Michael Soller says, “People do not know what their risk score is. They don’t know what goes into the risk score. It’s a black box. Yet, the risk score can be used to [charge you] double what somebody else pays.”
While these situations are significant for some, they generally only apply to select high-risk properties. The median effect of the location rating factor has remained fairly stable.
But under the commissioner’s new policy, model results could also be incorporated directly into the overall rate. Soller says that one important difference in this new regulation is that for a model to be valid, it will need to incorporate property and community level risk mitigation into rates, including state agency forest thinning and utility company efforts. As more investment goes into making communities safer, in theory the rates should decrease.
Only you can prevent forest fires?
Wildfire mitigation happens at the state and local level. Since 2020, in addition to baseline spending, California has allocated more than $2.6 billion towards its wildfire and forest resilience package. 872 communities in the state are registered participants in Firewise USA, a program administered by the National Fire Protection Association that sets standards for fire safety.
For an individual, retrofitting one’s home for wildfire resistance is not cheap. On average, homeowners spend $15,000 on a new roof.
As of October 2022, companies such as State Farm that use wildfire models in segmentation are already supposed to give mitigation discounts. A February filing from State Farm breaks down how their discounts would work in a low-, medium- and high-risk area.
For the low-risk group, the dollar amount saved may not be worth the investment in mitigation. For the high-risk group, the slightly lower percentage reductions would still result in more substantial dollar amounts saved.
According to the State Farm documents, these discounts are given at a set rate for all properties across the state. Granular catastrophe models take into account the impact of mitigation on the property level, nearby community mitigation and any recent wildfire history that might indicate a temporarily reduced risk.
However, a complaint raised several times during the regulation workshops was that when homeowners do spend money, often thousands, on lowering risk, they do not see any changes in their insurance premiums. Some say their policies were still dropped.
Goldman has already completed the property-level mitigation work. She has a class A Spanish tile roof. She does the brush clearance every year. This past year it cost about $1,200. She even has an outdoor sprinkler system. But she did not learn about mitigation from her insurance company. Instead, it was on one of Bach’s monthly educational community calls where she got the idea to install fire-resistant vents.
Sharon Goldman walks through the exterior of her home where she has lived for about 50 years and raised four kids in Pacific Palisades. (Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times)
And yet, she has not received a mitigation credit from State Farm and has not received any information about how to receive one. When she asked her agent whether the work she had done on her home qualified for a discount he said no. The Department of Insurance says that they review consumer complaints for rate accuracy and conduct regular examinations of insurance companies. They noted that concerned consumers should contact them to review their specific situation.
Making models a reality
The catastrophe modeling regulation requires insurers to submit their modeling information to the Department of Insurance for review by an internal model advisor and any necessary consultants. Some proprietary information is allowed to remain confidential but proponents of the plan say that the regulators will have all the information they need to assess the models even if the general public does not.
Firefighters work to douse a home on fire in Harwarden Hills, a high-end living community in Riverside.
(Jen Osborne / For The Times)
The department says it is still considering public input from the most recent workshop and has no further plans for additional workshops. Once the regulation is finalized there will be a public hearing. Commissioner Lara plans to have this regulation and the rest of the Sustainable Insurance Plan in place by the end of the year.
In addition to forward-looking catastrophe models, Lara’s plan will introduce the ability for insurance companies to include reinsurance costs in rates and to increase coverage in the FAIR plan. Details for both of those changes are expected to be released this month.
Louis Vuitton is gearing up to go over the top again in Beverly Hills.
With plans for an ultra-opulent hotel on Rodeo Drive stymied by voters two years ago, the Paris fashion house’s owners are back with a proposal for a theatrical flagship store designed by architect Frank Gehry that would anchor the north end of the famous retail corridor.
Luxury goods stores on Rodeo Drive are growing larger as top-shelf retailers increasingly up the ante to dazzle shoppers, and the vision from Louis Vuitton owner LVMH is one of the biggest stores yet with restaurants, rooftop gardens and exhibition space.
Set to open in 2029 pending city approval, the store will stretch through the block from Rodeo Drive to Beverly Drive along South Santa Monica Boulevard. It will be one continuous structure connected across an alley by two pedestrian bridges and a tunnel.
Louis Vuitton said its new store will contain 45,000 square feet on the retail side fronting on Rodeo Drive and an additional 55,000 square feet on the hospitality-focused side of the building off Beverly Drive.
“The new location will take visitors into a full Louis Vuitton lifestyle experience showcasing its diverse universes of products and one-of-a-kind client experiences,” the company said in a statement.
The retail entrance will be on Rodeo Drive, with three floors dedicated to product categories such as women’s and men’s collections, travel, watches and Jewelry, beauty and fragrance. A rooftop level will have private spaces for clients and a garden.
Pedestrians walk past a building at the intersection of Rodeo Drive and Santa Monica Boulevard in Beverly Hills.
(Mel Melcon/Los Angeles Times)
Visitors entering from Beverly Drive will find a cafe and exhibition lobby on the ground floor, two more floors of exhibition space and a rooftop with a restaurant and open-air terrace.
Louis Vuitton representatives declined to offer more details about the exhibitions or the building, but the brand perhaps best known for its signature monogrammed handbags and luggage also has made a reputation promoting art and culture.
In 2014 it opened the Fondation Louis Vuitton in Paris in a building designed by Gehry. The Fondation has art exhibits, concerts, dance performances and organized family activities such as art classes for children.
Gehry has also also collaborated with Louis Vuitton on a collection of handbags reflecting his architectural style, which is known for flowing, curvilinear sculptural forms.
In downtown Los Angeles, Gehry designed the Walt Disney Concert Hall, the Grand L.A. mixed-use complex across the street and the nearby Colburn School performing arts center under construction.
The interior of Luis Vuitton’s Beverly Hills flagship is being designed by another well-known architect, Peter Marino, who designed the existing Louis Vuitton store on Rodeo Drive and the ill-fated Cheval Blanc Beverly Hills hotel intended for the Rodeo Drive site now selected for Louis Vuitton’s new flagship.
New York-based Marino was described by Architectural Digest as “a leading architect for the carriage trade, and the architect for fashion brands.”
Marino once said the Chevel Blanc hotel, which was approved by the city before being vetoed by voters, would improve the pedestrian experience on the northern edge of Rodeo Drive’s famed shopping district, where “people get to the end, shrug their shoulders and walk back.”
The parcels intended for the hotel and now Louis Vuitton are owned by LVMH and were formerly occupied by Brooks Bros. and the Paley Center for Media. The existing unoccupied structures will be razed to make way for the new store.
Merchants on the famous three-block stretch of Rodeo Drive constantly strive to find new ways to call attention to themselves and polish their brand’s image, said real estate broker Jay Luchs of Newmark Pacific, who works on sales and leases of high-end retail properties.
“It’s competitive among brands to always be the best they can be, and they’re not sitting on spaces keeping them stale,” he said. “They’re all always reinventing themselves.”
The expensive changes to their stores are “very obvious,” Luchs said. “It’s almost like an art. The street has different top designers who have made these stores spectacular one after the other.”
Even though retail rents on Rodeo Drive are some of the highest in the country, stores are also getting bigger, the property broker said.
Fifteen years ago, stores on the street were typically 25 feet wide, he said, then gradually many became 50 feet wide, he said. “Now you’re seeing stores 100 feet wide” that may have two different landlords.
A 50-foot lot is “very big,” Luchs said, and can hold a store with 5,000 square feet on each level and may go three stories tall for a total of 15,000 square feet in the store.
The fashion house is also growing in New York, where its flagship store is being replaced with a building that will nearly double its footprint on 57th Street at 5th Avenue, the Architects Newspaper said. Construction has been concealed with a facade that looks like a giant stack of distinctive Louis Vuitton trunks.
In the last several years, YouTube has become an increasingly formidable competitor to streaming services and entertainment studios, providing videos from amateur and professional creators, as well as livestreaming major events and NFL games.
Now its growing threat to studios is playing out in the courts.
The Google-owned platform recently poached Justin Connolly, president of platform distribution from Walt Disney Co.
On Wednesday, Disney sued YouTube and Connolly for breach of contract, alleging that Connolly violated an employment agreement that did not expire until March 2027 at the earliest.
Connolly oversaw Disney’s distribution strategy and third-party media sales for its streaming services like Disney+ and its television networks. He also was responsible for film and TV programming distribution through broadcasting and digital platforms, subscription video services and pay networks.
As part of his role, Connolly led Disney’s negotiations for a licensing deal renewal with YouTube, Disney said in its lawsuit.
“It would be extremely prejudicial to Disney for Connolly to breach the contract which he negotiated just a few months ago and switch teams when Disney is working on a new licensing deal with the company that is trying to poach him,” Disney said in its lawsuit.
Disney is seeking a preliminary injunction against Connolly and YouTube to enforce its employment contract.
YouTube did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At YouTube, Connolly will be become the company’s head of media and sports, where he will be in charge of YouTube’s relationships with media companies and its live sports portfolio, according to Bloomberg.
YouTube accounted for 12% of U.S. TV viewing in in March, more than other streaming services like Netflix, according to Nielsen. YouTube’s revenue last year was estimated to be $54.2 billion, making it the second-largest media company behind Walt Disney Co., according to research firm MoffettNathanson.
Unlike many other major streaming platforms, YouTube has a mix of content made by users as well as professional studios, giving it a diverse and large video library. More than 20 billion videos have been uploaded to its platform, the company recently said. There are over 20 million videos uploaded daily on average.
Streaming services such as Netflix have brought some YouTube content to their platforms, including episodes of preschool program “Ms. Rachel.”On a recent earnings call, Netflix co-Chief Executive Greg Peters named YouTube as one of its “strong competitors.”
Connolly entered into an employment agreement with Disney on Nov. 6, Disney said in its lawsuit. That contract ran from Jan. 1, 2025 to Dec. 31, 2027, with Connolly having the option of terminating the agreement earlier on March 1, 2027, the lawsuit said.
As part of the agreement, Connolly agreed not to engage in business or become associated with any entity that is in business with Disney or its affiliates, the lawsuit said. Disney said YouTube was aware of Connolly’s employment deal with Disney but still made an offer to him.
Entertainment companies have brought lawsuits in the past to stop executive talent poaching by rivals.
In 2020, Activision Blizzard sued Netflix for poaching its chief financial officer, Spencer Neumann. That case was later closed, after Activision asked to dismiss the lawsuit in 2022.
Netflix years ago also faced litigation from Fox and Viacom alleging executives broke their contract agreements to work for the Los Gatos-based streaming service. In 2019, a judge issued an injunction barring Netflix from poaching rival Fox executives under contract or inducing them to breach their fixed-term agreements.
Editorial library director Cary Schneider contributed to this report.
Business
'Lilo & Stitch' and Tom Cruise’s ‘Mission: Impossible' power record Memorial Day weekend box office
A chaotic blue alien and the high-flying escapades of Tom Cruise propelled the Memorial Day weekend box office to record heights, giving relief to theater owners still struggling from a post-pandemic malaise among moviegoers.
Walt Disney Co.’s live-action film “Lilo & Stitch” hauled in $183 million in its opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada, according to studio estimates, placing it in first place. It’s the biggest Memorial Day weekend opener ever, not adjusting for inflation, topping “Top Gun: Maverick,” which debuted with $160.5 million in 2022.
Paramount Pictures and Skydance Media’s “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning” brought in $77 million domestically for second place. “Final Destination Bloodlines,” “Thunderbolts*” and “Sinners” rounded out the top five this weekend.
The two new studio blockbusters were big overseas, too. Globally, “Lilo & Stitch” collected $341.7 million including domestic ticket sales. The worldwide tally for “Mission: Impossible,” the eighth in the series, was $190 million.
“This is just an extraordinary accomplishment after so many people were willing to write off the theatrical business,” said Chris Aronson, Paramount’s president of domestic distribution. “The box office works when there’s something for everybody in the marketplace — and that’s what you’ve seen over this holiday weekend.”
Total box office revenue is projected to reach $325 million in the U.S. and Canada from Friday through Monday, making it the biggest Memorial Day weekend ever, according to noninflation-adjusted estimates from Comscore. The previous biggest weekend came in 2013, which brought in $314 million thanks to movies including “Fast & Furious 6” and “The Hangover Part III.”
Aria Clark fills up her Lilo and Stitch cup with slushy before going into the movie with her mom, Lexi, and brother Leo at AMC Century City.
Historically, the holiday has been one of the biggest moviegoing weekends of the year, serving as a springboard for the busy summer months. But since the 2020 pandemic and the dual writers’ and actors’ strikes in 2023, it has become a less reliable indicator of the theatrical business.
“The calendar thinned out a little bit, particularly post-pandemic,” said Eric Handler, media and entertainment analyst at Roth Capital. “You just didn’t have the depth that you used to have. But it’s good to see that there’s two big event movies this year.”
“Lilo & Stitch” and “Mission: Impossible” also largely catered to different audiences, lowering the risk that audiences would pick and choose between similar films. Box office grosses have typically done better with more genres in theaters.
The reported budget for “Lilo & Stitch” was $100 million, while “Mission: Impossible” reportedly cost $300 million to $400 million to produce, placing it among the most expensive movies ever.
Movie goers attend showings of “Lilo & Stitch” at AMC Century City.
Film-goers, including younger viewers, lined up to see Cruise perform his own stunts in what’s purported to be the final film of the action franchise.
The film set a record for a “Mission: Impossible” opening weekend. It earned $31 million on Imax screens, which contributed 14.2% of the global weekend total, according to Comscore.
“Having this be the biggest opener of the franchise is no small feat, and it speaks volumes to the spectacle that Tom Cruise and [director] Christopher McQuarrie put on the screen,” Aronson said. “This is a theatrical film and there’s no better way to see it than in a theater.”
The strong showing on Memorial Day weekend adds to a solid spring at the box office. Powered by films including Warner Bros. Pictures’ “A Minecraft Movie” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” domestic theatrical revenue for April totaled $875 million, close to the pre-pandemic average of $886 million for the same month from 2015-19, Handler said.
Then in May came Disney and Marvel Studios’ “Thunderbolts*” and Warner Bros. Pictures’ “Final Destination Bloodlines,” which have kept up steady business at theaters.
“This spring has been so good for the box office, it usually means the summer is going to be strong,” said Kimberly Owczarski, associate professor in the department of film, television and digital media at Texas Christian University. “Last year, we didn’t have those big tentpoles in April and early May that usually start the season. Because we’ve had that, people are in the moviegoing mood.”
Last year, the holiday weekend grossed just $132 million, making it the worst Memorial Day weekend box office in nearly 30 years. Films like “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” and “The Garfield Movie” brought in about $30 million each that weekend, a distinct difference from the mega-hauls that blockbusters traditionally gross during Memorial Day weekend.
KK McDermott attends a showing of “Mission: Impossible” at AMC Century City.
The slow start last year to the all-important summer movie season made distributors and exhibitors anxious. It wasn’t until Disney-Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” debuted in mid-June that the box office started to turn around.
This year, however, a seemingly strong lineup of familiar blockbusters for most of the summer has given industry insiders optimism.
Sony Pictures’ “Karate Kid: Legends” comes out at the end of the month, followed by Lionsgate’s “John Wick” spin-off “Ballerina” in early June. Other anticipated releases include Universal Pictures’ live action “How to Train Your Dragon” and “Jurassic World Rebirth,” Disney-Pixar’s original animated film “Elio,” Warner Bros.’ “Superman” and Disney and Marvel Studios’ “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.”
That’s boosted hopes for a stronger overall theatrical business this year.
Analysts say the 2025 domestic box office could gross an estimated $9.2 billion to $9.5 billion, which would be an improvement on last year’s $8.7 billion. More importantly, it’s higher than the 2023 box office total of $9 billion, which would indicate continued growth and a “true recovery,” Handler said.
However, those numbers still pale in comparison with pre-pandemic box office totals, including $11.4 billion in 2019 and $11.9 billion in 2018.
Moviegoers head to showings of “Lilo & Stitch,” one of this Memorial Day weekend’s biggest films at AMC Century City.
Even before the pandemic, theaters were starting to see declines in attendance, a trend that accelerated during COVID-19 when people got used to staying at home and watching movies on streaming platforms. As the pandemic and the strikes decreased the number of movies in theaters, and the length of time between a movie’s theatrical debut and its availability for home viewing shortened, theaters lost more of the crucial business of the casual moviegoer.
“When the content is good, people show up,” Handler said. “The content cycle is favorable right now, and hopefully we’ll see that continue through the next two years.”
Staff writer Meg James contributed to this report.
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