Business
How Trump tariff threats might plunge Mexico into recession and stoke immigration
If former President Trump is reelected and follows through with his promise to slap new tariffs on all imports to the U.S., experts say much of the global economy could be upended. And few countries would be more vulnerable than Mexico.
The economy here is driven almost exclusively by trade, with 83% of exports sent north of the border.
Mexicans are watching the U.S. election anxiously, and bracing for a possible Trump victory over the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kalama Harris. Last week, the peso lost value after polling showed that the former president had taken a slight lead in several swing states.
Economists warn that even a small increase in tariffs on Mexico’s goods could lead to a rise in unemployment and poverty, and some say that could prompt more people to migrate to the United States.
“Even the threat of tariffs will create havoc,” said Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, an economics professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. “It will further reduce Mexico’s long-term economic growth. And it could drive migration to the United States and Canada.”
A worker packages Little Tikes baby swings at the MGA Entertainment factory in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.
(Bloomberg / Getty Images)
Few world economies are more tightly bound than those of the U.S. and Mexico.
In 2023, U.S. exports of goods and services to Mexico totaled $367 billion and imports from Mexico exceeded $529 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, having overtaken China in 2021.
Trump, who has long complained about the exodus of manufacturing jobs from the U.S. to countries such as China and Mexico, says that tariffs will help lure factories back to the United States.
Economists, though, are largely skeptical of that claim. And there’s some evidence that higher tariffs enacted during his presidency have cost American jobs. Many warn that U.S. companies would end up absorbing much of the new taxes, a cost they would pass on to U.S. consumers.
Some economists predict a 20% tariff imposed by Trump would end up costing the average U.S. family $2,600 each year. Harris says it could be higher, adding nearly $4,000 a year to the typical household’s bills, an increase she calls a “Trump sales tax.”
It’s difficult to say exactly what new tariffs would mean for the U.S. and the rest of the world because Trump’s proposals keep changing.
He has vowed, at various points, to impose an across-the-board tax of 10% or 20% on all goods entering the U.S. He’s also threatened tariffs of 60% or higher on imports from China.
In an interview this month with Fox News, he threatened to impose an exorbitant tax on autos imported from Mexico. A big chunk of U.S.-Mexico trade involves cars and auto parts that are transported back and forth across the border for production and final assembly.
“All I’m doing is saying, I’ll put 200[%] or 500%, I don’t care,” Trump said. “I’ll put a number where they can’t sell one car.”
New tariffs could trigger global trade wars because countries would probably retaliate with their own taxes on U.S. imports, targeting in particular farm goods because of the politically sensitive nature of that sector. The International Monetary Fund predicts growth would decelerate worldwide.
Donald Trump has vowed to impose a tariff of 10% or 20% on all goods entering the U.S. and threatened an exorbitant tax on autos imported from Mexico: “I’ll put 200[%] or 500%, I don’t care.”
(Rebecca Blackwell / Associated Press)
But countries such as Mexico, which relies heavily on exports for economic growth, would be especially affected.
The value of Mexico’s exports and imports amounts to almost 90% of the country’s gross domestic product, according to World Bank data. Economists warn that even a small increase in tariffs on goods destined to the U.S. poses serious risks for the economy.
“Under the worst-case scenario, the Mexican economy will fall into recession, the currency will depreciate, and inflation will rise,” reads a report released this month by the economic research firm Moody’s Analytics.
The mere threat of tariffs has already scared off foreign companies from investing in Mexico. Tesla, for example, announced that it was pausing plans to build a new factory in Mexico until after the election because of Trump’s vow to levy taxes against auto imports.
Trump appears willing to target individual companies doing business here, recently threatening 200% tariffs on John Deere if the tractor manufacturer moves production and jobs to Mexico.
“The threat of tariffs and the erratic nature in which Trump might deploy them doesn’t offer any investment certainty,” said Rodrigo Aguilera, an independent economist.
As president, Trump in 2018 imposed tariffs on steel from Mexico and other countries, prompting counter-tariffs on American farm goods and straining U.S.-Mexico relations.
He also threatened broader tariffs on all Mexican goods, but backed off after American business leaders complained that it would hurt them and his administration extracted a promise from Mexican authorities to do more to stop migrants from reaching the U.S. border.
Some Mexican officials have said they don’t believe Trump will follow through with his tariff threats, which aren’t popular in the U.S. and seen as counterproductive for the American economy.
Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s economy secretary, told journalists recently that he believes they are just a campaign tactic. “The United States economy is not a manufacturing economy,” Ebrard said. “And I’m sorry, but it will not be that way again.”
But others fear that Trump, if he wins a second presidency, will be more likely to take dramatic measures on an array of policies because it is likely he would be surrounded by more loyalists.
“Trump is not going to be moderated by more moderate conservatives,” said Pamela K. Starr, a professor of international relations at USC. “The second presidency, I think, will be Trump unleashed.”
Rodrigo Aguilera, an independent economist, said there is no doubt that Trump will “use a tariff threat to force Mexico to collaborate on something he wants, on migration policy or security policy.”
“Mexico,” he said, “will have to try to capitulate.”
If Trump enacts tariffs on Mexico, it would be in violation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a 2020 treaty that replaced the Clinton-era North American Free Trade Agreement. The new treaty, which Trump helped negotiate, calls for generally no tariffs on trade on the North American continent. If the U.S. violated the agreement, Mexico would have permission to retaliate.
When they overlapped in office, Trump and former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador came to an unexpected detente. López Obrador said the two countries’ relationship was built on mutual respect, and famously called Trump “a friend.”
Many think such a relationship may be less likely with the country’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, and Trump, in part because he doesn’t have a good track record of working with female heads of state.
“She’s really smart and a woman, all things that Trump seems to find threatening,” Starr said.
Sheinbaum has largely refrained from commenting on Trump’s tariff threats, except to say that it is the U.S., as much as Mexico, that would suffer if they came to pass.
Free trade, she said recently, “is as important for the United States as it is for Mexico.”
Sheinbaum, who took office this month, inherited an economy that was already on shaky ground. The country faces its largest budget deficit since the 1980s. And while the social programs carried out by her predecessor helped lift some Mexicans from poverty, 36% of the population is still poor, with 7% living in extreme poverty.
Recent developments in domestic politics in Mexico have spooked some investors. Business groups have criticized an ongoing plan to overhaul Mexico’s justice system, which some say will undermine the independence of judges.
In Mexico and much of Latin America, poverty has a direct link to immigration. A severe recession in Mexico in the 1990s contributed to some 5 million Mexicans immigrating to the U.S.
Times staff writer Don Lee contributed to this report.
For the trendiest tenants in Hollywood office buildings, it’s the latest fad that goes way beyond designer furniture and art: mini studios
To capitalize on the never-ending flow of stars and influencers who come through Los Angeles, a growing number of companies are building bright little corners for content creators to try products and shoot short videos. Athletic apparel maker Puma, Kim Kardashian’s Skims and cheeky cosmetics retailer e.l.f. have spaces specifically designed to give people a place to experience and broadcast about their brands.
Hollywood, which hasn’t historically been home to apparel companies, is now attracting the offices of fashion retailers, says CIM Group, one of the neighborhood’s largest commercial property landlords.
“When we’re touring a space, one of the first items they bring up is, ‘Where can I build a studio?’” said Blake Eckert, who leases CIM offices in L.A.
Their studio offices also serve as marketing centers, with showrooms and meeting spaces where brands can host proprietary events not open to the public.
“For companies where brand visibility is really important, there is a trend of creating spaces that don’t just function as offices,” said real estate broker Nicole Mihalka of CBRE, who puts together entertainment property leases and sales.
Puma’s global entertainment marketing team is based in its new Hollywood offices, which works with such musical celebrity partners as Rihanna, ASAP Rocky, Dua Lipa, Skepta and Rosé, said Allyssa Rapp, head of Puma Studio L.A.
Allyssa Rapp, director of entertainment marketing at Puma, is shown in the Puma Studio L.A. The company keeps a closet full of Puma products on hand to give VIP guests. Visits to the studio sanctum are by invitation only, though.
(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)
Hollywood is a central location, she said, for meeting with celebrities, stylists and outside designers, most of whom are based in Los Angeles.
The office is a “creation hub,” she said, where influencers can record Puma’s design prototyping lab supported by libraries of materials and equipment used to create Puma apparel. The company, founded in 1948, is known for its emblematic sneakers such as the Speedcat and its lunging feline logo, and makes athletic wear, accessories and equipment.
Puma’s entertainment marketing team also occupies the office and sometimes uses it for exclusive events.
“We use the space as a showroom, as a social space that transforms from a traditional workplace into more of an experiential space,” Rapp said.
Nontraditional uses include content creation, sit-down dinners, product launches, album listening parties and workshops.
“Inviting people into our space and being able to give them high-touch brand experiences is something tangible and important for them,” she said. “The cultural layer is really important for us.”
The company keeps a closet full of Puma products on hand to give VIP guests. Visits to the studio sanctum are by invitation only, though. There’s no retail portal to the exclusive Hollywood offices.
Puma shoes are on display in the Puma Studio L.A.
(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)
Puma is also positioning its L.A studio as a connection point for major upcoming sporting events coming to Los Angeles, including the World Cup this summer, the 2027 Super Bowl and 2028 Olympics.
In-office studios don’t need to be big to be impactful, Mihalka said. “These are smaller stages, closer to green screen than a massive soundstage.”
Social media is the key driver of content created by most businesses, which may set up small booth-like stages where influencers can hawk hot products while offering discounts to people watching them perform.
Bigger, elevated stages can accommodate multiple performers for extended discussions in front of small audiences, with towering screens behind them to set the mood or illustrate products.
Among the tricked-out offices, she said, is Skims. The company, which is valued at $5 billion, is based in a glass-and-steel office building near the fabled intersection of Hollywood Boulevard and Vine Street.
The fashion retailer declined to comment on the studio uses in its headquarters, but according to architecture firm Odaa, it has open and private offices, meeting rooms, collaboration zones, photo studios, sample libraries, prototype showrooms, an executive lounge and a commissary for 400 people.
Pieces of a shoe sit on a workbench in the Puma Studio L.A.
(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)
The brands building studios typically want to find the darkest spot on the premises to put their content creation or podcast spaces, Eckert said, where they can limit outside light and sound. That’s commonly near the center of the office floor, far from windows and close to permanent shear walls that limit sound intrusion.
They also need space for green rooms and restrooms dedicated to the talent.
Spotify recently built a fancy podcast studio in a CIM office building on trendy Sycamore Avenue that is open by invitation-only to video creators in Spotify’s partner program.
“Ambitious shows need spaces that support big ideas,” Bill Simmons, head of talk strategy at Spotify, said in a statement. “These studios give teams room to experiment and keep pushing what’s possible.”
The rolling robots that deliver groceries and hot meals across Los Angeles are getting an upgrade.
Coco Robotics, a UCLA-born startup that’s deployed more than 1,000 bots across the country, unveiled its next-generation machines on Thursday.
The new robots are bigger, tougher and better equipped for autonomy than their predecessors. The company will use them to expand into new markets and increase its presence in Los Angeles, where it makes deliveries through a partnership with DoorDash.
Dubbed Coco 2, the next-gen bots have upgraded cameras and front-facing lidar, a laser-based sensor used in self-driving cars. They will use hardware built by Nvidia, the Santa Clara-based artificial intelligence chip giant.
Coco co-founder and chief executive Zach Rash said Coco 2 will be able to make deliveries even in conditions unsafe for human drivers. The robot is fully submersible in case of flooding and is compatible with special snow tires.
Zach Rash, co-founder and CEO of Coco, opens the top of the new Coco 2 (Next-Gen) at the Coco Robotics headquarters in Venice.
(Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times)
Early this month, a cute Coco was recorded struggling through flooded roads in L.A.
“She’s doing her best!” said the person recording the video. “She is doing her best, you guys.”
Instagram followers cheered the bot on, with one posting, “Go coco, go,” and others calling for someone to help the robot.
“We want it to have a lot more reliability in the most extreme conditions where it’s either unsafe or uncomfortable for human drivers to be on the road,” Rash said. “Those are the exact times where everyone wants to order.”
The company will ramp up mass production of Coco 2 this summer, Rash said, aiming to produce 1,000 bots each month.
The design is sleek and simple, with a pink-and-white ombré paint job, the company’s name printed in lowercase, and a keypad for loading and unloading the cargo area. The robots have four wheels and a bigger internal compartment for carrying food and goods .
Many of the bots will be used for expansion into new markets across Europe and Asia, but they will also hit the streets in Los Angeles and operate alongside the older Coco bots.
Coco has about 300 bots in Los Angeles already, serving customers from Santa Monica and Venice to Westwood, Mid-City, West Hollywood, Hollywood, Echo Park, Silver Lake, downtown, Koreatown and the USC area.
The new Coco 2 (Next-Gen) drives along the sidewalk at the Coco Robotics headquarters in Venice.
(Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times)
The company is in discussion with officials in Culver City, Long Beach and Pasadena about bringing autonomous delivery to those communities.
There’s also been demand for the bots in Studio City, Burbank and the San Fernando Valley, according to Rash.
“A lot of the markets that we go into have been telling us they can’t hire enough people to do the deliveries and to continue to grow at the pace that customers want,” Rash said. “There’s quite a lot of area in Los Angeles that we can still cover.”
The bots already operate in Chicago, Miami and Helsinki, Finland. Last month, they arrived in Jersey City, N.J.
Late last year, Coco announced a partnership with DashMart, DoorDash’s delivery-only online store. The partnership allows Coco bots to deliver fresh groceries, electronics and household essentials as well as hot prepared meals.
With the release of Coco 2, the company is eyeing faster deliveries using bike lanes and road shoulders as opposed to just sidewalks, in cities where it’s safe to do so. Coco 2 can adapt more quickly to new environments and physical obstacles, the company said.
Zach Rash, co-founder and CEO of Coco.
(Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times)
Coco 2 is designed to operate autonomously, but there will still be human oversight in case the robot runs into trouble, Rash said. Damaged sidewalks or unexpected construction can stop a bot in its tracks.
The need for human supervision has created a new field of jobs for Angelenos.
Though there have been reports of pedestrians bullying the robots by knocking them over or blocking their path, Rash said the community response has been overall positive. The bots are meant to inspire affection.
“One of the design principles on the color and the name and a lot of the branding was to feel warm and friendly to people,” Rash said.
Coco plans to add thousands of bots to its fleet this year. The delivery service got its start as a dorm room project in 2020, when Rash was a student at UCLA. He co-founded the company with fellow student Brad Squicciarini.
The Santa Monica-based company has completed more than 500,000 zero-emission deliveries and its bots have collectively traveled around 1 million miles.
Coco chooses neighborhoods to deploy its bots based on density, prioritizing areas with restaurants clustered together and short delivery distances as well as places where parking is difficult.
The robots can relieve congestion by taking cars and motorbikes off the roads. Rash said there is so much demand for delivery services that the company’s bots are not taking jobs from human drivers.
Instead, Coco can fill gaps in the delivery market while saving merchants money and improving the safety of city streets.
“This vehicle is inherently a lot safer for communities than a car,” Rash said. “We believe our vehicles can operate the highest quality of service and we can do it at the lowest price point.”
President Trump on Friday directed federal agencies to stop using technology from San Francisco artificial intelligence company Anthropic, escalating a high-profile clash between the AI startup and the Pentagon over safety.
In a Friday post on the social media site Truth Social, Trump described the company as “radical left” and “woke.”
“We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!” Trump said.
The president’s harsh words mark a major escalation in the ongoing battle between some in the Trump administration and several technology companies over the use of artificial intelligence in defense tech.
Anthropic has been sparring with the Pentagon, which had threatened to end its $200-million contract with the company on Friday if it didn’t loosen restrictions on its AI model so it could be used for more military purposes. Anthropic had been asking for more guarantees that its tech wouldn’t be used for surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons.
The tussle could hobble Anthropic’s business with the government. The Trump administration said the company was added to a sweeping national security blacklist, ordering federal agencies to immediately discontinue use of its products and barring any government contractors from maintaining ties with it.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who met with Anthropic’s Chief Executive Dario Amodei this week, criticized the tech company after Trump’s Truth Social post.
“Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon,” he wrote Friday on social media site X.
Anthropic didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Anthropic announced a two-year agreement with the Department of Defense in July to “prototype frontier AI capabilities that advance U.S. national security.”
The company has an AI chatbot called Claude, but it also built a custom AI system for U.S. national security customers.
On Thursday, Amodei signaled the company wouldn’t cave to the Department of Defense’s demands to loosen safety restrictions on its AI models.
The government has emphasized in negotiations that it wants to use Anthropic’s technology only for legal purposes, and the safeguards Anthropic wants are already covered by the law.
Still, Amodei was worried about Washington’s commitment.
“We have never raised objections to particular military operations nor attempted to limit use of our technology in an ad hoc manner,” he said in a blog post. “However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values.”
Tech workers have backed Anthropic’s stance.
Unions and worker groups representing 700,000 employees at Amazon, Google and Microsoft said this week in a joint statement that they’re urging their employers to reject these demands as well if they have additional contracts with the Pentagon.
“Our employers are already complicit in providing their technologies to power mass atrocities and war crimes; capitulating to the Pentagon’s intimidation will only further implicate our labor in violence and repression,” the statement said.
Anthropic’s standoff with the U.S. government could benefit its competitors, such as Elon Musk’s xAI or OpenAI.
Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT and one of Anthropic’s biggest competitors, told CNBC in an interview that he trusts Anthropic.
“I think they really do care about safety, and I’ve been happy that they’ve been supporting our war fighters,” he said. “I’m not sure where this is going to go.”
Anthropic has distinguished itself from its rivals by touting its concern about AI safety.
The company, valued at roughly $380 billion, is legally required to balance making money with advancing the company’s public benefit of “responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity.”
Developers, businesses, government agencies and other organizations use Anthropic’s tools. Its chatbot can generate code, write text and perform other tasks. Anthropic also offers an AI assistant for consumers and makes money from paid subscriptions as well as contracts. Unlike OpenAI, which is testing ads in ChatGPT, Anthropic has pledged not to show ads in its chatbot Claude.
The company has roughly 2,000 employees and has revenue equivalent to about $14 billion a year.
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