Business
How Netflix survived the streaming wars to stay the subscription video king
Four years ago, Netflix was faced with a formidable challenge to its dominance. Competitors including Walt Disney Co. and Warner Bros. Discovery invested billions of dollars to chip away at Netflix’s market share by launching splashy shows on their own streaming services.
For a time, it seemed that Netflix was vulnerable. The company lost subscribers for two straight quarters in 2022 despite gargantuan spending, raising concerns that its growth had plateaued.
But lately the tide has turned. Netflix has managed to maintain its position as the leader in subscription streaming, with 260 million paying customers worldwide, far more than its direct competitors. Netflix added more than 13 million subscribers during the fourth quarter. The Los Gatos, Calif.-based company’s stock has surged roughly 90% during the last year.
As a result, many analysts have made a bold proclamation in recent months. The so-called streaming wars are over, they say. Netflix has won. As evidence, they point to rival studios that are now licensing more of their programs to Netflix, including HBO’s “Six Feet Under” and “Insecure,” after years of holding onto their big action movies and popular shows for their own platforms.
“Their competitors are so desperate to make money, they’re giving this content to Netflix,” said Jeffrey Wlodarczak, chief executive of Pivotal Research Group. “This is what winning is.”
Netflix executives, for their part, sound as confident as ever, even as the company continues to make changes, including a recent shakeup in its film business. There’s much more runway for Netflix to grow, Spencer Neumann, Netflix’s chief financial officer, said at a Morgan Stanley conference in San Francisco on Monday.
“We are just getting started,” Neumann said. “Now we’re small in every measure. Every way we look at it, we’re less than 10% of the view share in every country in which we operate, and that’s a pretty small slice of pie.”
How did Netflix defend its bulwark when there are still multiple streaming services fighting for eyeballs?
The streamer has cracked down on password sharing, offering a cheaper ad-supported plan for cost-conscious viewers. Added restrictions on viewers who were borrowing Netflix accounts got people to buy their own subscriptions, helping the company increase net income to $938 million in the fourth quarter, compared to $55 million a year ago, while revenue rose 12.5% to $8.8 billion.
Since then, Disney’s Hulu, Disney+ and ESPN+ and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max also have signaled they will tighten their limits on password sharing.
Netflix also diversified its content beyond scripted programs, adding more reality TV shows, non-English-language originals, live TV, games and sports documentaries to its mix.
And Netflix expanded its sports-related content. In January, the streamer announced it would become the exclusive host to WWE’s weekly pro wrestling show “Raw” in 2025, which analysts say will help boost Netflix’s advertising business and increase WWE’s global reach outside the U.S. “Raw” is the top show on the USA Network, where it brings in 17.5 million unique viewers over the course of the year, WWE and Netflix said.
“Introducing it to a new set of fans as well as servicing the existing fans that are either already Netflix subscribers, or will come over, to me either way is a win,” Brandon Riegg, vice president of nonfiction series at Netflix, said at a press event in Hollywood in January. “The truth is we don’t know how much bigger it can get. I think we’re all really bullish on it.”
A significant factor in Netflix’s lead is that it had a major head start, entering the streaming arena in 2007, much earlier than many of its Hollywood competitors. It set up production hubs in different countries around the world, including South Korea, where Netflix has had success with a pipeline of K-dramas that can be dubbed into many different languages. The company also built a robust platform with recommendations based on a user’s past viewing habits, with trailers and titles promoted tailored to their tastes.
“They built scale quicker than anybody else, and that scale in turn leads to a shorter road for a new original to become a hit because they have such a wider audience available to sample,” said Brandon Katz, industry strategist for Parrot Analytics. “They have done a very good job of maintaining their market-leading position in the streaming industry, even as competition and macroeconomic industry factors have thrown a lot of challenges at them.”
Meanwhile, Wall Street started to turn on legacy media companies including Disney, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, which had sacrificed traditional television and box office revenue to fuel their streaming ambitions. Stock market pressure encouraged those businesses to rein in their spending on direct-to-consumer operations.
Even Walt Disney Co. Chief Executive Bob Iger acknowledged Netflix’s technological prowess at a Morgan Stanley conference on Tuesday.
“We’re now in the process of creating and developing all of that technology, and obviously the gold standard there is Netflix,” Iger said.
“We need to be at their level in terms of technology capability.”
Disney+ has 111.3 million subscribers as of its first fiscal quarter (excluding Disney+ Hotstar). Warner Bros. Discovery counts 97.7 million subscribers in its direct-to-consumer category, which includes Max, HBO, Discovery+ and premium sports product in the fourth quarter.
Netflix also resolved some analyst concerns about its debt levels. In 2021, the streamer said it would no longer need to raise external financing for its day-to-day operations.
And while last year’s six months of Hollywood strikes hobbled film and TV production and thinned out studios’ TV and movie schedules, Netflix appeared to weather the disruption better than many rivals.
Striking writers and actors raised concerns about streaming services, blasting Netflix and others for not financially rewarding them enough when programs became hits. They demanded more data transparency and substantial increases in pay. Some people in the industry called last summer’s labor stoppages the “Netflix strike,” citing changes the company popularized in how the entertainment industry does business. Many productions, including work on the upcoming seasons for “Stranger Things” and “Cobra Kai,” were delayed due to the labor stoppages.
The Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA were able to achieve many of their aims in their new contracts. Nonetheless, Netflix continued to increase its subscriber base during the strikes. One of the titles that gained traction on Netflix over the summer was the legal drama “Suits,” a USA Network series that ran from 2011 to 2019 but gained a new surge of cultural relevance last year when it appeared on the service.
Production overseas also helped, as it is usually less expensive than producing programs in the U.S., analysts said.
“You can see how the content budget would get more bang for its buck if they could actually produce a ‘Squid Game’ every year here in America,” Katz said. “The more they’re able to get some of that South Korean programming, Indian programming, Spanish-language programming, to really kind of pop on the charts here in America, the longer their dollar goes, the less they have to rely on more costly American-made series.”
Two years ago, the future of Netflix was murkier as it navigated a correction in the streaming industry. At the start of the pandemic, streamers including Netflix saw massive growth as people sheltered at home and looked for ways to entertain themselves. But eventually the subscriber growth slowed down, with Netflix reporting a decline in customers in the first half of 2022. The hiccup was startling to investors, considering the sums the company was spending on content, and the stock tumbled.
Netflix laid off hundreds of workers and began investing in new areas of business, including launching an ad-supported streaming plan, after years of being averse to commercials on its platform. It acquired game studios and increased its live event offerings on Netflix with mixed results, including hosting this year’s SAG Awards and, recently, a series in which chef David Chang cooks for celebrities. It’s also held live reality-show reunions and stunt sports events, including “The Netflix Slam” tennis match.
But as Netflix continues to expand its customer base, it will face ongoing competition for customer time and money. Some analysts remain skeptical about the return on investment from the company’s movie strategy, which was a 70-movie schedule in 2021 and included big-budget blockbuster-type action movies like “Red Notice.”
In January, Netflix announced its film chief, Scott Stuber, was leaving in mid-March to start his own media business. His role will be filled by Dan Lin, CEO of production company Rideback, starting in April.
But Netflix has downplayed the notion that the company’s approach to original film is changing. Neumann said having original films on its service is an important part of the entertainment that Netflix provides and the value it delivers to its customers.
“The film business has come a long way. It’s a nice success for us,” Neumann said at the Morgan Stanley conference on Monday. “With Dan, we’re excited to take it to the next level. Just like everything we do. We’re trying to continue to improve, so we’re gonna build from there.”
Business
Scott Bessent, Trump’s Billionaire Treasury Pick, Will Shed Assets to Avoid Conflicts
Scott Bessent, the billionaire hedge fund manager whom President-elect Donald J. Trump picked to be his Treasury secretary, plans to divest from dozens of funds, trusts and investments in preparation to become the nation’s top economic policymaker.
Those plans were released on Saturday along with the publication of an ethics agreement and financial disclosures that Mr. Bessent submitted ahead of his Senate confirmation hearing next Thursday.
The documents show the extent of the wealth of Mr. Bessent, whose assets and investments appear to be worth in excess of $700 million. Mr. Bessent was formerly the top investor for the billionaire liberal philanthropist George Soros and has been a major Republican donor and adviser to Mr. Trump.
If confirmed as Treasury secretary, Mr. Bessent, 62, will steer Mr. Trump’s economic agenda of cutting taxes, rolling back regulations and imposing tariffs as he seeks to renegotiate trade deals. He will also play a central role in the Trump administration’s expected embrace of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
Although Mr. Trump won the election by appealing to working-class voters who have been dogged by high prices, he has turned to wealthy Wall Street investors such as Mr. Bessent and Howard Lutnick, a billionaire banker whom he tapped to be commerce secretary, to lead his economic team. Linda McMahon, another billionaire, has been picked as education secretary, and Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is leading an unofficial agency known as the Department of Government Efficiency.
In a letter to the Treasury Department’s ethics office, Mr. Bessent outlined the steps he would take to “avoid any actual or apparent conflict of interest in the event that I am confirmed for the position of secretary of the Department of Treasury.”
Mr. Bessent said he would shutter Key Square Capital Management, the investment firm that he founded, and resign from his Bessent-Freeman Family Foundation and from Rockefeller University, where he has been chairman of the investment committee.
The financial disclosure form, which provides ranges for the value of his assets, reveals that Mr. Bessent owns as much as $25 million of farmland in North Dakota, which earns an income from soybean and corn production. He also owns a property in the Bahamas that is worth as much as $25 million. Last November, Mr. Bessent put his historic pink mansion in Charleston, S.C., on the market for $22.5 million.
Mr. Bessent is selling several investments that could pose potential conflicts of interest including a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund; an account that trades the renminbi, China’s currency; and his stake in All Seasons, a conservative publisher. He also has a margin loan, or line of credit, with Goldman Sachs of more than $50 million.
As an investor, Mr. Bessent has long wagered on the rising strength of the dollar and has betted against, or “shorted,” the renminbi, according to a person familiar with Mr. Bessent’s strategy who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss his portfolio. Mr. Bessent gained notoriety in the 1990s by betting against the British pound and earning his firm, Soros Fund Management, $1 billion. He also made a high-profile bet against the Japanese yen.
Mr. Bessent, who will be overseeing the U.S. Treasury market, holds over $100 million in Treasury bills.
Cabinet officials are required to divest certain holdings and investments to avoid the potential for conflicts of interest. Although this can be an onerous process, it has some potential tax benefits.
The tax code contains a provision that allows securities to be sold and the capital gains tax on such sales deferred if the full proceeds are used to buy Treasury securities and certain money-market funds. The tax continues to be deferred until the securities or money-market funds are sold.
Even while adhering to the ethics guidelines, questions about conflicts of interest can still emerge.
Mr. Trump’s Treasury secretary during his first term, Steven Mnuchin, divested from his Hollywood film production company after joining the administration. However, as he was negotiating a trade deal in 2018 with China — an important market for the U.S. film industry — ethics watchdogs raised questions about whether Mr. Mnuchin had conflicts because he had sold his interest in the company to his wife.
Mr. Bessent was chosen for the Treasury after an internal tussle among Mr. Trump’s aides over the job. Mr. Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s transition team co-chair and the chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, made a late pitch to secure the Treasury secretary role for himself before Mr. Trump picked him to be Commerce secretary.
During that fight, which spilled into view, critics of Mr. Bessent circulated documents disparaging his performance as a hedge fund manager.
Mr. Bessent’s most recent hedge fund, Key Square Capital, launched to much fanfare in 2016, garnering $4.5 billion in investor money, including $2 billion from Mr. Soros, but manages much less now. A fund he ran in the early 2000s had a similarly unremarkable performance.
Business
As wildfires rage, private firefighters join the fight for the fortunate few
When devastating wildfires erupted across Los Angeles County this week, David Torgerson’s team of firefighters went to work.
The thousands of city, county and state firefighters dispatched to battle the blazes went wherever they were needed. The crews from Torgerson’s Wildfire Defense Systems, however, set out for particular addresses. Armed with hoses, fire-blocking gel and their own water supply, the Montana-based outfit contracts with insurance companies to defend the homes of customers who buy policies that include their services.
It’s a win-win if the private firefighters succeed in saving a home, said Torgerson, the company’s founder and executive chairman. The homeowner keeps their home and the insurance company doesn’t have to make a hefty payout to rebuild.
“It makes good sense,” he said. “It’s always better if the homes and businesses don’t burn.”
Torgerson’s operation, which has been contracting with insurance companies since 2008 and employs hundreds of firefighters, engineers and other staff, highlights a lesser-known component of fighting wildfires in the U.S. Along with the more than 7,500 publicly funded firefighters and emergency personnel dispatched to the current conflagrations, which have burned more than 30,000 acres and destroyed more than 9,000 structures, a smaller force of for-hire professionals is on the fire lines for insurance companies, wealthy individual property owners or government agencies in need of additional hands.
Their presence isn’t without controversy. Private firefighters hired by homeowners directly have drawn criticism for heightening class divides during disasters. This week, a Pacific Palisades homeowner received backlash for putting a call out on X, the social media site formerly named Twitter, for help finding private firefighters who could save his home.
“Does anyone have access to private firefighters to protect our home in Pacific Palisades? Need to act fast here. All neighbors houses burning,” he wrote in the since-deleted post. “Will pay any amount.”
“The epitome of nerve and tone deaf!” someone replied.
In 2018, Kim Kardashian and Kanye West credited private firefighters for saving their $60-million home in the Santa Monica mountains during a wildfire. But those who serve wealthy clients make up only a small fraction of nonpublic firefighters, according to Torgerson.
“Contract firefighters who are hired by the government are the vast majority,” he said. The federal government has been hiring private firefighters since the 1980s to support its own forces. According to the National Wildfire Suppression Assn., there are about 250 private sector fire response companies under federal contract, adding about 10,000 firefighters to U.S. efforts.
Some private firefighting companies, including Wildfire Defense Systems, are known as Qualified Insurance Resources and are paid by insurance companies to protect the homes of their customers. Wildfire Defense Systems refers to its on-the-ground forces as private sector wildfire personnel.
Wildfire Defense Systems only works with the insurance industry, but other privately held firefighting companies contract with industrial clients such as petrochemical facilities and utility providers. Wildfire Defense Systems declined to disclose company revenue or what it charges for its services.
Allied Disaster Defense, a company that has sent personnel to the fires in Los Angeles, offers services to both property owners and insurance companies. Its website says its services will “enhance the insurability of properties” and “contribute to reduced claims.”
The website also has a page dedicated to services for private clients, which include emergency response and assistance with insurance claims for “high net-worth and celebrity” customers. The company does not list prices for its services and has nondisclosure agreements with its private clients.
Several other private firefighting companies are based in California, including Mt. Adams Wildfire, which contracts with government agencies, and UrbnTek, which serves Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego among other areas. Along with spraying fire retardant on trees and brush to stop an advancing fire, the company offers “a double layer of protection by wrapping a structure with our fire blanket system.”
Torgerson, a civil engineer with 34 years in emergency services, said he has been struck by the speed of the current wildfires. While typically it takes two to 10 minutes for a fire to sweep through a home, he said, the Palisades fire is traveling at higher speeds.
“It’s moving so fast, it’ll likely take one to two minutes for these fires to pass over the properties,” he said.
He said his company responded to all 62 of the wildfires that threatened structures in California in 2024 and didn’t lose a property.
Business
As Delta Reports Profits, Airlines Are Optimistic About 2025
This year just got started, but it is already shaping up nicely for U.S. airlines.
After several setbacks, the industry ended 2024 in a fairly strong position because of healthy demand for tickets and the ability of several airlines to control costs and raise fares, experts said. Barring any big problems, airlines — especially the largest ones — should enjoy a great year, analysts said.
“I think it’s going to be pretty blue skies,” said Tom Fitzgerald, an airline industry analyst for the investment bank TD Cowen.
In recent weeks, many major airlines upgraded forecasts for the all-important last three months of the year. And on Friday, Delta Air Lines said it collected more than $15.5 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record.
“As we move into 2025, we expect strong demand for travel to continue,” Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said in a statement. That put the airline on track to “deliver the best financial year in Delta’s 100-year history,” he said.
The airline also beat analysts’ profit estimates and said it expected earnings per share, a measure of profitability, to rise more than 10 percent this year.
Delta’s upbeat report offers a preview of what are expected to be similarly rosy updates from other carriers that will report earnings in the next few weeks. That should come as welcome news to an industry that has been stifled by various challenges even as demand for travel has rocketed back after the pandemic.
“For the last five years, it’s felt like every bird in the sky was a black swan,” said Ravi Shanker, an analyst focused on airlines at Morgan Stanley. “But it appears that this industry does have its ducks in a row.”
That is, of course, if everything goes according to plan, which it rarely does. Geopolitics, terrorist attacks, air safety problems and, perhaps most important, an economic downturn could tank demand for travel. Rising costs, particularly for jet fuel, could erode profits. Or the industry could face problems like a supply chain disruption that limits availability of new planes or makes it harder to repair older ones.
Early last year, a panel blew off a Boeing 737 Max during an Alaska Airlines flight, resurfacing concerns about the safety of the manufacturer’s planes, which are used on most flights operated by U.S. airlines, according to Cirium, an aviation data firm.
The incident forced Boeing to slow production and delay deliveries of jets. That disrupted the plans of some airlines that had hoped to carry more passengers. And there was little airlines could do to adjust because the world’s largest jet manufacturer, Airbus, didn’t have the capacity to pick up the slack — both it and Boeing have long order backlogs. In addition, some Airbus planes were afflicted by an engine problem that has forced carriers to pull the jets out of service for inspections.
There was other tumult, too. Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy. A brief technology outage wreaked havoc on many airlines, disrupting travel and resulting in thousands of canceled flights in the heart of the busy summer season. And during the summer, smaller airlines flooded popular domestic routes with seats, squeezing profits during what is normally the most lucrative time of year.
But the industry’s financial position started improving when airlines reduced the number of flights and seats. While that was bad for travelers, it lifted fares and profits for airlines.
“You’re in a demand-over-supply imbalance, which gives the industry pricing power,” said Andrew Didora, an analyst at the Bank of America.
At the same time, airlines have been trying to improve their businesses. American Airlines overhauled a sales strategy that had frustrated corporate customers, helping it win back some travelers. Southwest Airlines made changes aimed at lowering costs and increasing profits after a push by the hedge fund Elliott Management. And JetBlue Airways unveiled a strategy with similar aims, after a less contentious battle with the investor Carl C. Icahn.
Those improvements and industry trends, along with the stabilization of fuel, labor and other costs, have created the conditions for what could be a banner 2025. “All of this is the best setup we’ve had in decades,” Mr. Shanker said.
That won’t materialize right away, though. Travel demand tends to be subdued in the winter. But business trips pick up somewhat, driven by events like this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
The positive outlook for 2025 is probably strongest for the largest U.S. airlines — Delta, United and American. All three are well positioned to take advantage of buoyant trends, including steadily rebounding business travel and customers who are eager to spend more on better seats and international flights.
But some smaller airlines may do well, too. JetBlue, Alaska Airlines and others have been adding more premium seats, which should help lift profits.
While he is optimistic overall, Mr. Shanker acknowledged that the industry was vulnerable to a host of potential problems.
“I mean, this time last year you were talking about doors falling off planes,” he said. “So who knows what might happen.”
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