Business
Generative A.I. Made All My Decisions for a Week. Here's What Happened.
Relief From Decision Fatigue
Decisions I would normally agonize over, like travel logistics or whether to scuttle dinner plans because my mother-in-law wants to visit, A.I. took care of in seconds.
And it made good decisions, such as advising me to be nice to my mother-in-law and accept her offer to cook for us.
I’d been wanting to repaint my home office for more than a year, but couldn’t choose a color, so I provided a photo of the room to the chatbots, as well as to an A.I. remodeling app. “Taupe” was their top suggestion, followed by sage and terra cotta.
In the Lowe’s paint section, confronted with every conceivable hue of sage, I took a photo, asked ChatGPT to pick for me and then bought five different samples.
I painted a stripe of each on my wall and took a selfie with them — this would be my Zoom background after all — for ChatGPT to analyze. It picked Secluded Woods, a charming name it had hallucinated for a paint that was actually called Brisk Olive. (Generative A.I. systems occasionally produce inaccuracies that the tech industry has deemed “hallucinations.”)
I was relieved it didn’t choose the most boring shade, but when I shared this story with Ms. Jang at OpenAI, she looked mildly horrified. She compared my consulting her company’s software to asking a “random stranger down the road.”
She offered some advice for interacting with Spark. “I would treat it like a second opinion,” she said. “And ask why. Tell it to give a justification and see if you agree with it.”
(I had also consulted my husband, who chose the same color.)
While I was content with my office’s new look, what really pleased me was having finally made the change. This was one of the greatest benefits of the week: relief from decision paralysis.
Just as we’ve outsourced our sense of direction to mapping apps, and our ability to recall facts to search engines, this explosion of A.I. assistants might tempt us to hand over more of our decisions to machines.
Judith Donath, a faculty fellow at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center, who studies our relationship with technology, said constant decision making could be a “drag.” But she didn’t think that using A.I. was much better than flipping a coin or throwing dice, even if these chatbots do have the world’s wisdom baked inside.
“You have no idea what the source is,” she said. “At some point there was a human source for the ideas there. But it’s been turned into chum.”
The information in all the A.I. tools I used had human creators whose work had been harvested without their consent. (As a result, the makers of the tools are the subject of lawsuits, including one filed by The New York Times against OpenAI and Microsoft, for copyright infringement.)
There are also outsiders seeking to manipulate the systems’ answers; the search optimization specialists who developed sneaky techniques to appear at the top of Google’s rankings now want to influence what chatbots say. And research shows it’s possible.
Ms. Donath worries we could get too dependent on these systems, particularly if they interact with us like human beings, with voices, making it easy to forget there are profit-seeking entities behind them.
“It starts to replace the need to have friends,” she said. “If you have a little companion that’s always there, always answers, never says the wrong thing, is always on your side.”
Business
Airlines team up with California to boost adoption of lower carbon jet fuel
San Francisco — Jet airplanes spew enormous amounts of greenhouse gases and noxious chemicals, but the industry insists it wants to clean itself up.
Some of the largest commercial airlines and airborne cargo carriers in the U.S. have banded together to help solve the problem under their trade group Airlines for America. On Wednesday, the group announced a partnership with the California Air Resources Board to set policy to pave the way for wide adoption of sustainable aviation fuels, or SAFs.
Those fuels today are based on food waste and farm crops, although alternatives including hydrogen lie on the horizon. United Airlines started using some SAF in 2015. But SAFs’ share of the market is tiny, and they’re two to three times as expensive as jet fuel — basically kerosene — from refined oil.
Biofuels also draw criticism from many environmentalists because their supply chain still contributes carbon to the atmosphere, and much of what’s burned today is a mix of SAF and fossil jet fuel. And, they say, land used to grow corn and other fuel ingredients could be put to better use.
CARB and the airlines will “work together with sustainable aviation fuel producers, aviation stakeholders, and the federal government to ensure that at least 200 million gallons of cost-competitive options are available for use by airlines within California by 2035,” the air board said in a press release. “A Sustainable Aviation Fuel Working Group of government and industry stakeholders” will be created.
The major focus will be on state and federal financial incentives and permit reform.
The plan was announced at a news conference at San Francisco International Airport on Wednesday. CARB Chair Liane Randolph said that “California is once again demonstrating that smart climate action is good for the environment and good for business.”
“This partnership with the nation’s leading airlines brings the aviation industry onboard to advance a clean air future and will help accelerate development of sustainable fuel options and promote cleaner air travel within the state,” she said.
The 200 million gallons “seems like a pretty modest goal to me,” said Aaron Smith, an agriculture and resources economist at UC Berkeley.
The federal government is aiming to create a supply of 3 billion gallons by 2030, which most industry observers consider an aggressive target.
The passenger airlines and cargo carriers working with the state are Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Atlas Air Worldwide, Delta Air Lines, FedEx, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, UPS and Air Canada.
Business
Boeing is looking to jettison the space business. Why it might hold on to its El Segundo satellite operation
With its manufacturing practices under scrutiny, its machinists on strike and losses piling up, Boeing is said to be considering selling parts of its fabled space business. But few industry analysts think Boeing will put its extensive El Segundo satellite operations on the table.
New Boeing Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg said during a recent earnings call that the aerospace giant was considering shedding assets outside of the company’s core commercial aviation and defense businesses, adding that Boeing was better off “doing less and doing it better than doing more and not doing it well.”
That could mean that Boeing sees no future for its troubled Starliner spacecraft, which was developed to service the International Space Station. The Arlington, Va., aerospace giant also has been trying to exit its United Launch Alliance joint launch venture with Lockheed Martin. Both programs face stiff competition from Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which recently announced it was moving its headquarters from Hawthorne to Brownsville, Texas.
But any asset sale is not expected to encompass Boeing’s satellite manufacturing operations in El Segundo, which include a 1-million-square-foot plant with several thousand workers it acquired in 2000 with its purchase of Hughes Electronics Corp.’s space and communications business.
“It’s not a booming growth business, but there’s no reason for Boeing to get out anytime soon,” said Marco Caceres, an aerospace analyst at Teal Group, noting the continuing demand for the large satellites made at the facility despite changes in the industry.
Shedding parts of it space business would be a landmark decision for Boeing, which has deep ties to the space program in Southern California — where it has built rockets, the X-37 space plane and components for the space station.
Ortberg’s comments come amid manufacturing concerns over its key 737 commercial jet program and a machinists strike that is estimated to be costing $50 million a day. Boeing raised $21 billion in a stock sale this week to shore up its balance sheet.
Boeing also has been the target of multiple whistleblower lawsuits that have alleged lax safety and manufacturing practices that resulted in quality-control issues.
The Wall Street Journal first reported that Boeing was considering selling parts of its space business last week. A Boeing spokesperson said the company “doesn’t comment on market rumors or speculation.”
The El Segundo satellite plant makes large satellites for commercial, government and military customers, including the O3b mPOWER communications satellite for SES, a Luxembourg telecommunications company. Other programs include a $440-million defense contract that Boeing was awarded in March to build another Wideband Global Satcom satellite, which provide fast and secure communications for the U.S. and its allies.
Caceres said manufacturing large satellites remains lucrative for now, though the trend has been for networks of thousands of smaller satellites, such as SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network.
“It’s still a good business but it’s going to be diminished, because it really is these big, mega-constellation systems that are the future,” he said.
In 2018, Boeing acquired a maker of small satellites called Millennium Space Systems, which also is based in El Segundo and whose operations have been partially integrated with the company’s existing plant. The company has received U.S. defense contracts for satellites to detect new threats such as hypersonic missiles.
Other Boeing space businesses in the region expected to survive any restructuring include Spectrolab, a Sylmar subsidiary that makes solar cells for satellites and other space applications. Boeing also is expected to continue its participation in the Space Launch System, a massive rocket developed in Huntsville, Ala., that NASA plans to use to send astronauts back to the moon.
The clearest choice for a possible sale or program closure, analysts agree, is the Starliner capsule built to service the International Space Station with crews and supplies. The spacecraft was manufactured at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and launches from nearby Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.
Boeing was awarded a $4.6-billion contract in 2014 to develop the craft and has been hit with some $1.5 billion in cost overruns, but the vehicle has yet to be certified. Meanwhile, SpaceX was awarded a smaller contract to develop a crewed capsule, based on its existing Cargo Dragon capsule, and that craft has made more than a dozen trips to the station.
In a blow to Boeing, NASA decided in August to have SpaceX return two astronauts brought to the space station by Starliner in June after the capsule developed propulsion problems while docking on its third test flight. Although the Starliner returned remotely in September, NASA and Boeing are still investigating what went wrong.
Also seen as expendable is Boeing’s participation in the United Launch Alliance, a joint venture it formed in 2006. It claims a perfect mission success rate in more than 150 military and commercial launches. ULA is based in Denver and launches from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara County.
The venture introduced its new Vulcan Centaur rocket this year, which is partly reusable and lowers launch costs to about $110 million. It is more powerful than its SpaceX competitor, the Falcon 9, but that rocket has a fully reusable booster and flight costs starting at less than $70 million.
The space industry has been rife with speculation about who might acquire ULA — Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space company has been rumored as a possible buyer — but no deal has emerged, possibly because the price is too high, said Laura Forczyk, executive director of space industry consulting firm Astralytical.
Although the business is not as strong as it used to be, ULA’s reliability, a shortage of launch vehicles and the new rocket’s technical advances means it can still attract business, she said, adding: “There’s just so much demand for launch services.”
Business
Halloween is scaring up big sales for L.A. shops
On the corner of a busy intersection in Culver City, an oversize inflatable witch and racks of costumes draw in customers to Robinson Beautilities.
Inside, overflowing bins of accessories sit among packaged costumes and novelty items. Although the shop’s costume rental service is open year-round, business triples in October, co-owner Dan Levin said.
For many Angelenos, Halloween is a celebration of autumn and a chance to embrace beloved whimsical traditions. It’s also an opportunity to spend as the holiday brings with it a retail frenzy — one that hit record levels last year as consumers across the country spent $12.2 billion on candy, costumes, decorations and more.
This year’s Halloween spending is expected to reach $11.6 billion, according to a National Retail Federation survey. Consumers will spend an average of $103 on the holiday, the survey found, totaling around $3.8 billion on costumes, an equal amount on decorations and slightly less on candy.
Costume hunters at his store typically spend around $150, Levin said. Gary Garland, a Pacific Palisades resident shopping for a costume earlier this week, said he would spend that amount on a costume alone, plus more on other Halloween merchandise.
“Halloween is our favorite holiday,” said Garland, who has two children ages 17 and 22. “We’re all in.”
Many customers are willing to splurge on Halloween, Levin said, especially because the holiday is so popular in Los Angeles.
“They definitely go way all out because you have the Hollywood creative community here,” he said. “This is where movies are made and this is where people dress up.”
Packaged costumes in Levin’s shop sell for around $70, while rental costumes, which are higher quality and more theatrical, range from $80 to $200. Countless more costumes are available at chain retailers including Party City and Spirit Halloween, which offers a Harley Quinn costume for $39.99 and a Catwoman costume for $59.99.
“I don’t think money is an issue, as long as it looks really good and they feel good,” Levin said of his customers. He has noticed an increased focus on accessories and costume details in recent years, he said, especially from shoppers particularly invested in the holiday.
At a Spirit Halloween in Culver City two days before Halloween, customers of all ages roamed the aisles and inspected rubber masks, body paint and wigs. Some shelves were already picked clean.
The National Retail Federation survey found that nearly half of Halloween shoppers begin their spending before October because they’re looking forward to the season and want to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping.
“Halloween marks the official transition to the fall season for many Americans, and consumers are eager to get a jump start on purchasing new seasonal decor and other autumnal items,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a statement.
Spirit Halloween, which operates about 1,500 seasonal stores around the U.S., opens their doors at the end of the summer and stays open until early November.
“A lot of people come in early to get ideas,” Levin said of his store. “Because we’re here year-round, they know they can get the items they want.”
Seventy-two percent of survey respondents said they plan to celebrate Halloween this year by partaking in modern holiday traditions, including handing out candy, decorating their home, dressing in costume and carving pumpkins.
Those traditions cost money, and as they’ve become more popular, Halloween spending has gone up. According to the NRF, national spending has increased by $4.2 billion over the last decade, jumping from $7.4 billion in 2014 to $11.6 billion this year.
The commercialization of Halloween is nothing new, and modern practices such as trick-or-treating became popular in America in the 1920s and 1930s, according to Smithsonian Magazine.
The holiday’s origins date to the 8th century Celtic festival of Samhain, which was intended to ward off the ghosts of the dead that were said to return the night before the fall harvest on Nov. 1. Festival participants wore costumes made from animal skins and lighted huge fires to burn crops as a sacrifice to the deities.
For Garland in the Pacific Palisades, modern Halloween is worth every dollar, even if his family sometimes goes overboard.
“My wife does some of the shopping,” he said. “I don’t want to know what she spends.”
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