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Column: Trumponomics? He would impose the equivalent of a huge tax hike

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Column: Trumponomics? He would impose the equivalent of a huge tax hike

If Donald Trump becomes president again, one of his first moves will take money out of your pocket just as a tax hike would.

Trump hasn’t outlined much of an economic program, but he has promised to impose a massive increase in tariffs on imports from almost all foreign countries — everything from bananas and baby formula to computer chips and machine parts.

And that’s the equivalent of a tax hike, because the costs of tariffs are paid almost entirely by the buyers of imported goods, whether they are Walmart shoppers or U.S. businesses that rely on foreign components.

Trump boasts that the tariffs he imposed in 2018 and 2019 brought billions of dollars into the Treasury, and promises a similar revenue increase in a second term. “The United States will make an absolute FORTUNE,” his campaign website says.

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Here’s the problem: Contrary to what the former president seems to think, tariffs aren’t paid by foreign companies or governments. They’re initially paid by the U.S. companies that import the goods, but those importers almost always pass the cost on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

This time, Trump is proposing a “universal” tariff of 10% on goods from every country in the world. He has also mused about megatariffs of more than 60% that he wants to slap on China in hopes of forcing Beijing to lower its tariffs and treat U.S. companies fairly.

Economists say that either of those proposed tariffs would produce price increases and push inflation upward.

That’s why traditional free-trade Republicans like Nikki Haley and Mike Pence think Trump’s proposal is a bad idea, as does almost every practicing economist.

“It’s lunacy,” said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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But wait — there’s more.

Those increased costs would hit low-income people hardest, because they spend a larger share of their income on goods.

“If baby formula goes up 25%, low-income earners will feel it more than people on Wall Street,” Posen said. “The burden of the tax falls disproportionately on poor people.”

And when the United States imposes tariffs, the targeted country almost always reciprocates.

“They’re not just going to roll over,” Posen said. “And they’re going to be strategic; they’ll pick industries where the U.S. will lose huge market share, because the retaliatory tariffs will drive the price of American products up.”

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We have recent experience with all of these problems, thanks to Trump’s earlier tariffs. Take California almonds, the state’s most valuable export crop.

Until 2018, China bought almost all its almonds from California. But after Trump slapped tariffs on a range of Chinese products that year, China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports, including nuts.

California almond sales plummeted, and Australian growers rushed in to fill the gap. In a report for the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics at UC Davis, economists Sandro Steinbach and Colin A. Carter calculated that the episode cost the state’s almond growers about $875 million in lost income.

Other U.S. exporters to China, from soybean farmers to truck manufacturers, took similar hits.

Those costs might have been tolerable if the tariffs had accomplished their main goal, which was to protect and promote manufacturing jobs in the United States.

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But they didn’t. A slew of economic studies found that Trump’s tariffs had little or no positive effect on the industries they were designed to protect — and that the negative consequences for the economy resulted in a net loss of jobs.

“Import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered U.S. employment in newly-protected sectors,” a team of economists led by David Autor of MIT reported last month.

For example, Trump wanted to protect steel industry jobs from foreign competition, but his tariffs on foreign-made steel didn’t help much. By the end of his presidency in 2021, the steel industry had lost several thousand jobs.

Meanwhile, those tariffs hurt the more numerous jobs in industries that buy foreign-made steel, including automakers and appliance manufacturers.

“For every one steel-producing job, we have about 80 steel-consuming jobs,” Erica York of the conservative-leaning Tax Foundation noted. “All those industries got hit by higher costs, and many of them lost jobs ” — about 75,000 total positions, according to one study.

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But Trump’s tariffs had an important side effect, Autor and his colleagues reported.

“Despite the trade war’s failure to generate substantial job gains, it appears to have benefited the Republican Party” in the Rust Belt, the economists wrote.

Trump “may have garnered support from voters who were skeptical about the favorable economic consequences of tariffs, but who appreciated [his] intention to confront Chinese competition and protect U.S. jobs,” they wrote.

Trump has long described himself as a “Tariff Man” — convinced, in his words, that protectionism “will always be the best way to max out our economic power.”

He’s wrong about that.

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The new tariffs he’s proposed won’t save the economy. But they may help Trump win industrial states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — and that may have been the point all along.

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FAA clears SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket for launch after malfunction

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FAA clears SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket for launch after malfunction

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket has been cleared by the Federal Aviation Administration to resume launch operations after the company determined the cause of an engine failure earlier this month.

The company’s primary commercial rocket was lifting a payload of 20 internet Starlink satellites into orbit on July 11 when the second-stage engine misfired, leaving the satellites in a lower orbit than intended. They later fell to earth and were destroyed in the atmosphere.

SpaceX said Friday the cause of the misfire was a liquid oxygen leak in a line leading to a pressure sensor. The company — whose founder Elon Musk recently announced plans to move the company’s headquarters from Hawthorne, Calif., to the outskirts of Brownsville, Texas — said the leak developed when the line cracked due to a loose clamp.

The FAA said it authorized SpaceX to resume launches on Thursday since the mishap did not endanger the public, but the investigation remains open.

The Falcon 9 has been critical in establishing SpaceX’s Starlink satellite broadband network. It also handles commercial payloads and launches the company’s Dragon capsules, which carry cargo and astronauts to the International Space Station.

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The Falcon 9, which has a reusable first stage, has launched a total 352 missions, according to SpaceX. The company said the first stage used in the failed launch returned to Earth safely. Prior to the mishap, the Falcon 9 had not failed in more than 300 flights.

The rocket last failed in flight in June 2015 when it was carrying out an uncrewed cargo resupply mission to the space station. A Falcon 9 exploded on the launchpad at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in September 2016 during fueling while carrying a satellite payload.

The importance of the rocket to NASA’s space program has been underscored this month by the troubles experienced by Boeing’s Starliner capsule, which is on its third test flight to the space station.

The capsule, intended to give NASA another vehicle to reach the station, launched its first human flight June 5 for what was expected to be an eight-day mission. But it has remained docked to the station for seven weeks due to helium leaks and a malfunctioning of its thruster engines.

NASA and Boeing officials said Thursday that Starliner could be cleared to return the astronauts to earth as soon as next month, but there has been speculation that a Dragon capsule launched by a Falcon 9 may have to retrieve them.

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From Heisman Trophy to SUV, O.J. Simpson property auction approved to pay off civil claims

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From Heisman Trophy to SUV, O.J. Simpson property auction approved to pay off civil claims

O.J. Simpson’s Heisman Trophy, golf clubs, high-end sports utility vehicle and even his driver’s license will soon be sold to pay off a debt the infamous football star carried beyond his own death.

A Nevada probate judge agreed Friday to a proposal by legal representatives of Simpson’s estate to auction “unique and high-profile” personal property, according to attorney’s representing the estate. It is not clear how much money the auction will raise, but it is intended to help pay a portion of a civil claim by the family of murder victim Ron Goldman.

Thomas Grover, who represents Simpson estate attorney Malcolm LaVergne, said the estate was already “beginning the process to auction the items soon.”

The action comes a day after Fred Goldman, father of slain waiter Ron Goldman, filed a creditor claim in Clark County District Court for $117 million against Simpson’s estate.

Michaelle Rafferty, lead attorney for Goldman, said there were no objections from the Goldman family over the auction.

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“Our hope is that Mr. LaVergne will use very reputable auction houses and that those funds will come back to the estate,” Rafferty said Friday afternoon.

Both sides are expected back in court next month.

Ron Goldman’s family won a wrongful death civil case against Simpson in 1997, which found him liable for the murders of Goldman and Simpson’s ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson. The family was initially awarded $8.5 million in compensatory damages.

The jury later awarded $25 million in punitive damages to be split between Nicole Brown Simpson and Goldman family members.

The civil victories came after Simpson’s famous acquittal in the double murder criminal case, known as the “Trial of the Century,” in October 1995.

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The 76-year-old Simpson died in April of prostate cancer.

Fred Goldman and daughter Kim lamented that “true accountability has ended” with Simpson’s death. However, Fred Goldman continued pursuing civil collections.

LaVergne was, at first, hostile to the idea of paying off the civil judgment, telling the Las Vegas Review Journal in an interview two days after Simpson’s passing that the Goldman family would “get zero, nothing.” “I will do everything in my capacity as the executor or personal representative to try and ensure that they get nothing,” he said.

LaVergne mellowed, however, and vowed in an interview with The Times to “handle this thing in a calm and dispassionate manner.”

LaVergne’s retraction did not surprise Rafferty.

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“The situation changes dramatically with a death,” she said. “Mr. LaVergne was representing his client personally, and now it’s about the estate, proceedings and addressing creditors.”

Court documents from 2015 show the family has received about $132,000 of the total liability.

The $117 million claim includes three renewed judgments against Simpson from 2015, 2016 and 2022 along with interest. Statutory interest alone from June 3, 2022, to July 25, 2024, accounted for an additional $20.7 million. Goldman is also claiming a daily amount of accrued interest of at least $16,638.73.

It’s unknown what type of memorabilia or possessions remain on Simpson’s property.

Rafferty said she had not received an inventory from LaVergne and does not know ultimately how much the Goldman family will collect.

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She said LaVergne was obligated to give notice about the intended auction houses, assets and opening bid prices.

“We’ll look it over and we’ll have two weeks to object,” she said.

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After 57 years of open seating, is Southwest changing its brand?

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After 57 years of open seating, is Southwest changing its brand?

Jim Kingsley of Orange County, who recently flew Southwest on a two-leg journey from Minneapolis to Los Angeles, likened the budget-friendly airline to In-N-Out Burger.

Both brands are affordable, consistent and more simplistic compared with competitors, Kingsley said.

“They’re not trying to offer all the things everybody else offers,” he said, “but they get the quality right and it’s a good value.”

Change, however, is in the air.

Southwest, which since its founding nearly 60 years ago has positioned itself in the cutthroat airline industry as an easygoing, egalitarian option, upended that guiding ethos this week with word that it would get rid of its famous first-come, first-seated policy in favor of traditional assigned seats and a premium class option. They will also offer overnight, red-eye flights in five markets including Los Angeles.

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Experts say the changes, especially the switch to assigned seating, are a smart move and will appeal to many as the company tries to stabilize its precarious finances that included a 46% drop in profits in the second quarter from a year earlier to $367 million. But it remains to be seen whether Southwest will pay an intangible cost in making the moves: Will it be able to hold on to its quirky identity or will it put off loyal customers, and in doing so, become just another airline?

“You’re going to hear nostalgia about this, but I think it’s very logical and probably something the company should have done years ago,” said Duane Pfennigwerth, a global airlines analyst at Evercore.

“In many markets away from core Southwest markets, we think open seating is a boarding process that many people avoid,” he said.

That is all well and good, but “I didn’t ask for these changes,” Kingsley said. “Cost and quality is what I care about.”

Open seating has its pros and cons, Kingsley said, though he’s generally a fan. On his trip to Los Angeles, his group wasn’t able to get seats all together. But he likes that preferred seats are available on a first-come, first-served basis, instead of being offered for a high price.

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Eighty percent of Southwest customers and 86% of potential customers prefer an assigned seat, the airline said in a statement.

“By moving to an assigned seating model, Southwest expects to broaden its appeal and attract more flying from its current and future customers,” the airline said.

An even bigger draw of Southwest, according to Kingsley, is its policy of including two free checked bags per ticket. This perk often makes Southwest a better bargain, especially for longer trips or bigger groups, he said.

The free bags are a big deal to customers, experts said, and contribute to the airline’s consumer-friendly brand. The airline hasn’t indicated they plan to change their bag policy.

“Southwest has always had a really good, positive vibe,” said Alan Fyall, chair of Tourism Marketing at the University of Central Florida’s College of Hospitality. “It’s free bags, good prices and point-to-point routes. That’s what they stand for and that’s what people love about them.”

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Southwest’s change to assigned seating doesn’t mean they’re no longer a budget-friendly airline, Fyall said, but it does differentiate them from the lowest-cost, lowest-amenity options such as Frontier and Spirit.

The move will also require Southwest to update all or a portion of its fleet to include first-class seats. Currently, all seats on a Southwest flight are identical. Fyall said it’s worth the investment.

It’s an appropriate time for Southwest to make adjustments, said Chris Hydock, an assistant professor at Tulane University’s Freeman School of Business.

“They’ve not been profitable the last couple of quarters and they’ve had some activist investor pressure to increase their revenue,” he said.

Costs such as wages and maintenance have risen across the airline industry even as travel increased after the pandemic. Southwest saw a net loss of $231 million in the first quarter of 2024. Wall Street analysts estimate that assigned, premium seating could boost revenue by $2 billion per year.

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“This is one of the options where they could potentially increase their revenue and do something that a lot of consumers have a strong preference for anyway,” Hydock said.

For Southwest’s changes to pay off, it has to stick to its roots when it comes to its culture and brand, experts and travelers agreed.

“I love Southwest being different,” Kingsley said. “If they’re trying to be like the other airlines, I think they’re shooting themselves in the foot.”

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