Business
California loves Dungeness crab. But concerns over whale safety have put the industry in peril
BODEGA BAY, Calif. — It was a calm January morning, the waters off Bodega Bay unusually smooth, but crab fisherman Dick Ogg couldn’t shake a grim feeling that the day wouldn’t go his way.
The Dungeness crab season had opened just a few weeks earlier — two months behind schedule — and was off to a slow start. “We’re working very hard to basically get nothing,” said Ogg.
The anemic hauls so early in the season mark the latest setback for California’s commercial Dungeness crab fishery, a roughly $45-million-a-year industry that delivers one of the state’s most iconic culinary delights.
Dick Ogg navigates his boat out of Bodega Bay in the predawn hours of a January morning, setting off for a 16-hour day of crab fishing.
The industry’s future has been complicated by another celebrated sea creature: Each year, a number of humpback whales migrating through California’s waters to and from tropical breeding grounds get entangled in commercial crab fishing gear, encounters that often end in mutilation or death. State regulators are intent on lowering the chances of whales coming into contact with the gear.
There’s reason to be concerned.
Since 1970, when the federal government listed humpback whales as “endangered” after they were hunted to near extinction, the population has made a fragile comeback. Whales along the West Coast have recovered at an estimated annual rate of 8.2% since the 1980s, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with more than 4,500 humpback whales now feeding off California’s coast.
The state Department of Fish and Wildlife has imposed sharp restrictions on the crab industry over the last decade in an effort to protect that progress, as well as to safeguard populations of blue whales, gray whales and the critically endangered leatherback sea turtle.
The annual crab season — which historically ran from late fall to midsummer — has been repeatedly truncated, due to both whale safety concerns and elevated levels of domoic acid, a toxin that builds up in shellfish. This year’s season opened after New Year’s and is likely to end in spring. The shortened timeline gives whales more time to migrate without risk of entanglement, but has cut California’s commercial crabbers out of the lucrative Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s markets, devastating the fleet’s income expectations.
Fisherman Dick Ogg, right, gives instructions to crew members Bradlee Titus, left, and Axel Bjorklund during a disappointing day of crab fishing.
In addition, most of the California crab fleet is under a mandatory order this year to use 50% less gear, meaning the fleet has fewer weeks to fish and can use just a fraction of its traps. And the weeks that are open to crabbing pose some of the most dangerous wind and weather conditions of the season.
“We’ve had times we shouldn’t be out,” said Ogg, 71. “We have to go. We don’t have a choice.”
After making what feels like one concession after the next, he wonders whether the fishery can survive any more changes.
And now the crabs aren’t biting.
“We’ve adjusted almost as much as we possibly can,” Ogg says of the tighter whale safety regulations California has imposed on the crab fishery.
Early on a Thursday in late January, Ogg readied his 54-foot fiberglass boat, the Karen Jeanne, for a 16-hour day of hauling 200 crab pots. It was barely 4:30 a.m. at the Spud Point Marina, and Ogg’s crew, Bradlee Titus, 34, and Axel Bjorklund, 22, both multi-generational fishermen, prepared the deck by washing equipment, filling water buckets and packing jars with bait — a stinky, oily mashup of mackerel and squid. At the helm, Ogg tracked water currents and the weather forecast as he moved the boat out of Bodega Bay, past Point Reyes toward the Farallon Islands and San Francisco skyline.
Ogg was adopted from Japan, and has lived most of his life near Bodega Bay, a fishing town on the Sonoma County coast. He didn’t start out in commercial fishing, but eased into it about 25 years ago, after more than three decades working as an electrician at Sonoma State University.
He is lean and fit from years of diving and martial arts training. As a captain, he is regimented, but also gentle with his crew. He pays them 17% off the top after every trip, no matter how much, or little, crab is brought in. He’ll make a batch of pizza bread before fishing trips and keeps the boat stocked with snacks. On overnight trips, he gives Titus and Bjorklund the cabin below deck, while he sleeps on the floor of the wheelhouse with his three rescue dogs.
This year’s California crabbing season, already truncated, has gotten off to an anemic start.
He bought the Karen Jeanne about 11 years ago. He extended the vessel by 8 feet, adding a new motor and a big tank for the bundles of crab and massive salmon he dreamed of catching — but never eating. Ogg has been vegetarian for more than 40 years.
“For me, it’s about providing that resource,” Ogg said. “The public can’t get out here.”
Crab pots sit on the ocean floor, with more than 200 feet of rope attaching them to buoys at the surface. A bait jar inside the pot tempts the crab into a one-way entrance.
Titus and Bjorklund move in a choreographed dance to haul in the crabs using a process that takes about one minute and 30 seconds per pot: Grab the buoy and attach the rope to a crab hauler; raise the 100-pound pot out of the water; empty the crabs into a holding tank; replace the old bait with a fresh jar; toss the female and small crabs back overboard; and throw the larger males into the tank. Then they push the empty pot back into the water and begin the process again.
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1. Titus, left, and Bjorklund sort Dungeness crabs, throwing back female and undersized crabs. 2. Bjorklund sizes crabs aboard the Karen Jeanne. 3. Ogg, right, and Titus place boxes of bait into a freezer.
The cycle repeats itself hour after hour, a meditation in back-breaking labor, as Ogg navigates through his lines of crab pots. On this day, each pot would yield eight to 12 crabs, a small harvest compared with the dozens of crabs the pots are built to hold. After throwing out the “shorts” and females, they’re lucky to keep two. The team stays focused, but it’s easy to see the disappointment.
“We’re going backwards,” Bjorklund yelled at one point.
Ogg, at the wheel, shook his head. “On this particular trip, I won’t make any money,” he said. The bait alone tallies around $1,200 each trip, on top of fuel costs and upkeep. The one bright spot was that the fleet had negotiated a relatively high price of $7.25 per pound with buyers, meaning even for a low-volume trip he might break even.
Ogg has come to accept the shortened season. He’s cut the number of pots he puts in the water in compliance with state rules. He’s bracing to spend up to $20,000 on fishing lines next season in preparation for new state rules requiring the fishery to use a specific color of rope, in an effort to better identify what gear is entangling the whales.
“We’ve adjusted almost as much as we possibly can,” he said.
He serves on a dozen state and regional committees focused on the Dungeness crab industry. This year, he hopes to be added to a new federal task force set up to find solutions to whale entanglement. Crabbers hope the federal government will relax some regulations, but there’s a chance the task force just adds more.
Seagulls gather off the aft of the fishing boat Karen Jeanne.
Ogg emphasized his respect for whales. “I don’t want to have any problems with these” whales, he said. “I love these animals.”
But he likened fishing to driving a car. You can put on your seat belt and drive slower, but there will still be accidents.
“They want zero entanglements. And zero is not an achievable number.”
There were 34 whale entanglements, including 29 humpbacks, recorded off the Pacific Coast in 2024, a six-year high, according to preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Twenty-seven whales were reported entangled in 2023 and 30 whales in 2022, which environmental groups say is probably an undercount. It’s an improvement from years past; in 2016, 71 whale entanglements were reported off the coasts of Washington, Oregon and California, prompting conservationists to file a lawsuit against California. The settlement agreement led to many of the current regulations.
The humpback whales are divided into subgroups: one that travels to Mexico for the winter, listed as “threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act; and a smaller group that breeds off the coast of Central America, which is listed in the more urgent “endangered” category. Because it’s nearly impossible to distinguish one group from the other, any entanglement is treated as a deadly risk to the endangered population.
“Sometimes they’re able to free themselves. Often they’re not,” said Ryan Bartling, senior environmental scientist at the state Department of Fish and Wildlife.
“They want zero entanglements,” Ogg says of the push for tighter whale protections. “And zero is not an achievable number.”
Here’s where things get complicated. Wildlife groups, the state and fishery leaders disagree on what number of entanglements is “acceptable,” meaning what would constitute a “negligible impact” on the whale population. Federal and state guidance isn’t always clear, often leaving conservationists and crews confused.
Either way, commercial Dungeness crab gear has contributed to an annual average of 5.2 humpback entanglements since 2014, according to national and state data, more than double what federal rules allow.
Nancy Black, a marine biologist and owner of Monterey Bay Whale Watch, is in the camp that wants to see the number of entanglements cut to zero. “I don’t think any of them should be entangled at all,” she said.
Black has seen a steady increase in the humpback whale population in recent decades, and wants to see even greater efforts to reduce run-ins with the crab fishery. She partners with other scientists to report whale entanglements, so rescue teams can be dispatched to save the animals.
“It’s really distressing,” she said. “Especially if you see one that has had it on for a long time, or it’s cutting through its body or it’s wrapped around its mouth.”
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1. Bjorklund throws crab buoys into the sea. 2. Bjorklund stacks crab pots.
Sarah Bates, who commercially fishes salmon, also wants to protect the whales. Commercial fishers are invested in the ocean ecosystem, she said. But there’s a growing concern that the state has prioritized whale safety at the expense of the fishery, even as the whale population increases.
California’s fishery was already struggling from the cancellation of the 2023 and 2024 salmon seasons; salmon counts had plummeted, a crisis attributed to drought and the state’s overtaxed river systems, and the hope was that a reprieve would help their numbers rebound. Now, given restrictions on the crab fleet combined with a low-volume season, “we’re belly-up,” Bates said.
“We’re putting our California fishermen out of business, while we sit and eat Scottish salmon,” says Lisa Damrosch, executive director of the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Assns.
Lisa Damrosch, executive director of the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Assns., noted that the industry is inherently unpredictable.
“The weather, a wild, natural product that you’re not planting or watering or controlling,” said Damrosch, whose family has fished out of Half Moon Bay for over 100 years. “Now we’re adding whales, which are also unpredictable and not something we can control as human beings.”
As the California fishery becomes increasingly regulated, she said, it creates a market of opportunity for someone else.
“We’re putting our California fishermen out of business, while we sit and eat Scottish salmon,” Damrosch said, “and look out at the oceans and feel so good about ourselves.”
In a few weeks, whales could return to California waters, potentially bringing the crab season to a halt.
But Stephen Melz will still be fishing.
Melz lives in Half Moon Bay, and has been commercially fishing for nearly four decades. For the last two years, he’s participated in a pilot program testing pop-up crab gear.
While traditional crab gear uses vertical lines to connect the pots to buoys at the surface, pop-up gear keeps the rope and a flotation device on the ocean floor with the trap. To retrieve the pot, Melz uses an app on his phone that sends an acoustic signal to the trap that releases the rope and buoy, sending them back to the surface.
“It sounded like science fiction to me, but this stuff actually works,” said Geoff Shester, California campaign director and senior scientist at Oceana.
Shester promotes pop-up gear as an alternative to vertical ropes, a shift he believes could protect whales and still establish some stability for crab fishers. The pop-up gear helped bring in 229,000 pounds of crab during the 2024 spring fishery, according to Oceana, “worth $1.5 million, with high reliability and minimal gear loss.”
Many fishermen, including Ogg, remain skeptical. They’ve invested tens of thousands of dollars in their traditional equipment, and don’t trust the pop-up gear success rates touted by environmental organizations.
Melz agrees that traditional gear is far easier to use at the start of the season, when fleets are navigating choppy waters. But in spring, when conditions are more favorable, the pop-up gear is a great option, he said.
“We’d all like to be able to use our traditional gear, absolutely,” he said. “But if we come to a point where the powers that be decide that the whale presence is too much to use traditional gear, and my option is either to use pop-up gear that works excellently, or to be sitting on the dock not working, you can see what answer I’m going to take.”
The morning after Ogg’s long day of pulling pots, he takes the Karen Jeanne to the Tides Wharf, a seafood wholesaler in Bodega Bay, to offload his crabs.
“This might be the smallest load I’ve ever brought in,” Ogg said. “If we have 1,000 pounds, I’d just go nuts.”
“I’m guessing we have 750,” Titus responded.
Titus and Bjorklund shoveled mounds of ice over the crabs, putting them in a hibernating state to make it easier to transfer them into containers to be weighed.
Amid heavier crabbing regulations, Ogg, left, wonders whether there is a future for the young fishermen who serve as his crew members.
As they worked, Ogg flipped through his iPad, pulling up photos from prior seasons. At the start of the 2017 season, the boat’s tank nearly overflowed with crab, netting about $30,000 from one day on the water, even at a wholesale price significantly lower than $7.25 per pound.
He’d like to keep fishing for another 10 years. But it’s getting harder. “I’m still physically capable, but my body is not happy,” he said. And at this rate, he wonders, is there any future left for young fishermen like Titus and Bjorklund?
“It’s going to look completely different,” he said. “There’s going to be regulations that control us. So how do we adapt to make that work?”
The crabs were lifted off the boat and weighed: 855 pounds of fresh crab meat to be transformed into sauteed crab cakes, a Louie salad or thrown into some cioppino.
Gross earnings: $6,200. After paying the crew and the costs of fuel and bait, Ogg would net about $2,000.
Worse than usual. Better than expected. The best part was he didn’t see any whales.
Business
Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperature Prompt Investigation After Unusual Spikes
Early in April, Ruben Hallali got an unusual alert on his phone: The evening temperature at Paris Charles de Gaulle International Airport had jumped about 6 degrees Fahrenheit in seconds.
Mr. Hallali, the chief executive of the weather risk company Sereno, had set up notifications for extreme weather swings. Then, nine days later, it happened again.
“It was an isolated jump, at one single station, early in the evening,” said Mr. Hallali, who added that he noticed another strange coincidence about the spikes: The timing was just right for somebody to reap a windfall on the betting site Polymarket.
He wasn’t the only one who sensed a problem. Météo-France, the country’s national meteorological service, filed a complaint last week with the police and local prosecutors, saying it had evidence that a weather sensor at Charles de Gaulle, the country’s largest airport, may have been tampered with.
The temperature swings, experts said, coincided with a period of unusual activity on Polymarket, one of the leading online prediction markets, which allow users to wager on the outcome of virtually anything.
One increasingly popular area is weather betting, where speculators can make real-time wagers on temperature readings, rainfall totals, the number of Atlantic hurricanes in a year and much more — with payouts in the thousands of dollars and higher.
As the stakes rise, so has the temptation to tamper with the instruments used to generate weather readings in hopes of engineering a lucrative outcome. Experts warn that this could have dangerous ripple effects, like degrading the information that underpins safe air travel.
Temperature data is used in a host of calculations at airports, helping determine correct takeoff distance, climb rate and whether crews need to apply frost treatment to planes. It’s crucial to airport safety, Mr. Hallali said.
“The Charles de Gaulle incident is not an isolated curiosity,” Mr. Hallali said. “It is what happens when financial incentives meet fragile data infrastructure.”
On April 6, the temperature reading at Charles de Gaulle jumped from 64 degrees Fahrenheit to 70 degrees at 7 p.m., before slowly falling over the next hour, according to data from Météo-France.
On April 15, the recorded temperature climbed even more sharply, from 61 degrees at 9 p.m. to 72 at 9:30 p.m., then dropping back to 61 a half-hour later.
In both instances, the spikes set the high temperature for the day, the metric on which some Polymarket wagers rest.
Laurent Becler, a spokesman for Météo-France, said the service contacted the police after noticing the discrepancies in temperature data. He declined to comment further on the case, saying it was under investigation.
Mr. Hallali said that after the first instance, experts and commenters on the French weather forum Infoclimat began to search answers. Theories were floated, including user error. But after the second spike, commenters zeroed in on the unusual Polymarket wagers, which totaled nearly $1.4 million over the two days, according to the company’s data.
The sums bet on April 6 and 15 were hundreds of thousands of dollars higher than on typical days this month.
It is not the first time that strange bets on prediction markets have raised accusations of insider trading.
On Thursday, a U.S. Army special forces soldier who helped capture President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela in January was charged with using classified information to bet on outcomes related to Venezuela, making more than $400,000 on Polymarket. Late last year, another trader on the site made roughly $300,000 betting on last-minute pardons from President Joseph R. Biden Jr. before he left office.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment. While the site used to tie some bets to temperature readings at Charles de Gaulle, this week, after Météo-France filed its complaint, the platform began using temperatures taken at another airport near the city, Paris-Le Bourget, according to recent bets on the site.
Representatives for Charles de Gaulle airport declined to comment beyond saying that the case was under investigation. The airport police also declined to comment. The Bobigny Public Prosecutor’s Office, which is handling the case, declined to answer questions about the investigation but said that no complaint had been filed against Polymarket.
As to how the instruments could have been tampered with, a number of theories have been offered online, including by use of a hair dryer or a lighter. Mr. Hallali said that the precision of the spike on April 15 suggested the use of a calibrated portable heating device, although he declined to speculate about what kind.
“Markets are expanding into every domain where an outcome can be observed, measured, and settled,” he said. “As these markets multiply, so does the surface area for manipulation.”
Business
California’s jet fuel stockpile hits two-year low as war strangles oil supplies
As the war in Iran strangles the flow of oil around the globe, California’s jet fuel reservoirs are running low.
The state — which refines much of its own fuel in El Segundo and elsewhere but still relies on crude oil imports — has seen its jet fuel stock decline by more than 25% from last year’s peak to a level not seen since 2023, according to data from the California Energy Commission.
The supply is shrinking as a global shortage is already affecting travelers’ summer plans with canceled flights and higher fares. It could even affect plans for people coming to Los Angeles for the 2026 World Cup, which starts in June, said Mike Duignan, a hospitality expert and professor at Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University.
“People don’t know exactly how this is going to escalate,” he said. “There’s a huge black cloud over the sea for the World Cup and the travel slump that we’re seeing is all linked to this oil shortage.”
As fuel supplies shrink, flight prices are rising. Airlines are adding baggage surcharges to cover fuel costs. Several routes leaving from smaller California hubs, including Sacramento and Burbank, have already been canceled.
Air Canada has suspended flights for this summer, cutting routes from JFK to Toronto and Montreal.
“Jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict, affecting some lower profitability routes and flights which now are no longer economically feasible,” the airline said in a statement last week.
Europe had just more than a month’s supply of jet fuel left last week, the International Energy Agency said. In an effort to cut costs, the German airline Lufthansa slashed 20,000 flights from its summer schedule this week.
Without a fresh oil supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation is unlikely to improve, experts said. The oil reserves countries and companies have in storage are helping fill shortfalls, but the squeezed supply chain could still wreak economic havoc.
“When there’s a shortage somewhere, everything is affected,” said Alan Fyall, an associate dean of the University of Central Florida Rosen College of Hospitality Management. “Airlines are being cautious, and I would say that is a very wise strategy at the moment.”
California’s jet fuel stock reached its lowest levels in two and a half years at 2.6 million barrels last week, down from a peak of more than 3.5 million barrels last year.
The California Energy Commission, which tracks fuel inventory, said the state’s current jet fuel stock is sill sufficient.
“Current production and inventory levels of jet fuel are within historical ranges,” a spokesperson said. “Although supply is tight, no structural deficit has emerged yet. The present tightness reflects short‑term global market stress. As long as refinery operations remain stable, California is positioned to meet regional jet fuel needs.”
Europe has been affected more directly because it relies on the Middle East for the vast majority of its crude oil and many refined products, experts said. California gets crude oil from the Middle East but also from Canada, Argentina and Guyana.
The state has the capacity to refine around 200,000 barrels of jet fuel per day, most of it from refineries in El Segundo and Richmond.
The amount of crude oil originating in the state has been declining since the early 2000s, as state regulations and drilling costs have led to more imports.
California has become particularly vulnerable to supply-chain shocks like the war in Iran, says Chevron, one of the companies that provides jet fuel in the state.
“The conflict in the Mideast Gulf has exposed the danger of California’s decision to offshore energy production,” said Ross Allen, a Chevron spokesperson. “Taxes, red tape and burdensome regulations cost the state nearly 18% of its refinery capacity in just the past year, and we urge policymakers to protect the remaining manufacturing capacity.”
In 2025, 61% of crude oil supply to California’s refineries came from foreign sources, according to the California Energy Commission. Around 23% came from inside the state, down from 35% five years ago.
The state’s refining capacity has also been declining, said Jesus David, senior vice president of Energy at IIR Energy. The West Coast region’s refining capacity has decreased from 2.9 million to 2.3 million barrels a day since 2019, he said.
“California’s had issues prior to the war,” David said. “Nothing new has been built over the past 30 years, and California has closed a lot of capacity.”
The result is higher prices for both gasoline and jet fuel in the state. Jet fuel at LAX costs close to $15 per gallon this week, compared with almost $10 at Denver International Airport and $11 at Newark International Airport.
Gasoline prices have also been hit hard by the global conflict. Average gas prices in California are close to $6 a gallon, around $2 higher than the national average.
The West Coast is a “fuel island” because it’s not connected by pipelines to the rest of the country, United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said in an interview last month. That means oil and refined products have to be brought in by ships.
“Fuel price is more susceptible to supply weakness on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country,” Kirby said.
Some airlines might not survive the turmoil if oil prices don’t level out soon, he said. Spirit Airlines, a budget carrier based in Florida, is reportedly facing imminent liquidation if it isn’t bailed out by the Trump administration.
Business
Nike to Cut 1,400 Jobs as Part of Its Turnaround Plan
Nike is cutting about 1,400 jobs in its operations division, mostly from its technology department, the company said Thursday.
In a note to employees, Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the chief operating officer of Nike, said that management was nearly done reorganizing the business for its turnaround plan, and that the goal was to operate with “more speed, simplicity and precision.”
“This is not a new direction,” Mr. Alagirisamy told employees. “It is the next phase of the work already underway.”
Nike, the world’s largest sportswear company, is trying to recover after missteps led to a prolonged sales slump, in which the brand leaned into lifestyle products and away from performance shoes and apparel. Elliott Hill, the chief executive, has worked to realign the company around sports and speed up product development to create more breakthrough innovations.
In March, Nike told investors that it expected sales to fall this year, with growth in North America offset by poor performance in Asia, where the brand is struggling to rejuvenate sales in China. Executives said at the time that more volatility brought on by the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices might continue to affect its business.
The reorganization has involved cuts across many parts of the organization, including at its headquarters in Beaverton, Ore. Nike slashed some corporate staff last year and eliminated nearly 800 jobs at distribution centers in January.
“You never want to have to go through any sort of layoffs, but to re-center the company, we’re doing some of that,” Mr. Hill said in an interview earlier this year.
Mr. Alagirisamy told employees that Nike was reshaping its technology team and centering employees at its headquarters and a tech center in Bengaluru, India. The layoffs will affect workers across North America, Europe and Asia.
The cuts will also affect staffing in Nike’s factories for Air, the company’s proprietary cushioning system. Employees who work on the supply chain for raw materials will also experience changes as staff is integrated into footwear and apparel teams.
Nike’s Converse brand, which has struggled for years to revive sales, will move some of its engineering resources closer to the factories they support, the company said.
Mr. Alagirisamy said the moves were necessary to optimize Nike’s supply chain, deploy technology faster and bolster relationships with suppliers.
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