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As Driverless Cars Falter, Are ‘Driver Assistance’ Systems in Closer Reach?

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As Driverless Cars Falter, Are ‘Driver Assistance’ Systems in Closer Reach?

This text is a part of our collection on the Way forward for Transportation, which is exploring improvements and challenges that have an effect on how we transfer in regards to the world.

Think about heading eastbound on, say, I-95 whenever you and your pickup encounter crimson brake lights for miles forward. Now think about not touching the brakes or steering wheel and, as an alternative, sitting again and letting the automobile take care of it.

For the subsequent hour of stop-and-go slog, the truck’s system does the driving: anticipating slowdowns, accelerating, braking and steering by itself. When visitors eases up, the pickup climbs to a specific 70-mile-per-hour velocity and executes automated lane adjustments. The system checks blind spots and flashes flip alerts.

However this truck isn’t designed to be a wholly driverless one. The truck’s infrared driver-monitoring digicam watches for eye and head place. You possibly can look at a passenger or seek the advice of a navigation display — however in case you look away for quite a lot of seconds, LEDs illuminate blue on the steering wheel rim, a clear command to get your eyes again on the highway. Should you ignore prompts, the rim flashes crimson, and the system disengages and reverts to hands-on management.

As Tesla faces a federal investigation and lawsuits over deadly accidents involving its Autopilot system, shaking public confidence in robotic automobiles, may a pared-down method just like the one described — variously known as “partial autonomy” or “driver help” methods — be the extra reasonable way forward for hands-free driving?

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This sort of system, extra like a no-nonsense chaperone than one you’ll discover in a totally robotic automobile, is a mandatory part for high scores from the Insurance coverage Institute for Freeway Security’s forthcoming rankings of partial-autonomous tech; excessive rankings from the impartial nonprofit are prized. And although Normal Motors is taking the lead with their Tremendous Cruise system, they not alone; Ford, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are making related makes an attempt.

Tremendous Cruise combines minutely detailed, 3-D laser-scanned roadway maps with cameras, radar and onboard GPS. By the top of this 12 months, the corporate intends to broaden the system’s community to two-way undivided highways for the primary time and double its complete operational area to 400,000 miles. Doing so would permit hands-free driving on a few of North America’s most epic byways, such because the Pacific Coast Freeway, Route 66 and the Trans-Canada Freeway.

None of which means that automobile firms are abandoning the dream of absolutely autonomous automobiles. Along with Tesla, G.M.’s Cruise division, Alphabet’s Waymo and Argo AI proceed to develop and check robotaxis, with human security operators aboard, in cities together with Miami and Austin, Texas. Cruise has begun charging fares for robotaxi rides in modified Chevy Bolt EVs in San Francisco and is mapping Dubai with the hope of beginning a robotaxi program there subsequent 12 months.

However as absolutely driverless know-how has faltered, so has religion in such know-how. “The methods work nice, proper up till they don’t,” mentioned Bryant Walker Smith, an affiliate professor within the Faculties of Legislation and Engineering on the College of South Carolina, who has suggested the federal authorities on autonomous automobiles. “We don’t have a full sense of the successful combo to cowl many of the driving folks do.”

As well as, Cruise quickly halted and recalled its 80-car fleet for a software program repair following a two-car collision that injured two occupants in June. A G.M. public submitting famous that legislation enforcement had cited the human-driven automobile for being largely at fault, together with for rushing, and that the corporate’s robotaxis had, earlier than the collision, safely executed practically 125,000 left-hand turns by way of gaps in oncoming visitors.

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David Harkey, president of I.I.H.S., mentioned that the business’s actuality verify over the technical challenges, and attendant public disillusionment, is masking real progress. For one, the constructing blocks of partial autonomy automobiles are already in each showroom. Automated emergency braking is commonplace on each new automobile as of September, due to a voluntary settlement cast in 2016 amongst automakers, I.I.H.S. and the Nationwide Freeway Site visitors Security Administration.

Such radar- or camera-linked brakes have minimize police-reported rear-end collisions by a placing 50 %, Mr. Harkey of the I.I.H.S. mentioned, based on their analysis, including that automated pedestrian braking has decreased the variety of car-human collisions by 30 % versus automobiles with out the function. And anti-lock brakes; cameras, radar and ultrasonic sensors to handle blind spot and lane departure screens; and adaptive cruise management have turn into commonplace as properly.

“We noticed that as useful tech, and the identical will likely be true for some new tech. We’ll proceed to push to get extra options on extra fashions to avoid wasting extra lives and stop crashes,” Mr. Harkey mentioned.

The trick, he mentioned, is to construct on that promise, with methods that measurably increase security however preserve human drivers within the loop.

“These are driver help methods, not driver substitute methods. Some shoppers don’t know the distinction,” he mentioned.

For its half, the I.I.H.S. is testing what it calls “partial-autonomous” automobiles (a unique time period for “driver-assisted”). This fall, the nonprofit group plans to launch its first “Safeguard Scores” to assist information shoppers and spur the business to combine the best options.

A high “Good” ranking would require a driver monitoring system that checks each a driver’s gaze and hand place. A driver with a espresso in a single hand and an iPhone within the different received’t be ready to retake the wheel. Different standards embody escalating visible, audible or haptic alerts to get a driver’s consideration, and a fail-safe process to soundly gradual or halt the automobile if the system is misused or to help an incapacitated driver. (Tremendous Cruise and a few related methods combine a lot of these options.) The I.I.H.S. prefers that methods have drivers provoke any automated lane adjustments to maintain them engaged within the course of.

One early examine, although, factors to potential boundaries for driver-assisted tech to realize that “Good” ranking. The latest scarcity of chips has made it more durable for the I.I.H.S. to assemble and check comparatively newfangled automobiles and has compelled G.M. to quickly halt set up of Tremendous Cruise. Nonetheless, in a 2020 collaborative survey with M.I.T., the I.I.H.S. discovered that Volvo S90’s system (which lacks driver monitoring) led topics to drive sooner, look away extra typically and use extra hand-held gadgets, indicators of potential driver inattention.

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In Germany, Mercedes has begun pushing boundaries with its new Drive Pilot, which legally permits a driver to carry out nondriving duties — checking e mail, even watching a film — however screens the driving force and alerts when to retake the wheel. I.I.H.S. divides these types of methods into ranges of automation, from zero (no automation) to 5 (full automation). Consultants see Degree 3 (some automation, however with a driver on the prepared) because the diciest of the degrees, a limbo zone in contrast with Degree 5 automobiles which might be actually robotic. For now, Drive Pilot can function solely on sure highways at speeds as much as 37 miles per hour. Mercedes is looking for certification to supply the system in the US subsequent 12 months.

Taking a unique method in advertising and marketing, G.M. and different firms have begun downplaying security beneficial properties and citing decreased driver workloads, particularly in wearying commutes and visitors.

“Homeowners really feel extra refreshed, they really feel extra relaxed, but they’re nonetheless attentive,” Mario Maiorana, the chief engineer at Tremendous Cruise, mentioned.

G.M. engineers say that secure and accountable deployment has guided each determination, together with a delayed Tremendous Cruise rollout in 2017, whilst the corporate confronted mounting criticism for not holding tempo with Tesla’s Autopilot.

The following check is G.M.’s Extremely Cruise, which the corporate intends to debut on the Cadillac Celestiq, a six-figure electrical flagship sedan, late subsequent 12 months. The system is designed to in the end ship hands-free driving on 3.2 million miles of roadway — practically each inch of paved highway in the US and Canada.

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Jason Ditman, Extremely Cruise’s chief engineer, mentioned the methods should work with full transparency and consistency to instill confidence amongst house owners and the general public.

“Should you suppose it’s arduous to get somebody to let go of the steering wheel on highways,” Mr. Ditman mentioned, think about a snowy nation lane or crowded metropolis avenue.

G.M. says Extremely Cruise will cease and begin at visitors lights and cease indicators, autonomously comply with navigation routes, do close-object avoidance of automobiles and pedestrians, even self-park in driveways. The machine studying system will determine dicey situations and add information to constantly enhance efficiency, and G.M. can remotely shut down use of the system on any highway the place the corporate isn’t assured of efficiency. G.M. claims the system will ultimately deal with about 95 % of driving, other than complicated situations comparable to multilane roundabouts.

Regardless of high-profile crashes, Prof. Smith believes extreme concentrate on drawbacks of driver-assistance methods distorts the true disaster: Almost 43,000 Individuals died final 12 months in motor-vehicle crashes, which kill roughly 1.3 million folks worldwide yearly.

At the very least 100 folks will die on U.S. roads as we speak, and we’re not going to listen to about them,” he mentioned. “Likelihood is that not one will likely be killed in reference to a driver-assistance system.”

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State Farm seeks major rate hikes for California homeowners and renters

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State Farm seeks major rate hikes for California homeowners and renters

State Farm General is seeking to dramatically increase residential insurance rates for millions of Californians, a move that would deepen the state’s ongoing crisis over housing coverage.

In two filings with the state’s Department of Insurance on Thursday signaling financial trouble for the insurance giant, State Farm disclosed it is seeking a 30% rate increase for homeowners; a 36% increase for condo owners; and a 52% increase for renters.

“State Farm General’s latest rate filings raise serious questions about its financial condition,” Ricardo Lara, California’s insurance commissioner, said in a statement. “This has the potential to affect millions of California consumers and the integrity of our residential property insurance market.”

State Farm did not return requests for comment.

Lara noted that nothing immediately changes for policyholders as a result of the filings. His said his department would use all of its “investigatory tools to get to the bottom of State Farm’s financial situation,” including a rate hearing if necessary, before making a decision on whether to approve the requests.

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That process could take months: The department is averaging 180 days for its reviews, and complex cases can take even longer, according to a department spokesperson.

The department has already approved recent State Farm requests for significant home insurance rate increases, including a 6.9% bump in January 2023 and a 20% hike that went into effect in March.

State Farm’s bid to sharply increase home insurance rates seeks to utilize a little-known and rarely used exception to the state’s usual insurance rate-making formula. Typically, such a move signals that an insurance provider is facing serious financial issues.

In one of the filings, State Farm General said the purpose of its request was to restore its financial condition. “If the variance is denied,” the insurer wrote, “further deterioration of surplus is anticipated.”

California is facing an insurance crisis as climate change and extreme weather contribute to catastrophic fires that have destroyed thousands of homes in recent years.

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In March, State Farm announced that it wouldn’t renew 72,000 property owner policies statewide, joining Farmers, Allstate and other companies in either not writing or limiting new policies, or tightening underwriting standards.

The companies blamed wildfires, inflation that raised reconstruction costs, higher prices for reinsurance they buy to boost their balance sheets and protect themselves from catastrophes, as well as outdated state regulations — claims disputed by some consumer advocates.

As insurers have pulled back from the homeowners market, lawmakers in Sacramento are scrambling to make coverage available and affordable for residents living in high-risk areas.

Times staff writer Laurence Darmiento contributed to this report.

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High interest rates are hurting people. Here's why it's worse for Californians

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High interest rates are hurting people. Here's why it's worse for Californians

By the numbers, the overall U.S. economy may look good, but down at the street level the view is a lot grimmer and grittier.

The surge in interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve to slow inflation has closed like an acrid cloud over would-be homeowners, car buyers, growing families, and businesses new and old, large and small. It has meant missing opportunities, settling for less — and waiting and waiting and waiting.

It’s not that the average American is underwater. It’s that many feel that they’re struggling more than they anticipated and feel more constricted. In the American Dream, if you work hard, things are supposed to get better. Fairly or not, that may be a big part of why so many voters have expressed unhappiness with President Biden’s handling of the economy.

The cost of borrowing, whether for mortgages, credit cards or car loans, is the highest in more than two decades. And that is weighing especially hard on people in California, where housing, gas and many other things are more expensive than in most other states.

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California’s economy also relies more on interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and high tech, which helps explain why the state has been lagging in job growth and its unemployment rate is the highest in the nation.

Harder to budget

When interest rates rise, savers can earn more on their deposits. But in America’s consumer society, for most people higher rates mean that a lot of things cost a little (or a lot) more. That makes it harder to stretch an individual or family budget. It may mean giving up on the nicer car you had your heart set on, or settling for a smaller house, or a shorter, less glamorous vacation.

And with every uptick in interest rates, which is almost inevitably passed on to customers, some have had to give up on a purchase entirely.

Geovanny Panchame, a creative director at an advertising agency, knows these feelings all too well: He thinks often about what could have been if he and his wife had bought the starter home they were planning for in 2020.

Back then, they had been pre-approved at an interest rate of 3.1% — right around the national average — but were outbid several times. They figured they’d wait a few years to save more money for a nicer place.

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Four years later, the couple are still renting an apartment in Culver City — and now they’re expecting their first child.

Pushing to buy a house and get settled before their son is born in December, they recently made an $885,000 offer for a three-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Inglewood. They plan to put down 10%. At the current average mortgage interest rate of 7%, that would mean a monthly payment of about $5,300 — $1,900 more than if they had an interest rate of 3.1%.

The source of that increase is the Federal Reserve’s power to set basic interest rates, which determines the interest rates for almost everything else in the economy. The Fed’s benchmark rate went up rapidly, from near zero in early 2022 to a generational high of about 5.5%, where it has been for almost a year. The rate has been higher in the past, but after two decades in which it was mostly at rock bottom, most people had gotten used to both very low inflation and low interest rates.

“Clearly, we look back and we probably should have kept going and hopped into something,” Panchame, 39, said. “I’ve been really sacrificing a lot to get to this point to purchase a home and now I just feel like I got here but I didn’t work quick enough because interest rates have gotten the better of me.”

Add property taxes and home insurance, and it’s even more painful for home buyers because those costs have also risen sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic, along with housing prices themselves.

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A typical buyer of a mid-tier home in California, priced at about $785,000 in the spring, was looking at a total housing payment of about $5,900 a month. That’s up from $3,250 in March of 2020 and almost $4,600 in March of 2022, when the Fed began raising interest rates, according to the California Legislative Analyst’s Office.

It wasn’t supposed to work like that: Lifting interest rates as fast and as high as the Fed did, in its effort to curb inflation, should have led to falling home prices.

But that didn’t happen, mainly because relatively few homes came on the market. Most existing homeowners had locked in lower mortgage rates before the surge; selling those houses once interest rates took off would have meant paying higher prices and interest rates on other homes, or bloated rents for apartments.

For most homeowners sitting on the low rates of the past, their financial well-being was further supported by low unemployment and incomes that generally remained on par with inflation or grew a little faster. And many had cushions of savings built up in early phases of the pandemic, thanks partly to government support.

All of which has kept the U.S. economy as a whole humming along, blunting the full effects of higher interest rates.

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“Consumers are doing their job,” said Claire Li, senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, though she added that there are now signs of slower spending, evidenced by consumers cutting back on credit card purchases.

Unlike most home loans, credit card interest rates aren’t fixed. And today the average rate has bounced up to almost 22% from 14.6% in 2021, according to Fed data. That’s starting to squeeze more borrowers, adding to their unease.

Rising credit card debt

In California, the 30-day delinquency rate on credit cards is nearing 5% — something not seen since late 2009 around the end of the Great Recession, according to the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley.

Lower-income and younger borrowers are more prone to falling behind on credit card, auto and other consumer loan payments than those with higher incomes. And it’s these groups that are feeling the effects of higher interest rates the most.

Christian Shorter, a self-employed tech serviceman who lives in Chino, just bought a used Volkswagen Jetta for $21,000. He put down $3,500 and financed the rest over 69 months at an annual interest rate of 24%. His monthly payment is more than $480, and by the end of the loan he will have paid about $15,000 in interest.

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Shorter, 45, said he doesn’t have good credit. He plans to take out a personal loan when interest rates drop and pay off the car debt. “Definitely, definitely, they should lower interest rates,” he said of the Fed.

Between the jump in interest rates and prices of new vehicles, some auto buyers have downgraded to cheaper models. The biggest shift, though, especially in California, has been a move by more buyers to turn to electric vehicles to save on fuel costs, says Joseph Yoon, a consumer analyst at Edmunds, the car research and information firm in Santa Monica.

In May, he said, buyers on average financed about $41,000 on a new vehicle purchase at an interest rate of 7.3% (compared with 4.1% in December 2021). Over 69 months, that translates to a monthly payment of $745.

“For a big part of the population, they’re looking at this car market and saying, ‘I got to wait for something to break,’ like interest rates or dealer incentives,” Yoon said.

For a lot of small-business owners, who drive much of the economy in Los Angeles, they don’t have the luxury of waiting it out. They need funds to survive, or to expand when things are going well.

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But many can’t qualify with traditional commercial lenders, and when they can they’re typically looking at interest rates of 9%; that’s more than double what they were before the Fed’s rate hikes, according to surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business.

One result: More and more people in Southern California are looking for help from lenders such as Brea-based Lendistry, one of the nation’s largest minority-led community development financial institutions.

From January to May, applications were up 21% and the dollar volume of loans rose 33% compared with a year earlier, said Everett Sands, Lendistry’s chief executive. Interest rates on his loans range from 7.5% to 14.5%.

“Business owners, they’re resilient, entrepreneurial, scrappy — they’ll figure out a way,” he said, adding that he sees many doing side jobs like driving for Uber or making Instacart deliveries at night.

Even so, Sands said, the higher borrowing costs inevitably mean less money spent on things like investing in new technology and software and bringing on additional staff, as well as delays in owners growing their businesses.

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“Some of them lose out in progressing forward.”

‘When you put everything on the line, you get desperate.’

— Jurni Rayne, Gritz N Wafflez

Jurni Rayne, 42, started her brunch business, Gritz N Wafflez, as a ghost kitchen in February 2022, preparing food orders for delivery services. She financed that by maxing out her credit cards and getting a merchant cash advance, which is like a payday loan with super high interest rates. Her debts reached $70,000.

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“When you put everything on the line, you get desperate,” said Rayne, a Dallas native who moved to Los Angeles a decade ago and has worked as a manager at California Pizza Kitchen and the Cheesecake Factory. “You don’t care about the interest rate, because it’s something like between passion and insanity.”

She has since paid off all the merchant loans. And her business has seen such strong growth that last year Rayne got out of the ghost kitchen and into a small spot in Pico-Union, starting with just three tables. She now has 17 tables and a staff of 14.

This fall she’ll be moving to a bigger location in Koreatown and has her sights on a second restaurant in South Los Angeles. But she frets that she could have expanded sooner if interest rates had been lower and she’d had more access to financing.

Economists call that an opportunity cost. For Rayne, it’s personal.

“Absolutely, lower interest rates would have helped me,” she said.

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For many others, the wait for lower rates continues without the balm of intermediate success.

Lynn Miller, 60, began looking to buy a home in Orange County about a year ago, hoping to upgrade from her current 1,600-square-foot apartment.

“It’s not bad, it’s just not mine — the dishwasher is crappy, the washing machine is old,” she said of her rental in Corona del Mar. “I’m obviously not going to invest in these appliances. It’s just different not owning your own home.”

It’s been a discouraging process, she said, especially when she inputs her numbers into the mortgage calculators on Zillow and Realtor.com, which churn out estimates based on current interest rates.

“If you look at those monthly payment numbers, it’s shocking,” Miller, a marketing consultant, said. “It’ll get better, but it’s just not better right now.”

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She’s continuing her house search — she’d love to buy a single-family, three-bedroom home with a backyard for a dog — but is holding off for now.

“I’m still waiting because I do think that interest rates are going to go down,” Miller said, although she knows it’s a guessing game. “I could end up waiting a long time.”

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California lawmakers advance tax on Big Tech to help fund news industry

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California lawmakers advance tax on Big Tech to help fund news industry

The California state Senate on Thursday passed legislation aimed at helping the news industry by imposing a new tax on some of the biggest tech companies in the world.

Senate Bill 1327 would tax Amazon, Meta and Google for the data they collect from users and pump the money from this “data extraction mitigation fee” into news organizations by giving them a tax credit for employing full-time journalists.

“Just as we have funded a movie industry tax credit, with no state involvement in content, the same goes for this journalism tax credit,” Sen. Steve Glazer (D-Orinda) said as he presented the bill on the Senate floor, casting it as a measure to protect democracy and a free press.

Its passage comes the same week lawmakers advanced another bill that seeks to resuscitate the local news business, which has suffered from declining revenue as technology changes the way people consume news. Assembly Bill 886 would require digital platforms to pay news outlets a fee when they sell advertising alongside news content.

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Glazer said his bill is meant as a complement to the other measure, adding that he and its author, Assemblymember Buffy Wicks (D-Oakland), plan to work with the companies that could be affected by both bills “in balancing everyone’s interest.”

The legislation passed 27 to 7, with one Republican — Sen. Scott Wilk (R-Santa Clarita) — joining Democrats in support. As a tax increase, it required support from two-thirds of the Senate and now advances to the Assembly.

A Republican who opposed the bill said technology is changing many industries, not just journalism, and that some of the innovations have led to inspiring new ways to consume news, such as through podcasts or nonprofit news outlets.

“These are all new models, and very few people under the age of 50 … even pick up a paper newspaper,” said Sen. Roger Niello (R-Fair Oaks.) “So this is an evolution of the marketplace.”

Opponents of the bill include tech company trade associations Technet, Internet Coalition and Chamber of Progress; the California Chamber of Commerce; and numerous local chambers of commerce.

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Supporters include unions representing journalists, a coalition of online and nonprofit news outlets, and the publishers of several small newspapers.

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