Business

Arizona's economy is booming. But Biden struggles to reap benefits from voters

Published

8 months ago

May 12, 2024

Arizona's economy is booming. But Biden struggles to reap benefits from voters

PHOENIX —

Aaron McDonald thinks back to when he came to Maricopa County nearly 20 years ago as a young ironworker hoping to get work building a new football stadium.

Driving in from Wyoming for the first time, he was struck by the overwhelming desert expanse that surrounded Phoenix.

Today, those sweeping vistas are dotted with industrial development that is transforming Arizona’s economy. A region that was devastated by the 2008 financial crisis is teeming with massive projects under construction, fueled in part by President Biden’s signature legislative accomplishments aimed at rebooting American semiconductor production.

“There was a shooting range there. It was the Wild West and now there’s a giant chip factory out there,” said McDonald, who now trains union ironworkers, referring to an enormous complex of plants being built in northern Phoenix by TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. “The growth, to me, just really doesn’t seem like it’s gonna slow down at anytime. We know we have Biden to thank for this work.”

The question for Biden’s reelection team is whether enough voters in this battleground state will feel the same way in November.

His administration has awarded billions of dollars to companies such as Intel and TSMC and hopes that the enormous investments in green technology and semiconductors can make a difference in a state where Biden bested President Trump by a mere 10,000 votes in 2020.

But recent polling points to the challenges in winning over those voters.

The Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the CHIPS and Science Act will ultimately send about $24 billion to Arizona, according to data compiled by the White House.

But a majority of Americans recently surveyed nationally said they didn’t know enough to say whether the Inflation Reduction Act helped or hurt them in the two years since its passage, according to recent polling from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. And a majority of registered voters in Arizona thought Trump was “more trusted” than Biden to address the economy and immigration, a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found.

Intel has greatly expanded its operations at plants across the country including the Ocotillo campus, in part because of the CHIPS and Science Act.

(Ash Ponders / For The Times)

TSMC has committed to spending $65 billion in the state building facilities in the next decade, on top of the roughly $11 billion in loans and grants it recently received from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The company has said its new facilities, when completed, will create 6,000 permanent and roughly 20,000 temporary jobs.

“When you drive to the north, or you drive to the south, you see what my wife calls the cranes of prosperity. And they are very prominent,” said Zachary Holman, an engineering professor at Arizona State University.

Intel is similarly expanding its footprint in Arizona, where it had been pulling back its presence as recently as a decade ago. It received about $10 billion from the Commerce Department, adding to the nearly $20 billion it plans to spend to expand its presence.

But with many of the new jobs arriving years in the future, more immediate concerns such as soaring rents, rising consumer prices and the crisis at the Arizona-Mexico border are capturing most of the attention.

Trump and his allies hope things stay that way, even as they wrestle with voter anger over the state Supreme Court decision banning virtually all abortions. The Legislature voted to undo the law with some Republican support.

“Arizona voters are ready to turn out for President Donald J. Trump this November,” said Rachel Lee, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “Joe Biden is losing in the state, and he knows it. Despite Biden’s best attempts to gaslight voters, they know exactly who is to blame for soaring costs, a spiraling border crisis, and staggering crime rates across the country.”

Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke at Intel's Ocotillo Campus in Chandler, Arizona on March 20, 2024.

Kevin Hartke, the Republican mayor of nearby Chandler, said the investment in his city has been a godsend, while noting that it has been a bipartisan boost across multiple administrations — making it hard for Biden to own this growth exclusively.

“Your common person here is going to complain more about the cost of gasoline, the effect of inflation and certainly the housing crisis,” Hartke said. “I think those areas where there is more of ‘this hits me’ concerns as people struggle to keep up with those kind of growing prices.”

In addition to expanding semiconductor production, the money has gone toward renovating Phoenix’s airport, expanding the 10 Freeway through the region and planting more trees in the city.

“The last four years have been transformational for Phoenix,” said Mayor Kate Gallego, a Democrat. “We are going to have a more diverse high-wage economy for a generation because of Biden. My job is to help people appreciate the change we’re going through and how it means that they will have more opportunities to stay here.”

This showering of money didn’t seem to register for Gabi Zander, 34, who was at a recent farmers market with her mother in Phoenix’s Uptown neighborhood. Zander, who has lived in the area for more than a decade and works in marketing, said she is focused on the rising cost of living and the war in Gaza.

The recent ruling banning virtually all abortions in the state, since overturned, angered her. But the larger state of politics has her down and she’s unsure she’ll even vote.

“I just wish politicians would spend more time thinking about how to make the city more livable and get more funding for teachers,” Zander said. “I wish they would leave us alone.”

An Emerson College poll showed Biden trailing Trump in Arizona 44% to 40%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%. A more recent poll from Data Orbital, a Phoenix analytics and survey firm, found Biden and Trump at 38% with Kennedy at 14%.

Steve Sherman, production engineering manager for Saras Micro Devices in their new headquarters in Chandler, Az.

The Biden campaign has identified some combination of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia as essential to the president’s reelection.

In 2020, Biden became the first Democrat to win in Arizona since President Clinton in 1996. The last Democrat to prevail here before that was President Truman in 1948.

The state has been a player in semiconductors for decades, with Intel’s presence dating back nearly 40 years.

Companies say they are able to produce these chips far more cheaply in places like Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, but the COVID-19 pandemic and emerging tensions with China have led government and private-sector officials to revive domestic production. This was the impetus for the $52-billion CHIPS and Science Act, which Biden signed in the summer of 2022. (CHIPS stands for Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors.)

Much of the money — $39 billion — will come in the form of grants and tax breaks to Intel and other companies. The other $13 billion will go to research and training.

Arizona was a natural destination thanks to its open spaces and affordable land, favorable business climate and the fact that many of these companies already had a presence in the region. Intel and TSMC had already committed billions to construct new manufacturing facilities before they received government grants and tax breaks in the last year.

“Some of these companies were starting to move” to the region, said Eelco Bergman, the chief business officer of Saras Micro Devices. “I think where things like the CHIPS Act helped is they took that spark and threw some kindling on the flame.”

Saras Micro Devices is moving its headquarters and production facilities like this clean room from Georgia to Arizona.

Bergman and his partners have relocated their manufacturing facility to be close to Intel’s facility in Chandler. Saras is spending close to $200 million on upgrading a building and purchasing the equipment to produce components that can be sold to semiconductor manufacturers, Bergman said.

The business ecosystem is thriving, he added, because of heavy investment and being in close proximity to schools like Arizona State University, which graduates 7,000 engineering students a year. Intel hires more people from ASU than any other school in the country, and there’s a shortage of people skilled in the disciplines necessary to work in these industries, according to the company.

However the politics ultimately play out, the region has seen a monumental shift from an economy based in real estate and tourism into one heavily layered with future-facing manufacturing. Some of the investment predated Biden, but it was supercharged during his term.

“No one is getting total credit for the big picture of the success story … because it’s happened over such a long period of time,” said Rep. Greg Stanton, a Democrat and former Phoenix mayor. “The more interesting political question is, in the short run who gets credit for the United States finally having an industrial policy that’s been missing for such a long period of time where we finally respond to the challenge that is China?

“I think President Biden is going to get appropriate credit for that. Arizona has and will better benefit from the CHIPS and Science Act than any other state,” Stanton said.

Ironworkers like those McDonald is training are bouncing from job site to job site, watching outsize warehouses and manufacturing sites rise from the desert. The work is dangerous and can be chaotic, but it’s creating a future for people like Shawna Irwin, 25, who is originally from the Navajo reservation in northeastern Arizona.

Her late uncle — an ironworker — inspired her to enter the field. She later enrolled in a training program sponsored by the Ironworkers Local 75 and run by McDonald. The roughly four-year program — sometimes called the University of Iron — has ballooned to nearly 250 ironworkers who get supplemental training as they continue to work on job sites. McDonald would like to be training 500 ironworkers at the facility he manages by 2026.

“It opened a lot of doors for the unions,” Irwin said, “and for us there was a lot more work because of [Biden] funding the chip plants.”

Business

As Delta Reports Profits, Airlines Are Optimistic About 2025

Published

5 hours ago

January 11, 2025

Press Room

As Delta Reports Profits, Airlines Are Optimistic About 2025

This year just got started, but it is already shaping up nicely for U.S. airlines.

After several setbacks, the industry ended 2024 in a fairly strong position because of healthy demand for tickets and the ability of several airlines to control costs and raise fares, experts said. Barring any big problems, airlines — especially the largest ones — should enjoy a great year, analysts said.

“I think it’s going to be pretty blue skies,” said Tom Fitzgerald, an airline industry analyst for the investment bank TD Cowen.

In recent weeks, many major airlines upgraded forecasts for the all-important last three months of the year. And on Friday, Delta Air Lines said it collected more than $15.5 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record.

“As we move into 2025, we expect strong demand for travel to continue,” Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said in a statement. That put the airline on track to “deliver the best financial year in Delta’s 100-year history,” he said.

The airline also beat analysts’ profit estimates and said it expected earnings per share, a measure of profitability, to rise more than 10 percent this year.

Delta’s upbeat report offers a preview of what are expected to be similarly rosy updates from other carriers that will report earnings in the next few weeks. That should come as welcome news to an industry that has been stifled by various challenges even as demand for travel has rocketed back after the pandemic.

“For the last five years, it’s felt like every bird in the sky was a black swan,” said Ravi Shanker, an analyst focused on airlines at Morgan Stanley. “But it appears that this industry does have its ducks in a row.”

That is, of course, if everything goes according to plan, which it rarely does. Geopolitics, terrorist attacks, air safety problems and, perhaps most important, an economic downturn could tank demand for travel. Rising costs, particularly for jet fuel, could erode profits. Or the industry could face problems like a supply chain disruption that limits availability of new planes or makes it harder to repair older ones.

Early last year, a panel blew off a Boeing 737 Max during an Alaska Airlines flight, resurfacing concerns about the safety of the manufacturer’s planes, which are used on most flights operated by U.S. airlines, according to Cirium, an aviation data firm.

The incident forced Boeing to slow production and delay deliveries of jets. That disrupted the plans of some airlines that had hoped to carry more passengers. And there was little airlines could do to adjust because the world’s largest jet manufacturer, Airbus, didn’t have the capacity to pick up the slack — both it and Boeing have long order backlogs. In addition, some Airbus planes were afflicted by an engine problem that has forced carriers to pull the jets out of service for inspections.

There was other tumult, too. Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy. A brief technology outage wreaked havoc on many airlines, disrupting travel and resulting in thousands of canceled flights in the heart of the busy summer season. And during the summer, smaller airlines flooded popular domestic routes with seats, squeezing profits during what is normally the most lucrative time of year.

But the industry’s financial position started improving when airlines reduced the number of flights and seats. While that was bad for travelers, it lifted fares and profits for airlines.

“You’re in a demand-over-supply imbalance, which gives the industry pricing power,” said Andrew Didora, an analyst at the Bank of America.

At the same time, airlines have been trying to improve their businesses. American Airlines overhauled a sales strategy that had frustrated corporate customers, helping it win back some travelers. Southwest Airlines made changes aimed at lowering costs and increasing profits after a push by the hedge fund Elliott Management. And JetBlue Airways unveiled a strategy with similar aims, after a less contentious battle with the investor Carl C. Icahn.

Those improvements and industry trends, along with the stabilization of fuel, labor and other costs, have created the conditions for what could be a banner 2025. “All of this is the best setup we’ve had in decades,” Mr. Shanker said.

That won’t materialize right away, though. Travel demand tends to be subdued in the winter. But business trips pick up somewhat, driven by events like this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

The positive outlook for 2025 is probably strongest for the largest U.S. airlines — Delta, United and American. All three are well positioned to take advantage of buoyant trends, including steadily rebounding business travel and customers who are eager to spend more on better seats and international flights.

But some smaller airlines may do well, too. JetBlue, Alaska Airlines and others have been adding more premium seats, which should help lift profits.

While he is optimistic overall, Mr. Shanker acknowledged that the industry was vulnerable to a host of potential problems.

“I mean, this time last year you were talking about doors falling off planes,” he said. “So who knows what might happen.”

Business

Insurance commissioner issues moratorium on home policy cancellations in fire zones

Published

6 hours ago

January 11, 2025

Press Room

Insurance commissioner issues moratorium on home policy cancellations in fire zones

California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has issued a moratorium that bars insurers from canceling or non-renewing home policies in the Pacific Palisades and the San Gabriel Valley’s Eaton fire zones.

The moratorium, issued Thursday, protects homeowners living within the perimeter of the fire and in adjoining ZIP codes from losing their policies for one year, starting from when Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Wednesday.

The moratoriums, provided for under state law, are typically issued after large fires and apply to all policyholders regardless of whether they have suffered a loss.

Lara also urged insurers to pause for six months any pending non-renewals or cancellations that were issued up to 90 days before Jan. 7 that were to take effect after the start of the fires — something he does not have authority to prohibit.

“I call upon all property insurance companies to halt these non-renewals and cancellations and provide essential stability for our communities, allowing consumers to focus on what’s important at the moment — their safety and recovery,” said Lara on Friday during a press conference in downtown Los Angeles.

Insurance companies in California have wide latitude to not renew home policies after they expire, though they must provide at least 75 days’ notice. However, policies in force can be canceled only for reasons such as non-payment and fraud.

Insurers have dropped hundreds of thousands of policyholders across California in recent years citing the increasing risk and severity of wind-driven wildfires attributed to climate change. The insurance department said residents living in fire zones can be subject to sudden non-renewals, prompting the need for the moratoriums.

In addition, Lara asked insurers to extend to policyholders affected by the fires time to pay their premiums that go beyond the existing 60-day grace period that is mandatory under state law.

It’s not clear how many homeowners in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere might not have had coverage, but many homeowners reported that insurers had not renewed their policies before the disaster struck. State Farm last year told the Department of Insurance it would not renew 1,626 policies in Pacific Palisades when they expired, starting last July.

Residents can visit the Department of Insurance website at insurance.ca.gov to see if their ZIP codes are included in the moratorium. They can also contact the department at (800) 927-4357 or via chat or email if they think their insurer is in violation of the law.

The Pacific Palisades fire, the most destructive fire in Los Angeles history, as of Friday morning had grown to more than 20,000 acres, burning more than 5,000 homes, businesses and other buildings. It was 6% contained.

The Eaton fire, which has burned many structures in Altadena and Pasadena, has spread to nearly 14,000 acres and was 3% contained as of early Friday. Ten people have died in the fires.

Business

In Los Angeles, Hotels Become a Refuge for Fire Evacuees

Published

17 hours ago

January 10, 2025

Press Room

In Los Angeles, Hotels Become a Refuge for Fire Evacuees

The lobby of Shutters on the Beach, the luxury oceanfront hotel in Santa Monica that is usually abuzz with tourists and entertainment professionals, had by Thursday transformed into a refuge for Los Angeles residents displaced by the raging wildfires that have ripped through thousands of acres and leveled entire neighborhoods to ash.

In the middle of one table sat something that has probably never been in the lobby of Shutters before: a portable plastic goldfish tank. “It’s my daughter’s,” said Kevin Fossee, 48. Mr. Fossee and his wife, Olivia Barth, 45, had evacuated to the hotel on Tuesday evening shortly after the fire in the Los Angeles Pacific Palisades area flared up near their home in Malibu.

Suddenly, an evacuation alert came in. Every phone in the lobby wailed at once, scaring young children who began to cry inconsolably. People put away their phones a second later when they realized it was a false alarm.

Similar scenes have been unfolding across other Los Angeles hotels as the fires spread and the number of people under evacuation orders soars above 100,000. IHG, which includes the Intercontinental, Regent and Holiday Inn chains, said 19 of its hotels across the Los Angeles and Pasadena areas were accommodating evacuees.

The Palisades fire, which has been raging since Tuesday and has become the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles, struck neighborhoods filled with mansions owned by the wealthy, as well as the homes of middle-class families who have owned them for generations. Now they all need places to stay.

Many evacuees turned to a Palisades WhatsApp group that in just a few days has grown from a few hundred to over 1,000 members. Photos, news, tips on where to evacuate, hotel discount codes and pet policies were being posted with increasing rapidity as the fires spread.

At the midcentury modern Beverly Hilton hotel, which looms over the lawns and gardens of Beverly Hills, seven miles and a world away from the ash-strewed Pacific Palisades, parking ran out on Wednesday as evacuees piled in. Guests had to park in another lot a mile south and take a shuttle back.

In the lobby of the hotel, which regularly hosts glamorous events like the recent Golden Globe Awards, guests in workout clothes wrestled with children, pets and hastily packed roll-aboards.

Many of the guests were already familiar with each other from their neighborhoods, and there was a resigned intimacy as they traded stories. “You can tell right away if someone is a fire evacuee by whether they are wearing sweats or have a dog with them,” said Sasha Young, 34, a photographer. “Everyone I’ve spoken with says the same thing: We didn’t take enough.”

The Hotel June, a boutique hotel with a 1950s hipster vibe a mile north of Los Angeles International Airport, was offering evacuees rooms for $125 per night.

“We were heading home to the Palisades from the airport when we found out about the evacuations,” said Julia Morandi, 73, a retired science educator who lives in the Palisades Highlands neighborhood. “When we checked in, they could see we were stressed, so the manager gave us drinks tickets and told us, ‘We take care of our neighbors.’”

Hotels are also assisting tourists caught up in the chaos, helping them make arrangements to fly home (as of Friday, the airport was operating normally) and waiving cancellation fees. A spokeswoman for Shutters said its guests included domestic and international tourists, but on Thursday, few could be spotted among the displaced Angelenos. The heated outdoor pool that overlooks the ocean and is usually surrounded by sunbathers was completely deserted because of the dangerous air quality.

“I think I’m one of the only tourists here,” said Pavel Francouz, 34, a hockey scout who came to Los Angeles from the Czech Republic for a meeting on Tuesday before the fires ignited.

“It’s weird to be a tourist,” he said, describing the eerily empty beaches and the hotel lobby packed with crying children, families, dogs and suitcases. “I can’t imagine what it would feel like to be these people,” he said, adding, “I’m ready to go home.”

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