Business
Commentary: Why isn’t the stock market freaking out more over the Iran war? Here’s why
Since the end of February, the three major stock market indices — the Standard & Poor’s 500, the Dow Jones industrials and the Nasdaq composite — have fallen by a few percentage points.
One might ask: That’s all? Doesn’t the market know there’s a war on?
Yes, the stock market knows. It just doesn’t care as much as you might think it should.
It feels like this drawdown should be worse than this given everything going on in the world.
— Ben Carlson
History tells us that we shouldn’t be all that surprised. Although geopolitical events like the launch of military actions tend to rattle the securities markets in the short term, investors eventually shift to the long view, assuming that these conflicts will eventually be resolved and the door reopened to bullish sentiment.
The major downturns of the past, such as the crashes of 1929, 2000 and 2008, have been caused less by external events than by business and investment internals, such as threats to economic structure — over-leveraging in the first, the dot-com crash in the second and the housing crash in the third. Those were genuine crashes, not short-term downturns.
The Iran war hasn’t yet taken on the coloration of an economic threat, although that bulks large on the horizon if the disruption of oil supplies created by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz continues or tightens or the Middle East energy infrastructure sustains more damage.
Indeed, two of the most severe downturns of recent times are associated with oil — the Arab oil embargo of 1973, following the Yom Kippur War, which brought the S&P 500 down by more than 16% over a period of about six weeks, and Iraq’s seizure of Kuwaiti oilfields in 1990, which caused a 16% drop in the S&P over about two months.
Let’s take a look at the condition of the stock market since the U.S. attacks on Iran began on Feb. 28, and then place it in the context of market behavior after other major events, dating back to the start of World War II.
From Feb. 28 through Thursday’s trading close, the S&P lost 4.31%, the Dow, 5.05% and the Nasdaq, 3.57%. Those declines feel ugly, in part because they’ve occurred over a short time frame of about five weeks. But in the grand scheme of things, they’re modest.
“It feels like this drawdown should be worse than this given everything going on in the world,” Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management posted last week. But Carlson observed that 5% pullbacks are common, in good times and bad — only three years since 1990 have gone without one.
There were two each in 2023, 2024 and 2025, which all ultimately delivered double-digit S&P returns. None, obviously, came close to the 10% pullback known as a correction, which by Carlson’s reckoning occurs on average every 1.8 years.
The latest pullbacks have come with the stock market percolating along at historically generous valuations. This year, the S&P’s price-earnings multiple has hovered around 30x, well above its historical average of less than 20x. That alone should have had investors bracing for a reversal or even a correction.
When similar events occur during bull markets, external events are often a trigger rather than a cause. Investors look for reasons to take profits, even though the rationales may have nothing to do with the market action.
To place things in a longer perspective, let’s review how the stock market has reacted to great global events of the past. (Thanks to Ryan Detrick of the financial advisory firm Carson Group for compiling these statistics.)
The Pearl Harbor attack of Dec. 7, 1941, brought the S&P down by 11% over the following three months — but one year later the market was up by 4.3%. One month after Richard Nixon’s resignation on Aug. 9, 1974, the market was down by 14.4%; one year later it was up by 6.4%. The market entirely shrugged off the Cuban missile crisis, the Kennedy assassination, the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its 2022 invasion of Ukraine; none was associated with a market decline over the following month.
Even when events did precede a market decline, stocks often recovered within weeks or months. North Korea’s invasion of the South in 1950, launching the Korean War, took the market down 12.9% over the next two weeks, but as Kelly Bogdanova of RBC Wealth Management documents, it made up the loss over the next 56 trading days. Similarly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is blamed for a 7.4% decline over the following two weeks, but the market broke even 27 trading days later.
Bogdanova notes that after the 1990 Kuwait invasion, which knocked the market down by 16% over seven weeks, the market didn’t break even for an additional four months. But that was oil talking.
The current market environment may be unique, because it’s entirely in the hands of one reckless individual. As the late Michael Metz of Oppenheimer & Co. taught me, the stock market typically rises in times of economic growth and economic downturns, as long as investors know where things stand on the turn of the wheel.
What they hate is uncertainty, and no one revels in squeezing uncertainty until it screams for mercy like Trump. Consider how the market got whipsawed by his announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs, a faux-protectionist stunt that took place on April 2, 2025, and therefore marked its one-year anniversary Thursday.
The draconian tariffs were announced, amended, partially withdrawn, reimposed, etc., etc., until investors got queasy on the merry-go-round. The Supreme Court finally put a stop to the shenanigans on Feb. 20.
One month after the initial announcement, investors still didn’t know what to make of it. The S&P was virtually flat, the Dow had lost 2.15% and the Nasdaq was up 2.1%. Since then, investors have learned enough about Trump’s decision-making to disregard the chatter. (This is the TACO trade, for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” in action.) As of Thursday, the S&P had gained 13.7% since Liberation Day, the Dow was up 9.1% and the Nasdaq was up 19.3%.
The Iran war is driving a whipsaw all its own. The market has been rising and falling in accordance with whether investors buy into Trump’s optimism or grow downcast at the absence of any endgame, a judgment that can change minute by minute. But it has remained in a tight range of 3 to 5 percentage points.
The latest week provides a good illustration: Tuesday saw shares turn in their best day in months, with the Dow gaining 1,125 points, or 2.49%, and the other indices roughly matching its performance.
But on Thursday, the stock index futures markets plummeted after Trump’s vacuous address to the nation, ostensibly due to disappointment that he didn’t provide an ending date or show that he knows what he’s doing. Yet investors didn’t show the same anxiety once trading started, sending the indices into a sort of fugue state. The S&P gained a meager 7.37 points, or 0.11%, the Dow lost 61.07 (0.13%) and the Nasdaq gained 38.23 points (0.18%), all on volume a fraction of what it has been in recent weeks. The trading range held.
It’s possible, of course, that the market will be stirred out of its slumber by a major development. A ceasefire, say, or something bad. Or that the Iran war will transition to a new phase that makes it resemble the oil embargos of the past rather than a transitory disruption of the status quo. We won’t know until it happens.
Until then, the average investor’s choice is between moving everything into cash, or strapping in for the ride.
Business
Jeff Shell steps down as Paramount president after legal battle with gambler
Jeff Shell agreed to step down as president of Paramount Skydance after becoming entangled in a legal battle with a controversial Las Vegas gambler and self-styled “fixer.”
Paramount announced Shell’s departure Wednesday after the two sides negotiated an amicable resolution to the drama. Paramount said its external review into Shell’s conduct, initiated by Paramount’s board of directors, found no violation of securities laws.
Shell also resigned as a Paramount board member to focus on his legal skirmish, the company said.
His departure comes after just eight months on the job.
Paramount Skydance “is grateful for Mr. Shell’s many contributions and to have relied on him as a valued advisor,” the company said in its statement.
The veteran entertainment executive officially joined the media company with David Ellison’s takeover in August, though he had been a key member of Ellison’s team for nearly two years as the group worked to assemble the pieces of the tech scion’s growing empire. Ellison’s Skydance Media acquired Paramount and then pulled off a stunning $111-billion deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery in late February.
Shell brought substantial experience running a media company to Ellison’s inner circle, a group that included former investment bankers and others who haven’t run a large-scale enterprise. But his role within the company long felt awkward because key division managers, including the heads of CBS, the Paramount movie studio and the company’s streaming businesses, reported to Ellison, which left Shell with a nebulous portfolio.
He wasn’t planning to stay on after the company acquires Warner Bros. Discovery, according to two people close to the situation who were not authorized to speak publicly. Paramount hopes to complete that deal this summer.
Shell’s exit this week was prompted by his unlikely association with the high-roller, Robert James “R.J.” Cipriani, who created a public stir after his dealings with Shell went south.
Cipriani sued Shell in Los Angeles County Superior Court on March 9, alleging fraud and breach of an oral contract. Cipriani claimed that he provided Shell with “sophisticated, high-value crisis communications services,” according to his suit.
He alleged Shell spilled corporate secrets, which Shell has denied. Cipriani said he reported Shell to the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission because Shell allegedly had discussed highly sensitive Paramount information with him: Paramount’s $7.7-billion deal last summer to bring UFC mixed-martial arts fights to CBS and other Paramount outlets.
Cipriani accused Shell of failing to deliver on a verbal pledge to help him produce an English-language version of a Roku TV Spanish music show.
Shell maintained Cipriani fictionalized the two men’s dealings, then spread “false and salacious lies to extract a massive payday,” according to a counterclaim filed by Shell. Cipriani has been seeking $150 million in damages.
In his court documents, Shell said the two men met only twice and that Shell owed him nothing.
But the Cipriani controversy made Shell’s future at Paramount untenable, the sources told The Times.
There was just “too much noise,” one of the sources said.
The Ellisons wanted to stay focused on building Paramount and completing their Warner Bros. takeover. The company needs to line up regulatory approvals in the U.S. and abroad.
Jeff Shell, Paramount Skydance president.
(Paramount / Skydance)
Paramount’s board last month hired the Gibson Dunn law firm to look into Cipriani’s allegations.
The firm conducted a “complete and thorough” review, Paramount said.
“The facts demonstrated that [Cipriani’s] allegations do not establish a securities law violation,” Paramount said. “Mr. Shell promptly notified PSKY of these accusations and is taking forceful legal action.”
Paramount Skydance, and its board members also named in Cipriani’s lawsuit, plan to respond “to the frivolous and baseless claims against PSKY and its named board members and stockholders,” the company said.
The firm attributed Shell’s decision to step down as “consistent with Mr. Shell’s commitment to prioritizing PSKY’s success.”
His departure comes three years after he was ousted as NBCUniversal chief executive.
NBCUniversal-owner Comcast hired a law firm to investigate him after a CNBC anchor filed an internal sexual harassment claim against him. Shell stepped down, acknowledging that he’d had an “inappropriate relationship” with the journalist, who has since left the company.
The job at Paramount was envisioned to be his second act.
Shell’s dealings with Cipriani began with an August 2024 meeting at litigator Patty Glaser’s Century City office.
At the time, Glaser represented both men and urged Cipriani to “cease” his efforts to drum up damaging stories about Shell, who was trying to recover from the scandal that cost him his job at NBC.
Robert James “R.J.” Cipriani in Amazon Prime Video’s 2025 series, “Cocaine Quarterback.”
(Courtesy of Prime)
Near the end of that meeting, Cipriani pledged to help Shell keep negative publicity at bay, according to sources and court documents.
The two men communicated via text messages, on-and-off, for about 18 months.
“Nobody believed me,” Cipriani said Wednesday. “The best thing I did was cooperate with Gibson Dunn and showed them that the texts were real.”
It’s unclear whether Ellison will look to bring in other experienced media executives or look to senior Warner Bros. Discovery executives following Paramount’s proposed takeover of that company.
Times staff writer Stacy Perman contributed to this report.
Business
Video: Unraveling the Mystery Behind Bitcoin’s Creator
new video loaded: Unraveling the Mystery Behind Bitcoin’s Creator
By John Carreyrou, Sutton Raphael, James Surdam, Coleman Lowndes and Joey Sendaydiego
April 8, 2026
Business
Commentary: Exploring the moon while cutting NASA? Why Trump’s 2027 budget misfires
Trump’s budget proposal takes aim at programs that make Americans smarter, healthier and safer. What’s his real agenda?
The oldest, most enduring cliche about government policy is the one about how budgets are political, not fiscal, documents.
The Trump administration’s budget proposal for the 2027-28 fiscal year, unveiled Friday, seems designed to set a new standard for partisan ideology as a spending standard.
You may have seen news coverage of the budget’s top lines, which call for $1.5 trillion in defense spending next year and cuts totaling $73 billion in nondefense spending. But those figures fail to communicate the raw flavor of the budget cuts or how they’re described in the 92-page document.
It’s an extinction-level event for science.
— Casey Dreier, Planetary Society, on budget cuts at NASA
Nor do they provide perspective for the magnitude of the defense increase or the damage that would be wreaked upon crucial social programs.
The defense request, for instance, would be a 42% increase over the current year, but it might be better judged as what Todd Harrison of the pro-business American Enterprise Institute describes unhappily as “the highest level of funding for defense in US history, surpassing even the peak funding during World War II.”
Adjusted to today’s dollars, Harrison calculates, the World War II peak was a bit lower than $1.2 trillion.
The administration minimizes the overall budgetary effect of its spending plans by projecting average growth in gross national product at 3% annually over the next decade.
That’s an ambitious goal, to say the least. Over the last 25 years — that is, in this century — U.S. economic growth has reached or exceeded 3% in only three years, including a pandemic-era surge to 6.1% in 2021. Last year it was only 2.1%.
On the other side of the ledger, the nondefense budget would be cut by 10%. But programs the White House has specifically targeted for being contrary to its ideology would suffer far more devastating cuts. Some scientific programs, such those concerned with global warming or the social and economic implications of science, technology and healthcare policies would be slashed by more than 50%.
NASA may be enjoying a moment just now, as its Artemis II spacecraft rounded the far side of the moon Monday, preparatory to heading back to Earth in the first moonshot since Apollo 17 last landed men on the lunar surface in December 1972.
But Trump proposes slashing the agency’s budget by $5.6 billion, or 23%. It gets worse: Trump would cut NASA’s science division by $34 billion, or 47%, canceling more than 40 projects, of which about 20 are currently underway.
“It’s an extinction-level event for science,” Casey Dreier, chief of space policy at the Planetary Society, told Nature.
Among the programs facing extinction is NASA’s Office of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Engagement, which aimed to interest minority students in those so-called STEM disciplines.
“NASA will inspire the next generation of explorers through exciting, ambitious space missions,” the budget says, “not through subsidizing woke STEM programming and research that prioritizes some groups of students over others.”
The budget leaves unclear how those “exciting, ambitious space missions” will come to pass, since it also cuts $297 million from NASA’s annual spending on space technology.
The proposed cuts to science programs more generally would be devastating. The National Science Foundation, one of the most important scientific grant-making agencies in the world, would lose $4.8 billion, or 55% of its funding.
The language the budget uses to rationalize such cuts speaks volumes about the drivers of its draconian cuts in nondefense spending: It’s an expression of Trumpian culture war hobby horses such as hostility to diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. The term “woke” or its derivatives appear 32 times in the budget document — as many times as it appears in Project 2025, the far-right roadmap for a second Trump term published by the Heritage Foundation in 2023.
The $8.5 billion in proposed budget cuts to K-12 spending would include the elimination of the $70-million Teacher Quality Partnership, which the budget describes as a program to “train teachers … on divisive ideologies.”
Among those, the budget says, are “inappropriate and divisive topics such as Critical Race Theory, diversity, equity, and inclusion, social justice activism,” and “anti-racism.” Nothing in the document explains why any of those things are considered bad; the terms are merely shibboleths that Trump’s core audience is expected to accept as gospel.
Services for transgender individuals would take a major hit from the budget: Among the $204.5 million in Treasury Department funding for community development initiatives on the chopping block would be support for “gender extremism,” such as for clinics that provide “‘gender-affirming hormone therapy’ and other services to young patients.”
As I’ve reported, Trump has bought heavily into conservative attacks on gender-affirming care, including by spouting claims that I labeled in 2024 as “deranged and despicable,” such as that schoolchildren are being kidnapped by school administrators and subjected to surgery against their will.
Perhaps the most concentrated assault in the proposed budget, as my colleague Hayley Smith reported, is the one aimed at research, development, and construction of renewable energy sources. The budget plan contains no fewer than 20 references to what it calls the “green new scam.”
This is an infantile reference to what’s typically known as the “Green New Deal,” a raft of policies incorporating a transition from fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal to renewables as well as the concept of “environmental justice,” meaning efforts to ensure that the transition doesn’t overly burden disadvantaged communities.
Trump has consistently called for more development of fossil sources, including a revival of coal despite its unrelenting and inevitable glide path toward extinction as a component of U.S. energy generation. The budget plan doubles down on this policy, calling renewables R&D a “leftist” ideology. This is tied to policies “opening up more Federal land and waters for oil, gas, and clean coal development,” the document says. (“Clean coal,” which is to say nonpolluting coal, is a myth, as I’ve reported.)
The budget plan pays tribute to another Trump obsession, the supposed evils of wind power. Cuts to the Interior Department budget would “put a stop to disastrous offshore wind energy projects that harm hardworking coastal communities, precious wildlife, and American military readiness.” None of these assertions about wind power is supported by reality.
Some cuts appear to reflect a determination to exact retribution from agencies that have thwarted cherished conservative goals. The National Institutes of Health, a consistent target of conservative budget-cutters, would lose $5.9 billion, or 12.5% of its budget. That would include major cuts to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which was formerly headed by the respected immunologist Anthony Fauci.
The budget drafters couldn’t resist taking a swipe at Fauci, who has been the target of smears from Republicans who have tried to blame him, absurdly, for the COVID pandemic. The budget document accuses Fauci of steering government funds to the Wuhan (China) Institute of Virology, which it called “the likely source of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
There’s no compelling evidence that a laboratory was a source of the virus, as I’ve documented: The overwhelming weight of scientific judgment is that the virus reached humans from natural zoologic sources. The budget plan resurrects the long-debunked conspiracy theory that Fauci orchestrated a 2020 scientific paper that judged the lab-leak theory to be “improbable.” The budget drafters assert that Fauci (who retired in 2022) “commissioned” the paper, which is simply untrue.
Another theme percolating through the budget plan is the need to protect our wealthiest taxpayers from, well, taxes. The budget would cut $1.4 billion from the budget of the Internal Revenue Service, reversing a restoration of the agency’s enforcement capabilities undertaken during the Biden administration. Trump cut IRS staffing by 20,000, or 27%. The document asserts that the IRS “has been weaponized against the American people, small businesses, and non-profit organizations.”
According to the Yale Budget Lab, every dollar the IRS spends on audits yields more than $7 in returns. Plainly that’s not coming from average Americans, but from the upper crust.
None of this means that the budget proposal isn’t valuable, to an extent. It’s a convenient one-stop window into Trump’s personal fixations: the elimination of “radical gender and racial ideologies that poison the minds of Americans,” the horrors of “the globalist climate agenda,” the “invasion” of violent criminals from abroad, and so on. In other words, there’s nothing new under the Trumpian sun.
-
Atlanta, GA4 days ago1 teenage girl killed, another injured in shooting at Piedmont Park, police say
-
Culture1 week agoDo You Know Where These Famous Authors Are Buried?
-
Movie Reviews7 days agoVaazha 2 first half review: Hashir anchors a lively, chaos-filled teen tale
-
Georgia2 days agoGeorgia House Special Runoff Election 2026 Live Results
-
Pennsylvania2 days agoParents charged after toddler injured by wolf at Pennsylvania zoo
-
Education1 week agoVideo: We Put Dyson’s $600 Vacuum to the Test
-
Milwaukee, WI3 days agoPotawatomi Casino Hotel evacuated after fire breaks out in rooftop HVAC system
-
Entertainment1 week agoInside Ye’s first comeback show at SoFi Stadium