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Alaska and NW Canada Cold Snap Review

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Alaska and NW Canada Cold Snap Review


Most of December and the first two weeks of January were very cold in most of Alaska and northwest Canada. I posted about the cold in the first half of December here, the cold snap through Christmas here, December overall for Alaska here and Arctic context for the cold snap in the December climate review here.

This post serves as an event recap, though because of the breath and duration of event this review is necessarily selective. Also I have only limited tools to assess the historical context of this event in northwest Canada, so I’ve surely missed some important highlights. Because this event was international scope, I provide temperature information in both degrees F and degrees C. This makes the post longer, but I hope it’s relevant whatever your preferred temperature scale.

The 2025-26 cold snap was distinguished primarily by the long duration of the very cold weather rather than daily extremes. Based on ERA5 Land reanalysis, for Alaska overall, every day but two between December 4 and January 15 was colder than the 1991-2020 baseline average (Fig. 1 top), making this the most significant prolonged cold snap since 2012 (which was colder). For the Yukon Territory, every day between December 5 and January 9 was colder than average (Fig. 1 bottom).

Fig. 1 Daily average temperature difference from the 1991-2020 baseline average December 4, 2025 to January 20, 2026 for Alaska (top) and the Yukon Territory (bottom). Data from ERA5 Land courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus

The coldest period for northwest North America overall was December 5 to January 15 (Fig. 2). The departures are quite markable given this is a seven week period.

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Fig. 2 Average temperature departure from 1991-2020 baseline average for the seven weeks December 5, 2025 to January 15, 2026. For Alaska and the Yukon Territory overall, this was the coldest 42 day period during this cold snap. Data from ERA5 Land courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus.

For the Yukon Territory overall the coldest day was December 22, with temperatures south of 65°N widely 20°C or more below normal (Fig. 3). The very low temperatures extended into the eastern Interior, but Alaska west of about 160°W was notably warmer than normal.

Fig. 3 December 22, 2025 average temperature difference from the smoothed 1991-2020 average, degrees F (top) and degrees C (bottom). Data from ERA5 Land courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus.

The coldest day from the central Yukon Territory westward into eastern and central Interior Alaska was January 4th (Fig. 4). Temperatures in southern YT were not quite as low as around winter solstice. With above normal temperatures across the Alaska Peninsula this wasn’t quite coldest day for Alaska overall.

Fig. 4 January 4, 2026 average temperature difference from the smoothed 1991-2020 average, degrees F (top) and degrees C (bottom). Data from ERA5 Land courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus.

The coldest day for Alaska overall was January 8, anchored by the deep cold over southwest mainland but temperatures widely 15°F (9°C) or more below normal over mainland Alaska (Fig. 5). At this point temperatures had moderated considerably in the Yukon Territory and Southeast Alaska.

Fig. 5 January 8, 2026 average temperature difference from the smoothed 1991-2020 average, degrees F (top) and degrees C (bottom). Data from ERA5 Land courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus.

The lowest temperatures recorded during December and January (Fig. 6) were notable, though not to record levels across Interior Alaska and the Yukon Territory. Both Tok and Chicken, Alaska, with lows of -63F (-52.8C), recorded the lowest temperatures at their respective locations since January 2009. Fairbanks’ and Tanana’s lowest temperature was the same as the low in 2024, and Bettles had a lower temperature last winter. Carmacks, YT reported the lowest temperature since 1996 but Whitehorse, Dawson, Beaver Creek and Pelly Crossing all had the lowest temperature only since 2022.

Fig. 6 plot of site specific lowest temperature reported in December 2025 and January 2026 in degrees F (top) and degrees C (bottom).

Beyond the Yukon and Interior Alaska there were a few daily records and other short term extremes during this cold snap.

Juneau airport low temperature of -10F (-23.3C) on December 22 and 23 were daily record lows and also the lowest temperature there since 1995.

In Southcentral Alaska there were a scattering of daily record lows the first and second weeks of January. Talkeetna set a daily record of -38F (-38.9C) on January 8. This is the first daily record low to be set in January since 1975. Also notable was the exceptionally cold January 3rd at Portage Glacier Visitor Center southeast of Girdwood. Calm winds and clear skies allowed the temperature to stay low all day, with a high temperature of -22F (-30.0C) and a low of -30F (-34.9C) the coldest day at this location since the observation site was established in 1998, though January 1989 probably had at least one day as cold or colder. Kenai’s low temperature of -36F (-37.8C) on January 8 wasn’t a daily record but it was the lowest temperature there since 1999.

In Southwest Alaska, King Salmon set daily record lows on two days and Bethel on one day.

The duration of cold snap is illustrated in these site-specific highlights:

  • Fairbanks Airport:

    • 21 days with lows of -40F/C or lower, all between December 14 and January 13, the most since the winter of 1970-71

    • 57 hours with dense ice fog (visibility one-quarter mile or lower), the most since the winter of 2008-09

    • 30-day average temperature -31.0F (-35.0C) December 15 to January 13, the lowest since 1970-71

  • Tok: 22 days with lows of -50F (-45.6C) or lower, all between December 8 and January 6

  • Chicken: 29 days with lows of -40F/C or lower, all between December 6 and January 10

Notable “consecutive days” streaks include:

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  • Fairbanks Airport:

    • 32 straight days high temperature 0F (-17.8C) or lower (December 14 to January 14), second longest on record

    • 43 straight days with daily low temperature -10F (-23.3C) or lower (December 4 to January 15), second longest on record

  • Tanana:

  • Eagle (cooperative station):

    • 42 straight days with daily high temperature 0F (-17.8C) or lower, (December 5 to January 15), longest on record

  • Northway:

  • Anchorage:

  • Dawson, YT: 19 straight days with lows -40F/C or lower, longest since 1996

The daily temperature ranges are shown at Fairbanks and Tok (Fig. 7). Fairbanks, the westernmost location shown, had two notable moderating events in December, both associated with pulses of warmer air aloft moving from the Bering Sea into the central Interior and both produced significant snowfall. The first of these made as far east as Tok. Also notable at all these valley locations are a number of very cold days with only a few degrees spread between the high and low temperature. These days were clear (excepting local ice fog) and calm and vividly illustrates that although the sun scraps above the horizon for a few hours, in December and early January this provides no significant solar heating poleward of 60°N.

Fig. 7 daily low to high temperature (blue bars) and 1991-2020 normal (gray band) between December 4, 2025 to January 15, 2026 at Fairbanks (top) and Tok (bottom). Data courtesy NOAA.NWS and NCEI.

The cold was particularly unrelenting at Dawson, YT in December (Fig. 8, top), although the coldest day occurred on January 4. At Whitehorse (Fig. 8, bottom), there we two distinct episodes of deep cold, one in early December and another around winter solstice.

Fig. 8 daily low to high temperature (blue bars) and 1991-2020 normal (gray band) between December 4, 2025 to January 15, 2026 at Dawson (top) and Whitehorse (bottom). Data courtesy Environment and Climate Change Canada.

An historical perspective on this cold snap at Fairbanks is shown in the times series plotting the coldest 10-day periods each winter since the early 1900s (Fig. 9). By this measure, this cold snap was slightly colder than 2011-12 and not quite as cold as 1988-89. However, about a dozen winters prior to 1980 had a 10-day period colder than this event.

Fig. 9 Fairbanks lowest 10-day average temperature each winter 1905-06 to 2025-26. A few winters are missing prior to 1916 due to excessive missing data. Data courtesy NOAA/NCEI and NWS.

The mid-atmospheric flow pattern and its slow evolution in December and January explains a lot of what happened on the ground. During the second half of December (Fig. 10, left) extremely strong high pressure aloft over the Bering Sea supported high pressure at the surface over eastern Interior Alaska and the Yukon. Because of the lack of solar heating, clear skies allowed continuous escape of heat from the top of the snowpack to outer space, with the cold air pooling in valleys. In early January (Fig 10, right) the pattern changed, with a general westward shift of the high and low pressure centers aloft compared to December. For example, the the Being high pressure shifted northwest to be near the Sea Of Okhotsk, while the low pressure over central Arctic Canada in December shifted west to be over the Beaufort Sea in early January. This westward “retrogression”, so-called because it’s in contrast to the more usual west-to-east progression of mid-latitude weather features near ground, is a common feature of the mid-atmosphere flow pattern during the cold season.

Fig. 10 Average 500 hPa heights and departures from 1991-2020 baseline for the second half of December (left) and the first half January (right). Data from the NCAR/NCEP R1 reanalysis data courtesy NOAA/ESRL.



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Frequent travelers weigh in on Alaska Airlines’ new rewards program

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Frequent travelers weigh in on Alaska Airlines’ new rewards program


I got up early last week to take my own advice: flying to Juneau to visit my legislators.

But in addition to representing Alaskans in Juneau, all of Alaska’s legislators are frequent flyers.

Alaska Airlines Flight 62 was full of sleepy Alaskans on a similar mission. While I was knocking on doors regarding travel issues, there were others who had their own pitch for lawmakers: Future Farmers of America, Alaska’s State School for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing, the Alaska Council on Aging and a number of other groups.

It cost me 20,000 Atmos Rewards points for a round-trip ticket. Others who bought their tickets well in advance paid around $400, while last-minute travelers can pay as much as $700 round-trip. There are a couple of plans to carve 30% off last-minute tickets. Every Alaska Airlines frequent flyer gets a Constituent Fare discount off of three- or seven-day advance purchase fares to Juneau, one time only. Every Club 49 member gets a Travel Now certificate for 30% off the walk-up fare, one time only.

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Over the course of the day, I had a half-dozen appointments with legislators, with a script to stay on topic for the 15-minute visit.

But Capitol insiders will confess that much of the real action is in the stairwell and the hallways, where you bump into legislators, staffers, lobbyists and media types.

Everybody I bumped into wanted to talk about Alaska Airlines. Specifically, frequent flyers were concerned about the high cost of travel between Anchorage and Juneau. Or, they were confused about Alaska’s new Atmos Rewards program. Or both.

Earlier this month, I asked some readers to give Atmos a report card grade, A through F.

Additionally, I asked for a show of hands at a recent travel-themed party. In between I called some super-frequent flyers to get their opinions.

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The results were enlightening.

To review, when the Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan morphed into Atmos Rewards, they really shuffled the deck.

All the miles-related jargon was gone. Now, it’s all about the points. There are status points, which determine your elite-level tier: silver, gold, platinum and titanium. Then there are bonus points that you can use to redeem for flights.

Further, the number of status points required to achieve the top tier, titanium, is increasing by 35% this year, from 100,000 to 135,000 points.

In addition to the regular Alaska Airlines credit card with the $99 companion fare, there’s a new Summit Atmos card that costs $395 per year. Alaska has loaded it up with a few bells and whistles, including lounge passes and some rollover points to jump-start next year’s quest for elite status.

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There were just two respondents who gave Atmos an A, primarily because of the extra benefits of the Summit card for super-spenders. The biggest advantage for Summit cardholders is the 50% increase in the number of status points you get from your everyday spend.

Regular Alaska Airlines cardholders, now called Ascent Atmos cards, can earn one status point for every $3 spent. Additionally, cardholders still receive one bonus point for every dollar spent.

Summit cardholders get one status mile for every $2 spent.

So if you run a company and charge a lot of stuff on your credit card, it’s easier than ever to charge your way to titanium status without ever taking a flight.

Several — 27 — of the super-frequent flyers who responded to my poll gave the program a B.

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Janine Amon has flown more than 2,000,000 miles on Alaska Airlines. She gives the program a B. She’s particularly grateful for the special phone number for titanium-level elites. She’s called the number primarily for securing credit from Alaska Airlines’ numerous partner airlines, including Philippine Air and Royal Air Maroc.

As a super-frequent flyer, Amon has stories of mix-ups and snafus, particularly between Alaska and Hawaiian Air, as well as partner airlines.

Another super-flyer, Bart Parker, gives the program a B+. Even though it’s only February, Parker has amassed more than 85,000 status points.

Parker’s litmus test is upgrades. “My upgrades are still coming through,” he wrote.

Once Parker is able to upgrade to the new 787 lie-flat seats, or into business class on partner airlines, including Hawaiian, he said he’s willing to bump up his grade to an A-.

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But upgrades for Alaska’s new 787s to Europe and Asia, or on Hawaiian’s South Pacific flights, are hard to come by.

Alaska Airlines has high hopes that starting in April, titanium-level flyers will be able to stand by for same-day lie-flat business class seats on Alaska, Hawaiian and partner airlines.

Chris Ross is a million-miler on both Alaska Airlines and Delta.

Ross travels around the country working with companies on leadership development, employee engagement and health and safety.

Several super-flyers, including Ross, chimed in with specific operational issues on Alaska: missed connections, mechanical issues, delays and overall reliability. The Atmos game was way down the list for many of these travelers.

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Ross gave the program a D.

An A is “Happy Days,” where Atmos is offering everything you expect from a loyalty program, including some “surprise and delight” moments. A B is “High Potential,” reflecting an honest effort to accommodate both Hawaiian and Alaska Airlines in the mix, plus an increasing number of partner airlines. But there’s room for improvement.

I bumped into political pundit Jeff Landfield of the Alaska Landmine in the Capitol. He pulled me aside for a lengthy discussion on Atmos and gave the program a B.

A C or “Curb Your Enthusiasm” reflects a lower score because of delays, frequent IT outages, or struggling with the website/app. Thirty respondents graded Atmos with a C.

Most respondents —38 — chose D or “Work in Progress.” These travelers are suffering through increased costs for point redemption, including high taxes and fees for European awards. There’s a glimmer of hope for improvement after full integration of Hawaiian and Alaska in April.

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The F grade reflects “Grounds for dismissal.” These travelers, 16 of them, like most respondents, are “baked in” to the Atmos program with status, points and credit cards. But their view is it will take a shoulder-to-the-wheel effort to bring the program back on course.

Just over 50 respondents is not a huge sample. The respondents all live in Alaska and they are frequent flyers. To me, it reflects the mood of the travelers in the Capitol last week.

Thankfully, the planes in and out of Juneau were operating on time in the midst of a “wintry mix” of snow and rain with a light breeze. Several of my fellow travelers on Alaska 62 in the morning were turning around to fly home on Flight 67 in the evening. That makes for a long day, but underscores the value of face-to-face meetings for constituents in Juneau.





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The story of the Alaska lovebirds that go their own way

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The story of the Alaska lovebirds that go their own way


A whimbrel rests on a willow near the Jago River in summer 2024. (Photo by Alan Kneidel)

During a month of endless summer light, a mated pair of shorebirds teaches their four chicks how to catch insects. The babies grow fat and strong on the tundra high in northeastern Alaska. They are soon ready for their first migration.

On a random day, the male then jumps off the cushion of northern plants and, done with Alaska, flaps eastward. The female pivots and flies west.

The male whimbrel pauses for 25 days at Hudson Bay, continues over Nova Scotia and then follows the Atlantic coast on a nonstop journey to a wetland in Brazil.

The female cuts over the nose of the Seward Peninsula and stops for two weeks on the Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta. The fattened bird then tracks the Pacific shoreline — resting a week in San Francisco Bay and then some at the mouth of the Colorado River — until it reaches Colombia.

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The whimbrels winter apart on opposite coasts of South America.

The following summer, both birds reverse course, reaching northeastern Alaska in late May.

The divergent migration paths of a mated pair of whimbrels, shorebirds that migrate from South America to Alaska and back. (Illustration by Dan Ruthrauff)

Hopping across a green bench above the Katakturuk River, they each recognize the other’s shape, perhaps a remembered scent.

Their love blossoms anew. The female soon lays four eggs in a shallow nest.

This Valentine’s Day story arrives via a biologist who is about to learn a lot more about the whimbrels of northeastern Alaska.

Dan Ruthrauff has studied the ptarmigan-size shorebirds with roundish bodies and long, curved beaks for years. He has held them in his hands within the Kanuti Wildlife Refuge in central Alaska’s boreal forest and the tundra off the Colville River in northern Alaska.

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Ruthrauff, a longtime researcher with the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center in Anchorage, is taking over a study Shiloh Schulte initiated in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge a few years ago.

Schulte, who died in a helicopter crash last summer, was in the second year of a newly funded three-year study that included monitoring a mated pair of whimbrels he had radio tagged. To the astonishment of other researchers, Schulte found that the two whimbrels — birds that probably mate for life — migrated in fall via different coasts of the Americas, and wintered in different countries.

In January 2025, Ruthrauff retired earlier than he had anticipated from the USGS Science Center in Anchorage. He was one of many scientists who left that organization of excellence due to pressure from the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency.

A couple of months after a June 2025 helicopter crash near the Deadhorse airport took the life of biologist Shiloh Schulte and the helicopter’s pilot, a supervisor with Manomet Conservation Services of Massachusetts contacted Ruthrauff. He asked if Ruthrauff would consider extending Schulte’s work on the northern whimbrels, which can live to be 20 years old.

“The idea grew for me to work with the organization to help carry Shiloh’s work forward,” Ruthrauff said. “It was kind of a nice lifeline for me.”

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In 2021, the late Shiloh Schulte holds a whimbrel that nested above the Katakturuk River in northern Alaska. (Photo by Kirsti Carr)

Ruthrauff recalled a track from one of the birds he studied with his USGS colleagues. The whimbrel left a site near Quinhagak, on the mouth of the Kuskokwim River, and flew nonstop to a site in western Mexico, overflying the Baja Peninsula.

“This was over water the whole way, skipping Canada, the Lower 48, and Baja,” Ruthrauff said. “This was 5,700 kilometers nonstop, over less than three and a half days.”

Before Schulte found the mated pair that migrated via different ends of the continent, biologists thought that whimbrels that went east in fall might have been a different subspecies than the birds that headed west.

“We thought those birds were probably unlikely to breed,” Ruthrauff said.

But the birds have produced healthy chicks. Schulte found that a surprising three out of nine mated pairs of birds were composed of males that migrated by one ocean, females another.

That means two birds responsible for the same tiny nest on the tundra face dangers from the Caribbean and South America, where they are hunted for sport and food, as well as on the Pacific coast. Whimbrel numbers worldwide have declined by at least 70% over the last few decades.

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“It shows the importance of these interconnected sites across the whole (Western) Hemisphere,” Ruthrauff said.

This summer, Ruthrauff will follow the whimbrels north to their nesting site near the Katakturuk River in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which flows straight north from the Brooks Range into the Beaufort Sea. He wants to learn the birds’ life history and to find out where during their epic migration the birds face the most danger.

If he’s lucky, Ruthrauff may even witness the original long-distance couple that Schulte discovered, the plucky travelers once again reunited in northernmost Alaska.





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Alaska House Republicans criticize majority’s decision to temporarily set dividend at zero in budget draft

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Alaska House Republicans criticize majority’s decision to temporarily set dividend at zero in budget draft


Rep. DeLena Johnson, R-Palmer, asks a question during a meeting of the House Finance Committee on Jan. 23, 2025. (Marc Lester / ADN)

House minority Republicans are decrying a procedural decision to temporarily zero out the Permanent Fund dividend size in next year’s draft budget while conversations are underway on its ultimate amount.

Majority members on the House Finance Committee have repeatedly underscored their intention to include a dividend in this year’s final budget.

In a 6-5 vote on Wednesday, majority members set the annual payout to Alaskans at zero, with the promise that the dividend size will ultimately be determined later in the session.

The move was opposed by all committee Republicans, who said that despite the fact the move was temporary, it masked the state’s fiscal challenges.

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Lawmakers have not followed the existing state statute for determining the annual Permanent Fund dividend for a decade, as lower oil revenue forced them to turn to the fund’s earnings to pay for an increasing share of government services.

But Gov. Mike Dunleavy again included the statutory dividend in this year’s budget draft, asking lawmakers to draw roughly $1.5 billion from the state’s savings to cover its cost.

Republicans in the House have conceded that Dunleavy’s request for a payment of roughly $3,800 is unreasonable, but they have yet to land on a dividend size that would appease their minority caucus.

Leaders of the bipartisan majorities in the House and Senate, meanwhile, have said they will seek to adopt a balanced budget and avoid significant draws from state savings. Last year, that strategy led to a dividend of $1,000 per eligible recipient.

“Do I think that there’s going to be a full statutory PFD? Do I think there’s even a possibility of that? No, I don’t think so,” House Minority Leader DeLena Johnson, a Palmer Republican, said on Thursday. “Do I think that it could be higher and better? Absolutely. And do I think it’s the closest thing that we have to a spending cap in this universe that we live in right now? Absolutely.”

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With the dividend set at zero, the budget draft that lawmakers will use as their template as they build next year’s spending plan is starting with a revenue surplus of more than $800 million, compared with Dunleavy’s starting point of a $1.5 billion deficit.

Republicans said that artificially large surplus, which also doesn’t take into account other significant funding items like disaster response expenses, could lead to misperceptions about the state’s fiscal constraints.

Rep. Will Stapp, a Fairbanks Republican who serves on the Finance Committee, said he is concerned that House majority members will use that budget surplus as the basis for adding more spending on state services to the budget.

“When I hear the co-chair of Finance talking about all the things that he’s going to spend money on, and he deposits the entirety of the PFD into the general fund, that makes me think that we’re not taking this deficit very seriously at the moment,” said Stapp. “I’m not super optimistic at the moment that they’re going to have downward pressure on the budget.”

House Finance Committee Co-Chair Andy Josephson, an Anchorage Democrat, said that the advantage of beginning the budget-making process with a dividend set at zero is that “now we can hear from all 11 members of the Finance Committee at the end of March, by amendment, and have a debate about what that number should be.”

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“What constrains us is public perception and desire for a dividend,” Josephson said. “But the prospect of paying a statutory dividend is so obliterated in our fiscal position that it doesn’t constrain us anymore.”

Ultimately, Josephson said that the dividend this year is likely to be between $800 and $1,400 per eligible Alaskan, depending in part on whether lawmakers approve a draw from savings as part of the budget-making process or stick to available revenue.

Concrete discussions on the size of the dividend likely won’t begin in earnest until mid-March, when the Department of Revenue will issue an updated revenue forecast. The size of the dividend will be shaped by ongoing policy questions, Josephson said, like whether to increase education funding and whether to adopt a new public pension system.

“Once those policy calls are made, then we can better see what remains,” said Josephson.

Rep. Calvin Schrage, an Anchorage independent, and Rep. Neal Foster, a Nome Democrat, co-chair the House Finance Committee alongside Josephson. They voiced support for the budget draft on Wednesday.

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“Everybody knows that the PFD is not in this. That’s the biggest elephant in the room, and I think we all need to talk about that, and it’s going to be an ongoing conversation,” said Foster.

As lawmakers continue discussions on next year’s spending plan, next week they are also set to debate a request from Dunleavy to draw more than $400 million from savings to cover a deficit in the current year’s budget.





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