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Los Angeles Rams: Protection for Matthew Stafford

A month ago, the Rams looked like a near-complete team. Special teams aside, they had answers everywhere. Coaching. Quarterback. Playmakers. A defense that could steal a game if necessary. They’re still a formidable opponent, but cracks have started to emerge.

The Rams barely survived their divisional round game against the Chicago Bears, and Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford spent the aftermath conducting a public inquest into their own performance. McVay admitted he had been guilty of “bad coaching” against the Bears. Stafford acknowledged he needs to play better. Neither was wrong. And yet, in the game’s final moments, Stafford still delivered the throws that mattered, and the Rams escaped thanks to their defense creating a decisive turnover.

McVay, belatedly, rediscovered the rushing game against the Bears. He ran the ball 19 times in the fourth quarter and overtime after barely doing so for three quarters. It was less an adjustment than a confession: McVay had been too pass-centric. His gameplan was wrong. And that has been the Rams’ greatest strength on offense this season: they can switch up their strategy during a game. But their two playoff games have shown fractures within the offense.

Stafford is not playing well. Against Chicago, he looked rattled and confused as the Bears sent every manner of blitz his way. He made late – and poor – decisions, offering the ball up for grabs or refusing to let it go. On Sunday, he had 11 off-target throws, according to ESPN, his most ever in a playoff game. More than that, he looked uncomfortable in the pocket against a blah Bears pass-rush, moving into pressure and struggling when pushed off his spot. It’s true that McVay didn’t give him enough answers, but Stafford is a limited player at this stage of his career when players are not open by design and he’s forced to create on the fly.

Stafford is taking significantly more sacks in the postseason than he did in the regular season. His offensive line has allowed four times as many free runners on the quarterback as it did before the playoffs. To win it all, the Rams will have to get past relentless pass rushes.

First up is the sternest test. It’s Seattle, on the road. The Seahawks are a tough matchup for anyone. They are particularly tough for the Rams. For as flexible as McVay and Stafford can be on offense, the Seahawks can match them. It will fall on the offensive line, McVay’s play calling, and the team’s protection plan to keep Stafford clean. No team creates as much confusion or crafts as many free runners as the Seahawks. They force the offensive line to communicate and roll out pressure from every conceivable angle.

The Rams can limit some of the blows to Stafford with their run game. They led the league in rush success rate this season and were the only team to crack 50%. In both playoff games, it’s the run they’ve turned to when things have been tight. If the Rams’ offensive line can keep Stafford clean and push the Seahawks’ defensive front off the ball, then the game will be in the hands of a great quarterback and his two star receivers.

Seattle Seahawks: Defense

After hammering the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round, the Seahawks are firm favorites to win the Super Bowl. There are no holes with this team. Sam Darnold, playing through an injured oblique, barely had to do anything against San Francisco. From the opening kickoff, the Seahawks controlled the game and led by three scores at half-time.

It’s small margins that often matter in the playoffs, and all those things tilt in Seattle’s direction. They’re running the ball better than at any point this season – and have the No 1 special teams unit in the playoff field.

Still, this is a team who flow through their defense. The unit finished the regular season first in EPA/play, and was again dominant against the Niners last week. Everywhere you look, there are game-wreckers: DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy II, Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori. But it’s the non-household names such as Ty Okada, Uchenna Nwosu, Josh Jobe and Julian Love who push this group from being great to one of the best in the past 26 years. They are violent. They rush the passer. They shut down opposing run games. In coverage, they are tricky to decipher and play with all-out effort.

Darnold in the second half of the season may not be at the same level as Stafford or Drake Maye, but his defense is the great equaliser.

Denver Broncos: Pass rush

Bo Nix’s injury is cruel. He put together the best performance of his young career to beat the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round. Now, he’s done for the season with a broken ankle.

Enter Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a meaningful pass in two years and has never played in the postseason. At center, Denver could be down to a third-stringer, depending on the health of Alex Forsyth. None of this is ideal, particularly for an offense that lives on its pass protection.

If the Broncos are to survive and advance, their pass rush must step up. It ran a little cold against the Bills, but it has been the team’s superpower all season.

The Broncos led the league in pressures and sacks in the regular season. Vance Joseph, the team’s defensive coordinator, has become more selective about when he blitzes, but the group almost always gets home when he adds extra spice. When sending five or more pass-rushers this season, the Broncos have a 50% pressure rate. Creating havoc in the backfield and forcing turnovers is the Broncos’ best path forward. They cannot expect Stidham to go on a Nick Foles-type run. (He did look good in preseason, Broncos fans!) Edge rusher Nik Bonitto is liable to swing a game on any given snap. He isn’t the most efficient pass rusher, but he is the most explosive remaining in the playoff field. Without timely blitzes and constant pressure from Bonitto, Zach Allen, Malcolm Roach and Jonathan Cooper, the Broncos have no shot.

Denver’s defense has been strong all season. It will need to be special on Sunday and, possibly, beyond. Without Nix, the margin is too thin.

New England Patriots: The good version of Drake Maye

The Patriots were not dazzling against Houston. They were, however, effective at the right times. Now they are one win away from the Super Bowl. Again.

New England’s defense deserves credit. Sure, CJ Stroud threw up on himself last week. But it was the same with the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert, whom the Patriots faced the week before. In both games, the Patriots’ defensive line wrecked shop, with the secondary helping out by masking coverage. The offense did enough against the Chargers and Texans. That has been New England’s formula this season. You can point out the favorable path, the injuries to opponents and the fortunate breaks. None of that is wrong. This is not a juggernaut. Then again, neither was the team that shocked the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI to kick off the Brady-Belichick run.

The Patriots’ defense is good, but it is vulnerable. Against the Chargers, the defense conceded a 38% (!) wide-open target rate to receivers, the highest in a playoff game in six seasons. Herbert simply made poor reads and struggled to maintain his composure as his offensive line melted down. Stroud pieced together one of the worst single postseason performances in history, lobbing the ball up to the Pats defense even when he had receivers open. There will be opportunities for Sean Payton and Stidham down the field. And if New England make it to the Super Bowl, the Rams or Seahawks will be a different magnitude of challenge.

Which means the decisive plays will be in the hands of their own quarterback. Maye could wind up being the league’s MVP. He has been spectacular all season, and he can create plays out of nothing or rip a defense apart by sticking to the scheme. But he has not been as solid in the playoffs as he was during the regular season. Yes, he’s played two outstanding defenses, but it’s also not getting any easier from here on in.

Maye has been at fault for too many negative plays. He has a 50% pressure-to-sack rate in the playoffs and has doubled his turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF. Sure, his offensive line has been beaten up, but he’s also held on to the ball too long. For Maye, that’s usually fine. He can offset those negatives with spectacular throws for chunk yardage. In both playoff games, he has made timely big-time throws – often for scores – to help mitigate the down-to-down struggles.

Taking sacks is one thing. Turning it over is something else. In the playoffs, Maye has contracted a vicious case of fumble-itis, coughing up the ball six times in two games. If it’s going to be in his hands to decide a tight contest, he cannot put the ball in harm’s way. If he can be the quarterback he was in the regular season, the Patriots have a good shot at their first championship of the post-Belichick/Brady era.