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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high
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America’s ranchers are facing their smallest cattle herd in 70 years.
Years of punishing drought, rising costs and an aging ranching workforce have thinned herds across the country. Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding will take years and beef prices aren’t likely to ease anytime soon.
“The biggest thing has been drought,” said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University.
BEEF PRICES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS — BUT AMERICANS AREN’T CUTTING BACK
He said years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, even the cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it hard to rebuild.
“It’s not going to be a quick fix, you’re not going to solve it overnight,” Belasco told Fox News Digital.
Ranchers have sold off many of their cattle in order to cope with rising prices. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images)
Belasco said the aftereffects of years of drought are still being felt and until ranchers can rebuild their herds, consumers will keep paying the price.
“The primary reason you see prices so high is because we haven’t seen any kind of inventory rebuilding,” he said. “Until you see that rebuild, you probably won’t see prices coming back down again.”
That slow rebuilding is a challenge for the cattle industry, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.
“The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” Peel said. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.”
Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said there’s no quick way to ease pressure on beef prices, since it takes roughly two years to bring animals to market and several years to rebuild herds.
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Even as ranchers wait for herds to recover, parched conditions are working against them, turning pastures to dust and feed into a luxury.
Research from the Kansas City Federal Reserve found that with each step up in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see about a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size and a 4% decrease in farm income.
To cope, many ranchers are shrinking their herds. A 2022 Farm Bureau survey found that about two in three ranchers have sold animals off, leaving them with roughly one-third fewer cattle than before.
Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding the cattle inventory will take years. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post/Getty Images)
Few people see the challenges of ranching more clearly than Cole Bolton, owner of K&C Cattle Company, whose pastures stretch along the soft edge of the Texas Hill Country.
“I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage. My message to consumers is simple, folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds,” Bolton told Fox News Digital.
Bolton said the region, known for its red dirt and family-run ranches, has gone nearly three months without rain. While showers were finally arriving, he noted that the cattle industry has weathered one setback after another, from market turmoil to extreme conditions, over the past five years.
The growing strain highlights how persistent drought is reshaping the ranching industry and tightening the nation’s livestock supply.
That pressure is being felt not just on ranches but also at the grocery store.
According to USDA data, the average retail price of beef rose from about $8.51 a pound in August 2024 to $9.85 a pound a year later, a gain of roughly 16%.
The “5-market steer price” represents what ranchers earn for live cattle before they’re processed into meat. The “farm-to-retail” spread reflects everything that happens after that – the costs and profits tied to slaughtering, processing, packaging, shipping and selling beef in stores.
Much of that work — and the profits it generates — are concentrated among the industry’s “big four” meatpackers: Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill and National Beef.
Together, these data points show that while ranchers are earning slightly more for their cattle than they were a few years ago, the biggest price increases are happening well after the animals leave the pasture.
Despite the markups between the ranch and the grocery store, demand hasn’t wavered. Americans are still buying beef more than ever.
Americans are still buying beef even as prices climb to nearly $10 a pound. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)
Beef remains the dominant player in the fresh-meat aisle, with $44.3 billion in sales over the past year, a 12% increase that outpaced chicken, pork and turkey, according to Beef Research, a contractor to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.
Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, told Fox News Digital that strong consumer demand will continue to drive beef prices higher.
“There’s nothing that forces me or you or anybody else when we go into the grocery store to pay more for beef. People are choosing to,” he said. “The consumer desire for beef is strong and, regardless of the supply-side situation, that has the effect of pulling prices up.”
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Illegal immigrant wanted for brutal bathtub murder arrested in Texas after crossing southern border again
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U.S. Marshals Fugitive Task Force in Texas on Monday arrested a wanted Mexican national accused of viciously murdering a woman years after he was deported.
Hernan Perez Juarez, also known as “Patricio Perez,” 41, is charged with murder in connection to the May 8, 2020, killing of a woman who was found dead in her Georgetown, Texas, bathtub with a deep cut in her lower abdomen.
According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Perez Juarez was deported in 2018 for an immigration violation and had no legal status in the U.S.
U.S. Marshals arrest Hernan Perez Juarez. (U.S. Marshals)
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He allegedly reentered the country before the crime, and authorities later found his vehicle abandoned in Laredo, near the international border of Mexico, according to the U.S. Marshals.
In March 2022, the Georgetown Police Department (GPD) obtained an arrest warrant for Perez Juarez, though the case stalled due to his unknown whereabouts.
Hernan Perez Juarez was photographed in 2018 before disappearing. (U.S. Marshals)
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Earlier this month, an Austin-based task force learned Perez Juarez returned to the U.S. illegally, according to the U.S. Marshals.
He was arrested in Temple, Texas on Monday and taken to the Williamson County Jail awaiting further judicial proceedings.
It is unclear when Perez Juarez allegedly reentered the country. (John Moore/Getty Images)
ICE has filed an immigration detainer on Perez Juarez following the judicial process in Williamson County, according to the U.S. Marshals.
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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
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Texas father dies in accidental shooting on hunting trip, daughter says family is ‘heartbroken’
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A Texas family is mourning the sudden loss of a husband and father who, according to state officials, accidentally shot and killed himself during a weekend hunting trip.
Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) game wardens responded just after midnight Saturday to a hunting accident in northeast Texas that claimed the life of Jose Ramirez, 45, of Grapevine, the agency said.
Ramirez, a father of three, was identified in a GoFundMe campaign created by one of his daughters.
“My father, Jose Ramirez, passed away unexpectedly, and our family is heartbroken. My dad meant the world to me,” the GoFundMe reads.
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Jose Ramirez, 45, died on Saturday after he was accidentally shot while removing his gun from a vehicle during a hunting trip in northeast Texas. (GoFundMe)
Ramirez was removing his firearm from a vehicle when it discharged, local outlet KLTV reported, citing TPWD. Life-saving measures were unsuccessful.
His daughter described him as “the pillar of our home, the provider for our family, and the one who always made sure we were taken care of.” She added that the “light of his life” was his infant granddaughter.
“He taught me the most important lessons in life — to never give up, to work hard for what you want, and to always do what makes you happy, no matter how small it may seem,” she wrote of her father. “He believed that true success comes from loving what you do and living with a happy heart.”
Jose Ramirez, 45, leaves behind his wife, three children and one grandchild. (GoFundMe)
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Ramirez grew up in Grapevine and was active in the community, working at many restaurants in the Dallas suburb over the years, according to the Facebook page “Grapevine Edit.”
“Most recently, he worked at Son of a Butcher, Silver Lake Marina’s Rockin’ S Express Bar & Grill, and spent over a decade at Kirby’s Steakhouse,” the page wrote in a post honoring Ramirez’s life. “His family wants the community to know of his passing because they know how many coworkers, customers, and locals cared about him and would want to know.”
The TPWD said game wardens are trained to investigate hunting-related incidents, but “always wish a tragedy like this could have been avoided.”
The agency encouraged all hunters to “take safety seriously” and added a few reminders for handling firearms in a Facebook post.
The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department urged hunters to “take safety seriously” in the wake of Jose Ramirez’s death, adding that all firearms should be handled as if they are loaded. (iStock)
“Always handle all firearms as if they are loaded, keep muzzles pointed in a safe direction and take time to unload your firearm before placing or removing it from a vehicle,” the agency wrote before extending condolences to Ramirez’s loved ones.
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Texas’ general rifle season for white-tail deer began on Nov. 1 and ends on different dates in January depending on the location.
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Holiday crime fears grow as ‘jugging’ thieves target shoppers carrying cash and gifts: ‘Only a matter of time’
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Authorities throughout the country are warning shoppers to remain vigilant ahead of their holiday errands as thieves are turning to a popular crime trend to make off with quick cash.
The trend – nicknamed “jugging” – involves criminals following victims from ATMs, banks or stores in an effort to steal their cash or new purchases, according to the FBI. Law enforcement officers typically see a rise in incidents around the holiday season, with shoppers often walking around with large sums of cash or high-cost gifts.
“Jugging is just, in my opinion, a slang term for crimes of opportunity,” retired NYPD officer Bill Stanton told Fox News Digital. “Think of predators, where there are crocodiles or water creatures that hang out by the watering hole, right? And in this case, it’s an ATM or an ATM-type machine.”
Numerous instances of individuals falling victim to the trend have made national headlines, with the most recent incident striking a Texas man earlier this month.
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Surveillance video shows the moment two men allegedly broke the windows of an empty pickup truck and stole a cash envelope after following the victim from an ATM to a gas station in Houston, Texas, on April 28, 2025. (Houston Police Department)
On Nov. 10, a 70-year-old man was robbed at gunpoint as he was visiting an ATM in a Walmart parking lot in Houston, according to FOX26.
Police said the suspect forced the victim to withdraw cash from the machine, then shot the man after he handed over the money. The unnamed man was transported to a local hospital, where he remains in critical condition.
A similar incident unfolded on April 29, when police say a Houston man was followed from a Wells Fargo Bank ATM to a car wash, where an unidentified male suspect brandished a firearm in an attempt to rob the victim, according to the Houston Police Department. The suspect then fled the area on foot, before entering a white SUV and driving off, police said.
One day earlier, a man was followed from a Chase Bank in Houston, where surveillance video captured two suspects pulling up next to his vehicle on each side while the man entered a gas station convenience store, according to police. Video then captured the two suspects – who are believed to be the same individuals involved in the robbery on the following day – breaking both front windows of the victim’s vehicle before removing a cash envelope from the center console.
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Johnny Juwan Clark pleaded guilty earlier this year to the “jugging” robbery of an ATM technician in Houston, Texas, on July 3, 2024. Surveillance video captured Clark forcing the technician to the ground while two codefendants allegedly stole nearly $250,000 in cash from the machine, according to the Department of Justice. (The Department of Justice)
Earlier this year, a Houston man was sentenced to 120 months in federal prison after he pleaded guilty to the “jugging” robbery of an ATM technician, according to the Department of Justice.
According to prosecutors, 33-year-old Johnny Juwan Clark was out on supervised release for a separate robbery incident when he, along with three others, forced an ATM technician to the ground and forcibly removed hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash from the machine in Midlothian, Texas.
The group was working within a Houston-based criminal organization called the “Hiram Clarke Money Team” when Clark admitted following the technician to multiple stops, before approaching the victim from behind and forcing him to the ground in front of a Chase Bank ATM, according to the DOJ.
Clark kept his fist to the back of the technician’s head as two alleged accomplices stole approximately $248,000 in cash from the machine, prosecutors said. The group then allegedly fled the scene and met at a nearby apartment complex, where the stolen money was loaded into the back of a Range Rover and driven back to Houston.
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Johnny Juwan Clark pleaded guilty earlier this year to stealing nearly $250,000 from an ATM in Houston, Texas on July 3, 2024, according to the Department of Justice. (The Department of Justice)
Once the cash was transported, Clark and another codefendant used a portion of the money to purchase an S-Class Mercedes-Benz and jewelry, according to prosecutors.
Clark’s attorney and the Houston Police Department did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
“It’s more of a want issue,” Stanton said. “And if the economy isn’t going in their favor, it’s more of a motivating factor – that, and the holidays.”
According to Stanton, criminals often seek out victims that look as though they are not paying attention to their surroundings when in a public place.
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“If you give the impression that you are prey, that you are lunch or dinner by way of giving up your money, it’s only a matter of time,” Stanton told Fox News Digital. “It’s not a matter of if, but when. Just because it’s never happened before, doesn’t mean that you’re untouchable – it means that you’re lucky.”
Stanton urges shoppers to take precautionary measures to protect themselves, especially during the holiday season.
He, along with the FBI, suggest shoppers should look around for anyone who may appear suspicious before approaching an ATM or exiting their vehicle in a parking lot.
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Additionally, the FBI urges individuals to vary their banking habits and stay away from a traceable routine, while also concealing their cash when leaving an ATM or store.
“Don’t make it easy for them,” Stanton said. “Take the money, put it deep in your pocket and go right to the car. Don’t be fanning the money, counting it out while you’re on the phone.”
Stanton also implores shoppers who may find themselves in a dangerous situation to simply hand over the money if they are approached by a criminal.
“If you’re in the middle of it, give it up,” he said. “Whether the money is from the ATM, that can be replaced – not your life. Toss the money and run the other way if you’re able to.”
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As Americans are taking to the stores to get a jump start on their holiday shopping, Stanton urges buyers to keep personal safety at the forefront of their minds as they buy their gifts for the season.
“While you’re doing your holiday shopping, so are the bad guys,” Stanton said. “While you’re looking for that deal or to buy that expensive item, they’re watching you and are like, ‘Oh, I like that person’s taste. That’s what their gift is, and it’s going to be my possession.’ You know, put that in your mind, and it makes you a little bit more aware.”
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