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Can Putin, under sanctions and an arrest warrant, enter the EU?

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Can Putin, under sanctions and an arrest warrant, enter the EU?

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Vladimir Putin is coming to Budapest. At least, that is what the invitation says.

After a lengthy phone call with Donald Trump on Thursday, the leaders of the United States and Russia tentatively agreed to meet in the EU and NATO capital sometime in the near future to discuss a possible end to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Whether that tête-à-tête happens is still unclear, but the news itself sent shockwaves across capitals, as the trip could mark Putin’s first intrusion into the European Union’s territory since early 2020 and further undercut the Western effort to isolate him.

But beyond the geopolitics driving the initiative, and the complex logistics that go into setting up a summit of this magnitude and consequence, one basic question emerges: Can Putin actually enter the European Union?

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There are at least two different dimensions to consider.

The EU sanctions

Immediately after Russian troops broke through Ukraine’s borders and marched to Kyiv, the EU rushed to apply a variety of sanctions to weaken the Kremlin’s war machine.

Among the plethora of decisions, member states sanctioned hundreds of high-level Russian officials responsible for planning and overseeing the invasion. The blacklist entailed a prohibition on travel to the bloc and the freezing of personal assets.

Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, were also targeted, but with a caveat: only their assets were frozen, a symbolic measure given the obscurity around Putin’s wealth. A travel ban was not introduced to maintain a minimum of diplomatic contacts.

According to then-High Representative Josep Borrell, Putin was the third world leader to be personally sanctioned by the bloc, following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

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This means that, on that front, Putin would be allowed to land in Hungary.

However, there is an additional obstacle: the EU has effectively closed its airspace to Russian planes as part of its sweeping sanctions regime.

According to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the flight prohibition applies to aircraft operated by a Russian air carrier, registered in Russia and owned or chartered by any Russian person or entity, as well as to “non-scheduled” flights that can transport Russian citizens to business meetings or holiday destinations in the EU.

There are several exceptions to the rules, such as emergency landings or humanitarian purposes. Additionally, member states may grant case-by-case derogations.

Last year, Sergei Lavrov travelled to Malta for a meeting of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) that proved highly controversial. The minister was forced to undertake a seven-hour detour to avoid European airspace until he arrived on the island, which permitted him to land due to diplomatic reasons.

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By contrast, his spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, who is under a travel ban and an asset freeze, was denied an exemption after several capitals raised objections.

Putin could have two options: either he embarks on a long-winded detour to enter Hungary through the EU candidates in the Western Balkans, or he secures derogations from the EU members along the shorter route: Poland, which could prove tricky, and Slovakia, which would likely be easy.

Another option could entail flying through the Black Sea and Romania, a staunch ally of Kyiv that hosts a multinational NATO contingent.

The European Commission, which oversees the implementation of sanctions, has welcomed “any steps that lead to a just and lasting peace for Ukraine” while refraining from committing to facilitating the prospective summit.

It remains to be seen what levers Trump will exert to ensure the meeting goes ahead and whether this aspect had already been settled when the Budapest option was discussed between the American and Russian presidents.

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Putin stepping on European soil again will, by itself, score a victory for the Russian leader after years of isolation and mark a daunting moment for the bloc as its leaders watch on as the Russian and American presidents meet in an EU member that has consistently tried to derail collective support for Ukraine.

But refusing Putin’s travel to Budapest risks being exploited by the Kremlin to underline its narrative that it is the EU itself that seeks confrontation with Russia instead of peace. Kyiv’s position on the summit may help influence the resolution of this controversy.

The ICC arrest warrant

Besides EU sanctions, which are directly enforceable, Putin is under an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC), based in The Hague.

Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Children’s Rights Commissioner, are accused of being responsible for the deportation and transfer of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied areas to Russia, which constitutes a war crime.

Neither Russia nor the US is a party to the ICC and therefore does not recognise its jurisdiction. (The Kremlin has issued a warrant for the court’s general prosecutor.)

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Meanwhile, all EU countries have signed up to the Rome Statute and are, by default, expected to aid in its global fight against impunity.

Earlier this year, Hungary became the first member of the bloc to announce its intention to withdraw from the court in response to the arrest warrant placed on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which Hungary, like the US, had contested.

The decision was made public shortly after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán received Netanyahu in Budapest and openly flouted the obligation to detain him.

But Hungary’s withdrawal will not take effect until June 2026, one year after it filed the notification. In the interim period, the country remains bound by the tribunal.

“A withdrawal does not impact ongoing proceedings or any matter which was already under consideration by the Court prior to the date on which the withdrawal became effective,” an ICC spokesperson told Euronews.

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“When states have concerns in cooperating with the Court, they may consult the Court in a timely and efficient manner. However, it is not for states to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court’s legal decisions.”

Critically, the ICC lacks the means to enforce its warrants: it relies exclusively on the goodwill of individual governments. Last year, Mongolia, a party to the ICC, faced European recriminations after it hosted Putin for a state visit without any consequences.

A similar scenario unfolded when Orbán welcomed Netanyahu in April.

“If Putin lands (in Budapest), the arrest should be the logical consequence,” said a senior EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“Nobody will be surprised if the Hungarians don’t arrest Putin. It’s not the first time that Hungary violates its (ICC) obligations. So yes, it’s problematic.”

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The ICC often runs into the obstacle of diplomatic immunity.

On the one hand, Article 27 of the Rome Statute says the rules apply to all persons “without any distinction based on official capacity”, including heads of state and government. On the other hand, Article 98 says that countries “may not proceed” with a warrant if it breaches their obligation to respect the immunity of a non-party state.

“If a country’s domestic laws say that they cannot arrest a head of state, that a head of state has immunity, then arguably that applies,” Mahmoud Abuwasel, Vice-President of the Hague Institute for International Justice, told Euronews in April.

“However, it’s not up to that particular state to make that determination on its own. It has to consult with the ICC (and) the ICC may find that immunity does not apply for whatever reason.”

France, while defending the tribunal, said it cannot arrest Netanyahu because Israel has never signed up to the Rome Statute. Hungary could now invoke a similar argument. In fact, the country has already promised safe passage for Putin.

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‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty

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‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
  • Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
  • Treaty expires on February 5
  • Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
  • China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.

“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”

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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.

“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.

A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer, opens new tab made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.

The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.

New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.

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Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.

Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.

“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”

“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.

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A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.

New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.

Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese

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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.

As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.

“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.

“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.

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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)

Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.

“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”

“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.

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“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”

Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.

“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.

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Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)

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As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.

“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.

Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.

Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.

The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.

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FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY

Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)

Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”

Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.

Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.

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“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.

“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”

Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.

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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.

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As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.

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Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate

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Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate

US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.

United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.

On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.

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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”

The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.

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Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.

The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.

Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.

The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.

“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.

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Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.

The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.

Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.

“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.

“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”

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Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.

The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.

On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.

Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.

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But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.

“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”

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