Connect with us

Business

Should You Get a Heat Pump? Take Our 2-Question Quiz.

Published

on

Should You Get a Heat Pump? Take Our 2-Question Quiz.

Air source heat pumps are made up of an outside unit and an inside unit. They can also be hooked up to ducts, like a furnace.

Advertisement

Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US (METUS)

Heat pumps are the future of home heating. They’re essentially two-way air-conditioners that use electricity to heat in the winter — as well as cool in the summer — and are typically far more efficient than other systems. They reduce household greenhouse gas emissions significantly.

Advertisement

They may also save you money on your monthly bills if you own a home. Answer just two questions below and we’ll give you a rough estimate:

Advertisement

What do you heat with currently?

Where do you live?

Answer the two questions and we’ll see how much you can save. Or, keep reading.

Advertisement

Don’t know what a heat pump is? You may already have seen one. It looks a lot like a typical air-conditioner, with a big box that sits just outside a house; inside, you might see small boxes mounted to the wall, or a single large indoor unit, out of sight, connected to vents.

In winter, heat pumps transfer heat from outside to inside. (Even in very cold temperatures, it’s still possible to extract heat from the air outside.) In summer, they do the opposite.

Advertisement

Because of how efficiently they do this, heat pumps are a critical piece of the green energy transition: One estimate suggests putting a heat pump in every home could reduce U.S. emissions by 5 to 9 percent.

They’re expensive to install but often qualify for subsidies. And they can save some homeowners hundreds or thousands of dollars each year by lowering their utility bills, for both heating and cooling.

But that’s not yet true for everyone, everywhere.

Advertisement

Share of households that would…

Advertisement

These numbers, and the information in the quiz above, come from a New York Times analysis that combines data on fuel and electricity costs around the country with estimates of how much energy it takes to heat many different kinds of houses, from research done by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

More than 80 percent of U.S. households would probably see their bills go down if they installed a heat pump.

Advertisement

But the rest would probably end up with higher bills — mostly people who use natural gas right now, given its low cost.

Nearly all households heating with propane, fuel oil or older electric forms of heating would save money by switching to a heat pump, but only about two-thirds of those currently on natural gas would.

How you currently heat is one major factor in your potential savings; the others are where you live and how the cost of electricity compares with other fuels in your area.

Advertisement

For households that currently heat with expensive fuels like propane and fuel oil, a heat pump is almost always a good bet. This is why Maine, which relies on fuel oil, has become a big adopter.

Advertisement

Median annual change in all utility bills represented. Uses 2023 state-level fuel prices. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock and EIA data.

And a heat pump is significantly more efficient than electric furnaces or baseboards. The savings are biggest in the parts of the country that stay colder, longer. But there’s money to be saved in the South, too, in both the mild winters and the hot summers: South Carolina and Florida have some of the current highest rates of heat pump usage.

Advertisement

Median annual change in all utility bills represented. Uses 2023 state-level fuel prices. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock and E.I.A. data.

Advertisement

For households that currently heat with less expensive natural gas, however, the financial picture is much more mixed. Whether you save — or lose — depends heavily on your geography. And the savings are often smaller.

Advertisement

Median annual change in all utility bills represented. Uses 2023 state-level fuel prices. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock and EIA data.

In the South, electricity is relatively cheap, and temperatures are mild. That makes switching from natural gas to a heat pump an easier sell. Modern heat pumps work in very cold temperatures, but they operate at their highest efficiency during mild weather.

In colder parts of the country, heat pumps are somewhat less efficient. They also give you central cooling, which can raise prices in the summer if you relied on fans before.

Advertisement

But the biggest problem in the North isn’t the weather — it’s the difference between the cost of electricity and the cost of gas.

On average, a heat pump is three to four times as efficient as a natural gas furnace. That means if electricity is only twice as expensive as natural gas for the same amount of energy, a heat pump is a good deal — as is the case in Georgia. But when electricity is five times as expensive as gas, as in Michigan, it’s a much harder sell.

Advertisement

Ratio of electricity to natural gas cost, for the same amount of energy

Advertisement

Compares approximate cost per equivalent unit of energy, after accounting for fixed monthly charges. 2023 prices. Source: NYT analysis of Energy Information Administration data

These are just averages, and other factors will influence your actual financial picture. For one, prices for both electricity and gas vary a lot within states. Rates in some places can also change depending on the time of day or the season, and some utilities offer lower rates specifically for heat pump customers. We also can’t know exactly how prices will rise or fall next year — we can only make guesses based on previous years’ costs.

Advertisement

Your choice should also take into account how well insulated your house is; whether you have solar panels; the efficiency level of the heat pump you’re considering; and whether you keep your boiler or furnace as a backup in colder temperatures, known as a “dual fuel” setup. Many households even in colder parts of the country, with high electricity costs, could still see savings from a heat pump. These are all things our calculations can’t help you with. The only way to be certain is to ask a contractor. (Ideally more than one.)

How long you’re going to stay in your house is important too: Heat pumps have high upfront costs, sometimes twice as much as that of a new gas furnace. Many states and utilities offer rebates to help: Massachusetts homeowners can get $10,000. (Republicans in Congress ended a federal tax credit that gave $2,000 or more toward a heat pump installation, though heat pumps installed this year still qualify.)

Advertisement

And if you already have central air for cooling, a heat pump is more likely to make financial sense. Installing one may be more expensive than replacing your furnace — or your central air-conditioning — but it can be cheaper than replacing both.

Despite their price tags, heat pumps have outsold furnaces for three years running, according to data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.

Advertisement

Heating units sold in the U.S.

Meanwhile, summers are getting hotter. If you don’t have central air yet, you might want it at some point.

Advertisement

And if you’re thinking about climate change in addition to your finances, switching to a heat pump will cut most houses’ carbon emissions significantly.

Advertisement

Median household emissions reduction from installing a heat pump

Advertisement

Uses NREL’s mid-case emissions scenario. Reduction includes CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock data.

In some very cold places, the emission reductions are huge: The median house in Minnesota could emit around five fewer tons of carbon each year by switching to a high-efficiency heat pump, according to modeled data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. That’s a greater reduction than if you went car-free for a year (if you drive a gas car). And it’s around one-third of the average U.S. resident’s greenhouse gas emissions in a year.

Paradoxically, some of the places where a heat pump could slash emissions the most — including parts of the Northeast and Midwest — are the places where it could be a financial detriment right now. Still, for some, paying a little extra to reduce their carbon footprint might be worth it.

Advertisement

Advertisement

About the data

Cost calculations use a 2024 dataset from ResStock, a model of the U.S. housing stock by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). ResStock contains estimates of the amount of energy it would take to heat and cool houses with an original heating source and with a heat pump. Houses that currently have a heat pump were excluded.

Advertisement

The dataset includes homes that did not have central cooling before the heat pump, which raises costs after the transition. It also relies on weather data collected from 1991 to 2005.

For electricity and natural gas prices, the Upshot used 2023 state-level sales, revenue and customer data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and prior NREL research to calculate the cost per unit of energy. For propane and heating oil, the Upshot used EIA data from 2023 on state-by-state prices, or a national average if data was missing.

The Upshot assigned a basic Energy Star heat pump (SEER2 15.2, HSPF2 7.8) to houses in warmer climates and a higher-efficiency cold climate heat pump (SEER2 19, HSP2 9.8) to colder areas. Both have supplemental electric heating.

Advertisement

For county-level results, the Upshot used county-only data when there were at least 50 houses using that fuel in that county, and state-level medians when there were fewer.

Business

Video: How ICE Is Pushing Tech Companies to Identify Protesters

Published

on

Video: How ICE Is Pushing Tech Companies to Identify Protesters

new video loaded: How ICE Is Pushing Tech Companies to Identify Protesters

The DHS is flooding social media companies with administrative subpoenas to identify accounts that are protesting ICE. Social media companies have pushed back but are largely complying. Our tech reporter, Sheera Frenkel, explains.

By Sheera Frenkel, Christina Thornell, Valentina Caval, Thomas Vollkommer, Jon Hazell and June Kim

February 14, 2026

Continue Reading

Business

Trump immigration sweeps upended L.A.’s economy, with some businesses losing big

Published

on

Trump immigration sweeps upended L.A.’s economy, with some businesses losing big

The first month of President Trump’s immigration crackdown in Los Angeles put a dent in the area’s economy, costing business owners millions in lost revenue and exponentially more in lost output from workers, according to a new county report.

The survey found that 82% of businesses reported negative impacts from the raids that began early last June and 44% reported losses of greater than half their normal revenue. More than two-thirds of respondents said they had changed operations, such as by reducing hours and delaying expansion plans. Some said they had to close temporarily or had difficulty obtaining supplies and services from usual vendors.

The report was prepared jointly with the L.A. County Department of Economic Opportunity; researchers from a nonprofit group called the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation conducted an online survey of hundreds of local businesses.

The survey is the latest evidence that the raids upended parts of the Los Angeles economy as some residents here illegally went underground and employers lost workers amid the arrests. It’s clear the immigration action hit some areas and sectors of the economy harder than others. Some communities were largely unaffected. But in immigrant communities such as downtown L.A., Boyle Heights and Santa Ana, merchants have reported impacts.

Advertisement

The report said some sectors, such as restaurants, construction and retail, would be particularly hard hit. But the authors said both employers and employees found innovative ways to keep going.

“How these businesses are adapting, it’s really a testament to their resilience,” said Justin L. Adams, a senior economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation.

According to the report, released this week, undocumented workers contribute an estimated $253.9 billion in total economic output, equivalent to 17% of L.A. County’s gross domestic product. These undocumented workers support over 1.06 million jobs and generate $80.4 billion in labor income across a range of industries, including construction, manufacturing, retail, and services, the report said.

But when masked agents with the Department of Homeland Security started roaming the Southland, targeting immigrants for deportation and arresting the activists and American citizens who followed them on their missions, businesses suffered as workers in the county’s underground economy went into hiding.

In the first week of June alone, when the raids began in earnest and the National Guard was deployed into the city with active-duty Marines, researchers estimated that the nightly curfew downtown resulted in an estimated $840 million in economic output losses, according to the report.

Advertisement

An analysis of L.A. Metro data, according to the report, showed that bus ridership on high-vulnerability transit lines around that time declined about 17,000 monthly riders compared with baseline levels.

“The out-of-control ICE raids are doing senseless and catastrophic harm to our country, and we are seeing the toll,” L.A. County Supervisor Janice Hahn, who lobbied to commission the report alongside Supervisor Hilda L. Solis, said in a statement.

Adams, one of the authors of the report, said researchers partnered with the USC Equity Research Institute to create an updated, current estimate of undocumented workers in L.A. County, finding it to be about 948,700.

With the county’s overall population at roughly 10 million, undocumented residents represent nearly 1 in 10 people, Adams noted.

“It’s pretty sizable,” he said. “They are going to have a large economic impact on the county.”

Advertisement

That businesses in the area have been hurt by raid-related disruptions is not necessarily surprising, Adams said, but the report “reinforced and helped quantify that.”

He continued, “It’s not straightforward to do, because this is essentially trying to measure a big portion of the shadow economy.”

About 311 people responded to the survey, but not everyone fully identified themselves, their business or its location, possibly out of concern for future immigration raids, Adams said.

Across some 178 interviews, business owners described seeing significant changes among consumers, including reduced spending and customers avoiding certain areas of the county altogether. Employees expressed fear about coming to work, productivity fell due to worker anxiety, and businesses faced difficulty finding replacement workers, the report said.

Owners described additional costs such as banking expenses for loans to cover lost revenue, more advertising and marketing to attract more business, boosted wages to attract replacement workers, and legal expenses to support detained workers. One business owner said she picked up a side job in order to keep her workers employed, while others had added expenses such as lunch deliveries or gas cards to help employees avoid open areas and public transportation.

Advertisement

For small-business owners, even small fluctuations in revenue can have ripple effects, affecting their ability to pay rent and vendors.

Ben Johnston, chief operating officer of Kapitus, a firm offering financing to small businesses, wrote in a memo describing expected trends in 2026 that he expects costs to continue to rise for the restaurant industry in particular, which already struggles with thin profit margins and relies heavily on immigrant labor.

“The crackdown on undocumented immigration weighs on the industry, further reducing margins for restaurants who are trying to keep menu prices as affordable as possible,” Johnston said.

The L.A. County report echoes findings by UC Merced researchers based on U.S. census survey data that found that the week after the raids began in June, the number of people reporting private sector employment in California decreased by 3.1% — an employment downturn matched in modern history only by the COVID-19 lockdowns.

Statewide, undocumented workers generate nearly 5% of California’s gross domestic product through their wages earned and the goods and services they help produce alone, according to a report last year from the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. That rises to 9% when additional business activity and other benefits of their labor are added.

Advertisement

With 2.28 million undocumented immigrants living in California, they represent 8% of workers in the state, with nearly two-thirds having lived in the state for over a decade. Their total contribution in local, state and federal taxes is $23 billion annually, according to the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

In L.A. County, officials have sought to stem the bleeding from the immigration sweeps by launching a fund to deliver financial relief to small businesses. As of December, some 367 businesses have been awarded more than $1.53 million in grants. The county has also expanded potential paid hours for youth who have become primary earners for their families due to immigration enforcement and sought to connect these youth to employment opportunities.

Continue Reading

Business

Video: Can You Rely on A.I. to Translate Love?

Published

on

Video: Can You Rely on A.I. to Translate Love?

new video loaded: Can You Rely on A.I. to Translate Love?

A.I. translation has become a huge industry, but how accurate is it? Our tech reporter, Kashmir Hill, explores its successes and failures through a couple who relies on of A.I. translation to communicate.

By Kashmir Hill, Gilad Thaler, Kassie Bracken, Jon Miller, Jon Hazell and Joey Sendaydiego

February 14, 2026

Continue Reading

Trending