Nevada
Carson City lowers expectations for Nevada revenue projection report
CARSON CITY — Nevada lawmakers are anxiously awaiting a May 1 forecast of how much money the state will have to fund services and new programs for its next two-year budget cycle.
There is already a consensus that revenues will fall below predictions used to create the state budget. But just how far below is a question being raised in budget hearings, in hallway conversations and at press conferences in the days leading up to Thursday’s Economic Forum.
Assembly Minority Floor Leader Gregory Hafen, R-Pahrump, said expectations were “already bad” during a Monday meeting of the joint Assembly Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees.
“Heaven forbid the Economic Forum come back much worse than most of us are projecting it to be,” he said.
$12.4 billion question
The Economic Forum is a panel of experts who forecast the state’s general fund revenues, including the sales and use tax, gaming percentage fee, live entertainment tax, commerce tax, modified business tax and real property transfer tax. Its most recent forecast from December was used by Gov. Joe Lombardo’s staff to craft Lombardo’s proposed budget for the 2026-2027 biennium.
That forecast predicted the state could count on $12.4 billion in revenue during the next two-year budget cycle, about 3.4 percent more than it is expected to receive over the entire the 2024-2025 biennium.
The state’s economic outlook has changed since then, and expectations of lowered revenue are already playing out.
Alexander Marks, deputy executive director of field and communications for the Nevada State Education Association, said the education lobbying group can see the economy’s impact in the governor’s recommended per-pupil spending increase of only $2 in the 2026 fiscal year and $70 for the 2027 fiscal year.
“Why does it appear that way? I mean, I hate to just say vibes, but I mean, certainly the comments that are being made by some of them, the budget meetings,” Marks said. “The $2 per pupil budget increase – it’s like, if we had the money, (Gov. Joe Lombardo would) be offering more.”
Uncertainty driving the conversation
The source of many of the concerns is far outside of lawmakers’ control, including trade tensions that has led to a softening of international travel and increased uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy.
“We know our economy is deeply reliant on tourism,” said Sen. Rochelle Nguyen, D-Las Vegas, at a Wednesday press conference in Carson City. “When trade wars disrupt the global economy, it directly impacts disposable income of tourists, both domestic and international.”
Efforts to pare back the federal government’s $1.3 trillion budget deficit could have an outsized impact on the 28 percent of the Silver State’s budget that comes from the U.S. taxpayers. Most of that money supports the Department of Health and Human Services, which manages the state- and federally-funded Medicaid program, which provides coverage to some 822,000 Nevadans, according to a report from the nonpartisan Kenny Guinn Center for Policy Priorities.
Marks said his group is advocating for changes suggested by the Commission on School Funding, including changes to the state’s property tax structure by resetting depreciation to capture more property taxes, as described in Assembly Joint Resolution 1, but it’s a long-term fix; that reform would require the approval of the legislature, governor twice before being put before voters in 2028.
Bracing for bad news
A Wednesday meeting gave some insight into what to expect from the next Economic Forum report.
Fiscal analysts gave the Technical Advisory Committee on Future State Revenues a preview on non-major revenue sources. The discussion on smaller taxes, including the liquor tax, gaming penalties and the “transportation network tax” on rideshares and cabs, suggested a slowing economy would affect the state’s revenue sources.
“All of the forecasters did reduce their forecasts to some degree because of expectations of softening of tourism and the year-to-date actuals not coming in as predicted to this point,” Michael Nakamoto, a fiscal analyst in the Legislative Counsel Bureau, said during the meeting.
Forecasters projected a $16 million drop in non-major revenue sources each budget year compared with the previous economic forum report. They also reported a $102 million reduction in general fund revenue in the first nine months of the 2025 fiscal year compared with the same period in 2024, which Nakamoto said was skewed by revenue collected when Las Vegas hosted the Super Bowl.
“If they are visitors, or would-be visitors to Nevada, they might be rethinking it for any number of reasons,” he said when talking about the nearly 11 percent decline in liquor tax revenue projected for the 2025 fiscal year. “Or if they live here, they might be foregoing buying alcohol because they need to buy something else.
“And that’s kind of one of the uncertainties, and it’s the great unknowns that we’re sitting and looking at, and it’s honestly one of the things that keeps me up at night as a forecaster.”
Contact McKenna Ross at mross@reviewjournal.com. Follow @mckenna_ross_ on X.
Lori Wisniewski lost her Nevada City home in a fire last year and has been living in a 150-square-foot tiny home while she waits for her house to be rebuilt.
It’s being rebuilt at little to no cost to her, thanks to her community stepping up to help.
“I had to jump off the deck, and I thought the dogs would be coming out too, and they didn’t, so that’s very sad,” she said, recounting the day of the fire on January 27, 2025.
Wisniewski lost her pets and home after an accident with her wood-burning stove. She says she wasn’t sure how to move forward without proper insurance and navigating the process without her husband, who died from cancer.
“In First James, it talks about serving widows and orphans as being true religion. So when I saw Lori’s story come across my path, I knew that was an opportunity to put my money where my mouth is with my faith,” said Matthew Sutherlin, CEO of Green Bee Construction.
Sutherlin is spearheading the rebuild of Wisniewski’s home with the help of donated time, labor and materials from other local tradespeople and businesses.
“Who am I to have a designer? And part of me, too, is when I have to choose everything, I always try to go for the least expensive item or tile or front door,” she said.
“Everybody has been shaving things off and donating things and getting reduced costs all the way across the board. That’s what has made it possible for this project to have worked,” said Sutherlin.
It’s been all hands on deck during the last year.
Wisniewski was excited to show us the inside of the house and what’s to come. As a former post-surgical nurse, she even decided an accessible room would be a nice touch for friends or anyone who lent a hand.
“If somebody has to recover or needs a few days to get around after a surgery, they can come and stay in here,” she said.
The builders say the weather has been posing a challenge, especially coupled with hazardous materials leftover from the fire. But they’re getting through it together.
“Every person has stepped up to offer their help. The timing with all the different processes has worked out in our favor. I really believe the whole thing has a blessing on it, really,” said Sutherlin.
Builders expect to be finished with the house in late spring or early summer.
“This community, a lot of them have seen your reports. At Grocery Outlet, ‘oh, you’re the one whose house burned down,’ and I always go into the most important thing about this is what people from the community are doing for this purpose or cause. I sometimes wonder why me? Why am I getting this opportunity? So that’s where I am today,” said Wisniewski.
LAS VEGAS (FOX5) — Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford is set to hold a press conference to discuss the status of multiple lawsuits against the Trump administration.
Officials say the address will take place on Tuesday, Jan. 13. The conference will cover both the financial and nonfinancial wins regarding claims that the Trump administration has “practiced destructive overreach.”
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Top performances
Boys basketball
■ Mekhi Carter, Canyon Springs: The sophomore collected 17 points, five assists and two steals while leading the Pioneers to a 63-49 win over Tech.
■ Gian Haddock, Desert Oasis: The senior scored 23 points as the Diamondbacks outlasted Silverado for a 70-68 triple-overtime win.
■ Rylan Hearns, Arbor View: The senior finished with 28 points in the Aggies’ 71-55 win over Foothill.
■ Uzo Nwapa, The Meadows: The junior scored 18 points to help the Mustangs hold off Shadow Ridge for a 57-54 victory.
■ David Quesada, Cimarron-Memorial: The sophomore racked up 28 points and eight rebounds to lead the Spartans past Del Sol 84-49.
Girls basketball
■ Samantha Chesnut, Liberty: The senior led a balanced attack with 11 points as the Patriots rolled past Las Vegas 68-14.
■ Greta Piepkorn, Rancho: The sophomore collected 12 points and five steals while leading the Rams to a 42-34 win over Green Valley.
■ Bella Robinson, Coral Academy: The senior finished with 29 points, 14 rebounds, 13 steals and six assists in the Falcons’ 59-20 victory over Eldorado.
■ Sabrina Stewart, Del Sol: The sophomore scored 27 points and the Dragons rallied from an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Canyon Springs 62-58.
■ Nation Williams, Centennial: The senior posted 16 points in the Bulldogs’ 76-24 victory over Faith Lutheran.
Flag football
■ Amaya Mackey, Legacy: The sophomore had three interceptions to help the Longhorns secure a 19-6 victory over Moapa Valley.
■ Manahere Peters, Sloan Canyon: The junior caught 10 passes for 187 yards and three touchdowns in the Pirates’ 41-24 loss to Bishop Gorman.
■ Charli Taylor, Liberty: The freshman completed 23 of 48 passes for 384 yards and four TDs to lead the Patriots beat Green Valley 35-6.
Scores
Boys basketball
Arbor View 71, Foothill 55
Canyon Springs 63, Tech 49
Cimarron-Memorial 84, Del Sol 49
Desert Oasis 70, Silverado 68 (3OT)
Laughlin 72, Liberty Baptist 52
Losee 63, Mater East 40
Needles 86, Awaken Christian 33
Snow Canyon (Utah) 67, Virgin Valley 61
The Meadows 57, Shadow Ridge 54
Western 62, Cadence 7
Girls basketball
Amplus Academy 46, Chaparral 21
Centennial 76, Faith Lutheran 24
Coral Academy 59, Eldorado 20
Del Sol 62, Canyon Springs 58
Laughlin 41, Liberty Baptist 15
Liberty 68, Las Vegas 14
Mojave 64, Shadow Ridge 63
Rancho 42, Green Valley 34
Spring Valley 48, Doral Academy 29
Sunrise Mountain 53, Cheyenne 18
Western 29, Cadence 21
Flag football
Bishop Gorman 41, Sloan Canyon 24
Chaparral 7, Amplus Academy 6
Cimarron-Memorial 18, Clark 13
Desert Oasis 55, Cheyenne 0
Legacy 19, Moapa Valley 6
Liberty 35, Green Valley 6
Mojave 22, Basic 8
Palo Verde 13, Mater East 12
Jeff Wollard Las Vegas Review-Journal
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