Business
Fear of Trump’s Tariffs Ripples Through France’s Champagne Region
French Champagne producers do nearly a billion dollars’ worth of business with the United States every year. But on Friday in Épernay, the world capital of sparkling wine, the only number on anybody’s lips was 200.
That was the percent tariff that President Trump has threatened to impose on Champagne and other European wines and spirits exported to the United States, in a trade war that exploded this past week after the European Union countered Mr. Trump’s penalties on steel and aluminum with its own duties on American products.
The triple-digit menace landed like a thunderbolt in Épernay, rattling workers in nearby fields, producers in small villages and the venerable houses that line the Avenue de Champagne, Épernay’s central boulevard and a UNESCO Heritage site that oozes tasteful wealth.
“A 200 percent tariff is designed to make sure that no Champagne will be shipped to the United States,” said Calvin Boucher, a manager at Michel Gonet, a 225-year-old Champagne house on the avenue. With 20 to 30 percent of the 200,000 bottles it makes yearly exported to American wine merchants and restaurants, “that business would be crushed,” he said, adding that the price of a $125 Champagne would more than triple overnight.
Épernay sits in the heart of a region that produces the world’s finest bubbly. The United States is its biggest foreign market, with 27 million bottles shipped there in 2023, valued at around 810 million euros ($885 million).
Chardonnay, Pinot Noir and Meunier grapes blanket the rolling hills and deep valleys of Champagne, which covers more than 130 square miles, from the city of Reims to the Aube river. The area is under France’s strict Appellation d’Origine system, which ensures that only the sparkling wine made here, using specific methods, can legally be called Champagne.
With more than 4,000 independent winemakers and 360 Champagne houses, the region produces around 300 million bottles annually, with one billion more resting in cellars. The biggest houses — including Dom Pérignon, Veuve Clicquot and Moët & Chandon, owned by the luxury conglomerate LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton — dominate production and exports and account for a third of total sales.
But such figures were of little comfort in the wake of Mr. Trump’s threat. Just off the Avenue de Champagne, Nathalie Doucet, the president of Besserat de Bellefon, a specialty Champagne house that exports 10 percent of its premium production to the United States, said that the trade war made her anxious.
“We are waiting to see what happens, but it’s not good news,” said Ms. Doucet, whose Champagne is made with a laborious low-pressure process that gives it a crisp acidity and fine effervescence.
Champagne already had a tough year with bad weather that had reduced the harvest. Consumption has declined as young people shifted habits and switched to cocktails and artisanal beer. Champagne sales have thinned since the pandemic, falling 9 percent last year.
At the same time, she said, Europe was grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza. And now the trade war with the United States, one of France’s traditional allies, over issues that have nothing to do with Champagne, has made her feel like collateral damage.
“It seems like a deliberate punishment,” said Cyril Depart, the owner of the Salvatori wine shop, just off the avenue, which offers a wide variety of artisanal Champagnes. His wife was an export manager for one of the big Champagne houses and had already been crunching numbers on the potential impact.
Leah Razzouki, an Épernay resident whose family has worked in the Champagne business for generations, said she was infuriated. “Many of our friends are small producers and they would be hit very hard,” she said.
The damage of a trade war would spread far beyond Champagne’s regal houses, hitting American importers and distributors and putting numerous small businesses at risk.
Michael Reiss, the president of Vineyard Road, a small distributor in Framingham, Mass., that imports Champagne and wines from Europe and distributes them in New England, said that small businesses like his, including restaurants and retail shops, would be “very hurt.” The unpredictable trade environment could force businesses to cancel planned investments, he added.
Adding to the pain, tariffs applied at the beginning of the supply chain can multiply, as each business handling the product marks it up accordingly, Mr. Reiss said. “So even a 25 percent tariff can easily lead to a 40 to 60 percent increase in prices,” he said.
A 200 percent tariff “would eliminate the possibility of people buying things that bring them joy in their lives,” he added.
Even inside the Champagne Museum bordering the avenue in Épernay, the chatter strayed to Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Sacha Raynaud, whose family owns a small Champagne house, had brought a friend to learn the history of Champagne, which first appeared in the 17th century on the tables of royalty, giving the drink its nickname, “the king of wines.”
“French people are waking up to what’s happening in the United States, and starting to speak about boycotting American products,” she said.
Similar worries circulated in the fields. Working in a buttery morning light, a dozen field hands secured knotted brown vines to wires ahead of the spring growing season on freshly plowed earth in the shadow of the Champagne-producing town of Reuil, just west of Épernay.
Even these jobs were at risk, said Patrick Andrade, who runs a small company that helps maintain Champagne vineyards. The 12 hectare (30 acre) plot belonged to a small house that exports to the United States, he said.
Should sales fall, wine producers would need fewer field hands, and there would be less work for tractor operators, cork makers and bottle makers. In the worst case, he added, it could force Champagne producers to consider ripping out vines.
On Friday, France’s finance minister, Eric Lombard, called the trade war “idiotic” and said he would travel to Washington soon. “We need to talk to the Americans to bring the tension back down,” he told French television.
France’s biggest Champagne houses have stayed conspicuously silent, declining to say anything while waiting to see how Mr. Trump’s threat would play out — and whether European officials could get him to back off.
Among them was LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, which sells nearly 35 percent of its wines and spirits in the United States. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
Outside of LVMH’s Moët & Chandon mansion on the Avenue de Champagne, a group of Americans snapped selfies in front of a statue of Dom Pérignon, the monk who invented Champagne. Inside the stately building, no staff members wanted to talk tariffs.
Even so, locals whispered rumors that the big houses were upset by the tariff threat, but expected that it could quite possibly blow over.
After all, some said, Bernard Arnault, France’s richest man and the head of the LVMH empire, which dominates much of Champagne’s production, has a longstanding relationship with the U.S. president and was invited by Mr. Trump to his inauguration. Perhaps Mr. Arnault’s friendship would prevail at the end of the day, they said.
But for now, that is all just speculation. The reality is that nothing is certain — and uncertainty is bad for business.
Back at the Michel Gonet Champagne house, Mr. Boucher pointed to a display of cuvées that were popular among customers in the United States.
“It’s just a stressful situation because we don’t know if the tariffs will even happen,” he said. “It’s not good for anybody.”
Aurelien Breeden and Ségolène Le Stradic contributed reporting.
Business
Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s AI after clash with Pentagon
President Trump on Friday directed federal agencies to stop using technology from San Francisco artificial intelligence company Anthropic, escalating a high-profile clash between the AI startup and the Pentagon over safety.
In a Friday post on the social media site Truth Social, Trump described the company as “radical left” and “woke.”
“We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!” Trump said.
The president’s harsh words mark a major escalation in the ongoing battle between some in the Trump administration and several technology companies over the use of artificial intelligence in defense tech.
Anthropic has been sparring with the Pentagon, which had threatened to end its $200-million contract with the company on Friday if it didn’t loosen restrictions on its AI model so it could be used for more military purposes. Anthropic had been asking for more guarantees that its tech wouldn’t be used for surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons.
The tussle could hobble Anthropic’s business with the government. The Trump administration said the company was added to a sweeping national security blacklist, ordering federal agencies to immediately discontinue use of its products and barring any government contractors from maintaining ties with it.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who met with Anthropic’s Chief Executive Dario Amodei this week, criticized the tech company after Trump’s Truth Social post.
“Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon,” he wrote Friday on social media site X.
Anthropic didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Anthropic announced a two-year agreement with the Department of Defense in July to “prototype frontier AI capabilities that advance U.S. national security.”
The company has an AI chatbot called Claude, but it also built a custom AI system for U.S. national security customers.
On Thursday, Amodei signaled the company wouldn’t cave to the Department of Defense’s demands to loosen safety restrictions on its AI models.
The government has emphasized in negotiations that it wants to use Anthropic’s technology only for legal purposes, and the safeguards Anthropic wants are already covered by the law.
Still, Amodei was worried about Washington’s commitment.
“We have never raised objections to particular military operations nor attempted to limit use of our technology in an ad hoc manner,” he said in a blog post. “However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values.”
Tech workers have backed Anthropic’s stance.
Unions and worker groups representing 700,000 employees at Amazon, Google and Microsoft said this week in a joint statement that they’re urging their employers to reject these demands as well if they have additional contracts with the Pentagon.
“Our employers are already complicit in providing their technologies to power mass atrocities and war crimes; capitulating to the Pentagon’s intimidation will only further implicate our labor in violence and repression,” the statement said.
Anthropic’s standoff with the U.S. government could benefit its competitors, such as Elon Musk’s xAI or OpenAI.
Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT and one of Anthropic’s biggest competitors, told CNBC in an interview that he trusts Anthropic.
“I think they really do care about safety, and I’ve been happy that they’ve been supporting our war fighters,” he said. “I’m not sure where this is going to go.”
Anthropic has distinguished itself from its rivals by touting its concern about AI safety.
The company, valued at roughly $380 billion, is legally required to balance making money with advancing the company’s public benefit of “responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity.”
Developers, businesses, government agencies and other organizations use Anthropic’s tools. Its chatbot can generate code, write text and perform other tasks. Anthropic also offers an AI assistant for consumers and makes money from paid subscriptions as well as contracts. Unlike OpenAI, which is testing ads in ChatGPT, Anthropic has pledged not to show ads in its chatbot Claude.
The company has roughly 2,000 employees and has revenue equivalent to about $14 billion a year.
Business
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By Kirsten Grind, Melanie Bencosme, James Surdam and Sean Havey
February 27, 2026
Business
Commentary: How Trump helped foreign markets outperform U.S. stocks during his first year in office
Trump has crowed about the gains in the U.S. stock market during his term, but in 2025 investors saw more opportunity in the rest of the world.
If you’re a stock market investor you might be feeling pretty good about how your portfolio of U.S. equities fared in the first year of President Trump’s term.
All the major market indices seemed to be firing on all cylinders, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gaining 17.9% through the full year.
But if you’re the type of investor who looks for things to regret, pay no attention to the rest of the world’s stock markets. That’s because overseas markets did better than the U.S. market in 2025 — a lot better. The MSCI World ex-USA index — that is, all the stock markets except the U.S. — gained more than 32% last year, nearly double the percentage gains of U.S. markets.
That’s a major departure from recent trends. Since 2013, the MSCI US index had bested the non-U.S. index every year except 2017 and 2022, sometimes by a wide margin — in 2024, for instance, the U.S. index gained 24.6%, while non-U.S. markets gained only 4.7%.
The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade.
— Katie Martin, Financial Times
Broken down into individual country markets (also by MSCI indices), in 2025 the U.S. ranked 21st out of 23 developed markets, with only New Zealand and Denmark doing worse. Leading the pack were Austria and Spain, with 86% gains, but superior records were turned in by Finland, Ireland and Hong Kong, with gains of 50% or more; and the Netherlands, Norway, Britain and Japan, with gains of 40% or more.
Investment analysts cite several factors to explain this trend. Judging by traditional metrics such as price/earnings multiples, the U.S. markets have been much more expensive than those in the rest of the world. Indeed, they’re historically expensive. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index traded in 2025 at about 23 times expected corporate earnings; the historical average is 18 times earnings.
Investment managers also have become nervous about the concentration of market gains within the U.S. technology sector, especially in companies associated with artificial intelligence R&D. Fears that AI is an investment bubble that could take down the S&P’s highest fliers have investors looking elsewhere for returns.
But one factor recurs in almost all the market analyses tracking relative performance by U.S. and non-U.S. markets: Donald Trump.
Investors started 2025 with optimism about Trump’s influence on trading opportunities, given his apparent commitment to deregulation and his braggadocio about America’s dominant position in the world and his determination to preserve, even increase it.
That hasn’t been the case for months.
”The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade,” Katie Martin of the Financial Times wrote this week. “Wherever you look in financial markets, you see signs that global investors are going out of their way to avoid Donald Trump’s America.”
Two Trump policy initiatives are commonly cited by wary investment experts. One, of course, is Trump’s on-and-off tariffs, which have left investors with little ability to assess international trade flows. The Supreme Court’s invalidation of most Trump tariffs and the bellicosity of his response, which included the immediate imposition of new 10% tariffs across the board and the threat to increase them to 15%, have done nothing to settle investors’ nerves.
Then there’s Trump’s driving down the value of the dollar through his agitation for lower interest rates, among other policies. For overseas investors, a weaker dollar makes U.S. assets more expensive relative to the outside world.
It would be one thing if trade flows and the dollar’s value reflected economic conditions that investors could themselves parse in creating a picture of investment opportunities. That’s not the case just now. “The current uncertainty is entirely man-made (largely by one orange-hued man in particular) but could well continue at least until the US mid-term elections in November,” Sam Burns of Mill Street Research wrote on Dec. 29.
Trump hasn’t been shy about trumpeting U.S. stock market gains as emblems of his policy wisdom. “The stock market has set 53 all-time record highs since the election,” he said in his State of the Union address Tuesday. “Think of that, one year, boosting pensions, 401(k)s and retirement accounts for the millions and the millions of Americans.”
Trump asserted: “Since I took office, the typical 401(k) balance is up by at least $30,000. That’s a lot of money. … Because the stock market has done so well, setting all those records, your 401(k)s are way up.”
Trump’s figure doesn’t conform to findings by retirement professionals such as the 401(k) overseers at Bank of America. They reported that the average account balance grew by only about $13,000 in 2025. I asked the White House for the source of Trump’s claim, but haven’t heard back.
Interpreting stock market returns as snapshots of the economy is a mug’s game. Despite that, at her recent appearance before a House committee, Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi tried to deflect questions about her handling of the Jeffrey Epstein records by crowing about it.
“The Dow is over 50,000 right now, she declared. “Americans’ 401(k)s and retirement savings are booming. That’s what we should be talking about.”
I predicted that the administration would use the Dow industrial average’s break above 50,000 to assert that “the overall economy is firing on all cylinders, thanks to his policies.” The Dow reached that mark on Feb. 6. But Feb. 11, the day of Bondi’s testimony, was the last day the index closed above 50,000. On Thursday, it closed at 49,499.50, or about 1.4% below its Feb. 10 peak close of 50,188.14.
To use a metric suggested by economist Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan, if you invested $48,488 in the Dow on the day Trump took office last year, when the Dow closed at 48,448 points, you would have had $50,000 on Feb. 6. That’s a gain of about 3.2%. But if you had invested the same amount in the global stock market not including the U.S. (based on the MSCI World ex-USA index), on that same day you would have had nearly $60,000. That’s a gain of nearly 24%.
Broader market indices tell essentially the same story. From Jan. 17, 2025, the last day before Trump’s inauguration, through Thursday’s close, the MSCI US stock index gained a cumulative 16.3%. But the world index minus the U.S. gained nearly 42%.
The gulf between U.S. and non-U.S. performance has continued into the current year. The S&P 500 has gained about 0.74% this year through Wednesday, while the MSCI World ex-USA index has gained about 8.9%. That’s “the best start for a calendar year for global stocks relative to the S&P 500 going back to at least 1996,” Morningstar reports.
It wouldn’t be unusual for the discrepancy between the U.S. and global markets to shrink or even reverse itself over the course of this year.
That’s what happened in 2017, when overseas markets as tracked by MSCI beat the U.S. by more than three percentage points, and 2022, when global markets lost money but U.S. markets underperformed the rest of the world by more than five percentage points.
Economic conditions change, and often the stock markets march to their own drummers. The one thing less likely to change is that Trump is set to remain president until Jan. 20, 2029. Make your investment bets accordingly.
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