Science
Vesuvius Erupted, but When Exactly?
When Mount Vesuvius erupted in A.D. 79, fiery avalanches of ash and pumice assaulted Pompeii, displacing some 15,000 inhabitants and killing at least 1,500 more. Volcanic debris “poured across the land,” wrote the Roman lawyer Pliny the Younger, and blanketed the town in a darkness “like the black of closed and unlighted rooms.” Within two days Pompeii had vanished, leaving little more than a legend until 1748, when the chance discovery of a water line prompted the first deliberate excavation.
In his late-18th-century travelogue “Italian Journey,” Goethe observed that no calamity in history had given greater entertainment to posterity than the eruption that had buried Pompeii. For scholars and armchair archaeologists, that entertainment has involved wrangling over pretty much every facet of the disaster. They still can’t agree on the day Vesuvius blew its top, the height of the umbrella-shaped cloud or the length and the aggression of the blasts. Two new research projects add kindling to those embers.
A report published by the Archaeological Park of Pompeii resurrected the once widely accepted belief that the cataclysm began to unfold on Aug. 24, the date put forward by Pliny, who was 17 when he witnessed the event from a villa across the Bay of Naples. His letters to the historian Tacitus, written more than 25 years after the fact, are the only surviving firsthand account and the only documents that offer a precise date.
We no longer have the original letters, only translations and transcriptions of copies, the first of which was made in the fifth century A.D. “Many manuscripts of Pliny’s letters came down to us with differing dates,” said the classicist Daisy Dunn. Her 2019 biography of Pliny, “The Shadow of Vesuvius,” is the definitive guide to him and his uncle, the naturalist Pliny the Elder, who died during the eruption. “Aug. 24 was chosen as the most secure on textual grounds,” Dr. Dunn said.
In sticking by Pliny, the park walked back some of the recent enthusiasm for Oct. 24 as a possible start date for the eruption, a theory that had been fueled by the 2018 discovery of a scrap of graffiti on a wall of the site’s freshly excavated House of the Garden. The charcoal scrawl records a date that translates to Oct. 17 in the modern calendar, suggesting that the eruption might have occurred after this time. The find, which did not specify a year, seemed to corroborate other unearthed clues that pointed to cooler weather than is typical in August: remnants of unripe autumnal fruits such as chestnuts and pomegranates; heavy wool clothing found on bodies; wine in sealed jars, indicating that the grape harvest was over; and wood-burning braziers in homes.
Massimo Osanna, general director of the park at the time of the discovery, was convinced that the graffiti was idly doodled a week before the explosion. “This spectacular find finally allows us to date, with confidence, the disaster,” he said. Dr. Dunn found it improbable that Pliny would have forgotten such a momentous date; still, she said, “in my view, the traditional date of Aug. 24 is just too early in the year to be accurate.”
The dating game
The park’s recent about-face from October to August relied in part on a forensic analysis of Pliny’s letters by Pedar Foss, a classicist at DePauw University in Indiana. For his 2022 book, “Pliny and the Eruption of Vesuvius,” Dr. Foss examined 79 early hand-copied manuscripts of the letters and mapped out how textural errors had been compounded. He concluded that a simple scribal mistake, made in the 1420s, of switching a “u” for an “n” had resulted in an incorrect eruption date of Nov. 1. The error appeared in the second print edition of Pliny’s letters, in 1474, and gave rise to further misreadings, misunderstandings and misuses.
By the 20th century, seven different possibilities were in circulation — eight, counting Nov. 9, which Mark Twain casually proposed in “Innocents Abroad,” his 1869 travel narrative. “Those many options gave the appearance of doubt concerning what Pliny actually wrote but, upon examination, I was able to explain away each of the mistaken alternatives,” Dr. Foss said.
He also explained away each of the archaeological alternatives to Aug. 24, some of which he believes fail based on the evidence; some, on the basis of faulty reasoning. He argued that the pomegranate rinds were used for dyeing, not eating; that the Romans commonly used braziers for cooking, not just heating; that wool clothing was standard gear for Roman firefighters; and that Roman agricultural and storage practices allowed for the preservation of fruits beyond their natural harvest seasons.
As for the House of the Garden doodle, on Oct. 12, 2023, researchers commissioned by Dr. Osanna’s successor, Gabriel Zuchtriegel, left their own charcoal message on the same wall on which the graffito appeared. Ten months later — on Aug. 24, 2024 — the text was still perfectly legible. “The inscription could have been put on the wall during October of any number of previous years,” Dr. Foss said.
So much for dating the disaster with confidence.
Letting off steam
Claudio Scarpati, a volcanologist at the University of Naples Federico II, favors the traditional date. “In my mind, the eruption occurred in August, on a sunny day,” he said. Dr. Scarpati is the lead author of two recent studies of the catastrophe published in The Journal of the Geological Society. One offered an hour-by-hour reconstruction, extending the chronology from the previously estimated 19 hours to 32 hours. The other revealed a dynamic sequence with 17 distinct “pyroclastic density currents,” many of them previously undocumented.
Pyroclastic currents are hot, swift-moving mixtures of volcanic particles — ash, pumice lava fragments and gas — that flow according to their density in relation to the surroundings. Dr. Scarpati said that contrary to popular belief, Pompeians were neither entombed by molten lava nor poisoned by gas. “No lava reached Pompeii, and the gas was predominantly vaporized water and, to a lesser extent, carbon dioxide,” he said. “According to our studies, the victims died primarily from asphyxiation caused by inhaling ash.”
To measure the distribution and the volume of the ash and the pumice layers, the team measured the thickness of the single layers over a 775-square-mile area around Mount Vesuvius. The deposits recorded dramatic, increasingly violent pulses from the volcano.
At noon on Day 1, Vesuvius began to eject a plume of rocky volcanic fragments and gas into the air, known as an eruption column. The mushroom cloud that Pliny observed at 1 p.m. was typical of what is now known as a Plinian eruption, in tribute to his richly detailed testament.
Dr. Scarpati said that the first currents had flowed to the town of Herculaneum, west of Vesuvius, bringing intense heat that essentially roasted inhabitants and, in one documented case, turned human tissue into glass, a process known as vitrification. At Pompeii, south of the volcano, the currents were cooler, and only the final eight penetrated the town.
During the first 17 hours, Dr. Scarpati said, Pompeii was blanketed with pumice lapilli from the column, which fluctuated like a giant fountain through 12 distinct pulses. At 2 p.m., the volcano began to spew pumice mixed with gas. Over the next four hours, roofs began to cave in under the weight of the pumice lapilli, causing some supporting walls to crumble as well. After 17 hours, the debris in Pompeii was up to nine feet thick. Enough was ejected to bury Manhattan roughly 450 feet, or 45 building stories, deep.
The eruption peaked when the column reached its maximum height of 21 miles, at about 1 a.m. on Day 2. “The column rose as long as its density was lower than that of the air, like a balloon,” Dr. Scarpati said. At daybreak, enormous amounts of fine ash and pumice collapsed the eruptive column, forming pyroclastic currents.
During a brief lull, Pompeians presumably tried to flee the town. Then, just after 7 a.m., the 13th and most lethal current struck — a thick concoction of ash was disgorged for nine hours, spreading detritus 16 miles across the plain and into the Lattari Mountains. In Pompeii, many victims of the volcano were found in the streets encased in this layer.
Around 4 p.m., the magma in the volcano’s conduit interacted with groundwater, causing the magma to break up into fine ash. No human remains were found in any of the layers after the 13th, suggesting to Dr. Scarpati that the morning’s devastation left no survivors. The eruption ceased at 8 p.m.
Paul Cole, a volcanologist at the University of Plymouth in England who was not involved with the project, said, “The work places a finer timeline on the events of 2,000 years ago, and also provides fresh evidence for how the hazard from such large, explosive eruptions can change even during the event.”
Rumpus involving Vesuvius may go on endlessly, but unlike Pliny’s letters, the geological history of the eruption seems to have been written in stone.
Science
TrumpRx is launched: How it works and what Democrats say about it
WASHINGTON — The White House’s TrumpRx website went live Thursday with a promise to instantly deliver prescription drugs at “the lowest price anywhere in the world.”
“This launch represents the largest reduction in prescription drug prices in history by many, many times, and it’s not even close,” President Trump said at a news conference announcing the launch of the platform.
Drug policy experts say the jury is still out on whether the platform will provide the significant savings Trump promises, though it will probably help people who need drugs not commonly covered by insurance.
Senate Democrats, meanwhile, called the site a “vanity project” and questioned whether the program presents a possible conflict of interest involving the pharmaceutical industry and the Trump family.
What is TrumpRx, really?
The new platform, trumprx.gov, is designed to help uninsured Americans find discounted prices for high-cost, brand-name prescriptions, including fertility, obesity and diabetes treatments.
The site does not directly sell drugs. Instead, consumers browse a list of discounted medicines, and select one for purchase. From there, they either receive a coupon accepted at certain pharmacies or are routed directly to a drug manufacturer’s website to purchase the prescription.
The White House said the reduced prices are possible after the administration negotiated voluntary “most favored nation” agreements with 16 major drugmakers including Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
Under these deals, manufacturers have agreed to set certain U.S. drug prices no higher than those paid in other wealthy nations in exchange for three-year tariff exemptions. However, the full legal and financial details of the deals have not been made public, leaving lawmakers to speculate how TrumpRx’s pricing model works.
What does it accomplish?
Though the White House has framed TrumpRx as a historic reset for prescription drug costs, economists said the platform offers limited new savings.
But it does move the needle on the issue of drug pricing transparency, away from the hidden mechanisms behind how prescription drugs are priced, rebated and distributed, according to Geoffrey Joyce, director of health policy at the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics.
“This has been a murky world, a terrible, obscure, opaque marketplace where drug prices have been inconsistently priced to different consumers,” Joyce said, “So this is a little step in the right direction, but it’s mostly performative from my perspective, which is kind of Trump in a nutshell.”
Still, for the uninsured or people seeking “lifestyle drugs” — like those for fertility or weight loss that insurers have historically declined to cover — TrumpRx could become a useful option, Joyce said.
“It’s kind of a win for Trump and a win for Pfizer,” Joyce said. “They get to say, ‘Look what we’re doing. We’re lowering prices. We’re keeping Trump happy, but it’s on our low-volume drugs, and drugs that we were discounting big time anyway.’”
Where does it fall short?
Early analyses by drug policy experts suggest many of the discounted medications listed on the TrumpRx site were already on offer through other drug databases before the platform launched.
For example, Pfizer’s Duavee menopause treatment is listed at $30.30 on TrumpRx, but it is also available for the same price at some pharmacies via GoodRx.
Weight management drug Wegovy starts at $199 on TrumpRx. Manufacturers were already selling the same discounted rates through its NovoCare Pharmacy program before the portal’s launch.
“[TrumpRx] uses data from GoodRx, an existing price-search database for prescription drugs,” said Darius N. Lakdawalla, a senior health policy researcher at USC. “It seems to provide prices that are essentially the same as the lowest price GoodRx reports on its website.”
Compared to GoodRx, TrumpRx covers a modest subset of drugs: 43 in all.
“Uninsured consumers, who do not use or know about GoodRx and need one of the specific drugs covered by the site, might benefit from TrumpRx. That seems like a very specific set of people,” Lakdawalla said.
Where do Democrats stand?
Democrats slammed the program this week, saying it would not provide substantial discounts for patients, and called for greater transparency around the administration’s dealings with drugmakers. To date, the administration has not disclosed the terms of the pricing agreements with manufacturers such as Pfizer and AstraZeneca.
In the lead-up to the TrumpRx launch, Democratic members of Congress questioned its usefulness and urged federal health regulators to delay its debut.
“This is just another Donald Trump pet project to rebrand something that already exists, take credit for it, and do nothing to actually lower healthcare prices,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said Friday. “Democrats will continue fighting to lower healthcare costs and push Republicans to stop giving handouts to billionaires at the expense of working-class Americans.”
Three other Democratic senators — Dick Durbin, Elizabeth Warren and Peter Welch — raised another concern in a Jan. 29 letter to Thomas March Bell, inspector general for the Department of Health and Human Services.
The three senators pointed to potential conflicts of interest between TrumpRx and an online dispensing company, BlinkRx.
One of Trump’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., joined the BlinkRx Board of Directors in February 2025.
Months before, he became a partner at 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm that holds a significant stake in BlinkRx and led the startup’s $140-million funding round in 2024. After his appointment, BlinkRx launched a service to help pharmaceutical companies build direct-to-patient sales platforms quickly.
“The timing of the BlinkRx announcement so closely following the administration’s outreach to the largest drug companies, and the involvement of President Trump’s immediate family, raises questions about potential coordination, influence and self-dealing,” according to an October 2025 statement by Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
Both BlinkRx and Donald Trump Jr. have denied any coordination.
What’s next?
The rollout of TrumpRx fits into a suite of White House programs designed to address rising costs, an area of vulnerability for Republicans ahead of the November midterms.
The White House issued a statement Friday urging support for the president’s healthcare initiative, dubbed “the great healthcare plan,” which it said will further reduce drug prices and lower insurance premiums.
For the roughly 8% of Americans without health insurance, TrumpRx’s website promises that more high-cost, brand-name drugs will be discounted on the platform in the future.
“It’s possible the benefits will become broader in the future,” Lakdawalla said. “I would say that the jury remains out on its long-run structure and its long-run pricing effects.”
Science
The loss of healthcare subsidies force Californians to pay more or go without
For Mikayla Tencer, being self-employed already meant juggling higher taxes, irregular income and the constant pressure of finding her own health insurance. This year, it also meant rethinking how often she could afford to see a doctor.
The 29-year-old content creator in San Francisco paid $168 a month last year for a Blue Shield health plan through Covered California. This year — without enhanced federal subsidies that expired at the end of December — that same plan would have cost $299 a month, with higher copays.
“People assume that because I’m young, I can just pick the cheapest plan and not worry about it,” Tencer said. “But I do need regular care, especially for mental health.”
Tencer is among tens of thousands of middle-class Californians facing steep increases in health insurance costs after Congress allowed enhanced federal subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans to expire Dec. 31.
Those extra subsidies were enacted in 2021 as part of temporary, pandemic-era relief, boosting financial help for people buying coverage on state-run insurance marketplaces such as Covered California. The law also expanded eligibility to people earning more than 400% of the federal poverty level, about $62,600 for a single person and $128,600 for a family of four.
Mikayla Tencer records a TikTok video featuring eyeliners. Her blog showcases Bay Area attractions and local businesses.
(Paul Kuroda/For The Times)
With the expiration of the enhanced subsidies, people above that income threshold no longer receive federal assistance, and many who still qualify are seeing sharply higher premiums and out-of-pocket costs. On top of the loss of the extra federal benefits, the average Covered California premium this year rose by 10.3% because of fast-rising medical costs.
Jessica Altman, executive director of Covered California, said that about 160,000 Californians lost their subsidies when the enhanced federal assistance expired because their incomes were higher than 400% of the federal poverty level.
To lower her monthly bill, Tencer switched to the cheapest Covered California option, bringing her premium down to about $161 a month. But the savings came with new costs. Primary care and mental health visits now carry $60 copays, up from $35.
When she showed up for a psychiatric appointment to manage her ADHD and generalized anxiety disorder, she said, she learned her doctor was out of network.
“That visit would have been $35 before,” she said. “Now it’s $180 out of pocket.”
Because of the higher costs, Tencer said she has cut therapy from weekly to biweekly sessions.
“The subsidies made it possible for me to be self-employed in the first place,” Tencer said. “Without them, I’m seriously thinking about applying for full-time jobs, even though the market is terrible.”
For another self-employed Californian, the increase was even more dramatic.
Krista, a 42-year-old photographer and videographer in Santa Cruz County, relies on costly monthly intravenous treatments for a rare blood disorder. She asked that her full name not be used but shared her insurance and medical documents with The Times.
Last year, she paid about $285 a month for a Covered California plan. In late December, she received a notice showing her premium would rise to more than $1,200 a month. The rise was due to her loss of federal subsidies, as well as a 23% increase in the premium charged by Blue Shield.
“It terrified me. I thought, how am I ever going to retire?” she asked. “What’s the point?”
Krista ultimately enrolled in a plan costing about $522 a month, still nearly double what she had been paying, with a $5,000 deductible. She said she cannot downgrade to a cheaper plan because her clinic bills her treatment to insurance at roughly $30,000 a month, according to medical statements.
To cut costs and preserve the ability to save for retirement and eventually afford a place of her own, Krista decided to move into an RV on private land. The decision came the same week she received notices showing a rent increase and a steep jump in her health insurance premiums.
Mikayla Tencer, a marketing influencer, with her elder dog, “Lucky” at Alamo Square Park.
(Paul Kuroda/For The Times)
Krista said she had been planning for more than a year to find a long-term living situation that would enable her to live independently, rather than continue paying more for an apartment.
“Nobody asks to be sick,” Krista said. “No one should have their life ruined because they get diagnosed with a disease or break a leg.”
Although overall enrollment in Covered California this year has held steady, Altman said, she worries that more people will drop coverage as bills with the higher premiums arrive in the mail.
Those fears are already playing out.
Jayme Wernicke, a 34-year-old receptionist and single mother in Chico who earns about $49,000 a year, said she was transferred from Medi-Cal to a Covered California Anthem Blue Cross plan at the end of 2023. Her premium rose from about $30 a month to $60, then jumped to roughly $230 after the subsidies expired.
“For them to raise my health insurance almost 400% is just insane to me,” Wernicke said.
Her employer, a small family-owned business, does not offer health insurance. Her plan does not include dental or vision care and, she said, barely covers medical costs.
“At a certain point, it just feels completely counterintuitive,” she said. “Either way, I’m losing.”
Wernicke dropped her own coverage and plans to pay for care with cash, calculating that the state tax penalty is less than the cost of premiums. Her daughter remains insured.
Two other Californian residents told The Times that they also decided to go without coverage because they could no longer afford it. They declined to provide their full names, citing concerns about financial and professional consequences.
Under California law, residents without coverage face an annual penalty of at least $900 per adult and $450 per child.
One, a 29-year-old self-employed publicist in Los Angeles requires medication for epilepsy. Last year, she paid about $535 a month for a silver plan through Covered California. This year, the same plan would have cost $823.
After earning about $55,000 last year, she calculated that paying for care out of pocket would cost far less. Her epilepsy medication costs about $175 every three months without insurance, and her annual doctor visits total roughly $250.
“All of that combined is still far less than paying hundreds of dollars every month,” she said.
Another, April, a 58-year-old small-business owner in San Francisco, canceled her insurance in December after her quoted premium rose to $1,151 a month for a bronze plan and $1,723 for a silver plan, just for herself. Last year, April said she paid $566 for both her and her daughter. This year, her daughter’s premium alone jumped from $155 to $424.
The bronze plan also carried a $3,500 deductible for lab work and specialist visits, meaning she would have had to pay thousands of dollars out of pocket before coverage kicked in, on top of the higher monthly premium.
“The subsidies were absolutely what allowed me to sustain my business,” April said. “They were helping me sustain my financial world and have affordable care.”
She rushed to complete medical tests before dropping coverage and hopes to go a year uninsured.
“The scariest part is not having catastrophic coverage,” she said. “If something happens, it can be millions of dollars.”
Tencer, the content creator in San Francisco, believes that in order to make the nation healthier, affordable healthcare should be universal.
“Our government should be providing it.” she said. “People can’t go to the doctor for routine checkups, they can’t get things checked out early, and they can’t access the resources they need.”
Science
Video: Rare Giant Phantom Jelly Spotted in Deep Waters Near Argentina
new video loaded: Rare Giant Phantom Jelly Spotted in Deep Waters Near Argentina

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