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In Texas Measles Outbreak, Signs of a Riskier Future for Children

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In Texas Measles Outbreak, Signs of a Riskier Future for Children

Every day, as Dr. Wendell Parkey enters his clinic in Seminole, a small city on the rural western edge of Texas, he announces his arrival to the staff with an anthem pumping loudly through speakers.

As the song reaches a climax, he throws up an arm and strikes a pose in cowboy boots. “Y’all ready to stomp out disease?” he asks.

Recently, the question has taken on a dark urgency. Seminole Memorial Hospital, where Dr. Parkey has practiced for nearly three decades, has found itself at the center of the largest measles outbreak in the United States since 2019.

Since last month, more than 140 Texas residents, most of whom live in the surrounding Gaines County, have been diagnosed and 20 have been hospitalized. Nine people in a bordering county in New Mexico have also fallen ill.

On Wednesday, local health officials announced that one child had died, the first measles death in the United States in a decade.

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It may not be the last. Large swaths of the Mennonite community, an insular Christian group that settled in the area in the 1970s, are unvaccinated and vulnerable to the virus.

The outbreak has struck at a remarkable juncture. Vaccine hesitancy has been rising in the United States for years and accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic. Now the nation’s most prominent vaccine skeptic, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has been named its top health official, the secretary of health and human services.

Mr. Kennedy has been particularly doubtful of measles as a public health problem, once writing that outbreaks were mostly “fabricated” to send health officials into a panic and fatten the profits of vaccine makers.

At a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Mr. Kennedy minimized the crisis in West Texas, saying that there had been four outbreaks so far this year (there have been three, according to federal health officials) and 16 last year.

Following widespread criticism, Mr. Kennedy posted a social media message on Friday saying he did “recognize the serious impact of this outbreak on families, children, and healthcare workers.”

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Vaccine fears have run deep in these parts for years, and some public health experts worry that the current outbreak is a glimpse at where much of America is headed. Researchers think of measles as the proverbial canary in a coal mine. It is among the most contagious infectious diseases, and often the first sign that other pathogens may be close behind.

“I’m concerned this is a harbinger of something bigger,” said Dr. Tony Moody, a pediatric infectious disease expert at the Duke University School of Medicine. “Is this simply going to be the first of many stories of vaccine-preventable disease making a resurgence in the United States?”

On the front lines of the outbreak, simple answers aren’t easy to come by.

Measles was officially declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. Not long ago, it had become so rare that many American doctors never saw a case.

But as the outbreak spread, Dr. Parkey learned to spot the signs of infection in the examination room even before he saw the telltale rashes.

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School-age children often zipped around the room or pestered their mothers or asked him for lollipops. The children stricken with measles sat still, vacant looks in their eyes.

On Monday, Dr. Parkey walked into a hospital room where an unvaccinated 8-year-old boy sat with that distant stare. His mother had scheduled an appointment after she noticed his barking cough the night before.

By the time they arrived at the clinic, the boy’s eyes were red and crusted. He had a low-grade fever and a blotchy pink rash covering his chest and back.

Dr. Parkey tried the usual banter: “Do you have a girlfriend?” The boy looked past him, glassy eyes trained on the wall.

“Which of your uncles is your favorite?” Dr. Parkey asked. The boy let out a dry cough and slumped further into his seat. He spoke only once, to request a cup of water.

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Over the next 24 hours, if the boy’s illness followed the typical progression, he was likely to get sicker. His fever would spike, and the rash would fan out over his torso and thighs.

If he was lucky, the worst would pass within a few days. If he was not, the virus might find its way into his lungs and cause pneumonia, potentially making it difficult to breathe without an oxygen mask.

Measles might even invade his brain, causing swelling and possible convulsions, blindness or deafness.

Doctors have few options to alter its course once the virus infects someone. There is no treatment that will stop it, only medicines to make the patient more comfortable.

Dr. Parkey wrote prescriptions for cough syrup and antibiotics for the boy. A nurse swabbed the back of his throat for a sample to be shipped to the state health department in a box of dry ice, adding to the county’s growing case count.

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For decades, the doctors at Seminole Memorial Hospital had been having conversations with patients about the importance of childhood vaccines.

Even on busy days with back-to-back appointments, staff members sat down with parents to discuss fears about side effects and to recount the horrors of many preventable diseases.

Go to an old cemetery, Dr. Parkey often told his patients — look at how many children died before vaccines arrived. In many families, though, minds were made up, and the conversations rarely broke through.

The largest school district in Gaines County reported that just 82 percent of kindergartners received the measles, mumps and rubella (M.M.R.) vaccine in 2023. One of the smaller school districts reported that less than half of the students had received the shot.

For a virus as contagious as measles — which spreads through microscopic droplets that can linger in the air for two hours — experts say that at least 95 percent of a community must be vaccinated in order to stave off an outbreak.

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Gaines County, a dusty expanse the size of Rhode Island dotted with cotton fields and whirring pump jacks, had not hit that mark in many years.

Although there is no religious doctrine that bans vaccination, the county’s tightknit Mennonites often avoid interacting with the medical system and hold to a long tradition of natural remedies, said Tina Siemens, a Seminole historian who has written several books about the community in West Texas.

In recent years, concerns about childhood vaccines appeared to rise even in the broader Seminole community, especially after Covid-19, several doctors said. An outbreak began to feel inevitable.

“I’d never seen measles, but I knew it was coming,” Dr. Parkey said.

In this respect, Gaines County is not so different from much the country.

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Before the pandemic, 95 percent of kindergartners in the United States had received the M.M.R. vaccine, according to federal tallies. The figure sank below 93 percent last year. Immunization rates against polio, whooping cough and chickenpox fell in similar proportions.

When the cases in Texas first surfaced, local doctors and health officials hoped that the outbreak would make the M.M.R. vaccines an easier sell. If parents saw what measles did to children, the thinking went, they would understand what the vaccine was designed to protect them from.

But there has been no stampede to vaccination. In Seminole, a city of about 7,200 people, almost 200 residents have received shots at pop-up clinics.

“Hopefully, at least the next generation will change their minds about vaccines,” Dr. Parkey said. “Just maybe not this one.”

One mother told Dr. Leila Myrick, a family medicine physician at Seminole Memorial, that the measles outbreak had helped solidify her decision not to vaccinate her children. She’d heard from a friend that the virus was similar to a bad flu.

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Even some parents who recognized the dangers that measles posed to their children still felt that vaccines were riskier.

Ansley Klassen, 25, lives in Seminole with her husband and four young children, three of whom are fully unvaccinated. She considered bringing her children to a vaccine clinic when measles cases first started popping up.

Mrs. Klassen, who is about five months pregnant, knew she didn’t want to risk getting measles. She had been scrubbing counters with Lysol wipes and keeping her children away from others as much as possible.

But on social media, she had seen a deluge of frightening posts about the side effects of vaccines: stories of children developing autism after a shot or dying from metal toxicity. (Both claims have been debunked by scientists.)

“There are stories that you can read about people multiple hours after they got the vaccine having effects, and that’s scary to me,” she said. “So I’m like, is it worth the risk? And right now I can’t figure that out.”

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These anecdotes — regardless of whether they are factual — are part of what has made vaccine hesitancy such an intractable problem in the age of social media, said Mary Politi, a professor at the Washington University School of Medicine who studies health decision-making.

Stories about children who don’t have serious side effects from vaccines and never contract vaccine-preventible illnesses don’t go viral on TikTok, she noted.

“It’s not that they’re trying to make a bad choice or do something against evidence,” she said. “People are trying to do the best thing they can for their families, and they don’t know who to trust.”

Mrs. Klassen didn’t consider herself staunchly anti-vaccine. Her oldest daughter, now 6, had received all of her vaccines up to a year.

But she didn’t trust everything doctors were telling her, either. She thought the Covid-19 vaccine had been developed too quickly and pushed too forcefully, making her skeptical that the authorities were telling the truth about the measles shot.

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She prayed about it and ultimately decided to forgo the vaccine. “The trust I have in the medical system is not there,” she said.

It’s not just unvaccinated people who are at risk during the current outbreak.

Measles increases the likelihood of stillbirths and serious complications in pregnant women, yet they cannot receive the vaccine or booster.

Andrea Ochoa, a nurse’s assistant at Seminole Memorial who is six months into her first pregnancy, said she thought about taking time off from her job but ultimately decided to stay so she could keep her health insurance.

She wore an N95 mask during her entire shift, which sometimes made her so lightheaded that she sat in her car for a break. She showered as soon as she was home.

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“I hope it doesn’t get worse,” Ms. Ochoa said of the outbreak. “I don’t know what choice I would make.”

Five vaccinated residents also have contracted measles, state health officials said. At the clinic, Dr. Parkey recently cared for a teacher who was vaccinated but immunocompromised.

A serious measles infection kept the teacher curled in a fetal position on the couch for a week, her eyes so swollen that she opened them only for brief runs to the bathroom, she recalled in an interview. She asked not be named to protect her privacy.

The West Texas measles outbreak is far from the largest in the United States in recent years. In 2019, outbreaks in at least two dozen states sickened more than 1,250 people.

A vast majority of those infections occurred in “underimmunized, close-knit communities,” the C.D.C. noted. More than 930 patients were infected in Orthodox Jewish communities in New York.

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Federal, state and local officials swung into action with vaccination campaigns that led to more than 60,000 M.M.R. immunizations in the affected communities. They reached out to religious leaders, local doctors and advocacy groups.

And in areas like Williamsburg, Brooklyn, officials went further, issuing mandates requiring vaccination.

The campaign in West Texas has been less forceful. Management of outbreaks like this one falls to state health officials, and they ask for help from the C.D.C. and other federal resources as necessary.

The C.D.C. is providing some technical assistance, but Texas health officials said they did not need more help from the agency. They have not declared a public health emergency, as officials did in parts of New York State, nor have they moved to mandate vaccination.

“We can’t force anybody to take a drug — that’s assault,” said Dr. Ron Cook, a health official in nearby Lubbock, at a news conference on Friday.

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Zachary Holbrooks, the local public health official for four Texas counties, including Gaines, said that type of mandate would be deeply unpopular in the state, where individual freedom is a strongly held value.

Texas public schools require children to have received certain vaccines, including the M.M.R. shot. But in this state, as in many others, parents can apply for an exemption for “reasons of conscience,” including religious beliefs.

In January, as the first cases of measles began spreading in Gaines County, state legislators introduced several bills designed to weaken school vaccination requirements.

“I don’t want to see a baby’s lips turn blue because they can’t breathe,” Mr. Holbrooks said. “I don’t want anybody to suffer from long-lasting disability because they got measles.”

“But if you choose to live in Texas,” he added, “you can exercise that option.”

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A retired teacher found some seahorses off Long Beach. Then he built a secret world for them

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A retired teacher found some seahorses off Long Beach. Then he built a secret world for them

Rog Hanson emerges from the coastal waters, pulls a diving regulator out of his mouth and pushes a scuba mask down around his neck.

“Did you see her?” he says. “Did you see Bathsheba?”

On this quiet Wednesday morning, a paddle boarder glides silently through the surf off Long Beach. Two stick-legged whimbrels plunge their long curved beaks into the sand, hunting for crabs.

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But Hanson, 68, is enchanted by what lies hidden beneath the water. Today he took a visitor on a tour of the secret world he built from palm fronds and pine branches at the bottom of the bay: his very own seahorse city.

The visitor confirms that she did see Bathsheba, an 11-inch-long orange Pacific seahorse, and a grin spreads across Hanson’s broad face.

“Isn’t she beautiful?” he says. “She’s our supermodel.”

If you get Hanson talking about his seahorses, he’ll tell you exactly how many times he’s seen them (997), who is dating whom, and describe their personalities with intimate familiarity. Bathsheba is stoic, Daphne a runner. Deep Blue is chill.

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He will also tell you that getting to know these strange, almost mythical beings has profoundly affected his life.

“I swear, it has made me a better human being,” he says. “On land I’m very C-minus, but underwater, I’m Mensa.”

Hanson is a retired schoolteacher, not a scientist, but experts say he probably has spent more time with Pacific seahorses, also known as Hippocampus ingens, than anyone on Earth.

“To my knowledge, he is the only person tracking ingens directly,” says Amanda Vincent, a professor at the University of British Columbia and director of the marine conservation group Project Seahorse. “Many people love seahorses, but Roger’s absorption with them is definitely distinctive. There’s a degree of warm obsession there, perhaps.”

Rog Hanson posing in his gear on the beach.

Rog Hanson keeps watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

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Over the last three years, Hanson has made the two-hour trek from his home in Moreno Valley to the industrial shoreline of Long Beach to visit his “kids” about every five days. To avoid traffic, he often leaves at 2 a.m. and then sleeps in his car when he arrives.

He keeps three tanks of air and his scuba gear in the trunk of his 2009 Kia Rio. A toothbrush and a pair of pink leopard print reading glasses rest on the dash.

Hanson makes careful notes after all his dives in a colorful handmade log book he stores in a three-ring binder. On this Wednesday he dutifully records the water temperature (62 degrees), the length of the dive (58 minutes), the greatest depth (15 feet) and visibility (3 feet), as well as the precise location of each seahorse. His notes also include phase of the moon, the tidal currents and the strength of the UV rays.

“Scientists will tell you that sunlight is an important statistic to keep down,” he says.

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He has given each of his four seahorses a unique logo that he draws with markers in his log book. Bathsheba’s is a purple star outlined in red, Daphne’s is a brown striped star in a yellow circle.

A detailed log of seahorse sightings written in a notebook with colorful inks.

Rog Hanson makes careful notes after all his dives. He has given each of his four seahorses a unique logo.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

He’s learned that the seahorses don’t like it when he hovers nearby for too long. Now he limits his interactions with them to 15 to 30 seconds at a time.

“At first I bugged them too much,” he says. “I was the paparazzi swimming around.”

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Hanson traces the origins of his seahorse story back nearly two decades to the early morning of Dec. 30, 2000.

He was diving solo off Shaw’s Cove in Laguna Beach when a slow-moving giant emerged from the abyss. It was a gray whale whose 40-foot frame cast Hanson in shadow.

The whale could have killed him with a flick of its tail, Hanson says, but he felt no fear. The two made eye contact and, as Hanson tells it, he felt the whale’s gaze peering directly into his soul.

It was all over in 10 seconds, but Hanson was altered. He had always wanted to live at the beach, but after this encounter, he vowed to make it happen. It took years —15, in fact — but he finally got a job as a special education teacher in the Long Beach public school system. He bought a van and parked it on Ocean Boulevard. He lived at the beach and dived every day for 3½ months before moving to Moreno Valley.

To amuse himself while he lived at the beach, he built an underwater city he called Littleville out of discarded toys he found at the bottom of the bay.

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Hanson saw his first seahorse in January 2016 while checking on Littleville. It was bright orange, just 4.5 inches long, and Hanson, who had logged over a thousand dives in the area, knew it didn’t belong there.

A red seahorse surrounded by sealife under water.

Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

The range of the Pacific seahorse is generally thought to extend from Peru to as far north as San Diego. This seahorse ended up about 100 miles north of that.

Scientists said the seahorse and others that joined her had probably ridden an unusual pulse of warm water up the coast, along with other animals generally found in southern waters.

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“We were getting a lot of weird sightings in the fall of 2015,” says Sandy Trautwein, vice president of husbandry at the Aquarium of the Pacific. “There was a yellow-bellied sea snake, bluefin tuna, marlin, whale sharks — a lot of animals associated with warm water.”

Most of these animals eventually left after ocean temperatures returned to normal, but Hanson’s seahorses stayed.

That may be because Hanson had built them a home.

It happened like this: In June 2016 he watched in horror as more than 100 high school football players splashed in the shallow waters, right where his seahorses usually hung out.

“I thought, I gotta do something, I gotta do something,” he says.

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“On land I’m very C-minus, but underwater, I’m Mensa.”

— Rog Hanson

Then he remembered that, back in the Midwest where he grew up, he used to help the city park service make “fish cribs.” In early spring they would use brush and twigs to build what looked like a miniature log cabin with no roof on an ice-covered lake. When the ice melted, the cribs would fall to the bottom, creating a habitat for fish and other animals.

“So I said to myself, build them a city that’s deeper, where feet can’t get to it even at low tide,” Hanson says.

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And he did.

By July 2016 two pairs of seahorses had moved into the new habitat. Daphne, the runner, was named after the nymph from Greek mythology who flees Apollo, Kenny’s name came from the proprietor of a local kayaking company. “Bathsheba” was inspired by a Bible story, and her mate, Deep Blue, named after a dive shop that has helped sponsor Hanson’s work since he launched his seahorse study.

He’s seen Kenny’s and Deep Blue’s bellies swell with pregnancy and noted how their partners check in on them daily, frequently standing sentinel nearby. He’s visited the fish at odd hours to see how their behavior changes from morning to night. And he mourned when Kenny disappeared in January. He still hasn’t come back. (A new member, CD Street, arrived June 29.)

“It feels like I’m reading a book, the book of their life, and I can’t put it down,” he says.

He’s also reached out to seahorse scientists across the globe to compare notes. “I won’t say I know the most about seahorses in the world, but I know the people who do,” he says.

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Amanda Vincent, the director of Project Seahorse, says that seahorses spark an emotional reaction in almost everyone.

Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay.

Daphne is one of the seahorses that Rog Hanson is studying in Alamitos Bay. Hanson and Ashley Arnold keep watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

“Remember those books with three flaps where you can mix the head of a giraffe with the body of a snake and the tail of a monkey? That’s what we’ve got here,” she says. “They appeal to the sense of fancy and wonder in us.”

When Mark Showalter, a planetary astronomer at the SETI Institute, recently discovered a moon orbiting Neptune, he named it Hippocamp in part because of his love of seahorses.

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“I’ve seen them in the wild and they are marvelously strange and interesting,” he says. “It’s a fish, but it doesn’t look anything like a fish.”

Pacific seahorses are among the largest members of the seahorse family. Males can grow up to 14 inches long, while females generally top out at about 11. They come in a variety of colors, including orange, maroon, brown and yellow. They are talented camouflagers that can alter the color of their exoskeleton to blend into their environment.

“I won’t say I know the most about seahorses in the world, but I know the people who do.”

But perhaps their most distinguishing characteristic is that they are the only known species in the animal kingdom to exhibit a true male pregnancy. Females deposit up to 1,500 eggs in the male’s pouch. The males incubate the eggs, providing nutrition and oxygen for the growing embryos. When the larval seahorses are ready to be released, he goes into labor — scientists call it “jackknifing” — pushing his trunk toward his tail.

After three years of observation, Hanson has collected new evidence about seahorse mating practices. His research suggests that although most seahorses are monogamous, a female will mate with two males if there are no other female seahorses around.

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He also found that males, who are in an almost constant state of pregnancy, tend to stick to an area about the size of a king-size mattress, while the females roam up to 150 feet from their home during a typical day.

Eventually, he may be able to help scientists answer another long-standing question: What is the lifespan of Pacific seahorses in the wild? Some researchers say about five years; others think it could be up to 12.

“It will be interesting to see what Roger finds out,” Vincent says.

In June 2017, about one year after Hanson began formally tracking the seahorses, he took on a partner: a young scuba instructor named Ashley Arnold.

Arnold, who has short red hair and a jocular vibe, is a former Army staff sergeant who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. She learned to dive as part of a program the Salt Lake City Veterans Affairs hospital offered to female veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder and military sexual trauma. Arnold suffered from both. Diving became her salvation.

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Dive instructor Ashley Arnold sitting at the bed of a truck.

Dive instructor Ashley Arnold is a former Army staff sergeant who says that diving at least twice a week helps her deal with PTSD and MST.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

“All the irritation on the surface disappears when you go under the water,” she says. “It’s like, ‘What was I concerned about?’ You forget about everything else. Nothing else matters.”

She used her GI Bill to pay for a scuba instructor course and to set up her own business. Now, she finds that if she dives at least twice a week and has a dog, she does not need to take medication.

“All the irritation on the surface disappears when you go under the water.”

— Ashley Arnold

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“That’s a pretty big statement in my opinion,” she says.

Arnold and Hanson met in June 2016 on a dive trip to Catalina. Hanson mentioned his seahorses. Arnold was intrigued, but still lived in Salt Lake City.

One year later, Arnold moved to Huntington Beach and gave Hanson a call.

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“I said, ‘Hey Roger, let’s chat. Any chance I could join you at the seahorses you talked about?’” she says. “And he decided I was acceptable.”

Now, Arnold and her boyfriend, Jake Fitzgerald, check in on the seahorses about once a week and help Roger rebuild the city he created for them.

Rog Hanson and Ashley Arnold posing in their gear on the beach.

Rog Hanson, 68, teamed up with dive instructor Ashley Arnold two years ago to keep watch over a small colony of Pacific seahorses.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

“We call them our kids because we love them so much,” Arnold says.

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Hanson and Arnold are very protective of their seahorse family. They tell visitors to remove GPS tags from their photos. They swear them to secrecy.

There is little chance anyone would find Hanson’s seahorses without a guide. Also, diving in these waters off Long Beach can be a challenge.

The water is shallow. It’s hard to get your buoyancy right. A misplaced flipper kick can stir up blinding sand and silt.

But if Hanson wants to show you his underwater world, nothing will stop him. He will hold you firmly by the hand and guide you down to the forest he built at the bottom of the bay.

Rog Hanson rinses off Ashley Arnold in her gear on the beach.

Ashley Arnold, right, gets rinsed off with a hose by Rog Hanson after a dive Alamitos Bay.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

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He will use a plastic tent stake, jabbing it into the bottom to propel himself — and you holding on — across the ocean floor. When he spots a seahorse he will use the stake as a pointer. Through the murky water you strain to see. Then it appears.

Orange and rigid. Thin snout. Bony plates. Stripes down the torso. Totally still.

And if you’ve never seen a seahorse in the wild before, you will feel honored and awed, as if you’ve just seen a unicorn beneath the sea.

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California’s summer COVID wave shows signs of waning. What are the numbers in your community?

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California’s summer COVID wave shows signs of waning. What are the numbers in your community?

There are some encouraging signs that California’s summer COVID wave might be leveling off.

That’s not to say the seasonal spike is in the rearview mirror just yet, however. Coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater remain “very high,” according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as they are in much of the country.

But while some COVID indicators are rising in the Golden State, others are starting to fall — a hint that the summer wave may soon start to decline.

Statewide, the rate at which coronavirus lab tests are coming back positive was 11.72% for the week that ended Sept. 6, the highest so far this season, and up from 10.8% the prior week. Still, viral levels in wastewater are significantly lower than during last summer’s peak.

The latest COVID hospital admission rate was 3.9 hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents. That’s a slight decline from 4.14 the prior week. Overall, COVID hospitalizations remain low statewide, particularly compared with earlier surges.

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The number of newly admitted COVID hospital patients has declined slightly in Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County, but ticked up slightly up in Orange County. In San Francisco, some doctors believe the summer COVID wave is cresting.

“There are a few more people in the hospitals, but I think it’s less than last summer,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert. “I feel like we are at a plateau.”

Those who are being hospitalized tend to be older people who didn’t get immunized against COVID within the last year, Chin-Hong said, and some have a secondary infection known as superimposed bacterial pneumonia.

Los Angeles County

In L.A. County, there are hints that COVID activity is either peaking or starting to decline. Viral levels in local wastewater are still rising, but the test positivity rate is declining.

For the week that ended Sept. 6, 12.2% of wastewater samples tested for COVID in the county were positive, down from 15.9% the prior week.

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“Many indicators of COVID-19 activity in L.A. County declined in this week’s data,” the L.A. County Department of Public Health told The Times on Friday. “While it’s too early to know if we have passed the summer peak of COVID-19 activity this season, this suggests community transmission is slowing.”

Orange County

In Orange County, “we appear to be in the middle of a wave right now,” said Dr. Christopher Zimmerman, deputy medical director of the county’s Communicable Disease Control Division.

The test positivity rate has plateaued in recent weeks — it was 15.3% for the week that ended Sept. 6, up from 12.9% the prior week, but down from 17.9% the week before that.

COVID is still prompting people to seek urgent medical care, however. Countywide, 2.9% of emergency room visits were for COVID-like illness for the week that ended Sept. 6, the highest level this year, and up from 2.6% for the week that ended Aug. 30.

San Diego County

For the week that ended Sept. 6, 14.1% of coronavirus lab tests in San Diego County were positive for infection. That’s down from 15.5% the prior week, and 16.1% for the week that ended Aug. 23.

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Ventura County

COVID is also still sending people to the emergency room in Ventura County. Countywide, 1.73% of ER patients for the week that ended Sept. 12 were there to seek treatment for COVID, up from 1.46% the prior week.

San Francisco

In San Francisco, the test positivity rate was 7.5% for the week that ended Sept. 7, down from 8.4% for the week that ended Aug. 31.

“COVID-19 activity in San Francisco remains elevated, but not as high as the previous summer’s peaks,” the local Department of Public Health said.

Silicon Valley

In Santa Clara County, the coronavirus remains at a “high” level in the sewershed of San José and Palo Alto.

Roughly 1.3% of ER visits for the week that ended Sunday were attributed to COVID in Santa Clara County, down from the prior week’s figure of 2%.

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Early adopters of ‘zone zero’ fared better in L.A. County fires, insurance-backed investigation finds

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Early adopters of ‘zone zero’ fared better in L.A. County fires, insurance-backed investigation finds

As the Eaton and Palisades fires rapidly jumped between tightly packed houses, the proactive steps some residents took to retrofit their homes with fire-resistant building materials and to clear flammable brush became a significant indicator of a home’s fate.

Early adopters who cleared vegetation and flammable materials within the first five feet of their houses’ walls — in line with draft rules for the state’s hotly debated “zone zero” regulations — fared better than those who didn’t, an on-the-ground investigation from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety published Wednesday found.

Over a week in January, while the fires were still burning, the insurance team inspected more than 250 damaged, destroyed and unscathed homes in Altadena and Pacific Palisades.

On properties where the majority of zone zero land was covered in vegetation and flammable materials, the fires destroyed 27% of homes; On properties with less than a quarter of zone zero covered, only 9% were destroyed.

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The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, an independent research nonprofit funded by the insurance industry, performed similar investigations for Colorado’s 2012 Waldo Canyon fire, Hawaii’s 2023 Lahaina fire and California’s Tubbs, Camp and Woolsey fires of 2017 and 2018.

While a handful of recent studies have found homes with sparse vegetation in zone zero were more likely to survive fires, skeptics say it does not yet amount to a scientific consensus.

Travis Longcore, senior associate director and an adjunct professor at the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, cautioned that the insurance nonprofit’s results are only exploratory: The team did not analyze whether other factors, such as the age of the homes, were influencing their zone zero analysis, and how the nonprofit characterizes zone zero for its report, he noted, does not exactly mirror California’s draft regulations.

Meanwhile, Michael Gollner, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at UC Berkeley who studies how wildfires destroy and damage homes, noted that the nonprofit’s sample does not perfectly represent the entire burn areas, since the group focused specifically on damaged properties and were constrained by the active firefight.

Nonetheless, the nonprofit’s findings help tie together growing evidence of zone zero’s effectiveness from tests in the lab — aimed at identifying the pathways fire can use to enter a home — with the real-world analyses of which measures protected homes in wildfires, Gollner said.

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A recent study from Gollner looking at more than 47,000 structures in five major California fires (which did not include the Eaton and Palisades fires) found that of the properties that removed vegetation from zone zero, 37% survived, compared with 20% that did not.

Once a fire spills from the wildlands into an urban area, homes become the primary fuel. When a home catches fire, it increases the chance nearby homes burn, too. That is especially true when homes are tightly packed.

When looking at California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection data for the entirety of the two fires, the insurance team found that “hardened” homes in Altadena and the Palisades that had noncombustable roofs, fire-resistant siding, double-pane windows and closed eaves survived undamaged at least 66% of the time, if they were at least 20 feet away from other structures.

But when the distance was less than 10 feet, only 45% of the hardened homes escaped with no damage.

“The spacing between structures, it’s the most definitive way to differentiate what survives and what doesn’t,” said Roy Wright, president and chief executive of the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. At the same time, said Wright, “it’s not feasible to change that.”

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Looking at steps that residents are more likely to be able to take, the insurance nonprofit found that the best approach is for homeowners to apply however many home hardening and defensible space measures that they can. Each one can shave a few percentage points off the risk of a home burning, and combined, the effect can be significant.

As for zone zero, the insurance team found a number of examples of how vegetation and flammable materials near a home could aid the destruction of a property.

At one home, embers appeared to have ignited some hedges a few feet away from the structure. That heat was enough to shatter a single pane window, creating the perfect opportunity for embers to enter and burn the house from the inside out. It miraculously survived.

At others, embers from the blazes landed on trash and recycling bins close to the houses, sometimes burning holes through the plastic lids and igniting the material inside. In one instance, the fire in the bin spread to a nearby garage door, but the house was spared.

Wooden decks and fences were also common accomplices that helped embers ignite a structure.

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California’s current zone zero draft regulations take some of those risks into account. They prohibit wooden fences within the first five feet of a home; the state’s zone zero committee is also considering whether to prohibit virtually all vegetation in the zone or to just limit it (regardless, well-maintained trees are allowed).

On the other hand, the draft regulations do not prohibit keeping trash bins in the zone, which the committee determined would be difficult to enforce. They also do not mandate homeowners replace wooden decks.

The controversy around the draft regulations center around the proposal to remove virtually all healthy vegetation, including shrubs and grasses, from the zone.

Critics argue that, given the financial burden zone zero would place on homeowners, the state should instead focus on measures with lower costs and a significant proven benefit.

“A focus on vegetation is misguided,” said David Lefkowith, president of the Mandeville Canyon Assn.

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At its most recent zone zero meeting, the Board of Forestry and Fire Protection directed staff to further research the draft regulations’ affordability.

“As the Board and subcommittee consider which set of options best balance safety, urgency, and public feasibility, we are also shifting our focus to implementation and looking to state leaders to identify resources for delivering on this first-in-the-nation regulation,” Tony Andersen, executive officer of the board, said in a statement. “The need is urgent, but we also want to invest the time necessary to get this right.”

Home hardening and defensible space are just two of many strategies used to protect lives and property. The insurance team suspects that many of the close calls they studied in the field — homes that almost burned but didn’t — ultimately survived thanks to firefighters who stepped in. Wildfire experts also recommend programs to prevent ignitions in the first place and to manage wildlands to prevent intense spread of a fire that does ignite.

For Wright, the report is a reminder of the importance of community. The fate of any individual home is tied to that of those nearby — it takes a whole neighborhood hardening their homes and maintaining their lawns to reach herd immunity protection against fire’s contagious spread.

“When there is collective action, it changes the outcomes,” Wright said. “Wildfire is insidious. It doesn’t stop at the fence line.”

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