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The Death of Competition in American Elections

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The Death of Competition in American Elections

President Trump’s return to Washington has tested the bounds of presidential power and set off alarms among Democrats, historians and legal scholars who are warning that the country’s democratic order is under threat.

But a close review of the 2024 election shows just how undemocratic the country’s legislative bodies already are.

After decades of gerrymandering and political polarization, a vast majority of members of Congress and state legislatures did not face competitive general elections last year.

Instead, they were effectively elected through low-turnout or otherwise meaningless primary contests. Vanishingly few voters cast a ballot in those races, according to a New York Times analysis of more than 9,000 congressional and state legislative primary elections held last year. On average, just 57,000 people voted for politicians in U.S. House primaries who went on to win the general election — a small fraction of the more than 700,000 Americans each of those winners now represents.

Increasingly, members of Congress are not even facing primary challenges. About a third of the current members of the House ran unopposed in their primary. All but 12 of those districts were “safe” seats, meaning 124 House members essentially faced no challenge to their election.

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The absence of primaries is even more striking in state legislatures. More than three-quarters of those primary races in 2024 were uncontested, according to voting data from The Associated Press.

Lawmakers who do face primaries are often left beholden to a small number of ideologically aligned, fiercely partisan voters — a group all too willing to drag elected representatives to the fringes and to punish them for compromise with the other side.

“Most members of both parties, liberal and conservative, they’re more worried about losing their primary than losing the general election,” said Haley Barbour, a onetime aide to President Ronald Reagan and a former chair of the Republican National Committee.

Competition has been on the decline in elections for both Congress and state legislatures over the past century, according to academic studies. But the meager number of competitive elections in 2024 points to a problem that is far from being fixed, and may be growing worse.

This reality has helped Mr. Trump expand his ranks of loyal lawmakers in Congress and crush nearly all dissent in his party. In recent months, he and his allies have repeatedly wielded the threat of primary challenges to keep Republican lawmakers toeing the Trump line on issues like federal funding and the president’s cabinet nominations.

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But the fear of a primary challenge can also twist local politics, where state power brokers and well-funded interest groups can push lawmakers to take broadly unpopular positions.

For example, in Idaho, where just four out of 105 state legislative races were competitive in November, lawmakers declined for six years to consider expanding access to Medicaid. When the issue finally got on the ballot in 2018, six in 10 voters endorsed it.

The lack of competition in elections has contributed to Americans’ cratering trust in government. A recent Times/Ipsos poll found that 88 percent of adults believed the political system was broken and that 72 percent saw the government as mostly for elites. Just 25 percent viewed government as mostly working for the good of the country.

“They’ve lost track of their voters,” Rory Duncan, 65, a Republican and a retired military veteran from Washington County, Md., said of his local government. “They’ve gerrymandered everything. We used to have a Republican, but they’ve gerrymandered it so much that there’s no way a Republican can get elected.”

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Far fewer Americans vote in primaries than in general elections. Last year, roughly 30 million voters cast a primary ballot in a congressional election (that figure does not include Louisiana, which has a unique primary method). The total turnout in the general election was more than 156 million.

Uncontested and low-turnout primaries plague both red and blue states. In Georgia, a battleground controlled largely by Republicans, 10 of the state’s 14 members of the U.S. House did not face a primary challenge. In deep-blue New York, 21 of the state’s 26 House members ran unopposed in their primary.

Incumbency still gives politicians a huge advantage come election season. But incumbents are increasingly tempting targets for primary challenges because those races are largely ignored — making it easier to mount an outsider campaign that targets a few faithful voters.

Of the 59 House members who have lost re-election contests since 2020, nearly half — 28 — were defeated in primaries. In state legislatures, more incumbent lawmakers lost re-election in the primaries than in the general election last year, according to the political database Ballotpedia.

“One thing incumbents worry about is that it’s pretty easy for someone who doesn’t like you to pull together a super PAC and get money,” said Robert G. Boatright, an elections scholar at Clark University, in Worcester, Mass., who in 2013 literally wrote the book on congressional primaries.

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Two decades ago, Mr. Boatright said, incumbents lost primaries because of scandal, age or national issues that overrode local loyalties. Today, they are felled by ideological opponents or issue-oriented interest groups often backed by wealthy patrons or legions of small donors with few ties to the races they are financing.

For much of the 2010s, one of the most powerful forces in Texas politics was a group called Empower Texans, the political project of a handful of oil-and-gas billionaires. The group’s political action committee poured millions into replacing more moderate Texas Republican politicians with social conservatives, generally by backing insurgents in primary races.

Though the group’s track record was spotty, Texas politics today is dominated by right-wing leaders, like Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who were early beneficiaries of its millions.

On the left, groups like Justice Democrats have had an outsize impact by almost exclusively backing more progressive working-class candidates against more traditional Democrats in a relative handful of carefully chosen primary contests. The group’s first slate of candidates in 2018, funded largely with small contributions from donors nationwide, included Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democratic Socialist who ousted a 10-term incumbent in that year’s primary and who has since become one of the most prominent House Democrats.

While the Justice Democrats believe they are pushing the party’s centrist policies to the left, extremism is not simply a matter of liberals versus conservatives, according to the group’s communications director, Usamah Andrabi. “Our primaries are not left versus right. They’re bottom versus top,” he said. “If we have to scare corporate politicians into fighting for working people, then they should be scared.”

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Nevertheless, Steven Rogers, an expert on state politics at Saint Louis University, in Missouri, said politicians who edged closer to the political fringes were less likely to face primary challenges.

“It’s becoming increasingly clear that over time, more extreme candidates are winning at both state legislative and congressional levels,” he said.

Even contested primary elections can sometimes be a mirage, offering little threat to an incumbent or to the candidate in a state’s dominant party.

Michael Podhorzer, a strategist and the former political director of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., recently analyzed election data to determine how many state legislative primaries last year were competitive and “meaningful” — decided by 10 percentage points or fewer, and with the winner prevailing in the general election.

He found that in the 35 states that held elections for both state legislative chambers last year, just 287 of more than 4,600 primaries met that definition.

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That leaves many voters without real representation: The districts that did not have meaningful primaries or general elections last year have roughly 158 million citizens, Mr. Podhorzer said, while those with meaningful primaries have only about 10 million.

Experts are quick to point out that beyond gerrymandering, the political “sorting” of like-minded voters moving into the same communities has exacerbated the lack of competition.

Linda Sacripanti, 58, a Democrat who lives in the deep-red northern panhandle of West Virginia, has experienced both of these political realities.

Participating in primary elections, she says, simply means that “I have some choice in which Democrat is going to lose.”

But for roughly 20 years, Ms. Sacripanti, who works in sales, lived in North Carolina, near Charlotte. She recalled voting for Jeff Jackson in Democratic state legislative primaries, when Mr. Jackson represented a deeply blue district in the State Senate. He parlayed that into a run for Congress in 2022, winning a similarly blue seat by 18 points.

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Charlotte itself is pretty, pretty blue, so my vote had even more weight during the primaries,” Ms. Sacripanti said. “So I do think that it mattered.”

In early 2024, Republicans in North Carolina won a legal challenge that allowed them to redraw the congressional and state legislative maps, wiping away Mr. Jackson’s district and effectively forcing him to resign (he is now the state’s attorney general). Last year, only 10 of the state’s 170 legislative seats had a meaningful primary, including just a single State Senate seat out of 50, according to data from Mr. Podhorzer.

“It was just, ‘Change up the districts and get him the heck out of there,’” Ms. Sacripanti said. “When you look up ‘gerrymander’ in the dictionary, it goes right to North Carolina.”

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Video: Democrats Press Noem on Harsh Immigration Tactics

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Video: Democrats Press Noem on Harsh Immigration Tactics

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Democrats Press Noem on Harsh Immigration Tactics

Some Democratic lawmakers pressed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics during a hearing on Thursday.

“Madam Secretary, your incompetence and your inability to truthfully carry out your duties of secretary of Homeland Security — if you’re not fired, will you resign?” “Sir, I will consider your asking me to resign as an endorsement of my work. Thank you very much.” “Secretary Noem, Trump administration — you’re going after the worst of the worst criminals, and we agree with you. The problem is, 70 percent of the people you’ve arrested have no criminal record. You’re going after noncriminal immigrants, U.S. citizens and permanent legal residents.” “Madam Secretary, you and the gentleman from N.C.T.C. referenced the unfortunate accident that occurred with National Guardsmen being killed.” “Do you think that was an unfortunate accident?” “I mean —” “It was a terrorist attack.” “Wait, wait. Look, I’ll get it straight. Then you can —” “He shot our National Guardsmen in the head.” “It was an unfortunate situation, but you blamed it solely on Joe Biden. Trump administration, D.H.S., your D.H.S. approved the asylum application.”

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Some Democratic lawmakers pressed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics during a hearing on Thursday.

By Jorge Mitssunaga

December 11, 2025

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The Speaker’s Lobby: What Congress’ December script means for healthcare next year

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The Speaker’s Lobby: What Congress’ December script means for healthcare next year

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This December on Capitol Hill appears to follow a familiar script.

There’s a deadline for Congress to act on (insert issue here). And if lawmakers don’t move by Jan. 1, then (insert consequence here). So, everyone on Capitol Hill clamors over pathways to finish (given issue). Lawmakers and staff are at the end of their wits. Everyone is worried about Congress successfully fixing the problem and getting everyone home for the holidays.

There’s always the concern that Congress will emerge as The Grinch, pilfering Whoville of Christmas toys.

But lawmakers often wind up toiling with the diligence and efficiency of Santa’s elves, plowing through late-night, overnight and weekend sessions, usually finishing (insert issue here) in the St. Nick of time.

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THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO THURSDAY’S BIG SENATE VOTES ON HEALTHCARE

This pattern is always the same. With few variations.

This parliamentary dance of the sugar plum fairies frequently centers on deadlines for government funding, the debt ceiling and tax policy. Such was the case when the Senate passed the first version of Obamacare on Christmas Eve morning in 2009. Republicans skated on thin ice to finish their tax reform package in December 2017.

Lawmakers moved expeditiously to approve a defense policy bill in late 2020, then made sure they had just enough time on the calendar to override President Trump’s veto of the legislation before the very end of the 116th Congress in early January 2021.

The deadlines sometimes veer into the political. There was a crush to finish articles of impeachment on the House floor for both presidents Clinton and Trump in December 1998 and December 2019, respectively.

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And, so, after everyone got this fall’s government shutdown worked out of their systems, lawmakers were far from prepared to address its root cause. Democrats refused to fund the government unless Congress addressed spiking healthcare premiums. Those premiums shoot up on Jan. 1. And no one has built enough consensus to pass a bill before the end of the year.

Yet.

This December is playing out like many others on Capitol Hill. (Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images)

But it’s only mid-December. And everyone knows that the congressional Christmas legislative spirit can be slow to take hold. Some of that holiday magic may have officially arrived Thursday afternoon after the Senate incinerated competing Republican and Democratic healthcare plans.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., pushed a three-year extension of the current Obamacare subsidies with no built-in reforms.

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“This is going to require that Democrats come off a position they know is an untenable one and sit down in a serious way and work with Republicans,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said of the Democratic proposal.

Thune characterized the Democrats’ gambit as “a political messaging exercise.”

MODERATE REPUBLICANS STAGE OBAMACARE REBELLION AS HEALTH COST FRUSTRATIONS ERUPT IN HOUSE

Republicans even mulled not putting forth a healthcare plan at all. It was the group of Senate Democrats who ultimately helped break a filibuster to reopen the government last month that demanded a healthcare-related vote (not a fix, but a vote) in December. So, that’s all Thune would commit to.

“If Republicans just vote no on a Democrat proposal, we’ll let the premiums go up and Republicans don’t offer anything. What message is that going to send?” asked Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. “I know what people in Missouri will think. They’ll look at that, and they’ll say, ‘Well, you guys don’t do anything. You’ve just let my premiums go up.’”

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It may yet come to that.

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., questioned what message “no” votes by his party would send. (Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

So, there’s a holiday healthcare affordability crisis.

“People are looking now at exactly what’s ahead for them, and they’re very, very frightened,” said Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee.

But most Senate Republicans coalesced around a plan drafted by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Michael Crapo, R-Idaho, and Senate Health Committee Chairman Bill Cassidy, R-La. The bill would not renew Obamacare subsidies. Instead, it would allow people to deposit money into a healthcare savings account and shop around for coverage.

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“Our plan will reduce premiums by 1% and save taxpayers money,” boasted Crapo. “In contrast, the Democrats’ temporary COVID bonuses do not lower costs or premiums at all.”

With skyrocketing prices, Republicans are desperate to do something, even if it’s a figgy pudding leaf, as they face competitive races next year.

COLLINS, MORENO UNVEIL OBAMACARE PLAN AS REPUBLICANS SEARCH FOR SOLUTION TO EXPIRING SUBSIDIES

“It has nothing to do with me. It has everything to do with people in Ohio and across America who need to be able to afford access to healthcare,” said Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio.

Gov. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, appointed Husted to succeed Vice President Vance after he left the Senate. So, 2026 will be Husted’s first time on the ballot for the Senate.

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There was some chatter that Republicans might allow for a limited extension of the Obamacare aid so long as Democrats agreed to abortion restrictions in exchange.

“Off the table. They know it damn well,” thundered Schumer.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said abortion restrictions in exchange for a limited extension are “off the table.” (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

So, the competing plans needed 60 yeas to clear a procedural hurdle. But that also meant that both plans were destined to fail without solving the problem before the end of the year.

“We have to have something viable to vote on before we get out of here,” lamented Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.

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That’s why some Christmas congressional calendar magic often compels lawmakers to find a last-minute solution.

“Every legislator up here would like to be home for Christmas,” said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan. “That pressure is what forces us to come together.”

CONGRESS FACES HOLIDAY CRUNCH AS HEALTH CARE FIX COLLIDES WITH SHRINKING CALENDAR

We’ll know soon if everyone buckles down to harness soaring premiums after days of political posturing.

“This should have been done in July or August. So, we are up against a deadline,” said Hawley.

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And procrastination by lawmakers may yet do them in.

“Healthcare is unbelievably complicated,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D. “You’re not going to reform it and bring down costs overnight.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is promising a separate healthcare bill. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is now promising a separate, still unwritten healthcare bill for the floor in the coming days.

“You’re going to see a package come together that will be on the floor next week that will actually reduce premiums for 100% of Americans,” said Johnson.

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But it’s unclear if Congress can pass anything.

“I think there’s a fear of working with Democrats. There’s a fear (of) taking action without the blessing of the President,” said Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev.

GOP WRESTLES WITH OBAMACARE FIX AS TRUMP LOOMS OVER SUBSIDY FIGHT

That’s why it’s possible Congress could skip town for the holidays without solving the problem.

“It will be used like a sledgehammer on us a year from now,” said Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.

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Not a great message for Republicans — especially on affordability — before the midterms.

“If there’s no vote, that’ll run contrary to what the majority of the House wants and what the vast majority of the American people want,” said Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif.

Rep. Kevin Kiley said a no vote runs contrary to the will of the American people. (Scott Strazzante/Pool/Getty Images)

That political concern may be just enough to force the sides to find some Christmas magic and address the issue before the holidays.

That’s one Yuletide script in Congress.

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But there’s a script to not fixing things, too.

If Congress leaves town, every communications director on Capitol Hill will author a press release accusing the other side of channeling Ebenezer Scrooge, declaring “Bah humbug!” or dumping a lump of coal in the stockings of voters on Christmas.

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That’s the script.

And every year, it sleighs me.

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Commentary: The U.S. Senate is a mess. He wants to fix it, from the inside

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Commentary: The U.S. Senate is a mess. He wants to fix it, from the inside

To say the U.S. Senate has grown dysfunctional is like suggesting water is wet or the nighttime sky is dark.

The institution that fancies itself “the world’s greatest deliberative body” is supposed to serve as a cooling saucer that tempers the more hotheaded House, applying weight and wisdom as it addresses the Great Issues of Our Time. Instead, it’s devolved into an unsightly mess of gridlock and partisan hackery.

Part of that is owing to the filibuster, one of the Senate’s most distinctive features, which over roughly the last decade has been abused and misused to a point it’s become, in the words of congressional scholar Norman J. Ornstein, a singular “weapon of mass obstruction.”

Democrat Jeff Merkley, the junior U.S. senator from Oregon, has spent years on a mostly one-man crusade aimed at reforming the filibuster and restoring a bit of sunlight and self-discipline to the chamber.

In 2022, Merkley and his allies came within two votes of modifying the filibuster for voting rights legislation. He continues scouring for support for a broader overhaul.

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“This is essential for people to see what their representatives are debating and then have the opportunity to weigh in,” said Merkley, speaking from the Capitol after a vote on the Senate floor.

“Without the public being able to see the obstruction,” he said, “they [can’t] really respond to it.”

What follows is a discussion of congressional process, but before your eyes glaze over, you should understand that process is what determines the way many things are accomplished — or not — in Washington, D.C.

The filibuster, which has changed over time, involves how long senators are allowed to speak on the Senate floor. Unlike the House, which has rules limiting debate, the Senate has no restrictions, unless a vote is taken to specifically end discussion and bring a matter to resolution. More on that in a moment.

In the broadest sense, the filibuster is a way to protect the interests of a minority of senators, as well as their constituents, by allowing a small but determined number of lawmakers — or even a lone member — to prevent a vote by commanding the floor and talking nonstop.

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Perhaps the most famous, and certainly the most romanticized, version of a filibuster took place in the film “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.” The fictitious Sen. Jefferson Smith, played by James Stewart, talks to the point of exhausted collapse as a way of garnering national notice and exposing political corruption.

The filibustering James Stewart received an Oscar nomination for lead actor for his portrayal of Sen. Jefferson Smith in the 1939 classic “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.”

(From the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences)

In the Frank Capra classic, the good guy wins. (It’s Hollywood, after all.) In real life, the filibuster has often been used for less noble purpose, most notably the decades-long thwarting of civil rights legislation.

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A filibuster used to be a rare thing, its power holstered for all but the most important issues. But in recent years that’s changed, drastically. The filibuster — or, rather, the threat of a filibuster — has become almost routine.

In part, that’s because of how easy it’s become to gum up the Senate.

Members no longer need to hold the floor and talk nonstop, testing not just the power of their argument but their physical mettle and bladder control. These days it’s enough for a lawmaker to simply state their intention to filibuster. Typically, legislation is then laid aside as the Senate moves on to other business.

That pain-free approach has changed the very nature of the filibuster, Ornstein said, and transformed how the Senate operates, much to its detriment.

The burden is “supposed to be on the minority to really put itself … on the line to generate a larger debate” — a la the fictive Jefferson Smith — “and hope during the course of it that they can turn opinions around,” said Ornstein, an emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “What’s happened is the burden has shifted to the majority [to break a filibuster], which is a bastardization of what the filibuster is supposed to be about.”

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It takes 60 votes to end a filibuster, by invoking cloture, to use Senate terminology. That means the passage of legislation now effectively requires a supermajority of the 100-member Senate. (There are workarounds, which, for instance, allowed President Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill to pass on a 51-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaker.)

The filibuster gives outsized power to the minority.

To offer but two examples, there is strong public support for universal background checks for gun buyers and greater transparency in campaign finance. Both issues have majority backing in the Senate. No matter. Legislation to achieve each has repeatedly been filibustered to death.

That’s where Merkley would step in.

He would not eliminate the filibuster, a prerogative jealously guarded by members of both parties. (In a rare show of independence, Republican senators rejected President Trump’s call to scrap the filibuster to end the recent government shutdown.)

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Rather, Merkley would eliminate what’s come to be called “the silent filibuster” and force lawmakers to actually take the floor and publicly press their case until they prevail, give up or physically give out. “My reform is based on the premise that the minority should have a voice,” he said, “but not a veto.”

Forcing senators to stand and deliver would make it more difficult to filibuster, ending its promiscuous overuse, Merkley suggested, and — ideally— engaging the public in a way privately messaging fellow senators — I dissent! — does not.

“Because it’s so visible publicly,” Merkley said, “the American citizens get to weigh in, and there’s consequences. They may frame you as a hero for your obstruction, or a bum, and that has a reflection in the next election.”

The power to repair itself rests entirely within the Senate, where lawmakers set their own rules and can change them as they see fit. (Nice work, if you can get it.)

The filibuster has been tweaked before. In 1917, senators adopted the rule allowing cloture if a two-thirds majority voted to end debate. In 1975, the Senate reduced that number to three-fifths of the Senate, or 60 members.

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More recently, Democrats changed the rules to prevent filibustering most presidential nominations. Republicans extended that to include Supreme Court nominees.

Reforming the filibuster is hardly a cure-all. The Senate has debased itself by ceding much of its authority and becoming little more than an arm of the Trump White House. Fixing that requires more than a procedural revamp.

But forcing lawmakers to stand their ground, argue their case and seek to rally voters instead of lifting a pinkie and grinding the Senate to a halt? That’s something worth talking about.

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