Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, said on Sunday that his state’s gubernatorial race this fall will be the first “bellwether” test for the new Trump administration and a measure of a “Democratic comeback.”
Newsweek has reached out to the communications teams at the Democratic and Republican national committees for comment via email on Sunday.
Why It Matters
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding gubernatorial races this year and will be the first two major state elections held after President Donald Trump’s second term.
Virginia’s election may be seen as a “bellwether,” signaling political trends and voter sentiment. For Republicans, the elections will be a test of whether they can retain some of the voters they won back in 2024. Meanwhile, it will also be a key gauge for Democrats’ messaging as they seek to regain ground over the next few years.
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What To Know
On Sunday, Kaine told CNN’s State of the Union co-host Jake Tapper that Virginia’s upcoming gubernatorial race “will be the first bellwether test of a Democratic comeback and I’m feeling really, really good about that right now.”
His comments came after Tapper asked Kaine about the state of the Democratic Party and politics in Kaine’s home state, to which the senator said: “In Virginia, we have gone from one of the most ruby red states in the country to now having put electoral votes behind Democrats five elections in a row. I just won my reelection by a sizable margin against Donald Trump’s handpicked Republican opponent.” Kaine won a third term last November, beating out Trump-endorsed challenger Hung Cao.
Virginia’s gubernatorial elections tend to sway based on the party in the White House, with Democrats typically winning when a Republican is in office. Republican Glenn Youngkin became governor in 2021 under President Joe Biden, and Democrat Ralph Northam won during Trump’s first presidency.
Kaine said on Sunday that Youngkin won the race “by 1.8 percent—the last two Republicans that won the governorship in Virginia won by comfortable double digits. Our governor is Republican, he ran during a very good year to be a Republican, and he won barely.”
Republican governors Bob McDonnell and Jim Gilmore won their respective races by over 17 percent margin and 13 percent margin.
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Youngkin is term limited at the end of the year, so the race will be an open contest that could serve as a test of sentiment towards Trump and the Democratic Party. On Saturday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) elected Ken Martin as its new chairperson.
Kaine, who served as Hillary Clinton’s running mate against Trump in the 2016 presidential election, said that he feels “really good about our chances” in the gubernatorial race, adding that “we just took both houses of the state legislature, we’ve got a great candidate for governor.” The Virginia State House and Senate are both controlled by slim Democratic majorities.
Who Are Virginia’s Gubernatorial Candidates?
While the party primaries on June 17 will determine the nominees, each party appears to have an early favorite: former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. If either of them wins, they would become the state’s first female governor.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 registered Virginia voters conducted from January 6 to 8 found Spanberger edging 1 percentage point ahead of Earle-Sears, 42 to 41 percent. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, found 13 percent of voters were undecided and 4 percent were supporting someone else.
Newsweek reached out to Spanberger and Earle-Sears for comment via email on Sunday.
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Currently, no other Democrats have publicly announced their campaigns, though Representative Bobby Scott has not ruled out a run, The Virginia Pilot reported in January. Former gubernatorial candidate Merle Rutledge is also running in the GOP primary, but Earle-Sears is viewed as the party’s frontrunner.
Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, is seen during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on January 23. Inset: President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on… Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, is seen during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on January 23. Inset: President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on January 31 in Washington, D.C.
Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images) (AP Photo/Evan Vucci
What People Are Saying
John Feehery, partner at EFB Advocacy, previously told Newsweek in an email: “Virginia is going to be tough because it is really a blue state despite its purple state veneer, more so because Trump wants to dramatically reduce the government workforce…So I don’t think Republicans are going to do that well, but if they do, it means we had a true realignment election in 2024.”
Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek in December: “Both the New Jersey and Virginia contests offer the Democrats a chance to reset their message as they look to rebuild their political coalition.”
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in part last month: “Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out.”
What Happens Next
The deadlocked race will be determined on November 4, 2025.
We’re highlighting the many threads that make Virginia so special
As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States and Virginia, we’re embarking on a journey to celebrate the rich history of the place we call home. (WSLS 10)
Virginia is filled with so much history just waiting to be explored. As we mark the 250th anniversary of the United States and Virginia, we’re celebrating this milestone with a new series: Patchwork 250.
The series will highlight the many threads that make Virginia so special and celebrate every patch (whether that’s a remarkable person, an unforgettable location or a memorable event).
As this new initiative gets underway, we’d love to hear from you. Share your favorite pieces of history and be a part of Virginia’s ongoing story.
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Using Pin It or the form below, let us know: what’s a unique piece of history from your community that you think more people should know about?
Click here for more details.
Copyright 2025 by WSLS 10 – All rights reserved.
About the Author
Jazmine Otey headshot
Jazmine Otey
Jazmine Otey joined the 10 News team in February 2021.
A fatal collision between a motorcycle and a pickup truck on Thursday evening has claimed a life and prompted a significant road closure in South Reno.
The Nevada Highway Patrol (NHP) responded to reports of the crash at approximately 5:29 p.m. on February 26. The incident occurred on northbound South Virginia Street, just north of Damonte Ranch Parkway.
According to the Nevada State Police, the rider of the motorcycle, an adult male, was pronounced dead at the scene by emergency medical personnel. The driver of the pickup truck remained on-site, though no further details regarding other injuries or the cause of the crash have been released. Northbound South Virginia Street: Completely shut down from Damonte Ranch Parkway to Bishop Manogue Drive.
Southbound South Virginia Street: Open, but expect “rubbernecking” delays as drivers pass the emergency vehicles. Officials expect the northbound lanes to remain closed until at least 11:30 p.m. as the NHP Highway Patrol Division completes their investigation.
A new effort is being led by Commonwealth Attorney Krystyn Reid, with support from Sen. Danny Diggs to help missing persons. (Ron Lach/Pexels.com)
HAMPTON ROADS— A proposed initiative known as The Guardian Network seeks to strengthen coordination and public access to verified information when children, seniors, and vulnerable adults go missing in Virginia.
The effort is being led by Commonwealth Attorney Krystyn Reid, with support from Sen. Danny Diggs through a budget amendment to SB30. If the amendment passes, development would move forward through the Virginia State Police.
Reid said the idea grew from her years of public service.
“The difference between politics and public service is simple,” Reid said. “One is what you say. The other is what you do.”
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Reid began her career representing domestic violence survivors and said she witnessed firsthand how quickly families can be thrown into crisis.
“When someone does not make it home, that is a family’s worst moment,” Reid said. “The Guardian Network comes from a belief that we can strengthen coordination in those first critical hours and better protect vulnerable communities.”
The network is designed to complement existing alert systems such as AMBER, Silver, Ashanti and CODI alerts. Participation would be voluntary for both families and the public.
“It does not replace them. It reinforces them,” Reid said. “What we lack is one centralized, accessible place to see verified information. This is about coordination and clarity.”
Currently, information can be fragmented, she said, making it harder for families and communities to respond effectively.
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“Families in crisis should not have to search multiple platforms,” Reid said. “Public safety requires structure. Our response should be organized and accessible.”
The United Way of the Virginia Peninsula has expressed support for the initiative, citing its alignment with the organization’s mission to improve lives by advancing education, financial stability and health.
“Children are the highest age demographic experiencing eviction and homelessness, which creates unique vulnerabilities including separation, exploitation and trafficking,” said Charvalla West of United Way of the Virginia Peninsula. “Seniors face increasing isolation, housing instability and caregiver strain in what many describe as the ‘Silver Tsunami’ of a rapidly aging population.”
She said the organization supports The Guardian Network because it strengthens coordination during the most critical moments when vulnerable individuals go missing.
“The Guardian Network aligns directly with our work to stabilize families and protect vulnerable communities,” West said. “When vulnerabilities are reduced, safety increases.”
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United Way collaborates with certified partner agencies across the Virginia Peninsula that focus on homelessness prevention, youth development, domestic violence response, aging services and housing repair. Those organizations would continue serving in their core roles, providing safe housing, trauma-informed care, mentorship, caregiver support and case management, while the network enhances coordination and awareness.
“The Guardian Network enhances coordination and awareness, while nonprofits provide the direct relational support that protects individuals before, during and after crisis events,” West said.
The concept also includes a second phase of development that would establish a standing advisory committee composed of survivors, impacted family members, nonprofit leaders, victim advocates and public safety professionals. A third phase would focus on identifying and allocating resources to support coordinated response efforts in collaboration with law enforcement, including ensuring necessary logistical supplies are available during active situations.
The immediate focus is Virginia. If successful, supporters say the model could be scalable to other states seeking to strengthen coordination in missing-person cases.
Reid said the goal is clear.
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“A stronger safety net. Better coordination. And helping bring loved ones home,” she said. “Everyone deserves to come home.”
