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Opinion: Biden delivered a new 'Roaring '20s.' Watch Trump try to take the credit.

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Opinion: Biden delivered a new 'Roaring '20s.' Watch Trump try to take the credit.

Poor Donald Trump. Twice elected president only to have to clean up the economic messes left to him by Democrats.

In 2016, he groused about inheriting “a disaster” from Barack Obama. On Thursday, just four days before his second inauguration, he sent out a fundraising email claiming for the gazillionth time, “During my first term, we made the economy stronger than anyone ever thought possible. And then, Joe Biden came in and destroyed it.”

Except that — no surprise — neither Trump claim is true.

Opinion Columnist

Jackie Calmes

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Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.

In fact, it was Obama and Biden who were bequeathed messes, from former Republican presidents George W. Bush and Trump himself. Obama took office after what Ben Bernanke, then the Federal Reserve chair, called “the worst financial crisis in global history, including the Great Depression.” And four years ago, Biden confronted a nation mired in a pandemic and economic distress exacerbated by Trump’s response. Even Trump’s pre-pandemic economy, as good as it was, was far from “the greatest economy in the history of the world,” as he still contends. By various metrics, it was either no better or not as good as under Obama.

As for the handoff in 2017: “Trump inherits Obama boom,” said one headline ahead of his inauguration. And now he’s inheriting even better. “Biden is leaving a stellar economy,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, wrote as 2024 ended.

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Zandi expanded in October: “The economy is at full-employment, no more and no less. Wage growth is strong, and given big productivity gains, it is consistent with low and stable inflation. One couldn’t paint a prettier picture of the job market and broader economy.” In a letter to clients on Friday, UBS Financial Services declared this a new “Roaring ‘20s.”

And here’s another expert take that might come in handy while listening to Trump’s inaugural address Monday, should he resort to talk of “American carnage” as he did four years ago. Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, and Stephen Henriques, a fellow there, recently wrote, “As Trump bellows to crowds, ‘Are you better off economically than you were four years ago?’, the answer should be a loud YES!”

The problem for Biden, and for his replacement on Democrats’ losing 2024 ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris, many voters’ answer to that question was a loud “NO!”

For one thing, the pain of pandemic-spawned high inflation lingers in what Americans pay for groceries, goods and services. And yet, it’s worth establishing the facts as a baseline to counter what are sure to be Trump’s claims that he not only revived a destroyed economy but topped his own (nonexistent) world record.

The latest good news came Friday, when the International Monetary Fund forecast that the U.S. economy would grow faster this year than recently projected, given gains in employment and investment. The United States is buoying the global economy. “The big story is the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.

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But the fund’s forecast also echoed U.S. economists’ concerns that Trump’s agenda — more deficit-financed tax cuts, wholesale deregulation, across-the-board tariffs, immigration crackdowns and challenges to the Fed’s independence — could reignite inflation and add to the nation’s already unsustainable debt load.

In other words, Trump could break what’s not broken.

Inflation peaked at 9% at the midterm of the Biden administration, and as much as any issue, that helped elect Trump. It’s largely subsided, and good thing: After winning, Trump fessed up that, contrary to his campaign boasts, there’s not much he could do about inflation. “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” he told Time magazine.

What’s worse is that his proposed tariffs — “my favorite word,” says Trump — could raise costs for a typical family about $1,700 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. And U.S. trading partners could raise those costs even more if they retaliate with tariffs on American products: “Of course we will,” Canada’s foreign affairs minister, Melanie Joly, told CNN on Thursday.

Economic growth was 3.1% on an annual basis in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported, making 2024 “yet another shocker year in which the U.S. economy surprised to the upside,” as Axios put it. Last month the Fed cut interest rates for the third straight meeting, but indicated fewer reductions ahead amid the Trump-generated uncertainty over what’s coming. The unemployment rate is at 4.1%; it was 6.4% when Trump left office. Job growth in Biden’s final full month of December was a higher-than-expected 256,000 positions, and job openings exceeded the number of unemployed job seekers. In Trump’s first three years as president, before the pandemic, the number of U.S. jobs increased by nearly 6.7 million; Biden’s four-year total is nearly 17 million. And wage growth, though stymied initially by inflation, now is greater than under Trump.

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For all Trump’s talk of “drill, baby, drill,” energy production already is at a record high, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The number of Americans without health insurance is at an all-time low, though Republicans aren’t likely to renew the tax credits that helped make the reduction possible.

Biden used his farewell speech Wednesday for a pre-buttal to Trump’s inevitable attempts to usurp credit for good times — assuming they remain good. The outgoing president hailed the post-pandemic revival on his watch and suggested that the laws he got passed for infrastructure, clean energy and semiconductor investments would keep delivering: “The seeds are planted, and they’ll grow and they’ll bloom for decades to come.”

Zandi, the Moody’s economist, expects the United States economy to continue to lead the world: “Of course, this assumes there will be no policy errors going forward.” And then he added: “Hmmm…”

@jackiekcalmes

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Courts rejects bid to beef up policies issued by California’s home insurer of last resort

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Courts rejects bid to beef up policies issued by California’s home insurer of last resort

Retired nurse Nancy Reed has been through the ringer trying to get insurance for her home next to a San Diego County nature preserve.

First, she was dropped by her longtime carrier and forced onto the state’s insurer of last resort, the California FAIR Plan, which offers basic fire policies — something thousands of residents have experienced at the hands of fire-leery insurance companies.

But what she didn’t expect was how hard it would be to find the extra coverage she needed to augment her FAIR Plan policy, which doesn’t cover common perils such as water damage or liability if someone is injured on a property.

She secured the “difference-in-conditions” policies from two insurers, only to be dropped by both before finally finding another for her Escondido home.

“I’ve lived in this house for 25 years, and I went from a very fair price to ‘we’re not insuring you anymore’ — and I’ve had three different difference-in-conditions policies,” said Reed, 71, who is paying about $2,000 for 12 months of the extra coverage. “And I’m holding my breath to see if I will be renewed next year.”

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Now, a Department of Insurance regulation that would have required the FAIR plan to offer that additional coverage has been blocked by a state appeals court — leaving the plan’s customers to find that insurance in a market widely considered dysfunctional.

The court ruled earlier this month that the order would have forced the plan to offer liability insurance, which was not the intent of the Legislature when it established the plan in 1968 to offer essential insurance for those who couldn’t get it.

“We appreciate that the court confirmed the California FAIR Plan is designed and intended to operate as California’s insurer of last resort, providing basic property coverage when it cannot be obtained in the voluntary market,” said spokesperson Hilary McLean.

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara said he is “looking at all available options” following the decision. “I’ve been fighting so people can have access to all of the coverage the FAIR Plan is required by law to provide,” he said in a statement.

Lara has faced criticism from consumer advocates who’ve called for his resignation over his response to the state’s ongoing property insurance crisis.

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A FAIR Plan policy covers fires, lightning, smoke damage and internal explosions, as well as vandalism and some other hazards at an additional cost. But in addition to water damage and liability protection, it doesn’t cover such common perils as theft and the damage caused by trees falling on a house.

The demand for the additional coverage — commonly referred to as a “wrap-around” policy — has become even greater than in 2021 when Lara issued the order overturned on appeal.

The FAIR Plan at the time had about 160,000 active dwelling policies following a series of catastrophic wildfires, including the 2018 fire that nearly destroyed the mountain town of Paradise. By September, that number had grown to 646,000.

The insurance department lists less than two dozen companies that offer wrap-around policies, including major California home insurers such as Mercury and Farmers and a a number of smaller carriers.

Broker Dina Smith said that to find the coverage for her home insurance clients she needs to place about 90% of them with carriers not regulated by the state — with the combined coverage typically costing at least twice as much as a regular policy.

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“The [market] is very limited,” said Smith, a managing director at Gallagher.

Safeco has not written California wrap-around coverage since the beginning of the year and will begin non-renewing existing policies next month. Smith also said carriers are being selective, with the ones that offer the coverage often demanding exclusions, such as for certain types of water damage.

“If I’ve got a newer home with no prior claims … for liability losses, it’s going to be easy to write. If I get a home that is built in the 1950s that might still have galvanized pipes … that’s going to be a tough one,” she said.

Attorney Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a San Francisco consumer group, said the difference-in-conditions, or DIC, market is getting just as problematic for homeowners as the overall market.

“The market is not as strong as it needs to be … given how many people are in the FAIR Plan, and there aren’t as many DIC options — with the DIC companies being just as picky as the primary insurers,” she said.

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There is also confusion about the policies, she said. Her group is considering pushing for a law next year that would clearly label the coverage so consumers better understand what they are buying.

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Student Loan Borrowers in Default Could See Wages Garnished in Early 2026

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Student Loan Borrowers in Default Could See Wages Garnished in Early 2026

The Trump administration will begin to garnish the pay of student loan borrowers in January, the Department of Education said Tuesday, stepping up a repayment enforcement effort that began this year.

Beginning the week of Jan. 7, roughly 1,000 borrowers who are in default will receive notices informing them of their status, according to an email from the department. The number of notices will increase on a monthly basis.

The collection activities are “conducted only after student and parent borrowers have been provided sufficient notice and opportunity to repay their loans,” according to the email, which was unsigned.

The announcement comes as many Americans are already struggling financially, and the cost of living is top of mind. The wage garnishing could compound the effects on lower-income families contending with a stressed economy, employment concerns and health care premiums that are set to rise for millions of people.

The email did not contain any details about the nature of the garnishment, such as how much would be deducted from wages, but according to the government’s student aid website, up to 15 percent of a borrower’s take-home pay can be withheld. The government typically directs employers to withhold a certain amount, similar to a payroll tax.

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A borrower should be sent a notice of the government’s intent 30 days before the seizure begins, according to the website, StudentAid.gov.

The administration ended a five-year reprieve on student loan repayments in May, paving the way for forced collections — meaning tax refunds and other federal payments, like Social Security, could be withheld and applied toward debt payments.

That move ushered in the end of pandemic-era relief that began in March 2020, when payments were paused. More than 9 percent of total student debt reported between July and September was more than 90 days delinquent or in default, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In April, only one-third of the 38 million Americans who owed money for college or graduate school and should have been making payments actually were, according to government data.

“It’s going to be more painful as you move down the income distribution,” said Michael Roberts, a professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. But, he added, borrowers have to contend with the fact that they did take out money, even as government policies allowed many to put the loans at the back of their minds.

After several extensions by the Biden administration, payments resumed in October 2023, but borrowers were not penalized for defaulting until last year. About five million borrowers are in default, and millions more are expected to be close to missing payments.

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The government had signaled this year that it would send notices that could lead to the garnishing of a portion of a borrower’s paycheck. Being in collections and in default can damage credit scores.

The government garnished wages before the pandemic pause, said Betsy Mayotte, president of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors, which provides free advice for borrowers. But the 2020 collections pause was the first she was aware of, she said, and that may make the deductions more shocking for people who have not had to pay for years.

“There’s a lot of defaulted borrowers that think that there was a mistake made somewhere along the line, or the Department of Education forgot about them,” Ms. Mayotte said. “I think this is going to catch a lot of them off guard.”

The first day after a missed payment, a loan becomes delinquent. After a certain amount of time in delinquency, usually 270 days, the loan is considered in default — the kind of loan determines the time period. If someone defaults on a federal student loan, the entire balance becomes due immediately. Then the loan holder can begin collections, including on wages.

But there are options to reorganize the defaulted loans, including consolidation or rehabilitation, which requires making a certain number of consecutive payments determined by the holder.

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Often, people who default on debt owe the smallest amounts, said Constantine Yannelis, an economics professor at the University of Cambridge who researches U.S. student loans.

“They’re often dropouts or they went to two-year, for-profit colleges, and people who spent many, many years in schools, like doctors or lawyers, have very low default rates,” he said.

This year, millions of borrowers saw their credit scores drop after the pause on penalties was lifted. If someone does not earn an income, the government can take the person to court. But, practically speaking, a borrower’s credit score will plummet.

Dr. Yannelis added that a common reason people default was that they were not aware of the repayment options. There are plans that allow borrowers to pay 10 percent of their income rather than having 15 percent garnished, for example.

The whiplash policy changes around the time of the pandemic were “a terrible thing from a borrower-welfare perspective,” Dr. Yannelis said. “Policy uncertainty is really terrible for borrowers.”

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Kevin Costner’s western ‘Horizon’ faces more claims of unpaid fees

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Kevin Costner’s western ‘Horizon’ faces more claims of unpaid fees

In the midst of attempting to complete filming on his western anthology ”Horizon: An American Saga,” Kevin Costner is facing another legal dispute over the production.

On Monday, Western Costume Co. sued Costner and the production companies behind the epic western, claiming unpaid costume fees and damages to some of the clothing during the filming of the series’ second episode.

“The costumes are costly to replace if damaged or not returned,” states the complaint, which included copies of invoices for about $134,000 in costume rentals. “Without a reasonable basis for doing so and/or with reckless regard to the consequences, defendants failed to pay for the rented costumes and failed to return the costumes undamaged.”

Western Costume, the iconic business based in North Hollywood, is seeking to recover roughly $440,000, including legal fees, according to the lawsuit filed Monday in Los Angeles Superior Court.

A spokesperson for Costner did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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The lawsuit is the latest in a series of legal and financial problems that have dogged the sprawling western drama, which Costner directed, co-wrote, starred in and partially funded.

In May, United Costume Corp., sued the production, claiming $350,000 in unpaid fees for the first two chapters of “Horizon.” Two months later, the costume firm filed to dismiss the suit with prejudice.

In May, Devyn LaBella, a stunt performer on “Chapter 2,” sued the production for sexual discrimination, harassment and retaliation in Los Angeles Superior Court. LaBella alleged an unscripted rape scene was filmed without the presence of a contractually mandated intimacy coordinator.

In a motion filed in August to get the suit tossed, Costner said he had reviewed LaBella’s complaint and was “shocked at the false and misleading allegations she was making.”

In October, a Los Angeles Superior Court judge denied Costner’s anti-SLAPP motion to dismiss the case. The judge also denied LaBella’s claim that Costner had interfered with her civil rights through the use of intimidation or coercion with respect to her participation in the filming of a rape scene, but allowed several of her other claims to proceed.

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The case is pending.

The production is also facing an arbitration claim for alleged breaches in its co-financing agreement with its distributor New Line Cinema and City National Bank, “Horizon” bondholder, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

In June 2024, “Chapter 1” of the planned four-part series was released in theaters followed by a streaming broadcast on HBO Max, but it was largely panned by critics.

In its review, The Times described “Horizon” as “a massive boondoggle, a misguided and excruciatingly tedious cinematic experience.”

It failed at the box office, grossing just $38.8 million worldwide, on a reported $100 million budget.

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“Chapter 2” premiered at the Venice International Film Festival last September, but its theatrical release was pulled and remains indefinitely delayed, while the final two chapters remain in production or development, according to IMDb.

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