It is not “taxpayer relief” to use previously paid taxes to pay help pay for budget shortfalls caused by a “tax cut.”

This month, the state Revenue Estimating Conference reported new estimates showing Iowa revenue will drop by $602 million (6.2%) compared with fiscal year 2024. Further, state revenue is expected to drop by a further $428 million (4.7%) in fiscal year 2026, which begins July 1, 2025. Republicans attribute the fall in estimated revenue to the start of their 3.8% flat income tax rate next year. Republicans have promoted reducing the state income tax — which Sen. Jack Whitver derisively calls a “confiscation” — down to zero.

But Republicans have amassed a $2 billion budget surplus, $961 million in its reserve accounts, and $3.75 billion in the Taxpayer Relief Fund, which was supposed to be used to reduce taxes. All told, about $6.75 billion. One good question is: Why?

More: Iowa will have millions less for its next state budget than it spent this year. Here’s why:

Republicans enacted a long-term commitment to reduced revenues due to the flax tax at an extremely volatile time during and after the COVID-19 epidemic. The federal government’s $5.2 trillion infusion into states and their economies was the largest fiscal stimulus package ever. One-time federal financial supports reduced state costs and artificially bolstered revenues. Recently, Pew Charitable Trusts observed: “The combination of temporary funds propping up budgets and the adoption of new recurring expenditures or tax cuts has left many states in a precarious position. Policymakers now must grapple with the possibility that their states’ finances are structurally imbalanced and vulnerable to deficits as one-time funds dry up but new commitments remain.”

Not wanting to “waste a good crisis,” as they say, Republicans rushed to enact a flat tax during an extremely uncertain economic time when the level of likely future tax revenues was cloudy at best.

As the COVID economic booster begins to fade, several states have experienced significant decreases in tax revenue as compared to their 15-year trend. Iowa was among states experiencing a negative difference in the fourth quarter of 2023 — mind you, before the flat income tax kicked in. Iowa experienced a 6% decrease in revenue from its historical trend, the fourth-highest difference among states that went negative, according to Pew.

Researchers explained: “State tax collections have been on a downward trajectory since their mid-2022 peak, reflecting, in large part, a decline from the unexpected highs of the pandemic revenue wave. … One question is whether states will be able to afford the budgetary commitments they made in the past three years — such as tax relief and pay raises for public employees — over the long term.”

Yet, Iowa Republicans want to enshrine their COVID-fueled tax cut into the Iowa Constitution. Last session, Republicans passed a constitutional amendment to require a two-thirds vote of both chambers of the state Legislature to pass a bill that would increase the individual or corporate income tax rate. They are expected to pass the legislation a second time this session, which would likely put it on the ballot for voters in November 2026. What a way to saddle future Iowans with a hasty tax cut enacted during a most abnormal period of artificially high revenue and reduced state expenses.

It is a sure thing Republicans will hoard Iowa’s surpluses and use it to cover predicted revenue gaps before the November 2026 vote on the constitutional amendment to mask from the voting public the true and lasting impacts of their opportunistic push for a flat tax.

In fact, Republicans and Gov. Kim Reynolds passed Senate File 2442 this year, which, among other things, changed the law regarding how the Taxpayer Relief Fund could be used. Tucked away in the second-to-last division of a 35-page bill is a section that provides that, if the actual net revenue is less than budgeted expenses “there is transferred from the taxpayer relief fund to the general fund of the state an amount equal to fifty percent of the difference or the remaining balance of the taxpayer relief fund, whichever is lower.” That is a preemptive coverup of the probable result of the Republican flat tax as conceded by Republicans, themselves.

Iowa Republicans are not using the Taxpayer Relief Fund as it was originally intended. It is not “taxpayer relief” to use previously paid taxes to pay help pay for budget shortfalls caused by a “tax cut.” Most would call that a shell game. It is like giving yourself a “raise” by moving a dollar from one pocket to another. Why not just give those “confiscated” funds back to Iowans directly via refunds? Ah, but that would spoil the game, wouldn’t it?

Unmet needs and underfunded state accounts exist now. That will get worse.

Governor Reynolds states Republicans have a “commitment to shrinking the size and scope of government.” However, should not elected officials be committed first to ensuring that our government is the “right size,” before deciding it should be shrunk? That is, the right size to fully accomplish basic functions that individuals cannot meet themselves —no matter how much of their own money they have in their pockets — such as prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, ensuring safe bridges and roads, making sure promised pensions are not underfunded, cleaning up Iowa’s fouled waters, and helping public schools at least meet their costs of operation.

Tom Walton is an Iowa lawyer.