New Mexico
New Mexico economist: Don’t expect huge jump in oil production, even if Trump slashes regulations • Source New Mexico
Even if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his promise to increase domestic oil production by slashing regulations and boosting new leases on federal land, a New Mexico state economist says that won’t necessarily mean a huge increase in production here.
To understand why, the chief economist at the Legislative Finance Committee said you have to look at the way big oil companies, which have consolidated in recent years through mergers and acquisitions, have approached new production in recent years.
Shareholders at publicly traded oil companies are increasingly focused on profits from steady, regimented oil production from existing wells, not spending capital in search of new, potentially unproductive wells, said economist Ismael Torres.
“It’s like this change in attitude that, rather than take the money to do more drilling – to get more market share, to get more production – they’re going to not be so big of risk-takers,” Torres told Source New Mexico. “They’re going to drill where they know that they can earn a profit.”
First Trump term gives hints for second
Torres and the Legislative Finance Committee, which makes budget recommendations to lawmakers. included that prediction in a new revenue estimate for lawmakers ahead of the 60-day legislative session, which will begin in January just as Trump is sworn in for his second term. The state is heavily reliant on revenue from oil and gas production: It contributed an estimated 35% of the state’s general fund balance last year.
In addition to predicting another big budget surplus for lawmakers, the 31-page revenue estimate tried to predict what Trump’s promised policies, including new tariffs and oil deregulation, could mean for the revenues in the nation’s second-biggest oil and gas producing state.
When it comes to tariffs, it’s anyone’s guess, Torres said. The incoming Trump administration has released so little detail that determining the impact of tariffs on consumers or industry is difficult, he said. But the behavior of oil companies in the Permian Basin during the first Trump term, and the LFC’s observations of the industry in recent years, allows the analysts to make an educated guess.
New Mexico reports more than $2B in revenue for the third year in a row
According to federal Bureau of Land Management Statistics, New Mexico had about 7,570 active oil leases on federal lands as of 2023, the most-recent year for which data is available. That’s the second-highest in the country, behind Wyoming. There are also about 5,700 active leases on state lands, according to State Land Office data.
During the first Trump term, Torres said, oil companies took advantage of relaxed leasing requirements to secure more leases and permits on federal land, but that doesn’t mean they ever broke ground, he said.
Torres provided an industry analysis from Rystad Energy in January 2021, right after President Joe Biden took office, showing that two major producers, EOG and Devon, held onto about 1,100 horizontal drilling permits they obtained for the Delaware Basin in New Mexico between 2018 and 2020 without turning them into actual wells.
Torres’ interpretation of that is companies stockpiled permits while they could, anticipating that a new presidential administration would crack down on new permits, but never intended to immediately drill new wells.
Given the way the oil industry behaved the last time around, and shareholders’ new preference for steady profits over speculation, Torres said, he expects “business as usual” come January.
“The devil’s in the details,” he said. “But I am struggling to see what form it could take that would present a significant change in the current trajectory of production as it stands.”
State budget insulated from oil volatility
The current trajectory of oil production in New Mexico is a slowdown in growth and falling prices, following huge increases in production since 2017, according to the LFC report.
The state now produces a little more than 2 million barrels of oil a day, up from about 500,000 in 2017. But that huge year-over-year increase has already dropped, and it is expected to decrease even more in the next few years, from a 5% increase this year to 1.5% increases each fiscal year between 2027 and 2029.
Oil prices in New Mexico are also falling, from $78 a barrel, on average, last fiscal year to about $70 a barrel this fiscal year. They’re projected to reach $68 a barrel in fiscal year 2026, which begins in July. The LFC attributes that decline to reduced demand, growing supply and other economic conditions.
Between the reduced prices and reduced growth in production, the state expects overall collections to decrease over the next couple years. Analysts estimated the state generated $1.9 billion in oil and gas-related severance taxes this year, a decline of $64 million the previous year.
New Mexico governor: Expect ‘laundry list’ of crime proposals in one bill in legislative session
That would normally be very bad news, given the state’s reliance on oil and gas revenue. But lawmakers at a Monday meeting lauded the state’s approach to protect the general fund from volatility in the oil and gas industry, at least when it comes to creating a new budget early next year.
Revenue estimates show the state will receive $13.26 billion in revenue this fiscal year, which ends in late June. That estimate was revised upward since the last projections in August, when analysts estimated the state would get slightly over $13 billion. The new estimates mean the state will have about $900 million in “new” money to spend in next year’s budget, which is the total expected revenues minus last year’s spending.
Beginning in 2023, the state began capping the amount of oil and gas severance tax revenues that would end up in the general fund, an effort to invest a boon of oil revenue and insulate state operations from future price slumps.
As a result, the reduction in revenue only hits two reserve funds, like the Early Childhood Trust Fund and the Tax Stabilization Reserve, rather than reducing the general fund balance. Reducing the general fund balance could mean cutting the recurring funding departments use to pay staff or fund operations, along with nixing one-time appropriations.
The governor and the Legislature have agreed to tackle crime-related policies in a single piece of legislation, and the governor is calling for a big one-time boost in behavioral health spending.
New Mexico
Actor Timothy Busfield turns himself in following child sex abuse allegations in New Mexico
Timothy Busfield turned himself into police on Tuesday after authorities in New Mexico issued an arrest warrant for the director and Emmy Award-winning actor accused of child sex abuse.
A spokesperson for the Albuquerque Police Department confirmed to CBS News that Busfield had surrendered. He was booked into the Metropolitan Detention Center in Bernalillo County on a child sex abuse charge. The arrest warrant, which was signed by a judge, said the charge was for two counts of criminal sexual contact of a minor.
An investigator with the Albuquerque Police Department on Friday filed a criminal complaint which alleged a child reported that Busfield touched him inappropriately. The acts allegedly occurred on the set of “The Cleaning Lady,” a TV series that Busfield directed and acted in.
In a video provided to TMZ, Busfield said the allegations “are all lies.”
“I did not do anything to those little boys,” the 68-year-old actor said in the video appearing to show him in Albuquerque. He said he arrived in the city after driving 2,000 miles. Busfield’s attorney did not immediately return a message seeking comment Tuesday.
The criminal complaint filed by an investigator with Albuquerque police says the boy reported that he was 7 years old when Busfield touched him three or four times on private areas over his clothing. Busfield allegedly touched him five or six times on another occasion when he was 8, the complaint said.
The child was reportedly afraid to tell anyone because Busfield was the director and he feared he would get mad at him, the complaint said.
The boy’s twin brother told authorities he was touched by Busfield but did not specify where. He said he didn’t say anything because he didn’t want to get in trouble.
When interviewed by authorities, Busfield suggested that the boys’ mother was seeking revenge for her children being replaced on the series. He also said he likely would have picked up and tickled the boys, saying the set was a playful environment.
The mother of the twins — who are identified only by their initials in court records — reported to Child Protective Services that the abuse occurred between November 2022 and spring 2024, the complaint said.
“The Cleaning Lady” aired for four seasons on Fox, ending in 2025. It was produced by Warner Bros., which according to the complaint conducted its own investigation into the abuse allegations but was unable to corroborate them.
Busfield is known for appearances in “The West Wing,” “Field of Dreams” and “Thirtysomething,” the latter of which won him an Emmy for outstanding supporting actor in a drama series in 1991. He is married to actor Melissa Gilbert, who deactivated her Instagram account amid the allegations.
Gilbert indicated through a publicist that she won’t speak publicly at the request of attorneys for Busfield while the legal process unfolds.
“Her focus is on supporting and caring for their very large family,” publicist Ame Van Iden said in a statement. “Melissa stands with and supports her husband and will address the public at an appropriate time.”
The investigation began in November 2024, when the investigator responded to a call from a doctor at the University of New Mexico Hospital in Albuquerque. The boys’ parents had gone there at the recommendation of a law firm, the complaint said.
According to the complaint, one of the boys has been diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder and anxiety. A social worker documented him saying he has had nightmares about Busfield touching him.
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