Business
Trump tees up tariff hikes on top trading partners. What's at stake for California?
WASHINGTON — When President-elect Donald Trump announced he would impose sweeping tariffs on key trading partners on his first day in office, he signaled a return to a favorite strategy: a reverse carrot-and-stick that applies the stick of dire consequences in order to force countries to give him what he wants. In this case, that means a tougher crackdown on illegal migration and the movement of drugs into the U.S.
The risk of applying this tactic to foreign trade is that the whole U.S. economy is so reliant on the status quo that any miscalculation could have damaging consequences, especially in California and other trade-dependent states.
To some extent, that happened in Trump’s first term, when selective tariff increases set off costly trade wars with China and others.
The fallout from tariffs could have major damaging effects on California’s globally integrated economy, affecting thousands of businesses and many more jobs, consumer prices and choices of goods. And, if trading partners retaliate, tariff increases could hurt the state’s sales of farm goods, electronics, transportation equipment and other leading exports. Mexico and Canada are the top two destinations for California exports, and China and Mexico account for the bulk of the state’s imports.
Even uncertainty over such possibilities can cause havoc in financial markets and raise fears of higher prices, as well as disruptions to vital businesses dependent particularly on Mexico and the Pacific Rim.
Trump posted on his Truth Social site late Monday that on his first day on the job he would impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and also tack on an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports. He said these countries — which are the United States’ top three trading partners — would be paying the price for not doing enough on illegal migration and drugs flowing into the U.S.
“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” Trump wrote.
The reality is that illegal border crossings from Mexico have fallen dramatically in recent months as the Biden administration has tightened up especially on asylum arrivals.
And U.S. drug seizures along the Southwest border have changed little in recent years, according to Department of Homeland Security statistics.
For years, China has been a major producer of fentanyl coming into the U.S., and Trump said in his post that Beijing has failed to clamp down on drug suppliers as it had promised.
Canada is not a big source of illicit drugs or illegal migration into the U.S., although there has been a sharp increase in unauthorized crossings along the northern border in the last year, driven in large part by Indians. Trump didn’t explain why Canada was targeted, but some analysts said he may be viewing the drug and migration situation as a North American problem.
U.S. stock markets, which had been on a run in recent days, opened mixed Tuesday but ended the day higher, suggesting that investors are familiar with Trump’s playbook and that these three countries could avoid the tariffs if they present a credible plan to curb the drug supplies and secure the borders, said analysts at Capital Economics. Mexico staved off a similar Trump threat over illegal migration in 2019.
But Trump’s salvo just three weeks after the election, plus his frequent campaign promises of hiking tariffs, suggests that he will move more quickly in carrying out his trade agenda than in his first term.
Trump has said he would slap tariffs of 10% to 20% on goods from around the world, and up to 60% on imports from China.
The consequences could be dire for California’s economy, given its heavy trade with China and Mexico.
Imports from China ($120 billion) and Mexico ($62 billion) accounted for a full 40% of the $450 billion worth of foreign products that entered California last year. And Mexico, Canada and China rank as the state’s top three export markets.
Overall, international trade and investment and related commerce employ hundreds of thousands of Californians and are a major economic engine for the state.
At the Port of Los Angeles, China’s share of all cargo, as measured by containers, has fallen to 43% from 57% in 2022. But the Port of L.A., the busiest in the nation, has kept growing in overall volume due to increased shipments from other Pacific Rim countries.
With U.S.-China relations worsening over the last decade, many manufacturers in California, as elsewhere, shifted at least some production and suppliers away from China to other sites in Asia and also to Mexico. But the scale of tariffs that Trump is announcing, whether 10% across the globe or separate duties on Chinese, Mexican and Canadian goods, would be too great for other countries to make up.
Much of U.S. imports from China and Mexico are consumer goods and intermediate parts that go into autos, appliances and other products. Southern California apparel companies have for years been sending clothes to be sewn and finished in Mexico, duty-free. Vehicle components often cross North American borders back and forth several times before final assembly — and tariffs added along the way will mean higher prices for everybody.
Now those long-established supply chains may be in jeopardy as analysts expect Trump to try to remake trade deals with North American partners, among others, using tariffs and the big American economic market as leverage.
“It’s going to be a jolt to the system, and at the end of the day it will be impactful to consumer pocketbooks,” said Rachel Michelin, president of the California Retailers Assn. She said her member companies have been trying to get ahead of higher tariffs by ordering products before Trump takes office.
“From a California perspective, it’s going to be alarming because the cost of living here is higher,” Michelin said. “We really are pricing people out of living in California.”
In Trump’s first term, China and other countries hit back by raising tariffs on sensitive American farm goods, including soybeans and wine. But overall trade also slowed, with U.S. companies scurrying to file for tariff exemptions and trying to curry favor with his administration for relief.
Jock O’Connell, a California trade specialist at Beacon Economics, said the Trump administration’s trade skirmishes with China in 2017 caused a dramatic falloff in the state’s trade volume. California exporters learned to diversify their markets. This time around, he said, the state may have even fewer options.
“There’s not going to be a lot of political payoff” in helping California, O’Connell said. “Can you imagine [Gov.] Newsom flying to Washington to meet with trade officials in the White House to deal with tariffs?”
Greg Danenhauer, co-owner of Parker Boiler, a manufacturer in City of Commerce, said he still buys some steel and cast iron burners from China, but overall looks to China for less than 18% of his supplies, compared with as much as 25% in 2016. Parker Boiler also buys temperature controls and other products from Mexico.
Danenhauer said Trump’s earlier tariffs on Chinese products actually helped level the playing field for domestic makers such as himself. And he’s not worrying about higher tariffs down the road.
“To me, everybody is panicked about it,” he said. “But we don’t know yet” what’s coming, he said.
Dan Ujczo, a trade lawyer at the Ohio-based firm Thompson Hine, drew a distinction between Monday’s tariff announcement, which he said was “very tactical and transactional, targeted for a specific purpose,” and Trump’s plans on universal tariffs and those aimed at China. The latter “are more transformative or transitional when it comes to global trade,” he said, adding that they are likely to be proposed later and closer to when tax cuts and other fiscal plans are ready.
During his first term, Trump often used threats such as high tariffs to browbeat America’s allies into concessions. On defense policy, for instance, he famously raised doubts about continued U.S. participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; European allies responded by boosting their contributions to the cost of mutual defense.
Chinese imports are already subject to U.S. tariffs of 10% to 25% stemming from Trump’s actions in his first term and which were left in place by President Biden. That helped Mexico overtake China in 2021 as the United States’ top two-way trading partner. Still, the United States’ biggest trade deficit, by far, remains with China, in excess of $279 billion last year, according to the Census Bureau.
Trump’s tariffs announced Monday, if implemented, would almost certainly cause significant disruptions for industries and raise consumer costs for gas, autos and all sorts of other products, possibly reigniting inflation, which appeared to be a key factor in his election victory.
The U.S. imported a total of about $1.3 trillion worth of goods from those three countries last year, and about two-thirds of that amount came in tariff-free, thanks to the U.S. free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada.
Despite that trade pact, experts said Trump could impose the tariffs by using the statutory authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, which he cited extensively in his first term, including in his dealings with Mexico and China.
Whether tactical or not, the tariff threats could escalate — Mexico already said it could retaliate with counter-tariffs. And some economists warned that Trump’s plans could backfire.
“It’s a reckless grenade toss,” said Michael Clemens, an economics professor at George Mason University who specializes in international migration. “Harming American consumers and workers with a trade war will do nothing at all to address their concerns about immigration and drugs.”
Business
As gas prices rise, California gets punched harder at the pump than other states
Californians are feeling more pain at the pump than any other state as the conflict with Iran pushes up prices.
Spencer Shearer was filling up his Nissan Sentra on Friday morning at the Chevron station in Brentwood near San Vicente and Montana avenues and paying a rate higher than almost anywhere else in the country: $5.55 per gallon.
“It sucks,” Shearer said as he watched his bill on the pump click toward $50.
With the continued conflict in and around Iran, gas prices are rising. In the Los Angeles area and a few places around the San Francisco Bay Area, the cost of gas has cracked $5-per-gallon again and is even tipping toward $6 in a few places.
The spreading conflict in the Persian Gulf has had a predictable but unwelcome impact on California drivers. Californians usually pay far more for gas than people in other states.
Its pole position on prices is continuing with the latest surge.
The average cost of a gallon of regular gas in California is the most expensive in the country at $4.91, up 6% from a week ago and 11% from a month ago, according to AAA. The nationwide average is $3.32 per gallon.
The conflict with Iran has strangled movement through the Persian Gulf and catapulted the price of a barrel of oil.
The prices in California are higher than in other states because of higher taxes and stricter requirements for cleaner, more expensive gas that pollutes less. This has been a festering issue not only for the industry but also for consumers.
Fuel marketers, gas station owners and some voters have blamed Gov. Gavin Newsom’s policies.
Gas prices at a Shell station on Foothill Boulevard.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
Newsom told regulators in 2021 to stop issuing fracking permits and phase out oil extraction by 2045. He also signed a bill allowing local governments to block the construction of oil and gas wells. He seemed to ease his stance last year and signed a bill allowing up to 2,000 new oil wells per year through 2036 in Kern County, which produces about three-fourths of the state’s crude oil.
As a result of the policies that seem aimed at punishing oil producers, California has seen a steady decline in crude oil production, making it more reliant on oil and gasoline supplies outside the state.
In 2024, only 23% of the crude oil refined in the state was pumped in California, with 13% from Alaska and 63% from elsewhere in the world, including about 30% from the Middle East, according to the Western States Petroleum Assn.
The primary reason gas prices in California are high is that refinery closures are reducing local supply while demand has remained high, said Zachary Leary, chief lobbyist at the Western States Petroleum Assn.
“Geopolitical events … show and highlight how fragile it is here in California,” he said.
California’s special gasoline blends are increasingly imported from overseas and can require more than a month to transport, he added.
Supply bottlenecks have been exacerbated by recent refinery closures, including the Phillips 66 refinery in Wilmington in October and the idling and planned closure of the Valero refinery in Benicia, which reduced refining capacity in the state by close to 20%.
It is hard to predict how long this spike in prices will stay, said Severin Borenstein, faculty director of the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business.
“We don’t know whether the war will widen or end quickly,” said Borenstein. “Those things will drive the price of crude.”
At the Brentwood gas station, product manager Conner Uretsky, 30, waited as his partner refueled her Toyota Prius ahead of a trip to Palm Springs. Lately, he said, surging fuel costs have made him think twice about going on road trips.
Uretsky, who moved to Los Angeles from the East Coast about six years ago, said he was initially shocked by the region’s high cost of living.
“Gas prices are crazy,” he said.
Paula, a writer who declined to share her last name, said she was “furious” at President Trump’s decision to start a war with Iran, as well as his recent actions in Venezuela and threats against Greenland and Cuba.
“If you look at who’s paying for this war, we are,” she said, pointing to the fuel price flip sign as she waited for her Volvo hybrid SUV to refuel.
Shearer says he has to be more careful with his gas budget. The business analyst tries to find the least expensive gas near his home in Los Angeles. Still, he’s gotten used to California’s high prices.
“It feels almost normal to be paying this amount,” he said.
Times staff writer Laurence Darmiento contributed to this report.
Business
Labubu maker Pop Mart is opening U.S. headquarters in Culver City
Pop Mart, the Chinese toymaker known for its collectible Labubu dolls, reportedly plans to open a new office building in Culver City as it seeks to expand its North American presence.
The 22,000-square-foot office will serve as Pop Mart’s new U.S. headquarters, according to real estate data provider CoStar, which earlier reported the deal.
Pop Mart, founded in 2010 in Beijing, is credited with fueling the frenzy over “blind boxes” — small, collectible toys sold in packaging that keeps the exact figure inside a surprise until it is unsealed.
The toymaker, which is publicly traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has nearly 600 physical stores across 18 countries, according to its September 2025 half-year financial report.
Much of its recent growth has concentrated in the U.S. In the first half of last year, the company opened 40 new stores, including 19 in the Americas. In Southern California, it now has stores in Westfield Century City, Glendale Galleria, and Westfield UTC Mall in La Jolla.
The office building Pop Mart is moving into, named “Slash,” features leaning glass windows and a distinguishable jagged design. The 1999 building was designed by the Los Angeles architect Eric Owen Moss.
Pop Mart’s decision to root itself in L.A.’s Westside comes amid Culver City’s transformation from a sleepy suburb known for being the home to Sony Pictures Studios — to an urban hub, driven, in part, by the Expo Line station that opened in 2012.
Ikea recently announced plans to open a 40,000-square-foot store in Culver City’s historic Helms Bakery complex — its first in L.A.’s Westside — later this spring.
Big tech has played an important role in Culver City’s recent evolution. Recent additions include Apple, which has opened a studio and has been building a larger office campus; Amazon, which in 2022 unveiled a massive virtual production stage, and Tiktok, which in 2020 opened a five-floor office featuring a content creation studio. Pinterest has a new office in Culver City as of last month, according to the company’s LinkedIn account.
Business
After Warner Bros. merger, changes are coming to the historic Paramount lot. Here’s what to expect
With Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. expected to saddle the combined company with $79 billion in debt, Paramount executives are looking to do away with redundant assets including real estate — and there is a lot of that.
Chief in the public’s imagination are their historic studios in Burbank and Hollywood, where legendary films and television show have been made for generations and continue to operate year-round.
“Both of these studios are in the core [30-mile zone,] the inner circle of where Hollywood talent wants to be,” entertainment property broker Nicole Mihalka of CBRE said. “It’s very prime real estate.”
When Sony and Apollo were bidding for Paramount in early 2024, their plan was to sell the Paramount property, but there is no indication that Paramount would part with its namesake lot.
For now, Paramount’s plan is to keep both studios operating with each studio releasing about 15 films a year, but the goal is to eventually consolidate most of the studio operations around the Warner Bros. lot in Burbank in order to to eliminate redundancies with the Paramount lot on Melrose Avenue, people close to Chief Executive David Ellison said.
A view of the Warner Bros. Studios water tower Feb. 23, 2026, in Burbank.
(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)
Paramount would not look to raze its celebrated studio lot — the oldest operating film studio in Los Angeles — because of various restrictions on historic buildings there. Paramount also has a relatively new post-production facility on site and will likely need to the studio space.
Instead, the plan would be to lease out space for film productions, including those from combined Paramount-HBO streaming operations. Ellison also is considering plans to develop other parts of the 65-acre site for possible retail use, as well as renting space for commercial offices.
The studios’ combined property holdings are vast, and real estate data provider CoStar estimates they have about 12 million square feet of overlapping uses, including their studio campuses, offices and long-term leases in such film centers as Burbank, Hollywood and New York.
Century-old Paramount Pictures Studios is awash in Hollywood history — think Gloria Swanson as Norma Desmond desperately trying to enter its famous gate in “Sunset Boulevard,” and other classics such as “The Godfather,” “Titanic” and “Breakfast at Tiffany’s.”
The lot, however, is a congested warren of stages, offices, trailers and support facilities such as woodworking mills that date to the early 20th century. The layout is byzantine in part because Paramount bought the former rival RKO studio lot from Desilu Productions to create the lot known today.
Warner Bros. occupies 11 million square feet and owns 14 properties totaling 9.5 million square feet, largely in the United States and United Kingdom, CoStar said. About 3 million square feet of that commercial property is in the Los Angeles area.
The firm’s portfolio also includes the sprawling Warner Bros. Studios Leavesden complex in the U.K. and Turner Broadcasting System headquarters in Atlanta.
Paramount Skydance occupies 8 million square feet and owns 14 properties totaling 2.1 million square feet, according to CoStar. In addition to its Hollywood campus, Paramount’s holdings include prominent buildings in New York such as the Ed Sullivan Theater and CBS Broadcast Center.
Warner Bros. operates a 3-million-square-foot lot in Burbank with more than 30 soundstages — along with space for building sets and backlot areas — where famous movies including “Casablanca” and television shows such as “Friends” were filmed. Paramount’s 1.2-million-square-foot Melrose campus anchors a broader network of owned and leased production space, CoStar said.
Paramount’s lot is already cleared for more development. More than a decade ago, Paramount secured city approval to add 1.4 million square feet to its headquarters and some adjacent properties owned by the company.
The redevelopment plan, valued at $700 million in 2016, underwent years of environmental review and public outreach with neighbors and local business owners.
The plan would allow for construction of up to 1.9 million square feet of new stage, production office, support, office, and retail uses, and the removal of up to 537,600 square feet of existing stage, production office, support, office, and retail uses, for a net increase of nearly 1.4 million square feet.
The proposal preserves elements of the past by focusing future development on specific portions of the lot along Melrose and limited areas in the production core, architecture firm Rios said.
The Warner Bros. and Paramount lots “are two of the most prime pieces of real estate in the country,” Mihalka said. “These are legacy assets with a lot of potential to be [tourist] attractions in addition to working studios.”
Hollywood is still reeling from previous mergers, in addition to a sharp pullback in film and television production locally as filmmakers chase tax credits offered overseas and in other states, including New York and New Jersey.
Last year, lawmakers boosted the annual amount allocated to the state’s film and TV tax credit program and expanded the criteria for eligible projects in an attempt to lure production back to California. So far, more than 100 film and TV projects have been awarded tax credits under the revamped program.
The benefits have been slow to materialize, but Mihalka predicts that the tax credits and desirability of working close to home will lead to more studio use in the Los Angeles area, including at Warner Bros. and Paramount.
“These are such prime locations that we’ll see show runners and talent push back on having shows located out of state and insist on being here,” she said. “I think you’re going to see more positive movement here.”
Times staff writer Meg James contributed to this report.
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