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2024 College Football odds: Long-shot Alabama best bet to win national title

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2024 College Football odds: Long-shot Alabama best bet to win national title


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Thanksgiving weekend is here, and we have somehow already reached the conclusion of the college football regular season. 

It seems like just a few weeks ago we were counting down the days to the start of the season. I vividly remember anxiously awaiting Week 0 and all the great matchups on Labor Day weekend the following Saturday. 

The regular season is ending with a bang, with stunning upsets shaking up the College Football Playoff outlook last Saturday. Ole Miss and Alabama were picked off as big road favorites and both teams now sit with three losses.

Indiana suffered its first loss of the season at Ohio State. But unless the Hoosiers lose again this week to Purdue as 30-point favorites, they will finish the season with just one loss — a very forgivable one at that. With that in mind, Indiana is safely in, assuming it gets a win on Saturday. 

As far as the rest of the field, Oregon and Ohio State are surely in and Penn State and Texas are very likely in as well. But what else do we really know about the field of 12 as we enter the final weekend? 

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Georgia looked like it just needed to beat Georgia Tech in the season finale, as that would have ended the Dawgs’ season with two losses, assuring them a spot in the Playoffs. But with all the upsets, Georgia will now play in an SEC Championship Game and could net a third loss. 

Here’s something else to consider. Can the winner of this weekend’s South Carolina-Clemson game now get in? Does the ACC get two teams in? 

What makes the next two weeks so much fun is that we have way more questions than answers. 

So, as we settle in with football on the screen and leftovers in the fridge, is there a bet to be made on the national champion? 

Warning: Some fans will dislike even the thought of this possibility.

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Alabama +4000 National Champion

Are you 100 percent sure the loss to Oklahoma last week eliminated the Crimson Tide? I’m certainly not, and neither are the oddsmakers. 

Alabama is an underdog to make the College Football Playoff, but at +180 odds, it’s certainly not priced as something that’s completely impossible. 

Again, I have more questions than answers. 

Alabama & Ole Miss: Will both miss the Playoff after suffering a third loss?

For example, what if Tennessee and/or Notre Dame lose this weekend? Or what if the final spot comes down to a two-loss SMU team and a three-loss Alabama team? Which would the committee choose? 

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The brand name of Alabama, the Tide’s win over potential SEC champ Georgia, and the possibility of an upset-filled weekend makes it hard for me to completely write off Alabama — even if I don’t necessarily agree that it belongs in the Playoff with three losses. 

Yes, Alabama is unlikely to get in, but as we saw last weekend, upsets happen in this sport, and what’s unlikely one day can change quickly to reality. 

If the Tide do get in — despite their flaws — they could make a run in what is a wide-open year in college football. And at 40-1 odds, that’s a bet I couldn’t argue against making. 

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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Scarbinsky: To even the score, Alabama has to believe it’s a better team than Oklahoma

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Scarbinsky: To even the score, Alabama has to believe it’s a better team than Oklahoma


This is an opinion column.

Alabama has been here before.

Not this Alabama quarterback or this Alabama coach or this Alabama team, but that script “A” brand. Those crimson helmets. That championship DNA.

Questioned. Doubted. Defeated in the regular season in its own sandbox by a team it would be forced to meet again in the postseason in that team’s back yard.

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Except the players and coaches who made up the 2011 Alabama football team didn’t question or doubt themselves after the Game of the Century went the wrong way. They didn’t feel defeated by LSU 9, Alabama 6 in Bryant-Denny Stadium.

When the polls and computers combined to put them in the BCS Championship Game in New Orleans, they didn’t look at it as if they were forced to play LSU again even though pundits were already talking about those Tigers as one of the greatest teams in college football history.

Just the opposite. Alabama felt fortunate. Confident. Almost arrogant. AJ McCarron, Trent Richardson and the rest learned something about themselves and their opponent on Nov. 5, 2011. The scoreboard said Alabama was the loser in that No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown. Their hearts and minds told them they were the better team.

Given a second chance, they proved it. They shut down LSU, shut up the critics and locked down another national championship. Alabama 21, LSU 0 told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The better team lived in Tuscaloosa.

That team believed it but needed a second chance to validate it. This team should feel the same way when it gets on the plane to kick off the 2025 College Football Playoff on Friday night.

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Round 2 of Alabama vs. Oklahoma is not the second coming of the Jan. 9, 2012 Game of the Century Part Deaux, but it is a reasonable facsimile. When their heads hit the pillow on the night of Nov. 15, after Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21, Kalen DeBoer and company had every reason to believe the scoreboard showed some facts without telling the truth.

Alabama ran 24 more plays and gained 194 more yards that day. Alabama possessed the ball 8 minutes and 56 seconds longer. Each team faced 13 third downs. Alabama converted five of them, two more than Oklahoma. Alabama committed three fewer penalties.

There was a serious disconnect between the box score and the final score until you looked at the turnovers. Alabama committed three of them, Oklahoma not one. The Sooners turned those turnovers into 17 points. Ballgame.

It’s one thing to feel like you gave your best effort but lost to a better team. It’s far more maddening to know in your gut that you were your own worst enemy.

Ty Simpson was better than John Mateer that day except for the killer interception that turned a promising drive into an 87-yard pick-six. Alabama’s underappreciated defense was better than Oklahoma’s celebrated unit except for the sudden change after Ryan Williams fumbled a punt and OU scored a touchdown two plays later.

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The field tilted decisively toward the Sooners only on special teams, but it was more than enough to give them the signature victory they lacked.

To supplement the punt coverage punchout, the nation’s best kicker, OU’s Tate Sandell, went 3 for 3 on field goals, including a 52-yard laser. Alabama’s Conor Talty had his only attempt partially blocked but it might not have mattered, and rather than writing his name in crimson flame, he torched his rep by berating his snapper in plain sight.

One play made here or there or a single mistake erased, and Alabama wins the game. Will the Crimson Tide make the same mistakes twice? They didn’t in January of 2012, the last time an Alabama team got a do-over after a defeat against the same opponent in the same season.

Don’t misunderstand. This 2025 Alabama team is not that 2011 team, but there is one striking similarity. This team is better than it showed on that unseasonably warm Tuscaloosa afternoon in mid-November. This team, pound for pound and player for player, is better than Oklahoma.

All this team has to do now is prove it, in the box score and on the scoreboard. Kadyn Proctor, Bray Hubbard and the rest have to get in OU’s face in OU’s house, make their mark and leave no doubt.

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No one has to believe it but them.



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How to Watch Alabama Basketball vs USF, Preview and Open Thread

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How to Watch Alabama Basketball vs USF, Preview and Open Thread


Nate Oats’ squad will try to rebound from a disastrous second half in the last outing against top-ranked Arizona. It was the first time this season that the Tide looked truly overmatched in a game and should be instructive in terms of which areas need addressed.

The problem is that the biggest issue, rebounding the ball and keeping opponents off the offensive glass in particular, may not be something that they can solve for with the current roster, against better teams anyway.

Tonight the Tide will host a South Florida squad that shouldn’t be much trouble if Alabama plays to its potential. The Bulls have rebounded the ball reasonably well, albeit against a relatively weak schedule, averaging 15.5 offensive boards per game. Guard Joseph Pinion is a name to watch. He leads the Bulls in scoring and shoots 38% from three, and also averages better than two steals per contest.

The Bulls generally run a four guard look with Izayiah Nelson and Daimion Collins rotating down low. Nelson has been particularly effective on the glass, averaging more than nine boards a game in only 24 minutes.

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The Bulls are coached by longtime Oats assistant Bryan Hodgson, in his first season at South Florida after two at Arkansas State. Stylistically, expect something of a mirror image in this one.

What: South Florida at Alabama

How to Watch: ESPN+ or ESPN app

Use this as your open thread.



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The Alabama Position Group Kalen DeBoer Has Sat in ‘Every Meeting’ With This Week

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The Alabama Position Group Kalen DeBoer Has Sat in ‘Every Meeting’ With This Week


The first sentence that Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer said during Monday’s press conference: “Just got off the practice field. Having coached those receivers a little bit more and help out, I’m a little more winded than normal.”

Former Alabama head coach Nick Saban often worked closely with the defensive backs, as he was one at Kent State in the early 1970s. Meanwhile, DeBoer was a wide receiver at Sioux Falls from 1993-1996, as he set school records for receptions (234), receiving yards (3,400) and touchdowns (33), while earning All-American honors.

As Alabama enters the postseason with a trip to Norman on Friday to face Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff, DeBoer said on Wednesday that he’s recently worked very closely with the Crimson Tide wide receivers.

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“I like the attention to detail these guys [have] and the questions they’re asking,” DeBoer said. “I get in that room every once in a while but I’ve been in it more, pretty much every meeting here the last week. Just really like the way they’re trying to be dialed in. I just think they’re really working together well to add to what we’ve done before.

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Alabama’s wide receivers room underwent a massive change a few weeks ago, as JaMarcus Shephard took the open head coaching job at Oregon State. DeBoer previously said that the coaching staff had a “celebration” for Shephard and that they’re “really excited for him.”

After taking the Oregon State position, Shephard remained at Alabama to coach the Iron Bowl and SEC Championship. The Crimson Tide reportedly hired Derrick Nix on Tuesday to fill Shephard’s role, but DeBoer was “not ready to talk about that” on Wednesday.

Alabama hired former New England Patriots wide receivers coach Tyler Hughes to its coaching staff as an analyst in February, and DeBoer’s been impressed with his efforts lately.

“Tyler Hughes is a guy that’s been in our program, he was with us a few years ago when we were at Washington,” DeBoer said. “He’s been back and forth between the Patriots in different capacities, and last year he was the wide receivers coach there.

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“From a fundamental and teaching standpoint, he understands that position. Has done it at the highest level, and then understands our offensive system. He’s been a critical piece to our success for a couple years now.

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“He’s done a great job filling in and really working with that group each and every day, in the meetings, on the side just to get them up to speed on what the game plan is all about. We got, at this point, guys that understand what it takes. We’ve got good leadership in that group. Guys that care. Guys that can make plays. So it’s certainly a unified effort, which is great to see.”

Alabama’s offense has been a bit stagnant lately and not as explosive as it was during the first few weeks of the season. Finding ways to get these wide receivers open quicker for quarterback Ty Simpson to easily find and connect with them will be a major key to success.

Alabama’s first-round matchup against Oklahoma is set to kick off on Friday at 7 p.m. CT in Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on ESPN and ABC.

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