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Column: Trump pledges not to cut Social Security. Here are the ways he could breach that promise

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Column: Trump pledges not to cut Social Security. Here are the ways he could breach that promise

Despite all the talk about Donald Trump being a unique political figure in American history, there’s one way in which he has behaved like every other politician on the stump: He’s promised not to lay a hand on Social Security.

With more than 67 million Americans collecting stipends now and hundreds of millions more counting on benefits for their retirement, any threat to the system’s benefits sends a shudder through the nation’s workers. That’s why a promise not to cut benefits has become embedded into American politics for most of the program’s nine decades of existence.

But that hasn’t eliminated the threat of benefit cuts, chiefly from Republicans. Social Security’s internal workings are so recondite and poorly understood by average voters that numerous possible ways of imposing benefit cuts or otherwise harming the program are hiding in plain sight. Trump mentioned some during his recent presidential campaign and attempted others during his last term.

I’m not sure that this administration is going to be in the business of strengthening and protecting Social Security.

— Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley

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Trump’s fellow Republicans have alluded to yet others. In March, the House GOP caucus released a budget proposal that would eviscerate Social Security.

The caucus members groused about how Social Security has expanded since it was originally signed into law by Franklin Roosevelt in 1935, through “the addition of disability benefits, dependents and survivors benefits, and the incorporation of automatic cost-of-living adjustments.”

Predictably, they don’t mention who was responsible for these changes: Disability was added in 1956, under Dwight Eisenhower; cost-of-living adjustments were enacted in 1972, under Richard Nixon, and went into effect in 1975, under Gerald Ford. All three presidents were Republicans.

The committee called for “modest adjustments to the retirement age for future retirees to account for increases in life expectancy,” raising the retirement age to 69 from the current standard of 67 for new retirees. That’s a benefit cut, and one that would hit low-income and Black Americans harder than others.

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Here’s the bottom line: It would be folly to be complacent about what the current political majority might do to Social Security.

“There’s a very serious worry on the horizon,” Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley told Al Sharpton on MSNBC last weekend, “because Donald Trump’s policies would seriously reduce the fiscal health of Social Security…. There’s a lot of talk among people around him about all sorts of gimmicks.” (O’Malley is leaving the commissioner’s post to run for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee.)

O’Malley is backed up by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a hive of conservative budget hawks.

Trump’s campaign proposals, the CRFB calculated in October, could cost Social Security’s cash reserves $1.3 trillion to $2.75 trillion over 10 years, hastening the exhaustion of its trust funds by three years, to 2031.

That would provoke a cut in benefits of as much as 33% if Congress fails to act in the interim, the committee reckoned — pointing to Trump’s proposals to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, imposing across-the-board tariffs on imported goods and deporting millions of immigrants.

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Let’s take a look at the proposal Trump aired during the campaign to eliminate the federal income tax on Social Security benefits.

That’s a crowd-pleaser — after all, who doesn’t love lower taxes? It certainly would mean more take-home pay for those paying tax on their benefits, which is almost everyone except the lowest-income Americans. But it would erode the system’s fiscal stability at a crucial time. Trump couldn’t cut these taxes without congressional consent.

Social Security benefits are taxed on a progressive scale. Typically, , couples with “combined income” of $25,000 to $34,000 are taxed on 50% of their benefits; those with more than $44,000 pay tax on up to 85% of their benefits. (For individuals, the first threshold is $25,000 to $34,000.)

“Combined income” is defined as taxpayers’ adjusted gross income, plus their nontaxable interest earnings and half of their Social Security benefits.

Eliminating the tax on benefits, therefore, could put as much as $4,200 a year back in the pockets of an average benefit-collecting household. Those taxes, however, are paid back to the Social Security and Medicare systems.

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For Social Security, which receives the tax on the first 50% of benefits, they’re vital to the program’s revenue stream —$50.7 billion, or 3.75% of all revenues, in 2023. Benefit taxation is projected to yield about $133 billion annually by 2033, accounting for more than 6.5% of the program’s income.

There are only two ways to keep Social Security whole — reduce benefits or increase the payroll tax that provides the largest chunk of income. Taxpayers would have to pay one way or another. And the joy of having more take-home pay now would evaporate when the bills start coming due.

During his first term, Trump and his acolytes took aim at Social Security’s disability insurance program, a favorite target of conservative Republicans. During an appearance on the CBS program “Face the Nation” in 2017, Trump’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, led the charge.

“Do you really think that Social Security disability insurance is part of what people think of when they think of Social Security?” Mulvaney asked the moderator, John Dickerson. “I don’t think so. It’s the fastest-growing program. It grew tremendously under President Obama. It’s a very wasteful program, and we want to try and fix that.”

Dickerson did not push back. President Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, had added disability coverage to Social Security in 1956, six decades earlier. Not only was disability not the “fastest-growing program,” it had been shrinking — falling from a peak of 11 million beneficiaries, including disabled workers and their dependents, in 2013, to 10.4 million when Mulvaney was speaking; the rolls would continue to decline, falling to about 8.5 million in 2023.

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As for the assertion that disability was “wasteful,” the truth was that the disability error rate, which counts both overpayments and underpayments to beneficiaries, was well below 1% of all benefits, then-Acting Social Security Commissioner Carolyn Colvin advised Congress in 2012.

Trump advanced the attack on disability through his 2020 budget, which aimed to cut disability benefits by $70 billion over a decade. Mulvaney even bragged about hoodwinking Trump into violating his promise not to cut Social Security by telling him the cuts would be in “disability insurance” without revealing that disability insurance is part of Social Security.

Republicans consistently slander disability recipients as malingerers and layabouts. That’s based on the groundless notion that disability is easy to apply for and receive.

The disability certification process is long and difficult. Applicants must show that they have a physical or mental condition that prevents them from earning even $1,550 a month, or $18,600 a year, on their own. The approval process can take months, and even after appeals, only about 40% of applicants end up with benefits.

What’s important about the attacks on disability in Trump’s first term is that claims tend to rise along with the unemployment rate. The reason is that as job opportunities decline in general, the jobs available to the disabled become especially scarce. When desk jobs disappear and all that’s left are laborers’ positions, the opportunities for the physically and mentally challenged become only more limited.

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That could be a factor if Trump’s economic policies, such as his intention to jack up tariffs on all imported goods, produce a recession. If that happens, keep your eye on the palaver about disability; it’s almost certain to experience a resurgence.

One tried-and-true method of undermining Social Security is starving the program of administrative resources, a GOP hobby horse for years. “Social Security, today, is serving more customers than ever before with staffing levels Congress has reduced to 50-year lows,” O’Malley told the House Appropriations Committee earlier this month.

The consequences have included wait times on the program’s 800 number that ballooned to nearly an hour, O’Malley said. Of the average 7 million clients who called the number every month for advice or assistance, 4 million “hung up in frustration after waiting far too long.”

The backlog of initial disability determinations reached a near-record of 1.2 million applicants awaiting a decision, some for more than a year. The program estimated that about 30,000 applicants died in 2023 while awaiting decisions.

The crisis in customer service matters because it erodes public confidence that the program will be there for them when their turn comes to claim benefits.

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Then there’s Trump’s threat to deport as many as 11 million undocumented immigrants. An estimated 8.3 million unauthorized residents are actually part of the U.S. labor force. Social Security’s dirty little secret is that those who are working are actually improving the program’s fiscal health. That’s because they often submit falsified Social Security numbers to employers, so payroll taxes are withheld from their earnings — but because they don’t have legal Social Security numbers they can never collect benefits.

Furthermore, the mass deportations Trump has promised is likely to debilitate local and state economies. With the laborers needed to pick crops and build houses disappearing, those industries could stagnate, throwing native-born jobholders out of work. Less money will be coming into Social Security’s coffers. The overall loss to the program could be $300 billion to $1 trillion over a decade, the CRFB estimated.

The most dire prospect for Social Security in the coming term may be indifference to its future. Under a Democratic administration and with Democratic majorities in Congress, the prospects were good for the advancement of proposals to broaden and expand Social Security benefits.

Will anything like that happen in Trump’s next term? O’Malley tried to be judicious during his MSNBC appearance, but his opinion was clear: “I’m not sure,” he said, “that this administration is going to be in the business of strengthening and protecting Social Security.”

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Walmart’s EV chargers are coming to California with discounts for members

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Walmart’s EV chargers are coming to California with discounts for members

Walmart is rapidly expanding its network of electric vehicle chargers designed for customers to use while they shop.

The network could help fill gaps in EV infrastructure in states with greater need for chargers. Walmart, which has more than 5,000 locations in the U.S. and hundreds in California, says more than 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of one of its stores.

The chargers also offer an incentive for customers to choose Walmart — Walmart Plus members will receive a 10% discount off an average price of $0.46 per kilowatt-hour of energy at the company’s chargers.

Walmart chargers are already available at more than 75 locations in 17 states, with Texas boasting the most charging stations, followed by Florida and Arizona.

Matthew Nelson, Walmart’s director of energy policy, said last week on LinkedIn that the network will soon reach 29 states, including California.

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“We are delivering on the promise of affordable, reliable and convenient charging,” Nelson said in his post.

According to Walmart’s website, six charging stations are coming to California soon, though the company did not offer a specific timeline.

The chargers will be installed at stores in Antelope, Brea, Fresno, Stockton, Suisun City and Vallejo.

Most charging sites in California will include eight to 16 fast-charging stalls, said Walmart spokesperson Kelsey Bohl.

The company first announced plans in April 2023 to install its own EV chargers at Walmart and Sam’s Club stores, with a goal of installing thousands of chargers by 2030. Partnering with ABB E-Mobility and Alpitronic, it added 25 new charging sites this past May and six more in June.

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“Walmart is building a leading retail-integrated EV fast-charging network, focused on delivering an affordable, reliable and convenient charging experience where customers already shop,” Bohl said in an emailed statement. “Customers can charge while they shop, access stations through the Walmart app they already use, and benefit from affordable pricing.”

The charging stations already available include 612 individual charging stalls using 400-kilowatt chargers. Each stall has a dual charging cord with both Combined Charging System and North American Charging Standard connectors. The standard connectors, designed by Tesla, are smaller and lighter than the combined systems.

The primary way to pay for the chargers is through the Walmart app, but the company is also experimenting with built-in credit card readers to allow those without the app to use the stations.

Customers can check charger availability on the Walmart app. The company said the chargers will be available 24 hours a day.

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Waymo reports teen riders for bad behavior and delivers them to the police

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Waymo reports teen riders for bad behavior and delivers them to the police

Robotaxis could be turning into robocops.

A self-driving Waymo reported two teens to San Mateo, Calif., police on Monday after they were found drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns in the back of the vehicle.

According to a social media post from the San Mateo Police Department, officers detained two 15-year-olds after the Waymo they were riding in contacted the department and stopped in a parking lot until law enforcement arrived.

“Parents do you know where your teens are?” the San Mateo Police Department wrote on Facebook following the incident. “Waymo does!”

Officers removed both teens from the vehicle and determined they were using toy guns to shoot Orbeez out the windows. Orbeez are small, water-absorbing beads sold at toy stores.

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“Toy guns, water guns, and BB guns all pose real dangers, especially to an untrained eye,” the Police Department said. “The simple handling of them can cause fear in [passersby].” “

A video posted on Facebook shows at least five officers and a police dog responding to the scene and approaching the Waymo with their weapons raised.

Waymo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Waymo vehicles have internal cameras and microphones that may be used in an emergency or to “promote safety and security,” according to Waymo’s online support page.

The cameras are also used to ensure the vehicles are clean and to help find lost items, according to the support page.

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The company said it does not use facial recognition or other biometric identification technologies to identify individuals.

“In more urgent circumstances, support may access live video during a trip,” the Waymo page said.

The San Mateo Police Department’s Facebook post has garnered nearly 60 comments, with one user accusing Waymo of “snitching.”

“At least they got a designated driver?!” one user commented.

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Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination

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Commentary: How right-wing anti-transgender attacks led to a Supreme Court ruling upholding sex discrimination

At the Supreme Court, the unfounded fear of boys masquerading as girls in youth sports rolled the clock back on gender equality.

On the surface, the Supreme Court’s June 30 opinion upholding state laws barring transgender girls from women’s and girl’s sports teams looks like a victory for women’s rights.

The 6-3 opinion by Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh certainly presents itself that way. “Females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance,” Kavanaugh wrote. “Therefore, in contact sports, forcing female athletes to compete against males can create significant safety risks.” He also asserted that “forcing female athletes to compete against males can undermine competitive fairness.”

The ruling applied to prohibitions enacted in Idaho and West Virginia against “biological” males’ participation on women’s teams in public schools. Federal judges in both states overturned the bans. The Supreme Court majority restored them. The ruling essentially upholds similar bans enacted in 25 other states.

There was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let alone any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.

— Justice Sonia Sotomayor, demolishing the Supreme Court’s argument in favor of banning transgender girls from girl’s sports

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Kavanaugh, like Donald Trump and others in the anti-transgender camp, maintained that one’s gender is an immutable fact of life, established even before birth.

Anything else, Trump stated in an executive order he issued on inauguration day 2025, could only be the product of “gender ideology extremism.” The U.S., his order stated, recognizes “two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.” That’s a “biological truth,” he declared.

In his own version of this overconfident and factually insupportable conclusion, Kavanaugh wrote: “As all agree, females and males have inherent physical differences relevant to athletic performance.”

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Science recognizes that some people are “born with sex traits that don’t fit into typical male or female patterns,” to cite a discussion on the Cleveland Clinic web page on the topic “intersex.” The condition “may involve chromosomes, hormones, reproductive organs or genitals.”

From a psychological standpoint, medical science recognizes “gender dysphoria” as a real condition often requiring counseling and medical intervention such as the use of puberty blockers and hormones to stave off the development of secondary sex characteristics until the condition can be resolved.

No one disputes that there are physical differences between the sexes. Few would dispute that on average or even at the median, males may be bigger and more powerful than females, or that in certain contact sports the difference may be telling and on occasion dangerous.

But that’s not the same as asserting that the physical differences between males and females invariably mean that men will invariably prevail over women in all competitions or that their participation will endanger women.

The International Olympic Committee — in a policy statement Kavanaugh cited incompletely — says that in “most running and swimming events,” males have a 10% to 12% advantage over women. That’s a range that would accommodate the full spectrum of outcomes — transgender females win, cisfemales win, they tie. (The “cis” prefix denotes those living consistent with their birth gender.)

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West Virginia and Idaho addressed this ambiguity by banning transgender women from all girls’ teams. So under their rules transgender girls can’t play football or soccer with cisgirls. But what’s the argument in favor of banning them from the 100-yard dash, or cross-country track, or diving, or archery?

But something else is going on here. The Supreme Court’s ruling was almost preordained, given the years-long campaign by conservatives to demonize transgender individuals as if they’re members of an alien species.

It will be recalled that during his presidential campaign, Trump spun a despicable fantasy in which children were kidnapped in school and secretly subjected to sex-change operations.

Trump’s executive order wiped out policies aimed at protecting transgender adults from discrimination. He moved to outlaw gender-affirming medical therapies for anyone under 19 by cutting off federal funding for healthcare institutions that provide such care.

He banned transgender individuals from serving in the military and ordered federal prison officials to move transgender inmates into the general populations consistent with their birth genders, which exposes them to physical assault. (Federal Judge Royce Lamberth of Washington, D.C., has blocked the government from transferring three transgender women into the male prison population or terminating their hormone treatments.)

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I wrote during Trump’s first term, when his anti-transgender policies were still gestating, that the goal was to show that “one can target any community, as long as it doesn’t have a strong political voice or political power. These are the actions of bullies and cowards, pretending to be strong.”

Last year, the Supreme Court struck its first blow against transgender rights by upholding a Tennessee law banning transgender care, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for minors. Similar laws have been enacted in 25 other states. The majority in that ruling by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. was identical to the one in the June 30 ruling — Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.

Who are the targets of this ideological campaign? They number only about 1.6 million U.S. adults, or one-half of 1% of the U.S. population. About 300,000 adolescents ages 13 to 17, or 1.4%, identify as transgender, according to a study by UCLA School of Law.

In West Virginia, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor observed in her dissenting opinion, “there was no record of any transgender person participating in school sports in the State, let along any ‘problem’ with transgender students … creating unfair competition or unsafe conditions.”

In endorsing the flat bans directed at transgender women in Idaho and West Virginia, Kavanaugh argued that any attempt to implement case-by-case judgments of students’ requests to join sports teams inconsistent with their biological gender would create “an enormous practical and administrability problem.”

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Is that so? That wasn’t the case in Maine, where the annual K-12 population is more than 170,000. There, a committee was charged with determining whether a student’s participation in a sport consistent with their gender identity but inconsistent with their biological sex would “result in an unfair athletic advantage” or present a risk of injury to others. The committee held 56 hearings from 2013 through 2021, or an average of seven per year. During the entire time span, only four involved transgender girls. (The outcome of those hearings couldn’t be learned.)

It was Maine’s policy, one might recall, that provoked a confrontation between Trump and Maine Gov. Janet Mills at the White House last year, when Trump threatened to withhold federal funding from the state unless it barred transgender students from competing on women’s sports teams. “We’ll see you in court,” Mills snapped.

Whether the Idaho and West Virginia laws genuinely protect girls from unfair competition is questionable. (The Idaho law is styled the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act.”) In practice, the laws may subject women in public schools to “invasive sex verification procedures,” as educational expert George Theoharis of Syracuse University wrote after the court ruling.

They’re also based on a retrograde view of women as fragile creatures needing men’s protection, Theoharis wrote — “the same logic that has historically been used to justify excluding women from making their own healthcare decisions and girls from rigorous math and science; that physically demanding work is simply beyond them.” (There don’t appear to be any state laws barring transgender women from competing in men’s sports.)

Becky Pepper-Jackson, the plaintiff in the West Virginia case, in which she is identified only as B.P.J., is the only transgender girl who sought to join girl’s teams — track and cross-country — in the state. That was in 2021, just after West Virginia passed its law and she was about to enter sixth grade. She didn’t appear to pose any competitive risk to others on the track and cross-country teams she applied to join — her lawyers told the Supreme Court that on those no-cut teams, she “came in near the back.”

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Anyway, she had not gone through male puberty, which theoretically might have endowed her with a competitive advantage, because she had been taking puberty blockers and female hormones.

Thanks to the court’s ruling, Sotomayor observed in a dissent joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, West Virginia can deny Becky access to school sports “because it thinks they have an inherent athletic advantage, even if the facts show that they do not.”

B.P.J., Sotomayor wrote, “cannot practice on girls’ teams, even if she would not take anyone’s spot in an eventual competition, even if everyone who tries out for the team makes it, and even if having the chance to participate could aid immensely in treating B. P. J.’s gender dysphoria.”

So whose interest was really protected by the Supreme Court?

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