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Round Robin: Evaluating Virginia Basketball’s 3-0 Start

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Round Robin: Evaluating Virginia Basketball’s 3-0 Start


With three games of data collected, we’ve learned quite a bit about the 2024-2025 Virginia basketball team, but many questions are still unanswered and there is still a great deal to learn about the Cavaliers, especially as they head to the Bahamas for a couple of tough non-conference matchups against ranked opponents.

As we evaluate what we’ve seen from UVA so far, four members of the Virginia Cavaliers On SI writing staff – William Smythe, Aidan Baller, Val Prochaska, and Matt Newton – are going to answer some questions and give their impressions of this year’s Virginia team through the first three games of the season.

What’s your impression of Virginia’s 3-0 start? What has surprised you so far? 

William: It’s an encouraging start, and you should always be happy with a 3-0 record (unless you’re 2024-25 Syracuse) heading into a tough non-conference slate this weekend. I believe that Coach Ron Sanchez did a tremendous job against Villanova of tailoring the offense to Isaac McKneely and his sharpshooting ability even while keeping the tempo painstakingly slow. I’ve been most surprised, however, by the dual-package of Andrew Rohde and Dai Dai Ames on the court against the Wildcats. The former might get pushed more to a wing role if sophomore forward TJ Power fails to find his shot, yet Rohde’s ascendance could result in an extra ball-handler, distributor, and potential shot creator appearing alongside the Kansas State transfer.

Aidan: Cautiously optimistic is the best way to put it. Ron Sanchez has checked the boxes in earning three solid wins but the Cavaliers still need to be truly tested. The two biggest surprises this season are Virginia’s dominant three-point shooting, showcased best against Villanova, and Jacob Cofie, who has delivered double-digit scoring in all three games.

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Val: Despite all the supposed change and newness this season was supposed to represent — the new coach, the three transfers (who were expected to immediately fill in at the top of the lineup) and the two freshmen (who were not redshirting,) the emphasis on getting into the offensive sets faster and a heavily tweaked offensive scheme — this team still looks very much like last year’s team.  Last year the team averaged 60.1 possessions.  This year the team is slower at 58.3 possessions.  Every year the team has a game where the bucket looks as big a manhole cover, and those are exciting games to watch, but every team can hang around.  Virginia shot an absurd 56% from beyond the arc, but only beat Villanova by 10 points.

Matt: I’ve been moderately impressed by Virginia’s 3-0 start. The wins over Campbell and Coppin State didn’t (and shouldn’t) move anyone, but the victory over Villanova was a good sign that the Cavaliers can compete and beat a talented, albeit poorly coached major conference foe. This week will tell us a great deal about who the Hoos actually are this season.

Virginia has shot the three-ball well so far, but where will the buckets come from if the threes aren’t falling? 

William: We’re familiar with the mantra, “live by the three, die by the three.” While ‘Nova caught the brunt end of a Virginia shooting-spree, a 50+ 3PT% might not be sustainable. If Virginia can allow forward Elijah Saunders to outmuscle smaller defenders, it can unlock a safety valve for this offense. Saunders and sophomore center Blake Buchanan — a bit rusty to start his second-year campaign — shouldn’t face too many double teams on account of Virginia’s threats from outside. I’d lean towards Saunders as the more prolific scorer of the two, as he looked relatively comfortable operating in the paint through the first two games in particular. An offense capable of stretching the floor and creating one-on-one matchups in the frontcourt would be ideal.

Aidan: If the threes aren’t falling, I look to Elijah Saunders; the San Diego State transfer has shown he has a presence at and around the basket. His presence has the potential to open up points for Blake Buchanan and Jacob Cofie while helping them find their rhythm and confidence in the paint. Besides those three, the only other players who have shown glimmers of the midrange are Isaac McKneely, who has shown he can shoot from anywhere, and Taine Murray, who may not have played against Villanova but showed his ability to get to the basket in the first two games.

Val: If Virginia is going to be able to win games when the threes aren’t raining down, it will be because the Hoos are getting points at the rim.  The team is never going to fast break so it will mean that Elijah Saunders has found his post game, that the Blake Buchanan – Jacob Cofie two-man high-low game is growing, and that Isaac McKneely is hunting his mid-range game.  I’m not confident that these three things will happen per se, but the season is still young and the potential is there.  The most notable tweak to the offense is entry pass into a big at the top of the key which leads to a host of new screening actions as well as the dribble hand off.  Virginia’s continuity ball screen/Sides offense had long passed it’s expiration date, but this addition to the offensive arsenal seems much more sustainable than the brief fling Tony Bennett had with the Five-Out offensive set during the Sam Hauser/Trey Murphy year.  Virginia has a higher ceiling than they’ve had in the past four-five years.

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Matt: Elijah Saunders’ post game and hook shot will be the key, just as Anthony Gill’s paint production was a huge asset to the Malcolm Brogdon Virginia teams in 2015 and 2016. Blake Buchanan still needs a bit of help developing his touch on his hook shots, but UVA running the ball through Buchanan above the free throw line is an exciting new wrinkle to Virginia’s offense. With that said, I’m personally content with the Cavaliers living and dying by the three this season. They have the shooters for it and the resultant spacing should allow more opportunities to attack the rim when the threes aren’t falling.

What will TJ Power’s role be going forward?

William: Despite his ineffectiveness from a scoring standpoint, I think Coach Ron Sanchez keeps Power in the starting lineup and allows him to experience the thrill of a breakout game (it’ll come eventually, right?). He hasn’t been proactive on offense and hasn’t been completely exposed on defense, but it’s possible that — at the moment — Power serves more of a glue-guy role as one of the appointed leaders of this new-look Virginia team. There aren’t many immediate threats to his playing time outside of guard Andrew Rohde, and that’s only if he’s playing the wing alongside Ames. I don’t know if I can assign a certain label to Power’s role. I fear that the realistic comparison is Jacob Groves, yet I’m confident he’ll crawl closer to his five-star billing once he sees a few threes go through.

Aidan: The former Duke sharpshooter has lacked sharpness in his first three outings for the team in Charlottesville. Considering his three-point shooting ability is the only dominant part of his game, if that’s missing, it’s highly problematic. Despite this, everyone knows Power’s capability to shoot, so keep letting him fire away until he finds his rhythm. It’s way too early to stop giving him minutes.

Val: Power was the #21 recruit two years ago coming out of high school.  His first three games of his Virginia career seem eerily similar to his first year at Duke.  He’s a tall guy with a reputation for being a good shooter, but all it is rep at this point.  Duke last year, and Virginia this year, play better when he is off the court.  Which is about as damning a thing as you can say about someone. I think Power’s ceiling is that of Jacob Groves, but I don’t know if he’s going to reach it this year.  For this year, I think Power will ultimately settle as the fourth big on the floor behind Buchanan, Saunders and Cofie.  Power should be good for three or four games a year where he gets in a groove and has a 4/7 night from beyond the arc.  Saunders and Cofie have each had a game where they’ve struggled with fouls so I think Power will get more minutes than he got at Duke, but at best he’ll be a super sub off the bench.

Matt: Even with his slow start, I’m hopeful that the UVA coaching staff will allow Power, who is still getting accustomated to this level of basketball after playing sparingly last season, time to get into a rhythm on both ends of the floor. I must admit that I’d hoped to see brighter signs of Power’s potential through these first few games, but it’s also too early to give up on the former five-star. Elijah Saunders said Power sometimes looks like the best three-point shooter on the team in practice. If we start to see evidence of that “possibly insulting to Isaac McKneely” statement in games, then Power could still be one of Virginia’s most important players this season. If not, then he’ll be relegated to spot bench minutes with his ceiling being the occasional three-point flurry in a handful of games. Power and the Hoos are certainly hoping the former is the case.

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Have your expectations for this season changed after three games? More specifically, what’s your prediction for Virginia’s two games in the Bahamas? 

William: Villanova doesn’t look like it has turned the corner in year three of Coach Kyle Neptune’s tenure, so it’s certainly not the litmus test we might’ve expected if we saw this scheduling four years ago. However, the expectations surrounding McKneely have ratcheted up, especially if Virginia works furiously to help him create his own three-point looks off of the dribble. This double-date in the Bahamas reminds me of the Main Event Classic in Vegas two years ago. Albeit under different leadership, an overlooked Virginia will take to a neutral court against No. 11 Tennessee. I predict a rock fight and late triumph over the Volunteers in a failed Igor Miličić Jr. Revenge Game. Now, I don’t know if the ‘Hoos have the talent to knock off one of the two other top-25 squads — Baylor and St. John’s — in the championship, even if Virginia is awfully familiar with two of the Bears’ starters. A win over Tennessee would be massive. Let’s just start there.

Aidan: My expectations have not changed much as this team has yet to be truly tested, although being 3-0 does feel good. Against Villanova, the Cavaliers comfortably cruised past the Wildcats without being tested in the clutch moments, which we will most certainly see this weekend. My predictions for the Bahamas are that the Volunteers will be too fast and teach Virginia a lot. Still, on night two, Virginia pulls itself together to leave the Continental Baha Mar Championship 1-1, with plenty of lessons learned.

Val: Not really.  Reports out of training camp were that Dai Dai Ames would be a more effective back up point guard, presumably to the now-departed Jalen Warley, than Dante Harris was last year for Reece Beekman.   I was never impressed with Warley at Florida State so I am much more excited to see how Ames grows.  I had no idea what to think of Cofie before the season started, but I now think he has the potential to be the second banana to McKneely.  His emergence is my biggest source of optimism for this season. I’m not much for predictions.  If you are betting man, do just the opposite of what I say and you’ll be living in a nice house soon.  I expect Virginia will go cold against Tennessee and get pounded by Tennessee and then bounce back for the second game.

Matt: I’m going to wait to give a real answer to that question about expectations until after this week. With a pair of games against ranked opponents ahead of them, the Cavaliers could come back from Bahamas with their first and second defeats of the season. I don’t need to see Virginia go 2-0 or even 1-1 in order to be encouraged about what this season could become, but Ron Sanchez and the Hoos must show they can at least compete with these talented and well-coached teams in order for me to be convinced that a successful season in the ACC is on the table for Virginia. As for a prediction, I agree with Val and Aidan that the most likely outcome is that the Cavaliers fall to Tennessee, but then win the second game against either Baylor or St. John’s.

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Va. governor concerned redistricting battle could make voters reluctant to cast ballot this fall – WTOP News

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Va. governor concerned redistricting battle could make voters reluctant to cast ballot this fall – WTOP News


Days after Virginia Democrats filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court as part of their ongoing redistricting battle, Gov. Abigail Spanberger said she’s focused on the fall midterm elections and ensuring voters are motivated to turn out.

Days after Virginia Democrats filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court as part of their ongoing redistricting battle, Gov. Abigail Spanberger said she’s focused on the fall midterm elections and ensuring voters are motivated to turn out.

After a bill signing at Inova Schar Cancer Institute on Wednesday, Spanberger made her most extensive public comments about the state’s redistricting plan. She cited the state’s May 12 deadline for any map changes, and said as a result, this year’s elections will proceed under the current map.

Spanberger’s remarks came a few days after Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down the Democrat-led redistricting push. Primaries in the state are scheduled for Aug. 4, with the November general election to follow.

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“What needs to happen is we need to focus on the task at hand, which is winning races in November,” Spanberger said.

“I believe, somewhat doggedly, that we will win two to four seats in the House of Representatives. … That is my goal. That is what I know is possible.”

The map Democrats proposed, experts said, could have resulted in a 10-1 Democratic majority representing Virginia in the U.S. House. But Republicans challenged the process Democrats in the General Assembly used to put the constitutional amendment before voters.

In a 4-3 opinion issued Friday morning, Virginia’s Supreme Court sided with the Republican challengers.

U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts gave Republicans until Thursday evening to respond to Democrats’ request for the emergency appeal.

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Spanberger defended the process the General Assembly used, adding: “I think I certainly would have wanted to, and did want to, see a different outcome with the Supreme Court ruling.”

Over three million people participated in the rare April special election, and Spanberger said she’s concerned those voters “have had the experience of casting a ballot in an election that was very important to them, including those on both sides of the referendum vote, only to have it be overturned, essentially, by the Supreme Court of Virginia.”

Elected officials, she said, will have to work to ensure “that people know that their votes do matter, and that when it comes to the ballot they’re going to cast — whether it’s for a primary over the summer or for the general election into the fall — that they shouldn’t feel depleted or defeated, that their votes matter.”

Spanberger called the appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court “important, but when it comes to the execution of elections, no matter the outcome in that case, we will be running our elections beginning next month with early voting on the current maps that we have.”

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What does ‘election’ mean? One answer doomed Virginia’s new congressional map | CNN

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What does ‘election’ mean? One answer doomed Virginia’s new congressional map | CNN


Virginia’s Supreme Court dealt a blow to Democrats last week in the tit-for-tat redistricting war playing out ahead of the midterms.

In a 4-3 ruling, justices nullified a new congressional map that could have given the Democrats four additional seats in the House of Representatives. Their argument centered on whether state lawmakers had followed proper procedure when they put a constitutional amendment on the ballot to allow for the redistricting. The procedural question hinged on a linguistic technicality: What constitutes an “election”?

EDITOR’S NOTE:  CNN’s “Word of the Week” brings you the meaning behind the words in the news.

Traditionally — and in Virginia’s case, under the requirements of the state constitution — states have redrawn their congressional districts every 10 years, when a new census comes out and the 435 members of the House are reapportioned according to the states’ new shares of the population. But President Donald Trump, facing dismal polls and the risk of losing his party’s already tenuous House majority, has urged Republican-controlled states to launch an aggressive mid-decade round of redistricting, in the hopes of gerrymandering Democratic seats off the map.

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Democratic-controlled states like California and Virginia have set out to draw gerrymanders of their own, aiming to wipe out Republican seats. Virginia voters, in a referendum last month, agreed to amend the state constitution to “temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections,” then to revert to the old rules after 2030.

That vote was meant to be the final part of the multistep process for amending the Virginia constitution. Before an amendment can go to a public referendum, it needs to be approved by the state legislature on two separate occasions: once before “the next general election,” and again after that election, under the newly chosen legislature.

The previous Virginia legislature passed the amendment on October 31, 2025. Election Day followed on November 4. The newly elected legislature then re-passed the amendment on January 16, 2026, to send it to the voters on April 21.

But four Virginia Supreme Court judges, three of them confirmed under Republican-controlled legislatures, ruled that the April voting was invalid. Although two successive legislatures had approved the amendment, the court argued that the first vote, back in October, had come too late — rather than voting before the election, as the constitutional timetable required, the legislature had voted after the 2025 general election was already happening.

In doing so, the court defined the “election” as having come into existence when early voting commenced on September 19, and not as merely taking place on Election Day. By the time Virginia’s General Assembly approved the amendment on October 31, the court argued, more than 1.3 million Virginians had already cast their ballots and therefore could not use their votes to express their approval or disapproval of the proposal.

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“The definition of ‘election’ has always broadly denoted the ‘act of choosing,’” Justice D. Arthur Kelsey wrote in the majority opinion.

Citing early dictionaries from lexicographers Samuel Johnson and Noah Webster, as well as legal dictionaries such as Black’s Law Dictionary, Kelsey devoted several pages of the opinion to parsing the meaning of an “election.” He argued that average citizens who cast their ballots early would likely understand themselves to be voting in the election. “This lexical sense of the noun ‘election’ must be distinguished from the noun phrase ‘election day,’” he wrote.

He continued, “The metes and bounds of an election begin with the point of casting votes and end with the point of receiving votes and closing the polls on the last day of the election. Election Day is the boundary marker for the last act constituting an election.”

The minority took issue with this definition. An election, the justices on the losing side countered, is the event that happens on Election Day.

“By focusing on the legislative history, dictionary definitions, and how legal scholars might interpret the term ‘election,’” Chief Justice Cleo Powell wrote in dissent, “The majority fails to apply the most basic tenet of interpretation of constitutional provisions: looking to the language of the constitution itself.”

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Powell argued that the majority’s definition of “election” contradicts how the word is defined in state and federal law. She cited a provision of Virginia’s constitution that states that the members of the House of Delegates “shall be elected … on the Tuesday succeeding the first Monday in November.” She also cited the Virginia code, which indicates that a “general election” is “an election held in the Commonwealth on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.”

To make its point, the dissent ventured into metaphysical considerations about the mechanics of time. Treating the early voting period as part of the election would create a “causality paradox,” the dissent argued. “An election is a process that begins with early voting, but early voting must precede an election by forty-five days,” Powell wrote. “The majority’s definition creates an infinite voting loop that appears to have no established beginning, only a definitive end: Election Day.”

The dissent argued that the majority’s definition of “election” poses other conundrums as well: For example, Virginia law stipulates that voters can’t be compelled to attend trials during the time of an election. Does this mean that the courts are effectively hamstrung for several weeks from the start of early voting to Election Day?

By some assessments, both sides made reasonable and solidly sourced arguments. But the degree to which they fixated on the definition of “election” seemed to strike at least one analyst as pedantic. Vox’s Ian Millhiser put it this way: “Rather than producing two eye-glazing opinions fighting over the meaning of a word whose definition appears to shift depending on both linguistic and historical context, the justices would have produced a better opinion if they had asked a more basic question: What is the relevant provision of the Virginia Constitution actually supposed to accomplish?”

That more basic question is, in some ways, harder to answer.

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The court’s majority wrote that the laborious process of amending the constitution gives voters both an indirect and a direct opportunity to voice their views on a proposed change, voting for or against the legislators who initially approve an amendment, and then voting on the amendment itself. But if the justices were concerned about the will of the 1.3 million early voters who cast their ballots before the legislators approved the redistricting amendment, they seemed to gloss over the more than 1.6 million Virginians who voted in favor of the new maps, says Carolyn Fiddler, a Virginia state politics expert who has previously worked for Democratic and progressive organizations.

“How can they say that voters didn’t have a say?” she says. “Voters had a say and a clear majority.”

The text of Virginia’s Constitution doesn’t expand on why the constitutional amendment process is structured the way it is. But what it doesn’t say is illuminating, says Quinn Yeargain, a law professor at Michigan State University. Virginia’s previous constitution, from 1902, specified that the legislature must publicize a proposed amendment to voters three months before the intervening election. When the constitution was revised in 1971, that requirement was omitted.

“So they effectively made it easier, then, to amend the constitution,” Yeargain says. “At that point, they knew exactly how to use the words to achieve the kind of thing the majority said that it was trying to achieve. And they took those words out.”

Democratic officials in Virginia have asked the US Supreme Court to reinstate the new map for the midterms, though the emergency appeal is unlikely to succeed.

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The Virginia Supreme Court ruling, with its insistence that an election begins at the first opportunity for balloting, stands in apparent contrast to other redistricting decisions. After the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act decision in Louisiana v. Callais made it harder for voters of color to challenge redistricting plans as discriminatory, Southern states have scrambled to redraw their congressional maps in ways that favor the GOP — in some cases, after early votes in primary elections had already been counted. The new maps will make this year’s House elections the least competitive on record, the journalist G. Elliott Morris wrote in his Substack newsletter Strength In Numbers.

The current redistricting war makes for a “deeply dissatisfying situation from beginning to end,” Yeargain says. On its own, Yeargain says he doesn’t much care for Virginia’s proposed redistricting amendment, but the nationwide struggle goes beyond the individual merits of each state’s plans.

“Instead, we’re asking a broader question,” he says. “And that is whether this year’s congressional elections are going to be legitimate in some form or another.”

What is an “election,” exactly? Virginia’s Supreme Court majority sought an answer in dictionaries, which define the word as the act or process of choosing. But who is doing the choosing? As Republicans aggressively redraw electoral maps at the behest of the president, and as Democrats attempt to counterbalance those efforts with their own redistricting, it appears that a more consequential election — one in which politicians choose their voters — is already well underway.

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Headlines from across the state: Virginia becomes first Southern state to mandate paid family and medical leave for workers; more …

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Headlines from across the state: Virginia becomes first Southern state to mandate paid family and medical leave for workers; more …


Here are some of the top headlines from other news outlets around Virginia. Some content may be behind a metered paywall:

Politics:

Virginia becomes first Southern state to mandate paid family and medical leave for workers. — Virginia Mercury.

Local:

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Former Richmond Free Press building sold to apartment developer for $2 million. — Richmond Times-Dispatch (paywall).

Cavalier Hotel property could be sold to real estate investment firm. — The (Norfolk) Virginian-Pilot (paywall).

Richmond judges take legal action against city government over courthouse conditions. — The Richmonder.

Sports:

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Ex-Virginia Tech basketball coach Johnson agrees to become Ferrum coach. — The Roanoke Times (paywall).

Weather:

For more weather news, follow weather journalist Kevin Myatt on Twitter / X at @kevinmyattwx and sign up for his free weather email newsletter. His weekly column appears in Cardinal News each Wednesday afternoon.

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