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Trump win has economists concerned US economy will fail to make soft landing

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Trump win has economists concerned US economy will fail to make soft landing

Investors this year have grown increasingly confident the US economy will achieve a “soft landing.”

But the election of Donald Trump as the nation’s next president has complicated the outlook.

And some economists now think it’s likely the US could face another inflation resurgence if Trump follows through with his key campaign promises.

“We are in the soft landing,” Nobel prize-winning economist and Columbia University professor Joseph Stiglitz said at Yahoo Finance’s annual Invest conference on Tuesday. “But that ends Jan. 20.”

Joseph Stiglitz at Yahoo Finance Invest conference. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Trump and his proposed policies have been viewed as potentially more inflationary due to the president-elect’s campaign promises of high tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for corporations, and curbs on immigration. Those policies could also pressure an already bloated federal deficit, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward for interest rates.

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“The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics, also acknowledged in a note this week there are “upside risks” to inflation “stemming partly from Trump’s proposed tariff and immigration policies.”

And investors have taken notice.

On Wednesday, the latest Global Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America highlighted increased expectations of a “no landing” scenario, in which the economy continues to grow but inflation pressures persist, leading to a higher-for-longer interest rate policy from the central bank.

Tariffs have been one of the most talked-about promises of Trump’s campaign. The president-elect has pledged to impose blanket tariffs of at least 10% on all trading partners, including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

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“It will be inflationary,” Stiglitz said. “And then you start thinking of the inflationary spiral. The prices go up. Workers will want more wages. And then you start thinking of what happens if others retaliate [with their own duties.]”

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari categorized a possible retaliation as a “tit-for-tat” trade war, which would keep inflation elevated over the long term.

“If inflation goes up, [Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell] is going to raise interest rates,” Stiglitz said.

“You combine the higher interest rates and the retaliation from other countries, you’re going to get a global slowdown. Then you have the worst of all possible worlds: inflation and stagnation, or slow growth.”

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Cornell Administrator Warren Petrofsky Named FAS Finance Dean | News | The Harvard Crimson

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Cornell Administrator Warren Petrofsky Named FAS Finance Dean | News | The Harvard Crimson

Cornell University administrator Warren Petrofsky will serve as the Faculty of Arts and Sciences’ new dean of administration and finance, charged with spearheading efforts to shore up the school’s finances as it faces a hefty budget deficit.

Petrofsky’s appointment, announced in a Friday email from FAS Dean Hopi E. Hoekstra to FAS affiliates, will begin April 20 — nearly a year after former FAS dean of administration and finance Scott A. Jordan stepped down. Petrofsky will replace interim dean Mary Ann Bradley, who helped shape the early stages of FAS cost-cutting initiatives.

Petrofsky currently serves as associate dean of administration at Cornell University’s College of Arts and Sciences.

As dean, he oversaw a budget cut of nearly $11 million to the institution’s College of Arts and Sciences after the federal government slashed at least $250 million in stop-work orders and frozen grants, according to the Cornell Daily Sun.

He also serves on a work group established in November 2025 to streamline the school’s administrative systems.

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Earlier, at the University of Pennsylvania, Petrofsky managed capital initiatives and organizational redesigns in a number of administrative roles.

Petrofsky is poised to lead similar efforts at the FAS, which relaunched its Resources Committee in spring 2025 and created a committee to consolidate staff positions amid massive federal funding cuts.

As part of its planning process, the committee has quietly brought on external help. Over several months, consultants from McKinsey & Company have been interviewing dozens of administrators and staff across the FAS.

Petrofsky will also likely have a hand in other cost-cutting measures across the FAS, which is facing a $365 million budget deficit. The school has already announced it will keep spending flat for the 2026 fiscal year, and it has dramatically reduced Ph.D. admissions.

In her email, Hoekstra praised Petrofsky’s performance across his career.

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“Warren has emphasized transparency, clarity in communication, and investment in staff development,” she wrote. “He approaches change with steadiness and purpose, and with deep respect for the mission that unites our faculty, researchers, staff, and students. I am confident that he will be a strong partner to me and to our community.”

—Staff writer Amann S. Mahajan can be reached at [email protected] and on Signal at amannsm.38. Follow her on X @amannmahajan.

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Where in California are people feeling the most financial distress?

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Where in California are people feeling the most financial distress?

Inland California’s relative affordability cannot always relieve financial stress.

My spreadsheet reviewed a WalletHub ranking of financial distress for the residents of 100 U.S. cities, including 17 in California. The analysis compared local credit scores, late bill payments, bankruptcy filings and online searches for debt or loans to quantify where individuals had the largest money challenges.

When California cities were divided into three geographic regions – Southern California, the Bay Area, and anything inland – the most challenges were often found far from the coast.

The average national ranking of the six inland cities was 39th worst for distress, the most troubled grade among the state’s slices.

Bakersfield received the inland region’s worst score, ranking No. 24 highest nationally for financial distress. That was followed by Sacramento (30th), San Bernardino (39th), Stockton (43rd), Fresno (45th), and Riverside (52nd).

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Southern California’s seven cities overall fared better, with an average national ranking of 56th largest financial problems.

However, Los Angeles had the state’s ugliest grade, ranking fifth-worst nationally for monetary distress. Then came San Diego at 22nd-worst, then Long Beach (48th), Irvine (70th), Anaheim (71st), Santa Ana (85th), and Chula Vista (89th).

Monetary challenges were limited in the Bay Area. Its four cities average rank was 69th worst nationally.

San Jose had the region’s most distressed finances, with a No. 50 worst ranking. That was followed by Oakland (69th), San Francisco (72nd), and Fremont (83rd).

The results remind us that inland California’s affordability – it’s home to the state’s cheapest housing, for example – doesn’t fully compensate for wages that typically decline the farther one works from the Pacific Ocean.

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A peek inside the scorecard’s grades shows where trouble exists within California.

Credit scores were the lowest inland, with little difference elsewhere. Late payments were also more common inland. Tardy bills were most difficult to find in Northern California.

Bankruptcy problems also were bubbling inland, but grew the slowest in Southern California. And worrisome online searches were more frequent inland, while varying only slightly closer to the Pacific.

Note: Across the state’s 17 cities in the study, the No. 53 average rank is a middle-of-the-pack grade on the 100-city national scale for monetary woes.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

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Why Chime Financial Stock Surged Nearly 14% Higher Today | The Motley Fool

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Why Chime Financial Stock Surged Nearly 14% Higher Today | The Motley Fool

The up-and-coming fintech scored a pair of fourth-quarter beats.

Diversified fintech Chime Financial (CHYM +12.88%) was playing a satisfying tune to investors on Thursday. The company’s stock flew almost 14% higher that trading session, thanks mostly to a fourth quarter that featured notably higher-than-expected revenue guidance.

Sweet music

Chime published its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results just after market close on Wednesday. For the former period, the company’s revenue was $596 million, bettering the same quarter of 2024 by 25%. The company’s strongest revenue stream, payments, rose 17% to $396 million. Its take from platform-related activity rose more precipitously, advancing 47% to $200 million.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meanwhile, Chime’s net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) more than doubled. It was $45 million, or $0.12 per share, compared with a fourth-quarter 2024 deficit of $19.6 million.

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On average, analysts tracking the stock were modeling revenue below $578 million and a deeper bottom-line loss of $0.20 per share.

In its earnings release, Chime pointed to the take-up of its Chime Card as a particular catalyst for growth. Regarding the product, the company said, “Among new member cohorts, over half are adopting Chime Card, and those members are putting over 70% of their Chime spend on the product, which earns materially higher take rates compared to debit.”

Chime Financial Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(12.88%) $2.72

Current Price

$23.83

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Double-digit growth expected

Chime management proffered revenue and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for full-year 2026. The company expects to post a top line of $627 million to $637 million, which would represent at least 21% growth over the 2024 result. Adjusted EBITDA should be $380 million to $400 million. No net income forecasts were provided in the earnings release.

It isn’t easy to find a niche in the financial industry, which is crowded with companies offering every imaginable type of service to clients. Yet Chime seems to be achieving that, as the Chime Card is clearly a hit among the company’s target demographic of clientele underserved by mainstream banks. This growth stock is definitely worth considering as a buy.

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