Connect with us

Alaska

ANALYSIS: Alaska’s post-election review – what does it mean?

Published

on

ANALYSIS: Alaska’s post-election review – what does it mean?


Two weeks ago, I published my predictions for the 2024 general election. You can find them here. It is time to review the actual election results and see where I was right and where I got it wrong.

1 – I predicted Donald Trump would win Alaska’s three electoral college votes and it wouldn’t be close. I was right. Based on the most recent unofficial results with 401 of 403 precincts reporting, Trump won by 55.5% to 40.43%. This prediction really wasn’t much of a stretch. Trump won Alaska the last two times he ran for president.

2 – I predicted Nick Begich would defeat Mary Peltola, but it would be a close election and, in a reverse RCV twist, Peltola could lose in an RCV runoff because of the campaign of a Democrat carpetbagger who lives outside the state, by the name of Eric Hafner.

Advertisement

My prediction was remarkably accurate. Begich beat Peltola by 49.45% to 45.45%. Although Begich is leading by a 4% margin, he failed to get the 50% +1 vote required by the crazy RCV system we use in this state. So, this race will go to an RCV automatic runoff.

Democrat Erich Hafner received almost 1% of the votes, which would have been enough to give Begich the race outright. Begich should easily win this contest, but whenever RCV comes into the picture, weird things can happen. Yet another reason to hate RCV, more on that later.

3 – I predicted Sarah Vance would win the State House District 6 race, but it would go to an RCV runoff because RCV permitted the continued participation of Republican Dawson Slaughter from Anchor Point. I was right on both accounts

Sarah Vance did win, but not with enough votes to win outright. This race will also go to an automatic RCV runoff. Vance should prevail in the runoff as she leads Brent Johnson by 47.69% to 42.85%, almost 5%. Dawson Slaughter received 9.26% of the votes. Most of his votes should go to Vance.

The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.

Slaughter’s continued participation in this race denied Sarah Vance an outright victory. Somebody in the GOP ought to pull Slaughter aside and explain to him how politics works. Slaughter just torpedoed his political career in the GOP. Republicans have long memories and many of them will hold a grudge against Slaughter if he runs in any future election. Vance should prevail in the RCV runoff, but the biggest loser in this race is not Brent Johnson, it is Dawson Slaughter’s political future.

Advertisement

4 – I predicted Ballot measure 1, which raises the minimum wage would pass, and voters would come to regret it. This issue was passed by a wide margin by voters believing they are voting for their own pay raise. They don’t realize that as employees become more expensive, employers find ways to work without them, like using more automation.

I was right on the first part of this prediction, and only time will tell if higher minimum wages results in fewer minimum wage workers in Alaska, like it has in California after they passed a similar measure.

5 – I predicted Ballot Measure 2, repealing RCV would also pass. Alaskans hate this voting system that was foisted off on us by outside interest groups and dark money. The issue of RCV caught our state unaware in 2020 when it originally and only barely passed, supported by large amounts of money from groups outside of our state. When Mary Peltola’s first election victory in 2022 occurred, it woke all Alaskans up to the flaws in the RCV system. Fortunately, because Ballot Measure 2 has passed repealing RCV, we will not have this fraudulent voting system in future elections. This should be a lesson for other states considering similar measures.

So, if I was right on these issues, where did I get it wrong? The only thing I missed was my prediction of high voter turnout. I predicted a high turnout in a presidential election year that would be in the high 60% range, approaching 70%. The actual turnout in House District 6 was only 50.12%.

In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, voter turnout in District 6 was 66.47% and 69.19%, respectively. How could we underperform by this wide of a margin in a very polarizing election year that should have meant more interest in the election? I believe that many voters were intimidated by the RCV process and didn’t vote. They chose not to participate because they were confused by how to vote and didn’t want to get it wrong. If this is correct, it is a big indictment of the confusing RCV process and future elections should see a big increase in participation.

I went 5 out of 6 in my predictions, but what does it all mean? There were decisive Republican victories both statewide and nationally. This election was a repudiation of Democrats and Democrat policies. Everyday Americans turned out in record numbers and rejected the woke ideology that the Democrats have based their governance on for the past four years.

Americans don’t want the weird policies that Democrats are trying to force on the country. They don’t want to be forced to take experimental injections in order to keep their jobs. They don’t want boys playing girls sports. They don’t want runaway inflation just because politicians in Washington and Juneau want to reward their political allies with never ending deficit spending.

This election was a massive repudiation of the Democrats, and they need to wake up to the fact that their policies and their party are not wanted by the vast majority of Americans. The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.

Advertisement

The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.

Click here to support the Alaska Watchman.



Source link

Alaska

Man with same name as Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan can appear on GOP primary ballot, state’s Supreme Court rules

Published

on

Man with same name as Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan can appear on GOP primary ballot, state’s Supreme Court rules


The battle of the Dan Sullivans is on. 

The Alaska Supreme Court ruled Monday that a man with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan can challenge the sitting lawmaker in the state’s GOP Senate primary in August. The high court upheld a ruling from a lower court judge that cleared the way for Daniel J. Sullivan to appear on the primary ballot, reversing a decision by state officials earlier this month that he was ineligible because he was allegedly trying to confuse voters.

The state Supreme Court directed Alaska’s Division of Elections to decide how Daniel J. Sullivan should be listed on the ballot “within the confines of existing Alaska ballot design law.”

The conflict is taking place in one of the country’s most closely watched Senate elections. The sitting Sen. Sullivan is running for a third term, but former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is vying to challenge him, setting up what could be an unusually competitive race in a deep-red state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in almost 20 years.

Advertisement

The senator has called his same-name competitor a “sham candidate” and accused him of trying to trick voters and help Democrats flip the seat. Daniel J. Sullivan — a retired teacher and former U.S. Forest Service employee from Petersburg, Alaska — has denied those allegations and insisted he is both qualified and genuinely interested in running for Senate.

Daniel J. Sullivan and sitting Sen. Dan Sullivan, both of whom are running in Alaska’s GOP Senate primary.

Karen Dillman via AP / Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images


About two weeks ago, the Alaska Division of Elections determined that the challenger Sullivan could not appear on the ballot, arguing his paperwork “was not filed in order to declare an actual good-faith candidacy, but was instead filed with a purpose to confuse or mislead.”

Advertisement

In a letter to the candidate, Director Carol Beecher pointed to the fact that Daniel J. Sullivan had initially requested to appear on the ballot as “Dan Sullivan,” the same name format as the senator. She also wrote that he hadn’t previously been affiliated with the state Republican Party, had a website design that “appears to be deliberate[ly]” similar to the senator’s campaign site and had worked with a political consultant with links to Democratic candidates.

Daniel J. Sullivan asked a state court to reverse the decision. On Friday, Judge Thomas Matthews ruled in his favor, finding the non-senator Sullivan met the requirements to run for U.S. Senate and the state didn’t have the authority to exclude him based on “good faith.”

“The court does not minimize the Division’s concern that voters should not be misled,” the judge wrote. But he added that “Alaska election law gives the Division tools to address that concern,” including regulating how candidates appear on the ballot.

With ballots set to be printed this week, the issue was appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court on an expedited basis, with both sides filing court papers over the weekend.

The state Division of Elections asked the high court to overturn Matthews’ ruling, arguing it would “leave Alaska constitutionally required to permit bad-faith ballot access.” The agency said it reached its conclusion about Daniel J. Sullivan after it received a complaint from the National Republican Senatorial Committee “credibly alleging” he was seeking to “cause voter confusion” and made a “bewildering” request to appear on the ballot with the senator’s middle initial. 

Advertisement

If Daniel J. Sullivan is permitted to remain on the ballot, the state asked the Alaska Supreme Court to allow it to print his full name and list his party affiliation as “nonpartisan” to “ensure voters are not forced to guess between two nearly identical names.”

The Alaska Republican Party and several GOP-led states filed amicus briefs siding with Alaska.

Daniel J. Sullivan’s lawyers, meanwhile, argued the state “lacked any basis in Alaska law to exclude Mr. Sullivan from the ballot” and didn’t have the power to look into his “private motivations.” They wrote that state law doesn’t give officials the power to keep qualified candidates off the ballot due to potential confusion.

“[All] that Mr. Sullivan asks here is to be listed on the ballot, and the Division is obviously empowered to do so in a non-confusing manner,” his lawyers wrote.

Following oral arguments, the high court sided with Daniel J. Sullivan in a two-page order late Monday, and said it would issue a fuller opinion at a later date.

Advertisement

Jeffrey Robinson, an attorney for Daniel J. Sullivan, told CBS News his legal team is “grateful” for the Alaska Supreme Court’s decision to “affirm Judge Matthews’ well-reasoned, thorough order vacating the Division’s unlawful decision to exclude Mr. Sullivan as a candidate.”

“We expect that the Division will act in full compliance with existing Alaska ballot design law in its preparation of the ballots,” Robinson said in an email.

The senator’s campaign spokesperson, Nate Adams, said: “We’re disappointed in the court’s decision because as the sham candidate Dan J. Sullivan’s lawyers made clear in their legal arguments, the only reason he is running is to deceive voters and manipulate Alaska’s election system.”

“However, we are encouraged by the fact that the Director of the Division of Elections will be able to use her expertise to differentiate between the Petersburg fraud and the incumbent — Senator Dan Sullivan — to the benefit of Alaska voters,” Adams said.

Advertisement



Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Alaska

Jesuits say goodbye to Alaska at Bethel ceremony

Published

on

Jesuits say goodbye to Alaska at Bethel ceremony


The first Jesuit missionaries in Alaska sailed up the Yukon River in 1887. By the turn of the 20th century, the religious order of the Catholic Church had as many as 50 Jesuits in the state.

Now, only two remain. And by the end of June, there will be none.

The Jesuits’ nearly 140 years in the state was honored at an event at Bethel’s Immaculate Conception Church on June 16. A procession of priests wearing long white gowns with red hems walked down the aisle to open the event. The Bishop of the Diocese of Fairbanks, Stephen Maekawa, thumped the ground with a shimmering silver staff known as a clozier as he approached the altar.

Bishop of the Diocese of Fairbanks, Steven Maekawa, walks toward the altar at the Immaculate Conception Church in Bethel.

“My brothers and sisters, we gather together to celebrate this wonderful and blessed occasion to acknowledge the love of God and the work of God through the 139 year mission of the Society of Jesus of the Jesuit fathers,” Maekawa said to open the event.

Advertisement

A traditional Catholic mass followed, with readings in both English and Yup’ik. During the sermon, Maekawa acknowledged the vastness of the Fairbanks diocese, and the tremendous amount of work done by the Jesuits to establish it.

“All of the 46 churches of the Diocese of Fairbanks that we currently have were established by either the Jesuit fathers or by direction of a Jesuit bishop,” Maekawa said. “We have a long history of the Society of Jesus’ presence and ministry here in all of Alaska.”

The Jesuits are an order within the Catholic Church, akin to the Dominicans or Franciscans. They have a reputation for taking on some of the Catholic Church’s most remote assignments.

That missionary spirit brought the Jesuits to the Yukon River in 1887, where they built churches, schools, and ministries. Without their work, Catholicism may not have taken root in huge swaths of Alaska, particularly among Alaska Native communities.

The Immaculate Conception Church in Bethel.
The Immaculate Conception Church in Bethel.

But the Jesuits leave a complicated legacy. Their methods of converting Native people to the religion, particularly in the first half of the 20th century, created generational traumas still felt to this day.

Advertisement

Fr. Sean Carroll is the provincial of the Jesuits West Province, which oversees Alaska and nine other states.

Father Sean Carroll, provincial of the Jesuits West Province, speaks at an event recognizing nearly 140 years of Jesuit service in Alaska.
Fr. Sean Carroll, provincial of the Jesuits West Province, speaks at an event recognizing nearly 140 years of Jesuit service in Alaska.

“Thank you for all that you have taught us about who Jesus is and how to love and serve Him wholeheartedly,” Carroll said. “I also thank you for your patience with us. For there have been times when we have sinned and when we have hurt you.”

Missionaries, including the Jesuits, forcefully converted and assimilated Alaska Native people into Western culture and religion. Students at Jesuit-run boarding schools were forced to abandon their Native languages and physically punished when caught speaking languages other than English. Native dancing and drumming were also banned.

The Jesuits West Province maintains a list of 150 Jesuits with credible claims of sexual abuse against minors or vulnerable adults. A quarter of the accused Jesuits served in Alaska at some point in time.

“I ask for your forgiveness for all that we have done that was not rooted in Christ and love for Him, and for when we did not value your culture nor recognize the presence of God in you,” Carroll said.

Advertisement

Carroll gave the order to withdraw from the state last spring. A big issue was the recruitment of Jesuits willing to travel and serve in remote villages. He told the congregation that the Jesuits’ work would continue, just without a permanent presence.

Father Rich Magner, one of the two remaining Jesuit priests in Alaska, attends a ceremony in Bethel.
Fr. Rich Magner, one of the two remaining Jesuit priests in Alaska, attends a ceremony in Bethel.

Fr. Rich Magner is one of the two remaining Jesuit priests in Alaska. His last day serving Chevak, Hooper Bay, and Scammon Bay is June 30.

“We all always knew coming in, or should have known, that we’re not going to be here forever. It’s going to be mission accomplished at some point,” Magner said. “And then we hand it off to the diocese that we’ve helped create, and so that’s a good feeling.”

Magner’s next stop is a Clinical Pastoral Education residency in Tacoma, Washington.

The other remaining priest, Fr. Tom Provinsal, first came to Alaska in 1968 to teach. A fond memory, he said, was meeting Elders that practiced traditional subsistence lifestyles.

Advertisement

“Some of the grandmothers, their fingers were just all bent with arthritis and stuff like that, you know, their whole lives they’ve been working out in the cold and the wet, doing food, sewing, all that kind of stuff,” Provinsal said. “I’d say I just feel very privileged to have come when I did come and to see that.”

Provinsal returned in 1975 as a priest and has served in the region ever since. After moving away, he plans to take a five month sabbatical. What happens next, he said, is in God’s hands.

Two lines formed in the aisle for communion at the end of the mass. After taking communion, Bethel’s Parish Administrator Susan Murphy gave a final thank you.

“It’s difficult to say goodbye to people who have been a part of our lives for so long,” Murphy said. “We know that you have done what was yours to do, and have taught us to do what is ours to do. We are grateful.”

Jesuit priests form a row along the altar of Bethel's Immaculate Conception Church as members of the congregation lift their arms and pray.
Jesuit priests form a row along the altar of Bethel’s Immaculate Conception Church as members of the congregation lift their arms and pray.

Dominic Hunt, a Yup’ik deacon that flew in from Emmonak for the event, led the congregation through a final prayer.

Advertisement

“Bless them with your wisdom, that they may be a word of hope, a world in need. We ask this through Christ, our Lord. Amen,” Hunt said.

About 70 people posed for a photo on the altar – priests, deacons, parishioners, Elders and children — many of them smiling, some standing quietly.

The photo doesn’t tell the whole story. But it’s a moment when gratitude, grief, and memory all shared the same room.

Bishop of the Diocese of Fairbanks, Steven Maekawa, stands in the middle of a crowd waiting to take a photo at Bethel's Immaculate Conception Church.
Bishop of the Diocese of Fairbanks, Steven Maekawa, stands in the middle of a crowd waiting to take a photo at Bethel’s Immaculate Conception Church.





Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Alaska

Alaska Supreme Court to take up case on Dan J. Sullivan, decision expected by Tuesday

Published

on

Alaska Supreme Court to take up case on Dan J. Sullivan, decision expected by Tuesday


JUNEAU, Alaska (KTUU) – The Supreme Court of Alaska will be taking up the case of the State of Alaska, Division of Elections v. Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr.

The oral arguments will be held Monday at 10 a.m. via Zoom, according to an order and opening notice.

The document also specifies that a decision is expected to be made before noon on Tuesday.

According to documents from the Division of Elections, the state must start printing ballots at noon on the same day.

Advertisement

This comes after an Anchorage Superior Court Judge ordered Dan J. Sullivan on to the ballot Friday.

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com

Copyright 2026 KTUU. All rights reserved.



Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending