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ANALYSIS: Alaska’s post-election review – what does it mean?

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ANALYSIS: Alaska’s post-election review – what does it mean?


Two weeks ago, I published my predictions for the 2024 general election. You can find them here. It is time to review the actual election results and see where I was right and where I got it wrong.

1 – I predicted Donald Trump would win Alaska’s three electoral college votes and it wouldn’t be close. I was right. Based on the most recent unofficial results with 401 of 403 precincts reporting, Trump won by 55.5% to 40.43%. This prediction really wasn’t much of a stretch. Trump won Alaska the last two times he ran for president.

2 – I predicted Nick Begich would defeat Mary Peltola, but it would be a close election and, in a reverse RCV twist, Peltola could lose in an RCV runoff because of the campaign of a Democrat carpetbagger who lives outside the state, by the name of Eric Hafner.

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My prediction was remarkably accurate. Begich beat Peltola by 49.45% to 45.45%. Although Begich is leading by a 4% margin, he failed to get the 50% +1 vote required by the crazy RCV system we use in this state. So, this race will go to an RCV automatic runoff.

Democrat Erich Hafner received almost 1% of the votes, which would have been enough to give Begich the race outright. Begich should easily win this contest, but whenever RCV comes into the picture, weird things can happen. Yet another reason to hate RCV, more on that later.

3 – I predicted Sarah Vance would win the State House District 6 race, but it would go to an RCV runoff because RCV permitted the continued participation of Republican Dawson Slaughter from Anchor Point. I was right on both accounts

Sarah Vance did win, but not with enough votes to win outright. This race will also go to an automatic RCV runoff. Vance should prevail in the runoff as she leads Brent Johnson by 47.69% to 42.85%, almost 5%. Dawson Slaughter received 9.26% of the votes. Most of his votes should go to Vance.

The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.

Slaughter’s continued participation in this race denied Sarah Vance an outright victory. Somebody in the GOP ought to pull Slaughter aside and explain to him how politics works. Slaughter just torpedoed his political career in the GOP. Republicans have long memories and many of them will hold a grudge against Slaughter if he runs in any future election. Vance should prevail in the RCV runoff, but the biggest loser in this race is not Brent Johnson, it is Dawson Slaughter’s political future.

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4 – I predicted Ballot measure 1, which raises the minimum wage would pass, and voters would come to regret it. This issue was passed by a wide margin by voters believing they are voting for their own pay raise. They don’t realize that as employees become more expensive, employers find ways to work without them, like using more automation.

I was right on the first part of this prediction, and only time will tell if higher minimum wages results in fewer minimum wage workers in Alaska, like it has in California after they passed a similar measure.

5 – I predicted Ballot Measure 2, repealing RCV would also pass. Alaskans hate this voting system that was foisted off on us by outside interest groups and dark money. The issue of RCV caught our state unaware in 2020 when it originally and only barely passed, supported by large amounts of money from groups outside of our state. When Mary Peltola’s first election victory in 2022 occurred, it woke all Alaskans up to the flaws in the RCV system. Fortunately, because Ballot Measure 2 has passed repealing RCV, we will not have this fraudulent voting system in future elections. This should be a lesson for other states considering similar measures.

So, if I was right on these issues, where did I get it wrong? The only thing I missed was my prediction of high voter turnout. I predicted a high turnout in a presidential election year that would be in the high 60% range, approaching 70%. The actual turnout in House District 6 was only 50.12%.

In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, voter turnout in District 6 was 66.47% and 69.19%, respectively. How could we underperform by this wide of a margin in a very polarizing election year that should have meant more interest in the election? I believe that many voters were intimidated by the RCV process and didn’t vote. They chose not to participate because they were confused by how to vote and didn’t want to get it wrong. If this is correct, it is a big indictment of the confusing RCV process and future elections should see a big increase in participation.

I went 5 out of 6 in my predictions, but what does it all mean? There were decisive Republican victories both statewide and nationally. This election was a repudiation of Democrats and Democrat policies. Everyday Americans turned out in record numbers and rejected the woke ideology that the Democrats have based their governance on for the past four years.

Americans don’t want the weird policies that Democrats are trying to force on the country. They don’t want to be forced to take experimental injections in order to keep their jobs. They don’t want boys playing girls sports. They don’t want runaway inflation just because politicians in Washington and Juneau want to reward their political allies with never ending deficit spending.

This election was a massive repudiation of the Democrats, and they need to wake up to the fact that their policies and their party are not wanted by the vast majority of Americans. The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.

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The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.

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Sand Point teen found 3 days after going missing in lake

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Sand Point teen found 3 days after going missing in lake


SAND POINT, Alaska (KTUU) – A teenage boy who was last seen Monday when the canoe he was in tipped over has been found by a dive team in a lake near Sand Point, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Alaska’s News Source confirmed with the person, who is close to the search efforts, that the dive team found 15-year-old Kaipo Kaminanga deceased Thursday in Red Cove Lake, located a short drive from the town of Sand Point on the Aleutian Island chain.

Kaminanga was last seen canoeing with three other friends on Monday when the boat tipped over.

A search and rescue operation ensued shortly after.

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Alaska Dive Search Rescue and Recovery Team posted on Facebook Thursday night that they were able to “locate and recover” Kaminanga at around 5 p.m. Thursday.

“We are glad we could bring closure to his family, friends and community,” the post said.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated when more details become available.

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com

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Opinion: Homework for Alaska: Sales tax or income tax?

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Opinion: Homework for Alaska: Sales tax or income tax?


iStock / Getty Images

This is a tax tutorial for gubernatorial candidates, for legislators who will report to work next year and for the Alaska public.

Think of it as homework, with more than eight months to complete the assignment that is not due until the November election. The homework is intended to inform, not settle the debate over a state sales tax or state income tax — or neither, which is the preferred option for many Alaskans.

But for those Alaskans willing to consider a tax as a personal responsibility to help fund schools, roads, public safety, child care, state troopers, prisons, foster care and everything else necessary for healthy and productive lives, someday they will need to decide on a state income tax or a state sales tax after they accept the checkbook reality that oil and Permanent Fund earnings are not enough.

This homework assignment is intended to get people thinking with facts, not emotions. Electing the right candidates will be the first test.

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Alaskans have until the next election because nothing will change this year. It will take a new political alignment led by a reality-based governor to organize support in the Legislature and among the public.

But next year, maybe, with the right elected leadership, Alaskans can debate a state sales tax or personal income tax. Plus, of course, corporate taxes and oil production taxes, but those are for another school day.

One of the biggest arguments in favor of a state sales tax is that visitors would pay it. Yes, they would, but not as much as many Alaskans think.

Air travel is exempt from sales taxes. So are cruise ship tickets. That’s federal law, which means much of what tourists spend on their Alaska vacation is beyond the reach of a state sales tax.

Cutting further into potential revenues, state and federal law exempts flightseeing tours from sales tax, which is a particularly costly exemption when you think about how much visitors spend on airplane and helicopter tours.

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That leaves sales tax supporters collecting from tourists on T-shirts, gifts for grandchildren, artwork, postcards, hotels, Airbnb, car rentals and restaurant meals. Still a substantial take for taxes, but far short of total tourism spending.

An argument against a state sales tax is that more than 100 cities and boroughs already depend on local sales taxes to pay for schools and other public services. Try to imagine what a state tax piled on top of a local tax would do to kill shopping in Homer, already at 7.85%, or Kodiak, Wrangell and Cordova, all at 7%, and all the other municipalities.

Supporters of an income tax say it would share the responsibility burden with nonresidents who earn income in Alaska and then return home to spend their money.

Almost one in four workers in Alaska in 2024 were nonresidents, as reported by the state Department of Labor in January. That doesn’t include federal employees, active-duty military or self-employed people.

Nonresidents earned roughly $3.8 billion, or about 17% of every dollar covered in the report.

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However, many of those nonresident workers are lower-wage and seasonal, employed in the seafood processing and tourism industries, unlikely to pay much in income taxes. But a tax could be structured so that they pay something, which is fair.

Meanwhile, higher-wage workers in oil and gas, mining, construction and airlines (freight and passenger service) would pay taxes on their income earned in Alaska, which also is fair.

It comes down to what would direct more of the tax burden to nonresidents: a tax on income or on visitor spending. Wages or wasabi-crusted salmon dinners.

Larry Persily is a longtime Alaska journalist, with breaks for federal, state and municipal public policy work in Alaska and Washington, D.C. He lives in Anchorage and is publisher of the Wrangell Sentinel weekly newspaper.

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Nome brothers summit Mt. Kilimanjaro, carry Alaska flag to third major peak

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Nome brothers summit Mt. Kilimanjaro, carry Alaska flag to third major peak


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – Two brothers from Nome recently stood at the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa, planting an Alaska flag at 19,000 feet above the African plains.

The Hoogendorns completed the seven-day climb — five and a half days up and a day and a half down — trekking through rainforest, desert, and alpine terrain before reaching snow near the summit. The climb marks their third of the world’s seven summits.

Night hike to the top

The brothers began their final summit push at midnight, hiking through the night to reach the top by dawn.

“It was almost like a dream,” Oliver said. “Because we hiked through the night. We started the summit hike at midnight when you’re supposed to be sleeping. So, it was kind of like, not mind boggling, but disorienting. Because you’re hiking all night, but then you get to the top and you can finally see. It’s totally different from what you’d expect.”

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At the summit, temperatures hovered around 10 degrees — a familiar range for the Nome brothers. Their guides repeatedly urged them to put on jackets, but the brothers declined.

“We got to the crater, and it was dark out and then it started getting brighter out,” Wilson said. “And then you could slowly see the crater like illuminating and it’s huge. It’s like 3 miles across or something. Like you could fly a plane down on the crater and be circles if you want to. Really dramatic view.”

A team of 17 for two climbers

Unlike their previous expeditions, the brothers were supported by a crew of 17 — including porters, a cook, guides, a summit assistant, and a tent setup crew.

The experience deviated from their earlier climbs, where they carried their own food, melted snow for water, and navigated routes independently.

“I felt spoiled,” Wilson said. “I was like, man, the next mountain’s gonna be kind of hard after being spoiled.”

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Alaska flag on every summit

Oliver carried the same full-size Alaska flag on all three of his major summits, including in South America and Denali in North America, despite the added weight in his pack.

“I take it everywhere these days,” Oliver said. “It’s always cool to bring it out. And then people ask, you know, ‘where’s that flag from?’ Say Alaska.”

When asked about his motivation for the expeditions, Wilson said “I guess to like inspire other people. Because it seems like a lot of people think they can’t do something, but if you just try it, you probably won’t do good the first time, but second time you’ll do better. Because you just got to try it out. Believe in yourself.”

Background and next goals

The Hoogendorns won the reality competition series “Race to Survive: Alaska” in 2023. In 2019, they were the first to climb Mount McKinley and ski down that season. Oliver also started a biking trip from the tip of South America to Prudhoe Bay with hopes of still completing it.

Kilimanjaro is their third summit. The brothers said they hope to eventually complete all seven summits, with Mount Vinson in Antarctica among the peaks they are considering next… all while taking Alaska with them every step of the way.

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