Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania: Deciphering the Polls
Because it’s a must-win for Harris, I used a couple of recent polls to take a closer look.
A version of this article originally appeared on Jonathan Alter’s substack Old Goats, which you can subscribe to here.
Yes, the news from North Carolina is good. The self-described “Black Nazi” (Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson) might just bring down the guy who read Hitler’s speeches, dined with Nazis, and, last week, told Jews he would blame them if he lost. I see a bumper sticker: “Trump and Robinson—Perfect Together.”
But don’t put North Carolina in the Kamala Harris column just yet. The state has only voted for a Democrat once (Barack Obama in 2008) since 1976. It is, as some tar-heel Democrats admit, structurally Republican at the presidential level. That still likely leaves the race as Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Without North Carolina or Georgia, Harris cannot win without it.
Let’s stipulate: We shouldn’t rely too much on polls, either individual ones or polling averages. And even improved transparency can’t account for fundamental flaws, including embarrassingly poor response rates that skew samples. Would you answer a call on your mobile phone from an unknown number? I didn’t think so.
The scariest thing I’ve seen lately is a reminder that a Washington Post/ABC News poll two weeks before the 2020 election showed Joe Biden up in Wisconsin by 17 points, and he won there by a whisker. The 2020 Pennsylvania polls weren’t off by as much, but they still predicted a much bigger win than Biden received there. So the new NBC News and CBS News polls showing Harris with a four- or five-point lead nationally might be significant directionally, but that’s about it.
For all of their problems, I have to admit that I still respect these polls, including recent ones in Pennsylvania by The Washington Post and NYTimes/Siena. They’ve made adjustments to account for past errors and remain well-regarded in the (broken) polling industry, for whatever that’s worth.
That makes it even more disappointing that these pollsters contacted voters during a terrible post-debate week for Donald Trump (the period when eating pets and Laura Loomer were in the news) and still found the race to be a statistical dead heat — or close to it. The Times/Siena and a few other polls showed Harris up modestly in Pennsylvania, but not enough to think that state is anything but very close.
Yes, Harris has momentum and some presidential races do break sharply at the last minute. But right now, it’s looking as if we won’t get the big Harris win that could shut up the election deniers on Election Night and put MAGA in the rearview mirror.
The only way we might achieve that decisive result is if after Trump sees all the anti-Trump protesters dressed up like chickens outside his events — and Harris raises his cowardice in dodging the proposed October 23 debate — he relents, as Harris’s strategist, Brian Fallon, predicts. Fallon thinks that Trump is incapable of passing up a huge TV audience, and he’s probably right. If Harris kicks his ass again, which she probably will, the undecideds may swing more sharply toward her.
In the meantime, the nightmare scenario — a Trump win — is still very real, especially if he carries Pennsylvania. So today, I’m paying special attention to polling in the Keystone State, though I’m told no one who lives in Pennsylvania calls it that.
The Pennsylvania electorate is about 25 percent Catholic, with fewer than 50 percent of its voters college-educated. In 2020, that helped Biden, who is Catholic and — before he became unpopular in the state — had some working-class appeal. Now Trump leads among Pennsylvania Catholics by 18 points. Biden carried Lackawanna County — which contains Scranton, his hometown — by eight. (In 2016, Hillary won that area by three.) Unfortunately, Scranton is simply not Kamala Country. Nor is Erie County in northwest Pennsylvania. And “Pennsyltucky” — all of the rural areas of the state — is overwhelmingly pro-Trump, despite hundreds of infrastructure projects underway there thanks to the Biden Administration.
That leaves the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia metro areas, where Harris must run up big majorities. Even if she does that, she has to cut into Trump’s huge margins in the rural counties at least a little in order to win.
The Post poll shows how deeply Trump’s lies have penetrated Pennsylvania. Surprisingly, the top issue there is not the economy, immigration, health care (the largest employer in the state), or abortion but “protecting democracy.” Good news, right? Not exactly. When asked which candidate is best equipped to protect democracy, 48 percent say Harris, and 45 percent choose Trump, an insignificant gap. Nationally, about 40 percent believe the 2020 election was stolen. Those are Trump base voters, and there’s no changing their minds.
Like voters in other states, Pennsylvanians have a peculiar cognitive dissonance on the economy. While two-thirds think the national economy is “poor” or “not so good,” two-thirds are optimistic about their own financial condition. I figure these folks are in the 33 percent of the electorate who say they receive most of their news from social media and Fox News. (Only 7 percent say they get their news most often from “national print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal”).
Harris has an advantage on abortion, with the Post poll showing 64 percent say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. However, among voters who think the economy and immigration are paramount, Trump has the backing of 65 percent and 80 percent, respectively.
While Trump’s 15-point margin among white Pennsylvania voters in 2020 exit polling has declined by a third, a good sign, he is doing surprisingly well in holding down Harris’s margins among Black voters — especially males. In 2020, Biden won 92 percent of the Black vote; Harris is currently winning 78 percent, according to the Post poll. This may be because Black voters in Pennsylvania have been bombarded with ads saying that Harris wrongly prosecuted young Black men as San Francisco D.A. Last week, Roger Stone signaled that another is coming that will feature a Black San Francisco woman who was carted off to jail in handcuffs because her daughter, a sickle cell anemia patient, was truant due to illness.
Harris won’t likely respond specifically to the sickle cell case, but she may engage on this issue more broadly. While her anti-truancy policies led to sharp educational gains among Black third graders, it might look defensive and off-message to point that out.
In better news, Harris leads Trump by 12 percentage points among Pennsylvania voters in union households and a comparable margin among the rank-and-file themselves. In 2020, Trump and Biden were in a statistical tie for that vote. The enthusiastic endorsement of Shawn Fain of the United Auto Workers and several Teamsters locals may prove crucial for Harris.
The NYTimes/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll held some surprises. Respondents found Trump to be the more “extreme” candidate, 74 percent versus 46 percent. That only sounds good to the uninitiated. “Extreme” is apparently no longer a slur in a good chunk of America. In 1964, Barry Goldwater said in his acceptance speech at the Cow Palace in San Francisco that “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice.” This may have played well with the GOP base but it helped doom Goldwater, who lost to Lyndon Johnson that fall in a landslide. Nowadays, among voters in the Times/Siena poll who say “extreme” described them at least “somewhat well,” Trump won by more than 50 percentage points. And he doesn’t seem to be paying a price for his extreme views among independents.
Harris is making strides in convincing voters that she’s not a San Francisco liberal. It helped when she told Oprah that she wouldn’t hesitate to shoot an intruder. Even so, far more voters see her as too liberal than view Trump as too conservative, though this doesn’t account for independents and Democrats (like me) who would not describe Trump as conservative — because he isn’t. What true conservative is a protectionist, a budget-buster, and an authoritarian?
Both candidates are much more popular in Pennsylvania than they were last year. Trump’s approval rating is up nine points to 46 percent, while Harris’s has reached 51 percent, an astonishing improvement since July. The cross-tabs on “leaners” are ambiguous but appear to favor Harris, which could be critical late in the game. Her most significant advantage may be that she has a five-point edge on “caring about people like you.”The fact that this gap isn’t much wider — that so many voters are still fooled by Trump — is one of the reasons for my crisis of faith in the common sense of the American people. That’s a major theme of my forthcoming book, American Reckoning: Inside Trump’s Trial — And My Own, which will be published October 22. Please consider pre-ordering it now.
Jonathan Alter is an award-winning author, political analyst, documentary filmmaker, columnist, television producer, and radio host. He’s authored three New York Times bestsellers: The Center Holds: Obama and His Enemies (2013), The Promise: President Obama, Year One (2010), The Defining Moment: FDR’s Hundred Days and the Triumph of Hope (2006), and His Very Best: Jimmy Carter, a Life (2020). Alter has written for The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Washington Monthly, The New Yorker, Bloomberg, The Daily Beast, and other publications.
Some Pennsylvania towns make it easy to feel included within a day of arriving. In Lititz, summer concerts at Lititz Springs Park turn into informal reunions, with families setting up lawn chairs side by side and local shop owners joining once they lock their doors for the evening. In Boiling Springs, the path around Children’s Lake doubles as a daily check-in point where walkers greet each other by name before drifting into the cafés along Front Street. And in Ligonier, the Diamond and its bandstand pull residents downtown for markets and community events that rely on volunteers rather than outside organizers. The same pattern carries through the rest of the towns on our list.
Lititz
Lititz is in Lancaster County, about 6 miles north of the city of Lancaster. Founded in 1756, the town was named after a castle in Bohemia and initially served as a Moravian congregation settlement. Lititz is home to the Julius Sturgis Pretzel Bakery, established in 1861 as the first commercial pretzel bakery in the United States.
Lititz Springs Park, a historic community hub since 1756, hosts various yearly events, notably the well-known Lititz Fourth of July Celebration. For dining, the Appalachian Brewing Company provides locally brewed beers and a distinctive menu showcasing regional dishes. The Wilbur Chocolate Factory, a landmark since the late 1800s, includes a museum and shop where visitors can explore chocolate-making processes and buy unique confections.
Boiling Springs
Boiling Springs, in Cumberland County, owes its name to the natural artesian springs that maintain a constant temperature and were crucial to early ironworks in the area. Established in the 18th century, it is also part of the Appalachian Trail community, underscoring its long-standing connection to nature and history. The town’s historic district includes the Iron Furnace, dating to 1760 and a testament to Boiling Springs’ early industrial role.
The town features a variety of attractions for visitors and residents. Allenberry Resort and Playhouse, a historic venue since the mid-20th century, provides entertainment, dining, and lodging options. The Boiling Springs Tavern, founded in 1832, offers classic American cuisine in a historic environment. For outdoor enjoyment, Children’s Lake is perfect for fishing and relaxing walks, and the Appalachian Trail runs through the center of the community, offering great hiking opportunities.
Jim Thorpe
Jim Thorpe sits in the Lehigh Gorge in eastern Pennsylvania, and was originally known as Mauch Chunk and played a pivotal role in the coal and railroad industries. Renamed in 1954 to honor the legendary athlete Jim Thorpe, the town retains a Victorian era charm, with much of its architecture preserved and celebrated. This heritage is evident in attractions such as the Asa Packer Mansion, built in 1861 by a philanthropist and railroad magnate, which now serves as a museum.
Visitors to Jim Thorpe can choose from various recreation and dining options. The Lehigh Gorge Scenic Railway provides a scenic ride through the mountains, perfect for enjoying the area’s natural beauty. Dining choices include Moya, famous for its upscale American dishes, and Stone Row Pub & Eatery, offering a relaxed atmosphere with local ingredients. Outdoor lovers can enjoy boating and hiking at Mauch Chunk Lake Park, making the town an attractive destination.
Ligonier
Ligonier was established in the 1760s and features a rich colonial history highlighted by Fort Ligonier, a British fortification from the French and Indian War. The town square, known as the Diamond, is circled by original structures and a bandstand from the 19th century, reinforcing its historical ambiance.
Fort Ligonier functions as both a museum showcasing 18th-century artifacts and a venue for reenactments and educational activities. The Southern Alleghenies Museum of Art enriches visitors with American art exhibitions. Dining options in Ligonier include the historic Ligonier Tavern, known for its local cuisine, and The Wicked Googly, famous for its vibrant atmosphere and live music. For outdoor leisure, Ligonier Beach offers a distinctive swimming experience with a historic pool from 1925.
Wellsboro
Wellsboro, located in Tioga County, was established in 1806 and acts as the gateway to the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon, also known as Pine Creek Gorge. The town exudes nostalgic charm with its gas-lit streets and historic Victorian buildings, offering a window into its storied history. A prime example of this history is the Penn Wells Hotel, which has been serving visitors since the early 1900s.
For those wanting to explore Wellsboro, the restored 1920s movie theater, The Arcadia Theatre, regularly features films and performances, serving as a cultural center for locals and visitors. The Native Bagel offers a relaxed dining atmosphere with dishes made from locally sourced ingredients. Outdoor lovers can enjoy Leonard Harrison State Park, which offers stunning views of the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon, along with trails and picnic spots. Furthermore, the annual Pennsylvania State Laurel Festival attracts crowds with its parade, arts and crafts, and local food stalls, honoring the area’s cultural traditions.
Foxburg
Foxburg, situated along the Allegheny River in Clarion County, was founded in 1870. It is famous for being home to the oldest golf course still in operation in the United States, the Foxburg Country Club, established in 1887. This historical feature adds to its charming and distinctive character, blending small-town American charm with a deep golf tradition.
The Foxburg Wine Cellars offers tastings of locally produced wines, complemented by a scenic setting. For dining, the Allegheny Grille provides riverfront views alongside a menu featuring regional cuisine, emphasizing the town’s picturesque location. Culture enthusiasts can explore the American Golf Hall of Fame, located within the Foxburg Country Club, which houses a collection of golf memorabilia and artifacts. For outdoor activities, the nearby Allegheny River Trail offers miles of biking and walking paths, making Foxburg a destination with diverse appeal.
Honesdale
Honesdale serves as the county seat for Wayne County and was founded in 1826. It has historical significance as the terminus of the Delaware and Hudson Canal, pivotal in the transport of coal to major markets in the northeast. Notably, Honesdale is credited with being the site of the first commercial steam locomotive run on rails in the United States, the Stourbridge Lion, adding a rich layer to its industrial heritage.
The Wayne County Historical Society presents exhibits on canal and railroad history, shedding light on the town’s growth. For dining, visitors can choose the upscale Hotel Wayne, known for its fine dining and bistro bar, or the more relaxed Trackside Grill, offering views of the historic railroad. Outdoor lovers can visit Honesdale Park, which has walking paths and recreational facilities, serving as a popular venue for community events and gatherings.
Milford
Milford is situated at the crossroads of the Delaware River and the Pocono Mountains’ foothills. Established in 1796, it rapidly gained popularity as a resort in the 19th century, thanks to its scenic landscape and fresh mountain air. The town is also renowned for the Milford Historic District, which features a range of well-preserved buildings that reflect its prosperous history.
The Columns Museum houses the famous Lincoln Flag, believed to be stained with Abraham Lincoln’s blood from the night of his assassination, providing a profound historical experience. For dining, Bar Louis at the Hotel Fauchère offers a contemporary menu in a stylish setting, while the Waterwheel Café provides a rustic atmosphere with live music and local cuisine. Additionally, Grey Towers National Historic Site, the former home of Gifford Pinchot, founder of the U.S. Forest Service, offers guided tours and scenic grounds.
Mount Joy
Mount Joy was founded in 1759 and has a name derived from an old Irish ship, the “Mountjoy,” which played a pivotal role in breaking a siege during the Irish Confederate Wars. This town, nestled among the rich, rolling farmlands of the county, has historically been a hub for agriculture and today melds historic charm with modern vibrancy, evident in its revitalized downtown area.
Bube’s Brewery, an intact historic 19th-century brewery and museum, offers unique dining experiences in its catacombs and regularly hosts murder mystery dinners. The Country Table Restaurant is known for its comfort food and welcoming atmosphere, reflecting the town’s friendly spirit. For outdoor activities, Little Chiques Park provides scenic walking paths and picnic areas, perfect for family outings. Additionally, the annual “Mount Joy Winterfest” brings the community together with craft vendors, food, and entertainment, showcasing the town’s lively community spirit.
Lewisburg
Lewisburg is a vibrant town established in 1785. It is home to Bucknell University, established in 1846, which adds a youthful energy and cultural richness to the town. Lewisburg’s downtown is listed on the National Register of Historic Places, featuring well-preserved 19th-century architecture and a tree-lined main street that enhances its historic charm.
In terms of activities and dining, Lewisburg offers a variety of choices that cater to both residents and visitors. The Campus Theatre, one of the few remaining single-screen art deco movie theaters in the country, offers a unique cinematic experience. For dining, Elizabeth’s American Bistro provides a fine dining experience using local ingredients, while the Bull Run Tap House offers a more casual atmosphere with a comprehensive selection of craft beers. For outdoor enthusiasts, Hufnagle Park offers a green retreat in the heart of the town, complete with walking paths and garden areas, making it a popular gathering place for community events and casual recreation.
As we journey through Pennsylvania’s coziest corners, we discover that these small towns do more than just charm visitors with their picturesque settings and historical backdrops. They invite us into a world where community spirit thrives and every street and alley tells a story. These towns, from Lititz’s pretzel-perfumed air to Lewisburg’s university vibes, showcase the true heart of Pennsylvania through their unyielding warmth and hospitality. Whether you’re seeking a serene retreat or a peek into America’s storied past, these towns offer a refuge where friendliness is the native language.
Pennsylvania
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