Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania: Deciphering the Polls
Because it’s a must-win for Harris, I used a couple of recent polls to take a closer look.
A version of this article originally appeared on Jonathan Alter’s substack Old Goats, which you can subscribe to here.
Yes, the news from North Carolina is good. The self-described “Black Nazi” (Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson) might just bring down the guy who read Hitler’s speeches, dined with Nazis, and, last week, told Jews he would blame them if he lost. I see a bumper sticker: “Trump and Robinson—Perfect Together.”
But don’t put North Carolina in the Kamala Harris column just yet. The state has only voted for a Democrat once (Barack Obama in 2008) since 1976. It is, as some tar-heel Democrats admit, structurally Republican at the presidential level. That still likely leaves the race as Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Without North Carolina or Georgia, Harris cannot win without it.
Let’s stipulate: We shouldn’t rely too much on polls, either individual ones or polling averages. And even improved transparency can’t account for fundamental flaws, including embarrassingly poor response rates that skew samples. Would you answer a call on your mobile phone from an unknown number? I didn’t think so.
The scariest thing I’ve seen lately is a reminder that a Washington Post/ABC News poll two weeks before the 2020 election showed Joe Biden up in Wisconsin by 17 points, and he won there by a whisker. The 2020 Pennsylvania polls weren’t off by as much, but they still predicted a much bigger win than Biden received there. So the new NBC News and CBS News polls showing Harris with a four- or five-point lead nationally might be significant directionally, but that’s about it.
For all of their problems, I have to admit that I still respect these polls, including recent ones in Pennsylvania by The Washington Post and NYTimes/Siena. They’ve made adjustments to account for past errors and remain well-regarded in the (broken) polling industry, for whatever that’s worth.
That makes it even more disappointing that these pollsters contacted voters during a terrible post-debate week for Donald Trump (the period when eating pets and Laura Loomer were in the news) and still found the race to be a statistical dead heat — or close to it. The Times/Siena and a few other polls showed Harris up modestly in Pennsylvania, but not enough to think that state is anything but very close.
Yes, Harris has momentum and some presidential races do break sharply at the last minute. But right now, it’s looking as if we won’t get the big Harris win that could shut up the election deniers on Election Night and put MAGA in the rearview mirror.
The only way we might achieve that decisive result is if after Trump sees all the anti-Trump protesters dressed up like chickens outside his events — and Harris raises his cowardice in dodging the proposed October 23 debate — he relents, as Harris’s strategist, Brian Fallon, predicts. Fallon thinks that Trump is incapable of passing up a huge TV audience, and he’s probably right. If Harris kicks his ass again, which she probably will, the undecideds may swing more sharply toward her.
In the meantime, the nightmare scenario — a Trump win — is still very real, especially if he carries Pennsylvania. So today, I’m paying special attention to polling in the Keystone State, though I’m told no one who lives in Pennsylvania calls it that.
The Pennsylvania electorate is about 25 percent Catholic, with fewer than 50 percent of its voters college-educated. In 2020, that helped Biden, who is Catholic and — before he became unpopular in the state — had some working-class appeal. Now Trump leads among Pennsylvania Catholics by 18 points. Biden carried Lackawanna County — which contains Scranton, his hometown — by eight. (In 2016, Hillary won that area by three.) Unfortunately, Scranton is simply not Kamala Country. Nor is Erie County in northwest Pennsylvania. And “Pennsyltucky” — all of the rural areas of the state — is overwhelmingly pro-Trump, despite hundreds of infrastructure projects underway there thanks to the Biden Administration.
That leaves the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia metro areas, where Harris must run up big majorities. Even if she does that, she has to cut into Trump’s huge margins in the rural counties at least a little in order to win.
The Post poll shows how deeply Trump’s lies have penetrated Pennsylvania. Surprisingly, the top issue there is not the economy, immigration, health care (the largest employer in the state), or abortion but “protecting democracy.” Good news, right? Not exactly. When asked which candidate is best equipped to protect democracy, 48 percent say Harris, and 45 percent choose Trump, an insignificant gap. Nationally, about 40 percent believe the 2020 election was stolen. Those are Trump base voters, and there’s no changing their minds.
Like voters in other states, Pennsylvanians have a peculiar cognitive dissonance on the economy. While two-thirds think the national economy is “poor” or “not so good,” two-thirds are optimistic about their own financial condition. I figure these folks are in the 33 percent of the electorate who say they receive most of their news from social media and Fox News. (Only 7 percent say they get their news most often from “national print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal”).
Harris has an advantage on abortion, with the Post poll showing 64 percent say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. However, among voters who think the economy and immigration are paramount, Trump has the backing of 65 percent and 80 percent, respectively.
While Trump’s 15-point margin among white Pennsylvania voters in 2020 exit polling has declined by a third, a good sign, he is doing surprisingly well in holding down Harris’s margins among Black voters — especially males. In 2020, Biden won 92 percent of the Black vote; Harris is currently winning 78 percent, according to the Post poll. This may be because Black voters in Pennsylvania have been bombarded with ads saying that Harris wrongly prosecuted young Black men as San Francisco D.A. Last week, Roger Stone signaled that another is coming that will feature a Black San Francisco woman who was carted off to jail in handcuffs because her daughter, a sickle cell anemia patient, was truant due to illness.
Harris won’t likely respond specifically to the sickle cell case, but she may engage on this issue more broadly. While her anti-truancy policies led to sharp educational gains among Black third graders, it might look defensive and off-message to point that out.
In better news, Harris leads Trump by 12 percentage points among Pennsylvania voters in union households and a comparable margin among the rank-and-file themselves. In 2020, Trump and Biden were in a statistical tie for that vote. The enthusiastic endorsement of Shawn Fain of the United Auto Workers and several Teamsters locals may prove crucial for Harris.
The NYTimes/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll held some surprises. Respondents found Trump to be the more “extreme” candidate, 74 percent versus 46 percent. That only sounds good to the uninitiated. “Extreme” is apparently no longer a slur in a good chunk of America. In 1964, Barry Goldwater said in his acceptance speech at the Cow Palace in San Francisco that “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice.” This may have played well with the GOP base but it helped doom Goldwater, who lost to Lyndon Johnson that fall in a landslide. Nowadays, among voters in the Times/Siena poll who say “extreme” described them at least “somewhat well,” Trump won by more than 50 percentage points. And he doesn’t seem to be paying a price for his extreme views among independents.
Harris is making strides in convincing voters that she’s not a San Francisco liberal. It helped when she told Oprah that she wouldn’t hesitate to shoot an intruder. Even so, far more voters see her as too liberal than view Trump as too conservative, though this doesn’t account for independents and Democrats (like me) who would not describe Trump as conservative — because he isn’t. What true conservative is a protectionist, a budget-buster, and an authoritarian?
Both candidates are much more popular in Pennsylvania than they were last year. Trump’s approval rating is up nine points to 46 percent, while Harris’s has reached 51 percent, an astonishing improvement since July. The cross-tabs on “leaners” are ambiguous but appear to favor Harris, which could be critical late in the game. Her most significant advantage may be that she has a five-point edge on “caring about people like you.”The fact that this gap isn’t much wider — that so many voters are still fooled by Trump — is one of the reasons for my crisis of faith in the common sense of the American people. That’s a major theme of my forthcoming book, American Reckoning: Inside Trump’s Trial — And My Own, which will be published October 22. Please consider pre-ordering it now.
Jonathan Alter is an award-winning author, political analyst, documentary filmmaker, columnist, television producer, and radio host. He’s authored three New York Times bestsellers: The Center Holds: Obama and His Enemies (2013), The Promise: President Obama, Year One (2010), The Defining Moment: FDR’s Hundred Days and the Triumph of Hope (2006), and His Very Best: Jimmy Carter, a Life (2020). Alter has written for The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Washington Monthly, The New Yorker, Bloomberg, The Daily Beast, and other publications.
Pennsylvania
From Chocolate Avenue to the World Cup, how Hershey, Pennsylvania, shaped Christian Pulisic
HERSHEY, Pa. (AP) — Hershey may be known as the “Sweetest Place on Earth,” thanks to its chocolate-drenched origins, but the Pennsylvania community is also home to Christian Pulisic — the most accomplished and famous player on a U.S. national team that’s dreaming big as it co-hosts the World Cup.
“Hershey to me is everything — it’s where my family is from, it’s where I grew up,” Pulisic recently said on his Instagram account as he promoted limited-edition Pulisic’s Milk Chocolate Bars by the Hershey Company that feature custom wrappers with his signature. “It’s where I learned how to play. It’s just home.”
A billboard featuring U.S. soccer player Christian Pulisic is pictured on the side of the Hotel Figueroa, Monday, June 29, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)
Pulisic grew up in this south-central Pennsylvania community surrounded by farms and rolling countryside, where even the streetlights along Chocolate Avenue are shaped like Hershey’s Kisses. The community was founded in 1903 by Milton S. Hershey, the American businessman and philanthropist who also built homes for workers, a hotel and a theme park that Pulisic often visited with family.
More than 120 years later, the Hershey Company is still the economic engine of Chocolatetown, USA. But the “Man Behind the Chocolate Bar” now shares the hometown hero honor with the soccer player nicknamed “Captain America.”
Pulisic inspires young soccer players in Hershey
Pulisic’s hometown roots run deep, and during the World Cup, his community has rallied around him as the U.S. plays some of its most exciting soccer ever.
“It’s pretty amazing that he came from Hershey and played for my club,” said Hershey High School rising freshman Cecelia Stefanelli who, on a recent afternoon, kicked a ball to score a goal on her father at a field where Pulisic played.
The Americans will attempt to win their first World Cup elimination game in 24 years on Wednesday evening, when they face Bosnia-Herzegovina in the round of 32 in Santa Clara, California. They should have a healthy Pulisic after the star missed the second group-stage game with a calf injury and played only 33 minutes as a sub in the final group match against Turkey.
“I’d love if USA won the World Cup; it’d make me happy,” said Stefanelli, a center back who also plays for the Pennsylvania Classics soccer club. Pulisic often credits the structure and coaches at PA Classics, where he played for eight years, with helping develop his skills. In 2021, he returned to the club for a ribbon-cutting ceremony for new fields that he financed and helped design. It’s now known as the Pulisic Stomping Grounds.
The club is located in Lancaster County, surrounded by chicken and dairy farms that give off a pungent odor of fermenting feed and manure.
On a recent day, Liam Gustafson and Moussa Oumarou juggled a soccer ball and passed it back and forth as they warmed up for training in front of a huge collage of photos of Pulisic that trace from his childhood training to starring for the U.S. at the World Cup.
“It’s really special to see someone from around here, where we live, playing in the World Cup,” said Gustafson, a 17-year-old forward who dreams of playing pro soccer and calls Pulisic his role model. “It’s really inspiring to see someone who paved the way, so that we can do that someday.”
Pulisic’s path to USMNT stardom ran through Hershey
The road to soccer was paved early as Pulisic followed in the footsteps of his parents. He was born in Hershey on Sept. 18, 1998, to Kelley and Mark Pulisic, both former collegiate soccer players at George Mason University. His father went on to play pro indoor soccer for the Harrisburg Heat. The family moved to England for a year while Pulisic’s mother completed a Fulbright Program teacher exchange and their 7-year-old rising star played for the Brackley Town youth team.
“Mark and Kelley could write a playbook on how to raise a humble, smart, kind superstar, while maintaining family relationships,” said Tara Seymour, a family friend and retired health and physical education teacher at Hershey Middle School. She met the family at a soccer camp and became close friends with Pulisic’s mother.
“She just quietly said to me one time, ‘We have never seen anything like this.’ This is a kid who could juggle the soccer ball hundreds of times when he was in elementary school,” Seymour said. Pulisic, she said, would practice in his backyard for hours, trying to emulate the moves of pros he saw on TV.
“He has an intensity that couldn’t be taught,” she recalled. “I think he had the opportunity to go pro earlier or go to Europe earlier and they held back just to make sure emotionally and maturity-wise he was ready.”
When the family returned to Hershey, Pulisic joined PA Classics at the age of 10. The club’s president and co-founder Doug Harris said Pulisic’s talent allowed him to play with older age groups, and he was often the smallest player on the field.
“I think if you were to pull kids in the world who want to achieve the level of Christian Pulisic, you’d have millions that would step up, raise their hand. They’re all gifted; they all can play,” Harris said. “But there’s something fundamental about what Christian has been able to do and I’d credit Mark and Kelley Pulisic with a lot of that.”
Looking forward to the future of American soccer
The Americans’ only World Cup knockout win came on June 17, 2002, when they defeated Mexico 2-0 in the round of 16 in South Korea. Pulisic has said the team’s approach won’t change in this round and the mood remains light despite the high stakes.
“It’s just special to be here,” he said. “You just don’t want it to end.”
Pennsylvania Classic coaches, Brittney Jakobson, left, and Nick Jakobson, right, look at a banner of U.S. national team soccer player Christian Pulisic with their children, Declan Jakobson, who wears an Argentina jersey, and Camden Jakobson, wearing a Portugal jersey, at the club were Pulisic honed his skills in Manheim, Pa., on Monday, June 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Luis Andres Henao)
Ahead of the game against Bosnia-Herzegovina, PA Classics coaches Brittney Jakobson and Nick Jakobson took their children, Declan and Camden, to kick a ball at Pulisic’s former club. The Americans, they said, have a shot at winning the tournament. But their legacy goes beyond the trophy.
“Their goal is to inspire a generation and it’s really fun to see that happening in real time … to hear people going out and watching the games, to see people buying the jerseys,” Brittney Jakobson said.
“Pulisic, obviously, in the short term is a great kind of figure to follow,” said Nick Jakobson. “But he does very much encourage that it’s not just about him. It’s not about just these four years. It’s about the next eight, 12, 16. It’s forward-thinking, and they’re laying a good foundation for what we can build on.”
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See more of AP’s World Cup coverage here
Generic police lights (FOX 9)
A 10-year-old boy who allegedly robbed a Dollar Tree store in Pennsylvania is also accused of stabbing multiple times one of the employees trying to detain him.
Big picture view:
The Swatara Township Police Department reported that its officers were called around 5 p.m. on Monday to the discount store in Harrisburg where they found the boy being held by store employees.
Timeline:
After speaking with witnesses, officers determined that the grade-school-age child went into the store holding a fixed-blade knife, threatened an employee, and told her to give him all the money.
Customs officers use Heimlich maneuver to save choking toddler
The employee’s co-workers jumped in to help her. As they struggled to subdue the boy, he stabbed one of them multiple times, the police department reported. Its statement did not indicate how badly that employee was injured, only saying that medical treatment was needed.
Dig deeper:
The suspect was taken by officers to a detention facility where he was booked on counts of robbery, aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, and possessing an instrument of a crime.
The Source: Information for this article was taken from Swatara Township Police Department. This story was reported from Orlando.
PA Gov. Shapiro wants $4.7 billion from reserves to balance budget
Gov. Josh Shapiro’s rainy day-fund request to balance his 2026-27 budget proposal would be the largest in state history.
The Pennsylvania House of Representatives added two session days to its calendar this week while the Senate took off for an early holiday as another state budget will not be finalized on time.
House Speaker Joanna McClinton added voting sessions for 11 a.m. July 1 and 9:30 a.m. July 2. Senate Republicans voted to return at the call of President Pro Tempore Judy Ward, frustrating some Democrats.
Changes to the calendar throughout the year are routine, McClinton’s press secretary, Nicole Reigelman, told USA TODAY Network Pennsylvania. “Nothing specific led to it,” she said.
A late budget would mark the fifth time in as many years elected state officials missed the statutorily mandated June 30 deadline. Last year, it was not signed until Nov. 12.
“We’re walking out the door while the House is in session the next two days and the governor is in place to work with us here to get this done,” Sen. Vincent Hughes, a Democrat from Philadelphia, said on the Senate floor before voting against the recess that Republicans passed.
The Senate is not scheduled to return to session until Sept. 28. After July 2, the House’s next scheduled return is also Sept. 28. Both chambers could be called back at any time.
“I am highly confident we are well on track to deliver a responsible budget that will recognize our unique status as a divided government and deliver a responsible product to the people of Pennsylvania with no negative impacts,” Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman, a Republican who represents Indiana County, said on the Senate floor. “There’s no reason we can’t conclude our work early next week.”
Minority Leader Jay Costa, a Democrat from Allegheny County, disagreed and said returning July 5 would be inappropriate.
“Some may characterize talks as hopeful and seem to be coming together,” Costa said from the floor. “Based on my recent conversations, that doesn’t seem to be the case.”
But a budget could be getting close, according to one Republican state representative who requested anonymity. “There’s going to be very little policy in the budget,” the representative told USA TODAY Network Pennsylvania. “I take it to mean that there aren’t going to be major policy changes and negotiations will center around dollars and cents.”
The House passed a $53.3 billion budget plan in April with a bipartisan vote, but the Republican-controlled Senate has not acted on it. It would cost roughly 5.6% more than the state spent in the fiscal year that ends June 30.
“The Senate hasn’t passed a budget,” Reigelman said. “We’re proud that we got them something more than two months ago.”
That budget was performative, according to Republican Senate Majority Caucus Chair Kristin Phillips-Hill, who represents York County.
“It was really cute,” Phillips-Hill told USA TODAY Network Pennsylvania. “There is not enough money from taxpayers to pay for the budget they sent us. To me, that’s completely unacceptable.”
Republican legislators have opposed Gov. Josh Shapiro’s proposal to use $4.7 billion of rainy day funds to balance the budget. GOP leaders in the House and Senate have said excessive spending could downgrade the state’s credit rating and lead to future tax increases.
Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office projects a worsening deficit for the state that could reach $8.3 billion in three years.
Pittman said in an interview earlier in June that this budget has a “much different feel” since it lacks a big issue hanging over lawmakers the way a debate over mass transit funding lingered in 2025.
“We have an opportunity to pay our bills and reduce the deficit we’re facing and hopefully not dip into reserves any more than is absolutely necessary,” Pittman said June 26 in an interview on Indiana County radio station WCCS 101.1FM.
Proposals in the budget include new revenue from legalizing recreational marijuana and skill games. The state Legislature has until mid-October to decide if Pennsylvania will allow skill games after the state Supreme Court ruled on June 15 that they are illegal.
“The question is, how, given the Supreme Court ruling where they said these are slot machines, how do you delineate that taxation approach?” Pittman asked during his interview. “If we don’t do anything, these machines are gone. Period.”
State oversight for skill games would include licensing and regulations through the state’s Gaming Control Board. Slot machines in a casino are taxed at 52%, Pittman said.
The Independent Fiscal Office maintains that Shapiro’s revenue estimates for recreational marijuana and skill games exceed their own estimates by $4.4 billion over the next three fiscal years.
Mark Walters is the USA TODAY Network Pennsylvania statehouse reporter. Reach him atmwalters@usatodayco.com.
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