Gas prices in Wisconsin are now under $3 per gallon, on average, for the first time since last winter.

According to data from AAA, the average gas price per gallon in the state has fallen from $3.37 a month ago to under $2.98 on Monday. This also represents a significant drop from this time last year when Wisconsin’s average price was $3.66 per gallon.

Additionally, prices are dropping nationwide ― from $3.43 per gallon on average last month to about $3.21 on Monday, AAA says.

These are the lowest prices Wisconsin has seen since February 2024, data from GasBuddy.com shows, and they could approach the lowest seen nationwide in three years, Gas Buddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said.

So, what’s causing this steep drop in prices at the pump, and what can Wisconsinites expect in the coming months? Here’s what to know.

Gas prices are under $3 in Milwaukee and continue to decline

Average gas prices in the Milwaukee-Waukesha metro area are about $2.90 per gallon on Monday, AAA says.

This is down from about $3.02 per gallon last week, $3.44 a month ago and $3.60 at this time last year.

Why are gas prices going down in Wisconsin?

The incremental switch from more expensive lower-butane summer-blend gasoline to cheaper higher-butane winter-blend gasoline usually causes gas prices to drop each fall.

The Environmental Protection Agency requires refineries to produce summer gasoline from May 1 to Sept. 15 and retailers to sell it from June 1 to Sept. 15. Most stations across the country will begin switching back to winter gasoline on Monday, De Haan said.

However, in August, stations in Wisconsin and other Midwestern states were granted a waiver to make the switch to winter gasoline early this year after a tornado-related outage at a fuel refinery in Joliet, Ill., caused gas prices to skyrocket.

At this time last year, refinery issues in other areas of the country caused prices to be much higher than they are this year, De Haan said. “That’s why, all of a sudden, some states are looking at an 80-cent difference between today and a year ago. … Typically, if there aren’t refinery issues or hurricanes, what we’re seeing this year is normally what happens. Gas prices usually peak in the spring, and then, as summer progresses, gas prices usually trend slowly lower.”

Even before the typical Sept. 16 switch to winter gasoline, the reopening of schools and the slow down of summer road trips at the end of August tend to cause people to drive less, lowering the demand for gasoline, De Haan explained.

Additionally, GasBuddy.com data shows that crude oil prices are at their lowest in over a year, further helping drive gasoline prices down.

How will gas prices change in the fall and winter?

“With the change to winter gasoline happening today at most stations across the country, the outlook is bright for the national average to continue to make a run at falling to $2.99 per gallon for the first time since 2021,” De Haan said.

De Haan said he expects Milwaukee gas prices to remain below $3 for the remainder of the calendar year unless another refinery outage or other major global event occurs. Prices could drop between 10 and 25 cents per gallon over the next few weeks, he said.

“I don’t really think it’s going to get a whole lot better than $2.60 or $2.50,” he continued. “I think we’ll probably hang out in the mid-to-upper twos for much of the rest of the year. If there are any refinery issues or if things develop economically for better, then we could see the higher side of that, or potentially slightly over $3 a gallon.”

Where can I find the lowest gas prices in Milwaukee?

GasBuddy maintains a list of the cheapest gas prices in the Milwaukee area, based on reports from local GasBuddy users. As of Monday morning, the cheapest prices per gallon could be found at Costco in Menomonee Falls ($2.59), Kwik Trip in Colgate ($2.59), Costco in Pewaukee ($2.59) and Kwik Trip in Sussex ($2.59).

The lowest price within the city of Milwaukee can be found at Sam’s Club on 124th Street ($2.69), while numerous other Milwaukee stations are selling gas for $2.73 per gallon.

For an up-to-date list of the cheapest gas prices in the Milwaukee area, click here.