World

China’s Risky Power Play in the South China Sea

Published

1 year ago

September 15, 2024

China’s Risky Power Play in the South China Sea

China’s coast guard ships have swarmed and collided with Philippine boats. They have doused Philippine vessels with powerful water cannons. Chinese crew members have slashed inflatable crafts, blared sirens and flashed high-powered lasers at Filipino troops.

As China pushes to dominate the South China Sea, it is increasingly willing to use force to drive out the Philippines, a treaty ally of the United States. In recent months, China’s tactics have damaged Philippine boats and injured personnel, and raised fears of a superpower showdown in the strategic waterway.

A New Flashpoint

For months, the latest target of China’s power play was a Philippine coast guard ship, the Teresa Magbanua. The video above was taken by the crew of that ship, as a Chinese coast guard vessel collided into it late last month.

The episode was one of four confrontations between the two countries’ vessels, in just two weeks. The encounters were not only becoming more frequent, but they were also taking place in a new location — Sabina Shoal, a resource-rich atoll close to the Philippine mainland.

The two countries had in earlier months been facing off near another atoll in the disputed Spratly Islands, the Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese ships regularly harass Philippine boats trying to resupply sailors stationed on a beached warship. Now, their feud has expanded.

These are the places where China has confronted the Philippines since 2023.

Note: Incident locations are approximated from locations broadcasted by the Philippine and Chinese coast guard vessels. Other tools include lasers, knives, axes, and rocks.

The Philippines wants to control Sabina Shoal, an unoccupied atoll inside its exclusive economic zone. Sabina Shoal, which lies just 86 miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan and over 600 miles from China, is near an area rich in oil deposits, and on routes Manila considers crucial for trade and security.

“A hostile China would be able to strangle our maritime trade with the rest of Asia and most of the world from Sabina Shoal,” said Jay Batongbacal, a maritime security expert at the University of the Philippines. Sabina Shoal would make “a good staging ground for vessels that will interfere with Philippine maritime activities,” he said.

Manila anchored the Teresa Magbanua, one of its largest coast guard ships, at the Sabina Shoal in April to try to stop China from what the Philippines sees as efforts to try to build an island there.

The Philippine Coast Guard has pointed to piles of crushed and dead corals apparently dumped on the shoal as signs of Chinese land reclamation under way. China has denied the accusation. But the building and fortifying of artificial islands is a key part of how China has asserted its claims over contested waters hundreds of miles from its coast.

China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea, says its tactics are needed to defend its sovereignty. Beijing has rejected a ruling by an international tribunal in 2016 that China’s sweeping claim to the waters had no legal basis.

China accused the Philippines of trying to permanently occupy Sabina Shoal by parking the coast guard vessel on it, just as it had grounded the warship at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing even sent tugboats to Sabina Shoal, which some read as a threat to tow the Philippine ship away.

China has not resorted to guns. Rather, it is using what military theorists call gray zone tactics, aggressive moves that fall short of inciting all-out war. That includes imposing blockades, blasting water cannons and sailing dangerously close.

But the moves can still cause damage: The recent collision between Chinese and Philippine boats, for instance, left a three-foot hole on the Teresa Magbanua, as well as another Philippine vessel.

Damage on the Teresa Magbanua

Philippine Coast Guard via Associated Press

“If the Philippines insists on occupying more shoals, China will have no choice but to use all available measures,” said Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing-based research group. “There is no limit.”

On Sunday, after months of pressure from China, the Philippines said that the Teresa Magbanua had returned to port in Palawan. The Philippine statement sought to cast the move as following the accomplishment of the boat’s mission.

But it nodded to the challenges of remaining in the face of a Chinese blockade that prevented the ship from being resupplied, saying the crew had been “surviving on diminished daily provisions” and that some needed medical care.

The Philippines said the vessel had suffered structural damage from being rammed by the Chinese coast guard, but indicated that the boat would return after undergoing repairs.

Tensions on the Rise

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has taken on a more muscular approach against China than his predecessor did. He has beefed up the country’s alliance with the United States and invited journalists to join resupply missions at sea to highlight China’s actions.

China has called the United States “the biggest troublemaker stirring up unrest in the South China Sea.” Mr. Hu, the expert in Beijing, said that China has been compelled to use heavier-handed tactics because diplomacy with the Marcos administration has failed.

With both sides digging in, they are tangling with each other more often and more aggressively.

Confrontations between China and the Philippines

In one confrontation in June, China’s coast guard used axes, tear gas and knives to harass Philippine troops on a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese sailors punctured Philippine military boats and seized their equipment, including guns.

Eight Filipino soldiers were hurt, including one who lost a finger. The Philippine military called it the “most aggressive” Chinese action in recent history.

Source: Armed Forces of the Philippines via Facebook

That episode on June 17 made clear that tensions needed to be dialed down. The two sides briefly came to a “provisional agreement” on the Second Thomas Shoal, and the Philippines was able to conduct a resupply mission at the end of July. But officials from both countries have disputed the details of the agreement, raising questions about how long it will last.

“China’s overarching strategy is to dominate the South China Sea. We should not expect the de-escalation to last,” said Rommel Ong, a professor at the Ateneo School of Government in Manila and a retired rear admiral in the Philippine Navy. “Unless they attain that objective, their coercive actions will wax and wane depending on the situation.”

Since October, the Chinese coast guard has used water cannons against Philippine ships more regularly than it likely ever has in the long-running dispute. Collisions have also become more common.

In recent confrontations, China has routinely used water cannons.

Sources: Armed Forces of the Philippines; Philippine Coast Guard; China Coast Guard; Reuters; Storyful

Whenever the Philippines has attempted to sail to disputed atolls, ships from the Chinese coast guard, maritime militia, and navy have rapidly confronted them.

Some of the Chinese ships shadow the Philippine boats. Others cut across their paths. The ships swarm around the Philippine vessels to form a tight blockade.

This is how Chinese ships set up a blockade.

Note: Tracks show positions over the prior six hours. Location data not available for all vessels on scene. Times shown in Manila local time.

China, which boasts the world’s largest navy in terms of the number of vessels, has been deploying more boats to these disputed waters over the past year than it did previously. The Philippines sends on average a few ships on its resupply missions, which has mostly remained unchanged.

Mr. Hu, the Chinese expert, said that China’s show of strength in numbers is meant to deter the Philippines without resorting to lethal force. “If China sends only a small number of boats to stop the Philippines, they might have to use guns,” he said.

China has sent more ships to harass Philippine resupply missions.

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (C.S.I.S.)

Note: Data shows vessels counted during resupply attempts to Second Thomas Shoal.

From Aug. 27 to Sept. 2, a weeklong period, the Philippine military tracked 203 Chinese ships in contested areas in the South China Sea — the highest number recorded this year.

Tensions have risen at a time when the militaries of China and the United States have had limited contact. On Tuesday, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command held a rare video conference with Gen. Wu Yanan, the commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command, which oversees the South China Sea. The United States said such calls help “reduce the risk of misperception or miscalculation.”

During the call, Adm. Samuel Paparo urged China to “reconsider its use of dangerous, coercive, and potentially escalatory tactics” in the South China Sea. China, in its own statement about the call, said only that the two sides had an in-depth exchange of views.

On Thursday, though, Lieutenant General He Lei, a former vice president of the People’s Liberation Army’s Academy of Military Sciences, struck a more hawkish note.

“If the United States insists on being a plotter that pushes others to stand on the front line to confront China, or if it has no other choice but to challenge us by itself,” he told reporters at a security forum in Beijing, “the Chinese people and the People’s Liberation Army will never waver.”

Chinese flagged boats anchored at Sabina shoal.

Jes Aznar for The New York Times

World

Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling

Published

8 hours ago

January 11, 2026

Press Room

Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling

MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.

The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.

But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.

CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP

These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.

“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”

The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.

Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.

Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.

ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?

Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.

But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.

The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.

Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.

OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE

Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.

Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.

Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”

He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.

“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.

“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”

Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Purchase Licensing Rights

Gram Slattery is a White House correspondent in Washington, focusing on national security, intelligence and foreign affairs. He was previously a national political correspondent, covering the 2024 presidential campaign. From 2015 to 2022, he held postings in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Santiago, Chile, and he has reported extensively throughout Latin America.

Humeyra Pamuk is a senior foreign policy correspondent based in Washington DC. She covers the U.S. State Department, regularly traveling with U.S. Secretary of State. During her 20 years with Reuters, she has had postings in London, Dubai, Cairo and Turkey, covering everything from the Arab Spring and Syria’s civil war to numerous Turkish elections and the Kurdish insurgency in the southeast. In 2017, she won the Knight-Bagehot fellowship program at Columbia University’s School of Journalism. She holds a BA in International Relations and an MA on European Union studies.

World

Nobel Institute shuts down talk of Venezuelan leader sharing Peace Prize with Trump

Published

9 hours ago

January 11, 2026

Press Room

Nobel Institute shuts down talk of Venezuelan leader sharing Peace Prize with Trump

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

The organization that oversees the Nobel Peace Prize rejected recent suggestions that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado could give or share her award with President Donald Trump.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute shut down the idea Friday, after Machado suggested that she might transfer the prestigious award to Trump earlier this week.

“Once a Nobel Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others,” the institute said in a statement. “The decision is final and stands for all time.”

The statement comes after Machado floated the idea during an appearance Tuesday on Fox News’ “Hannity.”

UNITED NATIONS ‘UPSET’ THAT TRUMP TOOK ‘BOLD ACTION’ TO IMPROVE VENEZUELA, SAYS UN AMB. MIKE WALTZ

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado waves at the Grand Hotel in Oslo, Norway, early Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025. (Lise Åserud/NTB Scanpix via AP)

“Did you at any point offer to give him the Nobel Peace Prize?” Sean Hannity asked. “Did that actually happen?”

Machado responded, “Well, it hasn’t happened yet.”

“I certainly would love to be able to personally tell him that we believe — the Venezuelan people, because this is a prize of the Venezuelan people — certainly want to give it to him and share it with him,” Machado continued. “What he has done is historic. It’s a huge step towards a democratic transition.”

TRUMP ADMIN SAYS MADURO CAPTURE REINFORCES ALIEN ENEMIES ACT REMOVALS

Nobel officials said the Peace Prize cannot be shared after Machado suggested honoring Trump. (REUTERS/Maxwell Briceno and Win McNamee/Getty Images)

On Jan. 3, Trump announced that the U.S. had successfully completed an operation to capture authoritarian Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is now facing drug trafficking charges in New York.

Trump was asked during an appearance Thursday on “Hannity” whether he would accept the Nobel Prize from Machado.

“I’ve heard that she wants to do that,” Trump responded. “That would be a great honor.”

TRUMP OUSTING OF MADURO DRAWS PARALLELS TO US RAID IN PANAMA – BUT THERE ARE SOME MAJOR CONTRASTS

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gestures during an anti-government protest on January 9, 2025 in Caracas, Venezuela (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)

Machado secretly escaped Venezuela last month and traveled to Norway to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, which she dedicated to Trump.

“Let me be very clear. As soon as I learned that we had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, I dedicated it to President Trump because I believed at that point that he deserved it,” Machado said on “Hannity.” “And a lot of people, most people, said it was impossible to achieve what he has just done on Saturday, January 3rd.”

Trump said he plans to meet with the Venezuelan opposition leader in Washington next week.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

He has previously stated that Machado “doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country” to lead. Trump has supported acting President Delcy Rodríguez, a longtime Maduro loyalist, who previously served as vice president under Maduro.

Fox News Digital’s Landon Mion contributed to this report.

World

Somali minister says Israel plans to displace Palestinians to Somaliland

Published

10 hours ago

January 11, 2026

Press Room

Somali minister says Israel plans to displace Palestinians to Somaliland

Somalia’s minister of defence, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, has accused Israel of planning to forcibly displace Palestinians to the breakaway region of Somaliland, denouncing the alleged plan as a “serious violation” of international law.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on Saturday, Fiqi called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw his diplomatic recognition of the “separatist region”, calling the move announced late last year a “direct attack” on Somalia’s sovereignty.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

“Israel has long had goals and plans to divide countries – maybe before 20 years – and it wants to divide the map of the Middle East and control its countries… this is why they found this separatist group in northwestern Somalia,” Fiqi told Al Jazeera.

“We have confirmed information that Israel has a plan to transfer Palestinians and to send them to [Somaliland],” he added, without elaborating.

Fiqi’s comments came amid a global outcry over Netanyahu’s decision in December to recognise Somaliland, a breakaway part of Somalia comprising the northwestern portion of what was once the British Protectorate.

The move made Israel the first country in the world to recognise Somaliland as an independent state and came months after The Associated Press news agency reported that Israeli officials had contacted parties in Somalia, Somaliland and Sudan to discuss using their territory for forcibly displacing Palestinians amid its genocidal war on Gaza.

Somalia denounced the Israeli move, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud telling Al Jazeera that Somaliland had accepted three conditions from Israel: The resettlement of Palestinians, the establishment of a military base on the coast of the Gulf of Aden, and joining the Abraham Accords to normalise ties with Israel.

Officials in Somaliland have denied agreeing to resettle Palestinians from Gaza, and say there have been no discussions on an Israeli military base in the area.

But Fiqi on Saturday reiterated that Israel “wants to create a military base to destabilise the region” on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.

“I see it as an occupation to destabilise the area,” Fiqi added.

He also stressed that Israel has no legal right to grant legitimacy to a region within a sovereign state.

Somaliland first declared independence from Somalia in 1991, but it has failed to gain recognition from any United Nations member state since.

Israel’s world-first announcement triggered protests in Somalia and swift criticisms from dozens of countries and organisations, including Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and the African Union.

Fiqi told Al Jazeera that Israel’s move falls into a decades-long goal to control the Middle East and accused Israel of exploiting separatist movements in the region. Roughly half of the areas formerly known as Somaliland have declared their affiliation with Somalia over the past two years, he added.

The minister praised the countries that had condemned Israel and pledged that Somalia would lean on all diplomatic and legal means to reject Israel’s “violation”.

He also commended United States President Donald Trump’s administration for not recognising Somaliland.

Although the US was the only member of the 15-member United Nations Security Council that did not condemn Israel for the recognition on December 30, it said its position on Somaliland had not changed.

For its part, Somaliland’s governing party has defended its newfound relations with Israel after Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Saar travelled to Hargeisa, the region’s largest city and self-declared capital, earlier this week.

Hersi Ali Haji Hassan, chairman of the governing Waddani party, told Al Jazeera days later that Somaliland was “not in a position to choose” who provided it with legitimacy after decades of being spurned by the international community.

“We are in a state of necessity for official international recognition,” Hassan said. “There is no choice before us but to welcome any country that recognises our existential right.”

Hassan did not deny the prospect of a potential military base.

“We have started diplomatic relations… This topic [a military base] has not been touched upon now,” he said.

When pressed on whether Somaliland would accept such a request in the future, Hassan said only to “ask the question when the time comes”, calling the line of inquiry “untimely”.

Israeli think tanks say Somaliland’s location, at the gateway to the Red Sea and across from Yemen, make it a strategic site for operations against the Yemeni Houthi rebel group, which imposed a naval blockade on Israeli-linked shipping before the US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza.

The Institute for National Security Studies, in a November report, said Somaliland’s territory could “serve as a forward base” for intelligence monitoring of the Houthis and serve “a platform for direct operations” against them.

The Houthis said that any Israeli presence would be a target, a statement Somaliland’s former intelligence chief, Mostafa Hasan, said amounted to a declaration of war.