Finance
‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst
In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.
Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.
“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.
This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.
Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.
Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.
“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.
Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.
Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.
“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”
“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.
The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”
The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.
Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”
The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.
The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.
However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.
“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.
“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.
Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.
On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.
With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.
“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.
“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lot quieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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Finance
Banking on carbon markets 2.0: why financial institutions should engage with carbon credits | Fortune
The global carbon market is at an inflection point as discussions during the recent COP meeting in Brazil demonstrated.
After years of negotiations over carbon market rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, countries are finally moving on to the implementation phase, with more than 30 countries already developing Article 6 strategies. At the same time, the voluntary market is evolving after a period of intense scrutiny over the quality and integrity of carbon credit projects.
The era of Carbon Markets 2.0 is characterised by high integrity standards and is increasingly recognised as critical to meeting the emission reduction goals of the Paris Agreement.
And this ongoing transition presents enormous opportunities for financial institutions to apply their expertise to professionalise the trade of carbon credits and restore confidence in the market.
The engagement of banks, insurance companies, asset managers and others can ensure that carbon markets evolve with the same discipline, risk management, and transparency that define mature financial systems while benefitting from new business opportunities.
Carbon markets 2.0
Carbon markets are an untapped opportunity to deliver climate action at speed and scale. Based on solutions available now, they allow industries to take action on emissions for which there is currently no or limited solution, complementing their decarbonization programs and closing the gap between the net zero we need to achieve and the net zero that is possible now. They also generate debt-free climate finance for emerging and developing economies to support climate-positive growth – all of which is essential for the global transition to net zero.
Despite recent slowdowns in carbon markets, the volume of credit retirements, representing delivered, verifiable climate action, was higher in the first half of 2025 than in any prior first half-year on record. Corporate climate commitments are increasing, driving significant demand for carbon credits to help bridge the gap on the path to meeting net-zero goals.
According to recent market research from the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity initiative (VCMI), businesses are now looking for three core qualities in the market to further rebuild their trust: stability, consistency, and transparency – supported by robust infrastructure. These elements are vital to restoring investor confidence and enabling interoperability across markets.
MSCI estimates that the global carbon credit market could grow from $1.4 billion in 2024 to up to $35 billion by 2030 and between $40 billion and $250 billion by 2050. Achieving such growth will rely on institutions equipped with capital, analytical rigour, risk frameworks, and market infrastructure.
Carbon Markets 2.0 will both benefit from and rely on the participation of financial institutions. Now is the time for them to engage, support the growth and professionalism of this nascent market, and, in doing so, benefit from new business opportunities.
The opportunity
Institutional capital has a unique role to play in shaping the carbon market as it grows. Financial institutions can go beyond investing or lending to high-quality projects by helping build the infrastructure that will enable growth at scale. This includes insurance, aggregation platforms, verification services, market-making capacity, and long-term investment vehicles.
By applying their expertise and understanding of the data and infrastructure required for a functioning, transparent market, financial institutions can help accelerate the integration of carbon credits into the global financial architecture.
As global efforts to decarbonise intensify, high-integrity carbon markets offer financial institutions a pathway to deliver tangible climate impact, support broader social and nature-positive goals, and unlock new sources of revenue, such as:
- Leveraging core competencies for market growth, including advisory, lending, project finance, asset management, trading, market access, and risk management solutions.
- Unlocking new commercial pathways and portfolio diversification beyond existing business models, supporting long-term growth, and facilitating entry into emerging decarbonisation-driven markets.
- Securing first-mover advantage, helping to shape norms, gain market share, and capture opportunities across advisory, structuring, and product innovation.
- Deepening client engagement by helping clients navigate carbon markets to add strategic value and strengthen long-term relationships.
Harnessing the opportunity
To make the most of these opportunities, financial institutions should consider engagements in high-integrity carbon markets to signal confidence and foster market stability. Visible participation, such as integrating high-quality carbon credits into institutional climate strategies, can help normalise the voluntary use of carbon credits alongside decarbonisation efforts and demonstrate leadership in climate-aligned financial practices.
Financial institutions can also deliver solutions that reduce market risk and improve project bankability. For instance, de-risking mechanisms like carbon credit insurance can mitigate performance, political, and delivery risks, addressing one of the core challenges holding back investments in carbon projects.
Additionally, diversified funding structures, including blended finance and concessional capital, can lower the cost of capital and de-risk early-stage startups. Fixed-price offtake agreements with investment-grade buyers and the use of project aggregation platforms can improve cash flow predictability and risk distribution, further enhancing bankability.
By structuring investments into carbon project developers, funds, or the broader market ecosystem, financial institutions can unlock much-needed finance and create an investable pathway for nature and carbon solutions.
For instance, earlier this year JPMorgan Chase struck a long-term offtake agreement for carbon credits tied to CO₂ capture, blending its roles as investor and market facilitator. Standard Chartered is also set to sell jurisdictional forest credits on behalf of the Brazilian state of Acre, while embedding transparency, local consultation, and benefit-sharing into the deal. These examples offer promising precedents in demonstrating that institutions can act not only as financiers but as integrators of high-integrity carbon markets.
The institutions that lead the growth of carbon markets will not only drive climate and nature outcomes but also unlock strategic commercial advantages in an emerging and rapidly evolving asset class.
However, the window to secure first-mover advantage is narrow: carbon markets are now shifting from speculation to implementation. Now is the moment for financial institutions to move from the sidelines and into leadership, helping shape the future of high-integrity carbon markets while capturing the opportunities they offer.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
Finance
Plano-Based Finance of America Announces $2.5B Partnership with Funds Managed by Blue Owl to Expand FOA’s Home Equity Lending
Graham Fleming, CEO of Finance of America [Composite image; source: Finance of America/DI Studio]
Finance of America Companies, a leading provider of home equity-based financing solutions for a modern retirement, and funds managed by Blue Owl Capital, a leading alternative asset manager, announced an enhanced $2.5 billion strategic partnership to accelerate product innovation and distribution for the nation’s fast-growing retirement demographic.
With more than 10,000 Americans entering retirement age every day, the market for home equity access continues to expand. FOA said its collaboration with New York City-based Blue Owl positions it to capture significant share in this rapidly evolving sector.
“This is a pivotal moment not just for Finance of America, but for the senior finance market as a whole,” Graham Fleming, CEO of Finance of America, said in a statement. “By aligning with Blue Owl, we are creating a platform of scale and innovation to better serve one of the fastest-growing demographics in the United States.”
The enhanced partnership includes, per FOA:
- $2.5 billion commitment for new product innovation, providing scale and liquidity to support origination growth across multiple asset classes
- $50 million equity investment in Finance of America, enhancing long-term alignment between the companies and supporting FOA’s continued growth initiatives
- Joint innovation and product-development initiative focused on the continuous rollout of new, differentiated financial products tailored for people looking to maximize freedom, security, and opportunity throughout their retirement
This product expansion will complement FOA’s existing industry-leading reverse mortgage product suite while strengthening the company’s commitment to innovation and its role as a leader in delivering powerful financial solutions for retirees.
FOA said it continues to empower retirees with responsible, flexible access to capital to support aging in place, healthcare expenses, and lifestyle goals.
The partnership reinforces Finance of America’s mission to provide comprehensive, retirement-focused financial solutions, with the goal of expanding beyond reverse mortgages to become the nation’s leading, full-spectrum home equity lending platform, the company said.
“We believe Finance of America is uniquely positioned to redefine how financial products are delivered to retirees,” said David Aidi, senior managing director and co-head of Asset Based Finance at Blue Owl.
“This partnership provides the capital, the strategic alignment, and the innovation engine to build category-defining products at scale,” added Ray Chan, senior managing director and co-head of Asset Based Finance at Blue Owl.
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Finance
Bérangère Michel announced as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer
The BBC has announced that Bérangère Michel has been appointed to the role of Group Chief Financial Officer.
Bérangère brings extensive experience from her 16-year career at the John Lewis Partnership, where she held senior roles including Chief Financial Officer, Customer Service Executive Director, Operations Director and Finance & Strategy Director.
Prior to joining the John Lewis Partnership, Bérangère spent 11 years at the Royal Mail Group in a number of finance, change and strategy roles, including as Finance Director of the property division.
In an expanded role as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer, Bérangère will be responsible for the overall BBC Group financial strategy, with a remit across BBC Public Service, BBC Studios and the BBC’s commercial subsidiaries. She will play a leadership role and will sit on both the Executive Committee and, for the first time, the Board.
This position will strengthen the BBC’s financial leadership, support its transformation, and make the best use of the licence fee and commercial opportunities. Bérangère will report to the Director-General and will take up the role in early January.
Director-General Tim Davie says: “Bérangère brings a wealth of experience from her time at the John Lewis Partnership and will play a critical role in shaping our new financial strategy. I’m pleased to welcome her to the BBC, and to both the Executive Committee and Board.
“Bérangère’s appointment to this expanded role comes at an important time for the BBC, as we look ahead to Charter renewal and continue to accelerate our transformation to deliver outstanding value for our audiences.”
BBC Chair Samir Shah says: “The role of Group Chief Financial Officer will be hugely important as we build a BBC for the future, and I look forward to welcoming Bérangère to the Board.”
Bérangère Michel says: “I am delighted to be joining the BBC, an institution whose purpose and mission I have always admired. It’s a privilege to be part of shaping its exciting future at such a crucial moment and I cannot wait to get started.”
BBC Press Office
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