A potential tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico could be a low-end Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday and headed toward a landfall on the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts.

After weeks of relative quiet, the National Hurricane Center put the chances of tropical storm formation at 90% within 48 hours in a 10 p.m. CT update Sunday.

A tropical storm watch was issued Sunday for Southern Texas, from Port Mansfield south to the Rio Grande River, which means tropical storm winds are possible along the coast by Tuesday evening. A tropical storm watch also is in effect southward along the Mexican coast to Barra del Tordo.

The center of the system was an estimated 320 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and about 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana on Sunday night. With sustained winds estimated at 50 mph, the elongated system was barely moving at 5 mph in a north-northwesterly direction.

The hurricane center expects the system to become a tropical storm on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area on the northeastern coast of Mexico and southern tip of Texas.

Unless one of the systems being watched out in the tropical Atlantic forms first, this storm would become the sixth named storm of the 2024 season, and would be named Francine. Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm watches are expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday.

The system, labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is one of three the hurricane center is watching. Another is in the central tropical Atlantic and is given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours. A storm farther to the east has a 50 chance of development over the next week.

The center’s forecast calls for the storm to be a low-end Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday with 80 mph winds.The storm is forecast to bring 4 – 8 inches of rainfall to the coast, with amounts up to 12 inches in some locations in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas and Louisiana coasts through Thursday, presenting a flash flood risk, the center stated.

The Gulf of Mexico system is forecast to begin a faster motion to the northeast by late Tuesday as it meets a cold front along the Gulf coast. It would be just offshore along the Texas coast moving toward a potential landfall along the upper Texas or Louisiana coast on Wednesday, said Donald Jones, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles, Louisiana in a Sunday night briefing.

Jones urged residents in Southwestern Louisiana to keep an eye on the weather, and said there was at least some chance that storm could even become a Category 2 hurricane. So far, landfall could be on Wednesday evening along the southwestern Louisiana coast, Jones said.

Water temperatures in the Gulf are warmer than normal, and could be conductive to hurricane development, Jones said. Once the system forms a well-defined center, the hurricane center said steady strengthening is possible. The storm would be over the warm Gulf in an area of abundant moisture, the hurricane center stated, but could encounter an increase in wind shear and slightly drier air that could prevent significant strengthening.

“We’re going to be looking at 8 to 12 inches of rainfall south of Interstate 10 in southwestern Louisiana,” Jones said.

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At the moment, the biggest threat is flooding, Jones said. The track of the tropical storm shifted a little eastward Sunday and could shift even further east, he said.