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Want to know November's election outcome? Washington's primary may be a crystal ball

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Want to know November's election outcome? Washington's primary may be a crystal ball

In this file photo, a person drops off a ballot at a drop box during the presidential primary election on Tuesday, March 12 in Seattle. Washington state is reliably Democratic in its voting, but its late summer top-two primary has predictive power for how the nation feels about the two main political parties.

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The mantra “past performance is no guarantee of future results” applies to many things, including trying to predict election results ahead of time. But how many voters in a deep blue state showed up in this month’s primary – and how they voted – may provide insight into the political environment in November.

Election data analysts point to Washington state’s primary results as a useful barometer of which party is likely to win the national popular vote for the House of Representatives and to what degree.

Here’s how to do it: add up the total votes for Democrats and Republicans in Washington’s 10 House district primaries. Then, take the difference between them and subtract 12 to get a rough estimate of the predicted House margin in November.

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An NPR analysis of the Washington primary using this framework estimates that Democrats could win the national popular vote by about 4 points, which is slightly more than the 2020 presidential election that saw them narrowly win the White House and control of both chambers of Congress.

In other words, it will likely be yet another close race.

This year, Democrats won about 57.3% of the Congressional primary vote to Republicans’ 41.3%, or a margin of 16%. Subtract 12 percentage points, and you get that estimate of a 4% popular vote victory for Democrats later this year.

Current presidential polling averages have Vice President Harris leading former President Donald Trump by about 3% heading into the Democratic National Convention, and the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll also found Harris up by 3%, suggesting a similar national environment could be waiting in November.

In recent elections, the framework has also hinted at the direction of public sentiment ahead of the general elections, like the 2022 midterms. Democrats finished with a 10.4% margin in Washington’s primary election, a down year that suggested Republicans were favored by about 1.6%, closer to the final national popular vote advantage of about 2.8% for the GOP in the House.

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In 2020, a 14% primary margin suggested a 2% popular vote victory for Democrats, which ended up being closer to 3%. 2018’s “blue wave” that saw Democrats win the House popular vote with a roughly 8.5% margin was foreshadowed by Washington’s primary that saw a 20.4 % Democratic margin across its Congressional seats.

Why Washington state?

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at University of Virginia Center for Politics, says Washington’s predictive power is driven by a few unique factors.

“One, the primary is open to all voters, and two, it occurs relatively late in the primary season,” he said. “Down-ballot primaries in other states usually begin in March, so it almost has a feel of being a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the fall election.”

Unlike many other primaries, Washington’s election sees all candidates from all parties on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters proceeding to the general election. There are often more candidates and more ideological options for voters to express their preferences under the umbrella of the two major parties.

“This, combined with the very high turnout we see in this election – not quite at the level of a general election, but far better than most primaries – makes it much more representative,” Lakshya Jain, CEO of the elections modeling website Split Ticket, said. “It’s also a state that’s roughly as white as the nation is and just a few points more educated, meaning that it’s at least somewhat representative of the overall electorate.”

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Jain said the Washington primary indicates an election cycle that is definitely driven by Democratic enthusiasm, but not to the degree of “blue wave” election years like 2018.

“The fact that Democrats are substantially outperforming their 2022 numbers bodes very well for them, especially given that they almost kept the House that year,” he added. “I will say that basically everything that’s been going on of late seems good for them — polling has surged in their direction, and the primary results and specials broadly all seem good for them.”

That said, the Washington primary shorthand should not be used as absolute gospel to be applied equally because there are 435 House races, 33 Senate races and 50 state-level presidential elections that all have their own quirks and local electorates that change how useful the estimate may be.

There are only a small handful of competitive House, Senate and presidential battlegrounds, so increased Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in noncompetitive races could lead to a higher national popular vote victory without winning those races, for example.

Coleman added that a third presidential election cycle that has been dominated by Trump means low-propensity voters that support him and no other candidate are another group to watch for as well.

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“While there are some promising signs for Democrats, the Washington primary being one of them, to me, one X-factor lingering over the election is the question of how many of those voters Trump will bring out.”

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Iran acknowledges mass protest deaths, but claims situation under control as Trump mulls response

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Iran acknowledges mass protest deaths, but claims situation under control as Trump mulls response

Iran’s theocratic rulers are under the most intense pressure they’ve felt in years, as President Trump leaves the option of a U.S. military intervention on the table in the face of a fast-mounting death toll amid more than two weeks of anti-government protests across the Islamic Republic.

Mr. Trump said Sunday that Iranian officials had called him looking “to negotiate” after his repeated threats to intervene if authorities kill protesters. In an unusual move, meanwhile, Iran‘s state-controlled media aired video on Sunday showing mass casualties in and outside a morgue in a Tehran suburb.

The video shared widely online shows dozens of bodies outside the morgue, which CBS News has geolocated to the southern Tehran suburb of Kahrizak. The bodies were wrapped in black bags, and people can be seen grieving and searching for their loved ones at the site.

The state TV reporter says in the clip that some of those seen dead may have been involved in violence, but that “the majority of them are ordinary people, and their families are ordinary people as well.” 

An image from video posted on social media on Jan. 11, 2026, shows people outside the Kahrizak Forensic Medical Center in Tehran, trying to identify loved ones amid the bodies of dozens killed in a wave of deadly anti-government demonstrations across Iran.

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Video posted by social media users on Sunday showed scenes from the same morgue, and people could be heard wailing in the background as others appeared to be looking for loved ones amid the bodies.  

It is unclear why Iranian authorities might have chosen to show the mass casualties, but it could be an attempt to show sympathy with the protesters and to bolster their narrative that it is more radical actors, inspired by Mr. Trump’s messages of support, behind the violence, not the government.

President Trump and Iranian officials have escalated their warnings over the past week, with both sides insisting they’re ready for, but not seeking a military confrontation. 

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On Sunday, however, Mr. Trump said Iran’s leadership had called looking to talk.

Trump issues fresh warning, says Iran seeking negotiations

“The leaders of Iran called” yesterday, he told reporters Sunday on Air Force One, saying “a meeting is being set up … They want to negotiate.”

“We may have to act before a meeting,” Mr. Trump warned. He first warned 10 days ago that if Iran killed protesters, the U.S. would “come to their rescue,” but he’s yet to say what exactly would prompt some action against the regime, or what that might entail.

A senior U.S. official confirmed to CBS News on Sunday that the president had been briefed on new options for military strikes in Iran, after Mr. Trump warned that if the regime started “killing people like they have in the past, we would get involved.”

“We’ll be hitting them very hard where it hurts,” he said at the White House. “And that doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts.”

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The U.S. has not yet moved any forces in preparation for potential strikes on Iran, officials with the military’s Central Command told CBS News over the weekend.   

Iran’s top diplomat claims protests “under total control”

Iran did not confirm any direct outreach to the Trump administration, but speaking on Monday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suggested the regime had brought the protests under control – repeating the government’s claim that the U.S. was to blame for the violence.

The “situation is now under total control,” Araghchi said, according to the Reuters news agency, as Iranian state TV aired video of massive pro-government demonstrations around the country.

iran-pro-regime-demo-jan-2026.jpg

An image from video aired on Jan. 12, 2026 by Iranian state TV, shows a funeral procession for protesters killed in what the network said were “terrorist acts” amid anti-regime protests across the country, in Ardabil, northwest Iran.

Reuters/Iranian state TV

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Government-controlled broadcaster IRIB called one demonstration and funeral march an “Iranian uprising against American-Zionist terrorism.”

In the face of Mr. Trump’s repeated threats, Araghchi said Iran was “ready for war, but also for dialogue” with the U.S. at any time.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi makes a speech amid amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaks on state television amid anti-government protests, in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 12, 2026, in a screengrab obtained from a handout video.

IRIB/Handout/REUTERS


In another indication that the regime may believe it is weathering the storm, the foreign minister said internet service would be resumed in coordination with Iran’s security services, though he offered no specific timeline. 

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Rights groups say death toll from protests could be in the thousands

According to human rights groups based outside the country, which rely on contacts inside Iran, the death toll has already climbed into the hundreds. 

The Washington D.C.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said that, as of Sunday, the 15th day of protests, at least 544 people had been killed, including 483 protesters and 47 members of the security forces. HRANA said the unrest had manifested in 186 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

The Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI), which is also based in the U.S., said over the weekend that it had “eyewitness accounts and credible reports indicating that hundreds of protesters have been killed across Iran during the current internet shutdown,” accusing the regime of carrying out “a massacre.” 

The Iran Human Rights (IHR) organization, based in Norway, said Saturday that it had confirmed at least 192 protesters were killed, but that the number could be over 2,000.

“Unverified reports indicate that at least several hundreds, and according to some sources, more than 2,000 people may have been killed,” IHR said in a statement, adding that according to its estimate, more than 2,600 protesters had been arrested. 

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HRANA estimates that over 10,000 people have been detained.

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Video: What Our Photographer Saw in Minneapolis

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Video: What Our Photographer Saw in Minneapolis

new video loaded: What Our Photographer Saw in Minneapolis

David Guttenfelder, a visual journalist for The New York Times, was at the scene in Minneapolis immediately after an ICE agent killed a 37-year-old woman in her vehicle. He walks us through the photos and videos he took over the next few days as outrage and protests mounted in the city.

By David Guttenfelder, Coleman Lowndes and Nikolay Nikolov

January 12, 2026

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More federal agents head to Minnesota. And, U.S. Figure Skating announces Olympic team

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More federal agents head to Minnesota. And, U.S. Figure Skating announces Olympic team

Good morning. You’re reading the Up First newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox, and listen to the Up First podcast for all the news you need to start your day.

Today’s top stories

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is deploying more federal agents to Minnesota. The move comes as nationwide protests continued yesterday after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent fatally shot Renee Good in Minneapolis last week. Some elected officials, including U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar, are pushing back against DHS actions to bring in more agents and demanding a full investigation into Good’s killing. U.S. representatives have typically been allowed to visit ICE detention facilities unannounced, but Homeland Security now requires elected officials to provide a seven-day notice to enter.

A person in an inflatable frog suit holds a sign during a protest in Los Angeles on Jan.10 against US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) after the fatal shooting of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis.

Etienne Laurent/AFP via Getty Images


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  • 🎧 Tensions are high in Minneapolis, NPR’s Jason DeRose tells Up First. The community can hear sirens and helicopters throughout the day and night, leaving people on edge. Though there is a lot of fear in the area, people are caring for their neighbors. Several hundred people gathered at a church near where the shooting took place last week and marched a mile loop to offer comfort. Along the route, they sang and held moments of silence at areas where ICE agents recently detained residents. DeRose says he will pay attention to what the additional agents are actually doing on the ground and how community members who oppose ICE’s presence will respond in the coming days.

President Trump says he is not ruling out strikes on Iran despite saying Tehran asked to negotiate with the U.S. Iran has seen significant protests for several weeks in the biggest challenge to the theocratic regime in years. In response, the Iranian government has cracked down hard. Around 500 protesters have been killed, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.

  • 🎧 The regime’s knowledge of the U.S.’ capability to damage missile facilities and hit political targets may have led to the Iranians’ request for talks with the Trump administration, Nader Habibi, who focuses on Middle East economics, tells NPR’s Jackie Northam. Iran said it would consider U.S. military bases and ships as targets for preemptive strikes if the U.S. looked like it would strike. Currently, Iran’s regime is vulnerable because its 12-day war with Israel last summer resulted in the deaths of many of the government’s senior leadership and weakened its military capabilities

The Trump administration is escalating its pressure campaign on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the Justice Department subpoenaed the central bank last week, seeking information about testimony that Powell gave to the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025.

  • 🎧 At that time, lawmakers grilled Powell over the Fed headquarters’ makeover costs, which ballooned from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion. However, in an unusually combative video yesterday, Powell argued that the DOJ investigation is more than just about project spending. The president has said he wants lower interest rates and has threatened to fire Powell in the past, NPR’s Scott Horsley says. However, the Fed was designed to be insulated from political pressure so that policymakers can do what they think is best for the economy long term.

U.S. figure skating is poised to send what some in the sport are calling its most dominant team in years to the Winter Olympics. Sixteen skaters will represent Team USA across all four disciplines: men’s, women’s, pairs, and ice dance. Meet the world champions, seasoned veterans, and rising stars who secured their spots on the roster.

  • 📷 NPR’s Brian Munoz attended the U.S. Figure Skating Championships. He left with a newfound love for the sport. See his photos of the athletes fiercely competing for a spot on the team.

Living better

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Living Better is a special series about what it takes to stay healthy in America.

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Conversations about women’s health, including topics like breast cancer and menopause, have become more mainstream. But the cultural shift comes with a catch: Information can be oversimplified and sometimes outright wrong. As people focus on their New Year’s health goals, doctors debunk some myths people should be aware of.

  • 🩺 Annual mammograms are critical, but you need more to prevent breast cancer. Understand your lifetime risk to see if you need tailored screening.
  • 🩺 Strength training doesn’t trump cardio, especially in midlife. Aerobic exercise is still critical.
  • 🩺 Women cannot maximize workouts based on their menstrual cycle. No good data shows significant changes in strength, endurance, or recovery across the menstrual cycle phases.

Picture show

Ariana Grande arrives at the 83rd Golden Globes on Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, Calif. (Photo by Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP)

Ariana Grande arrives at the 83rd Golden Globes on Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, Calif. (Photo by Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP)

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Ariana Grande, Noah Wyle, Teyana Taylor and George Clooney were just some of the big names in TV and film who walked the red carpet last night before the 83rd annual Golden Globes in Beverly Hills, Calif. Among the stars were Morning Edition‘s own Michel Martin, Steve Inskeep, Leila Fadel and A Martínez. Take a look at all the dazzling looks.

➡️ Didn’t watch the award show? Don’t fret, these are all the winners of the Golden Globes.

3 things to know before you go

A photograph of President Trump and a short plaque next to it are on display at the Smithsonian's National Portrait Gallery's "American Presidents" exhibit on Sunday.

A photograph of President Trump and a short plaque next to it are on display at the Smithsonian’s National Portrait Gallery’s “American Presidents” exhibit on Sunday.

Rod Lamkey/AP

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  1. The Smithsonian’s National Portrait Gallery in Washington, D.C., removed mentions of Trump’s two impeachments and information about his presidency from the wall text next to his new portrait.
  2. The Washington National Opera is leaving the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, its home since 1971, in response to new policies that strain its financial model.
  3. Bob Weir has died at 78. He was a founding member of the influential rock band the Grateful Dead.

This newsletter was edited by Suzanne Nuyen.

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