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Want to know November's election outcome? Washington's primary may be a crystal ball
In this file photo, a person drops off a ballot at a drop box during the presidential primary election on Tuesday, March 12 in Seattle. Washington state is reliably Democratic in its voting, but its late summer top-two primary has predictive power for how the nation feels about the two main political parties.
Manuel Valdes/AP
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Manuel Valdes/AP
The mantra “past performance is no guarantee of future results” applies to many things, including trying to predict election results ahead of time. But how many voters in a deep blue state showed up in this month’s primary – and how they voted – may provide insight into the political environment in November.
Election data analysts point to Washington state’s primary results as a useful barometer of which party is likely to win the national popular vote for the House of Representatives and to what degree.
Here’s how to do it: add up the total votes for Democrats and Republicans in Washington’s 10 House district primaries. Then, take the difference between them and subtract 12 to get a rough estimate of the predicted House margin in November.

An NPR analysis of the Washington primary using this framework estimates that Democrats could win the national popular vote by about 4 points, which is slightly more than the 2020 presidential election that saw them narrowly win the White House and control of both chambers of Congress.
In other words, it will likely be yet another close race.
This year, Democrats won about 57.3% of the Congressional primary vote to Republicans’ 41.3%, or a margin of 16%. Subtract 12 percentage points, and you get that estimate of a 4% popular vote victory for Democrats later this year.
Current presidential polling averages have Vice President Harris leading former President Donald Trump by about 3% heading into the Democratic National Convention, and the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll also found Harris up by 3%, suggesting a similar national environment could be waiting in November.
In recent elections, the framework has also hinted at the direction of public sentiment ahead of the general elections, like the 2022 midterms. Democrats finished with a 10.4% margin in Washington’s primary election, a down year that suggested Republicans were favored by about 1.6%, closer to the final national popular vote advantage of about 2.8% for the GOP in the House.
In 2020, a 14% primary margin suggested a 2% popular vote victory for Democrats, which ended up being closer to 3%. 2018’s “blue wave” that saw Democrats win the House popular vote with a roughly 8.5% margin was foreshadowed by Washington’s primary that saw a 20.4 % Democratic margin across its Congressional seats.
Why Washington state?
J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at University of Virginia Center for Politics, says Washington’s predictive power is driven by a few unique factors.
“One, the primary is open to all voters, and two, it occurs relatively late in the primary season,” he said. “Down-ballot primaries in other states usually begin in March, so it almost has a feel of being a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the fall election.”
Unlike many other primaries, Washington’s election sees all candidates from all parties on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters proceeding to the general election. There are often more candidates and more ideological options for voters to express their preferences under the umbrella of the two major parties.
“This, combined with the very high turnout we see in this election – not quite at the level of a general election, but far better than most primaries – makes it much more representative,” Lakshya Jain, CEO of the elections modeling website Split Ticket, said. “It’s also a state that’s roughly as white as the nation is and just a few points more educated, meaning that it’s at least somewhat representative of the overall electorate.”
Jain said the Washington primary indicates an election cycle that is definitely driven by Democratic enthusiasm, but not to the degree of “blue wave” election years like 2018.
“The fact that Democrats are substantially outperforming their 2022 numbers bodes very well for them, especially given that they almost kept the House that year,” he added. “I will say that basically everything that’s been going on of late seems good for them — polling has surged in their direction, and the primary results and specials broadly all seem good for them.”
That said, the Washington primary shorthand should not be used as absolute gospel to be applied equally because there are 435 House races, 33 Senate races and 50 state-level presidential elections that all have their own quirks and local electorates that change how useful the estimate may be.
There are only a small handful of competitive House, Senate and presidential battlegrounds, so increased Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in noncompetitive races could lead to a higher national popular vote victory without winning those races, for example.
Coleman added that a third presidential election cycle that has been dominated by Trump means low-propensity voters that support him and no other candidate are another group to watch for as well.
“While there are some promising signs for Democrats, the Washington primary being one of them, to me, one X-factor lingering over the election is the question of how many of those voters Trump will bring out.”
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Under Trump, Green Card Seekers Face New Scrutiny for Views on Israel
For decades, immigrants who have followed the rules and have not broken the law have had hopes of earning a green card, a document that allows them to live legally in the United States and gain a path to citizenship.
But under new guidance issued by the Trump administration, immigrants can now be denied a green card for expressing political opinions, such as participating in pro-Palestinian campus protests, posting criticism of Israel on social media and desecrating the American flag, according to internal Department of Homeland Security training materials reviewed by The New York Times.
The documents, which have not been previously reported, show how expansively the Trump administration is carrying out a directive from last August to vet green card applicants for “anti-American” and “antisemitic” views.
The administration includes criticism of Israel as a potentially disqualifying factor, with the training materials citing as an example of questionable speech a social media post that declares, “Stop Israeli Terror in Palestine” and shows the Israeli flag crossed out.
The materials were distributed last month to immigration officers at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security and handles applications for green cards and other forms of legal status.
They reflect how U.S.C.I.S. — long considered the gateway agency for legal migration — has rapidly transformed under President Trump into another cog in his administration’s deportation machine. The agency has worked to strip naturalized Americans of their citizenship and has hired armed federal agents to investigate immigration crimes.
The administration is also granting permanent legal residency to far fewer applicants. Green card approvals have fallen by more than half in recent months, according to a Times analysis of agency data.
“There is no room in America for aliens who espouse anti-American ideologies or support terrorist organizations,” Joseph Edlow, the agency’s director, told Congress in February.
Critics of Mr. Trump’s approach say the administration is seeking to restrict legitimate political speech, and has conflated opposition to Israeli government policies with antisemitism.
Basing green card decisions on “ideological screenings is fundamentally un-American and should have no place in a country built on the promise of free expression,” said Amanda Baran, a senior agency official under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Administration officials said they were defending American values.
“If you hate America, you have no business demanding to live in America,” said Zach Kahler, a spokesman for U.S.C.I.S.
Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, said the administration’s policies had “nothing to do with free speech” and were meant to protect “American institutions, the safety of citizens, national security and the freedoms of the United States.”
The administration has moved aggressively against immigrants for expressing political views that officials have deemed anti-American, making ideology a central part of its immigration vetting process. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has revoked the visas of pro-Palestinian student activists, including one who wrote a column criticizing her university’s response to pro-Palestinian demands.
The Department of Homeland Security has proposed reviewing the social media histories of tourists seeking to visit the United States.
Immigration officers have significant discretion in deciding whether to grant foreigners long-term permanent residence. They have long considered a variety of factors, including criminal records, national security threats, family ties to the United States and employment histories.
Ideology has also traditionally been one of those factors. In some cases, U.S. law forbids officers from granting green cards to people who have belonged to a Communist or other “totalitarian” political party, have promoted anarchy or have called for the overthrow of the U.S. government by “force or violence or other unconstitutional means.”
But in the past, immigration officers have focused on statements that could incite or encourage violence, given concerns about infringing on constitutionally protected speech, former U.S.C.I.S. officials said.
The new training materials reviewed by The Times guide immigration officers through the factors they should consider when ruling on green card applications. They discourage officers from granting green cards to people with a history of “endorsing, promoting or supporting anti-American views” or “antisemitic terrorism, ideologies or groups.”
Immigration officers have been told to weigh those factors as “overwhelmingly negative.”
The documents list support for “subversive” ideologies as among other factors that could lead to an application being rejected. As an example, the materials point to someone “holding a sign advocating overthrow of the U.S. government.”
In addition, the guidance describes the desecration of the American flag as a negative factor, citing Mr. Trump’s executive order last year directing the Justice Department to prosecute protesters who burn the flag. The Supreme Court has ruled that flag burning is a form of political expression protected by the First Amendment.
Immigration officers have also been told to scrutinize applicants who encourage antisemitism “through rhetorical or physical actions.” They were instructed to “focus particularly on aliens who engaged in on-campus anti-American and antisemitic activities” after the Hamas attacks against Israel in 2023, the documents show.
Further examples in the documents of conduct characterized as antisemitic include a social media post showing a map of Israel with the nation’s name crossed out and replaced with the word “Palestine.” Another illustrative post suggests that Israelis should “taste what people in Gaza are tasting.”
Immigration officers must elevate all cases involving “potential anti-American and/or antisemitic conduct or ideology” to their managers and to the agency’s general counsel’s office for review, according to the documents.
In recent months, the agency has also changed the way it refers to the employees who adjudicate green card applications, long known as “immigration services officers.” In job postings, it now calls them “homeland defenders.”
“Protect your homeland and defend your culture,” one posting says.
Steven Rich contributed reporting.
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America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war
Additional work by Jana Tauschinski
Oil and gas tanker location and destination data are from Kpler. The map shows the latest position for vessels with an active AIS signal on April 19–20, filtered by minimum capacity thresholds: crude tankers of at least 50,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT); oil product tankers of at least 55,000 DWT; oil/chemical tankers of at least 40,000 DWT; LNG carriers of at least 150,000 cubic metres; and LPG carriers of at least 50,000 cubic metres. Net fossil fuel import data by country are based on Ember analysis of the IEA World Energy Balances 2023.
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Roommate faces murder charges in deaths of 2 University of South Florida doctoral students
A 26-year-old man is facing two counts of first-degree murder in the deaths of two University of South Florida doctoral students who went missing last week, local authorities said Saturday.
The Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office in Florida said that evidence presented to the state attorney’s office resulted in the charges against Hisham Abugharbieh, the roommate of Zamil Limon, one of the doctoral students.
Abugharbieh is accused of premediated murder with a weapon. He was arrested on Friday, the same day Limon was found dead.
The family of Nahida Bristy, the other doctoral student, told CBS News that police said she is also likely dead. That is based on the volume of blood discovered at Abugharbieh’s residence, which he shared with Limon.
“Police told us she is no longer with us,” Bristy’s brother, Zahid Prato, said early Saturday.
The family was told her body may never be found and police believe she may have been dismembered, according to Prato.
CBS News has reached out to police for more information.
Authorities said in a statement Saturday they were still searching for Bristy.
Limon’s remains were found on the Howard Franklin Bridge in Tampa Friday morning, Chief Deputy Joseph Maurer with the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office said. His cause of death was pending autopsy results.
Deputies with the sheriff’s office took Abugharbieh into custody on Friday after responding to a domestic violence call at a home in the Lake Forest Community, a neighborhood near USF’s Tampa campus, officials said. He also faces charges of domestic violence and evidence tampering, as well as a charge of failing to report a death to law enforcement.
Limon and Bristy, both 27, had last been seen in the Tampa area on April 16.
Limon was studying the use of AI in environmental science and was set to present his doctoral thesis this week, his family said. Bristy is studying chemical engineering.
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