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Trump’s Social Security tax break could make two fragile safety nets even weaker

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Trump’s Social Security tax break could make two fragile safety nets even weaker

Donald Trump’s call to exempt Social Security benefits from income taxes may offer an alluring political sound bite.

But the move would undermine not just one critical safety net for seniors, but two.

Trump’s plan is expected to exhaust the reserve funds for both Social Security and Medicare faster than anticipated, according to tax policy experts.

That would saddle seniors with an even bigger cut in Social Security benefits than currently estimated and throw a healthcare program that covers 67 million into chaos. Taxes on Social Security payouts help fund Medicare’s hospital coverage.

The plan would also add $1.6 trillion over 10 years to the country’s budget deficit with few economic gains, these experts said.

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“It’s not setting the entitlements up for success and it’s not putting our budget in a good position,” Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, told Yahoo Finance.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The proposal has both the Tax Foundation and the Center for American Progress, which often are on opposite sides of tax policy, warning of the potential consequences.

“If smart analysts on the left and smart analysts on the right of the tax policy don’t think it’s a good idea, that certainly tells you something,” Brendan Duke, senior director for economic policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress Action Fund, told Yahoo Finance.

“It’s probably not a good idea.”

Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, first floated the idea late last month at a rally in Harrisburg, Pa., vowing that “seniors should not pay taxes on Social Security and they won’t,” without offering further details.

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On Wednesday, Trump stood by a banner that read “No tax on Social Security” at a campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., calling the tax a “cruel double taxation.”

As it stands now, about 40% of seniors must pay federal income taxes on their Social Security benefits. The tax is progressive, meaning those with the lowest incomes aren’t taxed, while wealthier seniors with substantial income outside of their benefits are.

Exempting benefits from income taxes would provide an effective 44% benefit increase for seniors with the highest incomes, a 6% increase for middle-income ones, and no increase for most in the bottom half, according to Marc Goldwein, a senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

That’s before Social Security runs into trouble.

The tax seniors pay on their Social Security benefits also goes directly into funding the trust fund that supports the social program. Eliminating those taxes accelerates when the reserves for Social Security run out.

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(Credit: Social Security Administration)(Credit: Social Security Administration)

(Credit: Social Security Administration)

Currently, Social Security’s reserves are expected to be exhausted by 2035, at which point benefits will get cut by 21%. If Trump’s proposal is enacted, those reserves are estimated to run dry by 2033 and benefits would be slashed by 25%.

Even with the benefits cut, wealthier seniors come out slightly ahead with the tax break, pocketing a 9% increase, per Goldwein.

That’s not the case for lower-earning Social Security beneficiaries who would see their benefits reduced by a quarter with no tax break.

“The bottom half are losers,” Watson said.

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Overall, the plan would water down what is considered the biggest anti-poverty program in the United States.

“There is no world where this does not increase the elderly poverty rate,” Duke said.

Trump’s plan would also empty out the reserves that Medicare uses for hospital coverage — known as Medicare Part A — sooner than anticipated.

Right now, that fund is expected to run out in 2036. That moves up to 2030 under Trump’s plan, according to Watson.

The Medicare trustees have said the fund’s insolvency could first cause delays in payments to health plans and providers of hospital services. Additionally, seniors’ “access to health care services could rapidly be curtailed.”

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“Nobody actually knows what happens when Medicare runs out of money,” Duke said. “And that’s actually pretty scary.”

FILE - A shadow is seen across a Medicare card on June 10, 2024, in Portland, Ore. Majorities of Americans favor forgiving all or some of an individual's medical debt if the person is facing hardships, according to a new poll from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)FILE - A shadow is seen across a Medicare card on June 10, 2024, in Portland, Ore. Majorities of Americans favor forgiving all or some of an individual's medical debt if the person is facing hardships, according to a new poll from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)

A shadow is seen across a Medicare card on June 10, 2024, in Portland, Ore. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The implications for the federal deficit are also sizable.

Not taxing seniors’ benefits means $1.6 trillion in total revenue would not go to the trust funds that support Social Security and Medicare from 2024 to 2033, according to calculations using data from the most recent Social Security and Medicare trustees reports.

“This would mechanically add to the budget deficit and go in the wrong direction in solving that problem,” Watson added.

There would be very little economic return from the proposal, too, Watson found.

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The country’s long-run gross domestic product would increase by 0.1%, while the economy would add around 64,000 full-time jobs. Wages would tick up by less than 0.05%.

“The intent [of the proposal] is trying to protect seniors who are operating on fixed incomes from inflation and provide more relief by not taxing it,” Watson said. “But if it’s done without offsets, it weakens the very entitlements they’re trying to protect.”

Janna Herron is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @JannaHerron.

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns
ConocoPhillips’ fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly, moving from about US$112.37 to roughly US$111.48, as recent research blends confidence in the company’s execution and balance sheet with more cautious views on crude pricing and near term cash flow. The core discount rate has been held steady at 6.956%, while modest tweaks to revenue growth assumptions, from 1.92% to 1.69%, reflect tempered expectations around demand and realizations that some firms are flagging. Stay tuned to…
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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

Climate change is no longer just about melting ice or hotter summers. It is also a financial problem. Droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves damage crops, factories and infrastructure. At the same time, the global push to cut greenhouse gas emissions creates risks for countries that depend on oil, gas or coal.

These pressures can destabilise entire financial systems, especially in regions already facing economic fragility. Africa is a prime example.

Although the continent contributes less than 5% of global carbon emissions, it is among the most vulnerable. In Mozambique, repeated cyclones have destroyed homes, roads and farms, forcing banks and insurers to absorb heavy losses. Kenya has experienced severe droughts that hurt agriculture, reducing farmers’ ability to repay loans. In north Africa, heatwaves strain electricity grids and increase water scarcity.

These physical risks are compounded by “transition risks”, like declining revenues from fossil fuel exports or higher borrowing costs as investors worry about climate instability. Together, they make climate governance through financial policies both urgent and complex. Without these policies, financial systems risk being caught off guard by climate shocks and the transition away from fossil fuels.

This is where climate-related financial policies come in. They provide the tools for banks, insurers and regulators to manage risks, support investment in greener sectors and strengthen financial stability.

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Regulators and banks across Africa have started to adopt climate-related financial policies. These range from rules that require banks to consider climate risks, to disclosure standards, green lending guidelines, and green bond frameworks. These tools are being tested in several countries. But their scope and enforcement vary widely across the continent.

My research compiles the first continent-wide database of climate-related financial policies in Africa and examines how differences in these policies – and in how binding they are – affect financial stability and the ability to mobilise private investment for green projects.

A new study I conducted reviewed more than two decades of policies (2000–2025) across African countries. It found stark differences.

South Africa has developed the most comprehensive framework, with policies across all categories. Kenya and Morocco are also active, particularly in disclosure and risk-management rules. In contrast, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a few voluntary measures.

Why does this matter? Voluntary rules can help raise awareness and encourage change, but on their own they often do not go far enough. Binding measures, on the other hand, tend to create stronger incentives and steadier progress. So far, however, most African climate-related financial policies remain voluntary. This leaves climate risk as something to consider rather than a firm requirement.

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Uneven landscape

In Africa, the 2015 Paris Agreement marked a clear turning point. Around that time, policy activity increased noticeably, suggesting that international agreements and standards could help create momentum and visibility for climate action. The expansion of climate-related financial policies was also shaped by domestic priorities and by pressure from international investors and development partners.

But since the late 2010s, progress has slowed. Limited resources, overlapping institutional responsibilities and fragmented coordination have made it difficult to sustain the earlier pace of reform.

Looking across the continent, four broad patterns have emerged.

A few countries, such as South Africa, have developed comprehensive frameworks. These include:

  • disclosure rules (requirements for banks and companies to report how climate risks affect them)

  • stress tests (simulations of extreme climate or transition scenarios to see whether banks would remain resilient).

Others, including Kenya and Morocco, are steadily expanding their policy mix, even if institutional capacity is still developing.

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Some, such as Nigeria and Egypt, are moderately active, with a focus on disclosure rules and green bonds. (Those are bonds whose proceeds are earmarked to finance environmentally friendly projects such as renewable energy, clean transport or climate-resilient infrastructure.)

Finally, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a limited number of measures, often voluntary in nature.

This uneven landscape has important consequences.

The net effect

In fossil fuel-dependent economies such as South Africa, Egypt and Algeria, the shift away from coal, oil and gas could generate significant transition risks. These include:

  • financial instability, for example when asset values in carbon-intensive sectors fall sharply or credit exposures deteriorate

  • stranded assets, where fossil fuel infrastructure and reserves lose their economic value before the end of their expected life because they can no longer be used or are no longer profitable under stricter climate policies.

Addressing these challenges may require policies that combine investment in new, low-carbon sectors with targeted support for affected workers, communities and households.

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Climate finance affects people directly. When droughts lead to loan defaults, local banks are strained. Insurance companies facing repeated payouts after floods may raise premiums. Pension funds invested in fossil fuels risk devaluations as these assets lose value. Climate-related financial policies therefore matter not only for regulators and markets, but also for jobs, savings, and everyday livelihoods.

At the same time, there are opportunities.

Firstly, expanding access to green bonds and sustainability-linked loans can channel private finance into renewable energy, clean transport, or resilient infrastructure.

Secondly, stronger disclosure rules can improve transparency and investor confidence.

Thirdly, regional harmonisation through common reporting standards, for example, would reduce fragmentation. This would make it easier for Africa to attract global climate finance.

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Looking ahead

International forums such as the UN climate conferences (COP) and the G20 have helped to push this agenda forward, mainly by setting expectations rather than hard rules. These initiatives create pressure and guidance. But they remain soft law. Turning them into binding, enforceable rules still depends on decisions taken by national regulators and governments.

International partners such as the African Development Bank and the African Union could support coordination by promoting continental standards that define what counts as a green investment. Donors and multilateral lenders may also provide technical expertise and financial support to countries with weaker systems, helping them move from voluntary guidelines toward more enforceable rules.

South Africa, already a regional leader, could share its experience with stress testing and green finance frameworks.

Africa also has the potential to position itself as a hub for renewable energy and sustainable finance. With vast solar and wind resources, expanding urban centres, and an increasingly digital financial sector, the continent could leapfrog towards a greener future if investment and regulation advance together.

Success stories in Kenya’s sustainable banking practices and Morocco’s renewable energy expansion show that progress is possible when financial systems adapt.

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What happens next will matter greatly. By expanding and enforcing climate-related financial rules, Africa can reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks while unlocking opportunities in green finance and renewable energy.

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Finance

'There Could Be A Whole Other Life He's Living' 'The Ramsey Show' Host Says After Wife Finds $209K Debt Behind Her Back

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'There Could Be A Whole Other Life He's Living' 'The Ramsey Show' Host Says After Wife Finds 9K Debt Behind Her Back
A hidden financial discovery exposed the scale of debt inside a long-running marriage. Anne, a caller from Pittsburgh, reached out to “The Ramsey Show” for guidance after uncovering $209,000 in credit card balances. Married for 19 years and now in her 50s, she said the balances accumulated without her knowledge. She said her husband managed nearly all household finances. Anne added that her name was not on the primary bank account. She had no online access, and both personal and business expense
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