With former President Donald Trump being rushed off stage after shots were fired at his Pennsylvania rally, the only thing that’s safe to say that nobody knows what’s going to happen next in U.S. politics or the 2024 election.

The events on Saturday are tragic and police have reported that at least one attendee is dead, as is the alleged shooter. It’s hard not to feel like we’re living through particularly unstable times.

For more than two weeks, the news has been dominated by more mundane matters, like growing calls from Democrats, donors and political observers for President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race after his shaky first debate performance last month. There’s been a steady trickle of stories about the president’s health declining and concerns whether the 81-year-old is up to the job, as well as some devastating internal polls for Dems in swing states.

Biden tried to allay those fears as he barnstormed through Northville and Detroit on Friday, joking about his age but also delivering a defiant message.

“You made me the nominee,” Biden declared at Renaissance High School in Detroit — where he notably held his last rally in March 2020 before winning Michigan’s critical Democratic primary. “No one else. Not the press; not the pundits; not the insiders; not the donors. You the voters, you decided. No one else, and I’m not going anywhere.”

The crowd was definitely into it, waving “Motown is Joetown” signs and chanting, “Four more years!” and “Don’t give up!”

Biden’s energized performance seemed to calm the jangled nerves of some Democratic leaders and assorted critics, as did his Wednesday press conference after the NATO summit, where he continued to demonstrate his mastery of foreign affairs.

At the moment, it appears that momentum to give the president the old heave-ho from the ticket has stalled, but check back tomorrow, because it doesn’t take much to get Democrats to hit the ol’ panic button.

But even as the dump Biden furor appeared to hit a fever pitch post-debate, I’ve looked for three factors to assess if the president will be the nominee. And so far, I’m not seeing the path to derail the Biden train.

First of all, Biden has made it clear that he’s not leaving willingly, defiantly announcing in an ABC interview that only the “Lord Almighty” could make him quit.

“I’ve got to finish this job,” he proclaimed days later at the NATO press conference. “Because there’s so much at stake.”

If you’re a Biden ally, you’ll probably view this as the president seeing a second term as a moral obligation to the country. He’s long cast himself as an underdog who’s been counted out again and again and now he’s determined to win his last fight.

If you’re in the camp that believes he’s stayed too late at the party, you’re more likely inclined to view this as an exercise in egoism from a man more concerned about his place in history than the nation he’s supposed to be fighting for. Biden has always been stubborn, but this time millions could pay the price if he falls to Trump.

Next, since Biden isn’t planning to leave quietly, that means that Democrats have to have a clear plan in place to broom him from the ticket. So far, more than a dozen members of Congress (and actor George Clooney) have told Biden to withdraw, including vulnerable first-term U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids).

Dozens of other leaders have expressed their support for the president, but not-so-subtly left the door open to him dropping out.

While Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer posted on social media last week that Biden “is in it to win it and I’m damn proud to support him,” she also said on CNN that “I don’t think that it would hurt” if both Biden and Trump took cognitive tests. And yes, Whitmer knows how to shut down a question — nobody forced her to say that.

But it’s going to take more than lesser-known lawmakers taking a stand while bigger names fling passive-aggressive comments. It would seem to me that any real effort to get Biden to stand down would have to start with his former running mate, President Barack Obama, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), one of the few people Biden appears to consider an equal.

While there have been some reports of private discussions, neither Obama nor Pelosi have taken the dramatic step of making a public statement for Biden to step aside. Both are considered to be extremely measured, so it would seem that they’ve yet to assess that such an effort would be successful.

Nobody knows how to count votes like Nancy Pelosi, after all.

Lastly, the anti-Biden forces have yet to unite over an alternative. Most lawmakers’ statements have just focused on Biden withdrawing without wading into what happens next. They’ve only proposed half a plan, which seems obscenely irresponsible, given the stakes.

The logical choice to replace Biden — and indeed, at this late hour, perhaps the only logistically viable one — is Vice President Kamala Harris. After all, she’s been training for the job for the last four years and has emerged as the administration’s clarion voice on Democrats’ best issue: reproductive rights.

Yet there’s a palpable unease from pundits, who have long judged Harris as being too shallow and liberal to run the country. There’s a yearning to bypass to first female, Black American and Asian-American vice president for (white) governors with star power, like Whitmer, California’s Gavin Newsom or Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker.

Naturally, these analysts tend to forget that African-American women are the base of the Democratic Party.

But of course, it can get dumber.

Some analysts are hankering for an open convention that probably would result in boffo ratings, but it’s hard to see how the nonstop “Dems in Disarray” coverage of floor fights and screaming matches would help the party effectively unite around a new nominee and win in November.

Other pine for a “blitz primary,” which would certainly fuel the charges of “rigged” elections we’ve been hearing from extremists since 2016. In something that reads like a fantastical script rejected from the old series “Scandal,” the nation would turn its lonely eyes to Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey and Taylor Swift to moderate weekly forums with hopefuls in the runup to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month.

Yes, I’m sure that wouldn’t all veer wildly off the rails (and T. Swift would definitely take a break from the European leg of her stunningly successful “Eras Tour” to join that circus).

So as of now, Democrats find themselves in the uneasy position with a weakened nominee who’s dug in, a handful of elected officials calling for him to go while party leaders assess their options, and an endless stream of backbiting, palace intrigue stories dominating the news (at least before the Trump rally shooting on Saturday).

In politics, inertia usually wins out. That could well be enough to save Biden’s nomination — but it remains to be seen if he can demonstrate the forcefulness and fortitude to lead Democrats to another victory in November.

Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Susan J. Demas for questions: [email protected]. Follow Michigan Advance on Facebook and X.