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Machines Aren’t Coming for the Lords of Finance, Yet

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Machines Aren’t Coming for the Lords of Finance, Yet

(Bloomberg Opinion) — Central bankers aren’t born as chronic worriers, but they quickly acquire the trait. They are now spending considerable time fretting about artificial intelligence: Its ability to play havoc with prices, jobs, and the security of banking. As gut-wrenching as the meltdown of 2008 was, imagine if a rogue machine turbocharged a market rout. 

It’s not quite a doomsday scenario where AI runs amok and destroys the Earth, said Eddie Yue of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority at a recent conference. But there are plenty of dangers emerging, he added. Yue’s counterpart in Singapore warned of the potential for fraud and cyber attacks. American and UK officials are fearful that algorithms will be used to curtail lending to minorities. While acknowledging the benefits of rapid technological advances to the overall economy, most are wary. 

One thing the lords of finance shouldn’t stress about is dilution of their power. Sure, the legions of Ph.D economists that staff central banks may thin. New algorithms that sift real-time data on everything from car sales to foot traffic at malls will rightly push analysts to think about how their roles will transform. But rather than make the men and women who actually set interest rates redundant, AI could make them mightier citizens. 

The Bank for International Settlements declared as much, saying that the most basic of tasks, deciding borrowing costs, will still be done by mortals. HAL, the computer that assumes God-like qualities in the film 2001: A Space Odyssey, isn’t coming for the Federal Open Market Committee and its global peers. “The ways we organize ourselves and our societies are that we like to hold human beings accountable,” Cecilia Skingsley, head of the Innovation Hub at the BIS, told reporters last month. “You know, changing politicians, possibly changing central-bank governors from time to time.”

She may be lowballing it. The importance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his cohort may only grow. As retailers develop applications to keep ever closer tabs on competitors and broader markets, the price of milk in Denmark, for example, may fluctuate during a press conference by Powell, argues Lars Christensen, an associate professor at the Copenhagen Business School. When OPEC raises or cuts oil production, that’s very quickly reflected in the price of gasoline at the roadside. Why shouldn’t the same apply to basic food staples, asks Christensen, cofounder of PAICE, a consulting firm specializing in AI and data analysis.

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“In many high-income countries, we already have electronic price tags,” he told me. “You might as well plug them into an algorithm. I don’t think my example of standing in a supermarket watching the price of milk change on the screen as Powell announces rates is unrealistic. For practical reasons, we might change the price only when the supermarket closes or you might have a mechanism that says the price can’t be increased while the customer is in the store. The concept is there.”(1)

Utterances from a generation ago can be resurrected to provide bond-market signals, thanks to a ChatGPT-based language model. JPMorgan Chase & Co. built a program that uses speeches dating back decades to detect the evolution of policy signals. The bank’s economists discovered that when the model showed a rise in inflation concern among Fed speakers between meetings, the following FOMC statement had grown more hawkish. The opposite is also true. Turn that into a trading strategy and the opportunities for a payday are plenty. Initially tracking the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, JPMorgan expanded the method to 10 major developed-market central banks.

There’s always room for nuance and considered opinion. Sometimes the signals aren’t especially clear. For example, how do you interpret the Reserve Bank of Australia’s phrase du jour, “We aren’t ruling anything in or out?” A career Bundesbank policymaker might be less inclined to ease than, say, someone from the Bank of France. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda can veer off on tangents. His predecessor delighted in surprising investors.   

AI works best when complementing human judgment. In some arenas, there is no substitute for experience. The machines helping reduce tax evasion in Turkey perform a public service, for example. Still, nobody would consider the country a gold standard for performance: Inflation is a stratospheric 72%. There needs to be a combination of electrons and brain waves.The employment mandate of central bankers themselves is unlikely to disappear. If Donald Trump wins this year’s presidential election, he’s pledged not to re-appoint Powell, who may not even want a third term. Safe to say HAL won’t make the shortlist —  this time.  

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(1) Christensen discussed the subject at length in George Mason University’s Macro Musings podcast last month.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. Previously, he was executive editor for economics at Bloomberg News.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com/opinion

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Major bank ‘really sorry’ over email to customers as Aussies slugged from tomorrow

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Major bank ‘really sorry’ over email to customers as Aussies slugged from tomorrow
ME Bank has been the quickest to pass on the rate hike, but it made an awkward ‘error’ when telling customers yesterday. (Source: TikTok/Supplied/Getty)

An Australian bank has apologised to its customers after telling them it was “pleased” to swiftly pass on the RBA’s latest rate hike this week. ME Bank is among the quickest lenders to pass on the interest rake hike, with customers to start incurring the higher level of interest from Saturday.

Understandably, most customers did not welcome the news. A sentiment that the was perhaps compounded by the bank’s cheery tone and apparent delight.

While a rate hike was widely predicted by the market and economists, ME Bank’s team apparently weren’t quite as prepared, seemingly using the same correspondence from the previous rate cuts last year.

On Wednesday night shortly after 9pm, the bank again emailed customers saying it was “really sorry” about the correspondence and any confusion it caused.

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“This email was sent in error, and does not reflect ME’s commitment to communicate to you with clarity and empathy.

“We understand that rates increases can be challenging, and we’re here to support you.”

The mea culpa came five hours after the bank’s initial correspondence, with plenty of customers taking to social media to poke fun at the gaffe, with some even claiming it was enough for them to think about switching lenders.

Yahoo Finance contacted ME Bank to ask about the error.

Most major lenders will not start charging the higher level of interest until late next week, or the week after, according to an extensive roundup from consumer group Finder.

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ME Bank customers will be among the earliest to be subject to the higher rate when it takes effect from Saturday, February 7.

Borrowers with BOQ, which owns ME Bank, will be hit from tomorrow, February 6.

ING Bank customers will be effected from Tuesday, February 10.

ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and NAB customers will be impacted from Friday, February 13. The same day as Bankwest and Suncorp customers.

Westpac borrowers will see their interest increased a few days later on February 17. Some of the other subsidiaries of the Big Four lenders will also pass it on that day, including St George, Bank of Melbourne and Bank SA. It’s the same date for Teachers Mutual and Uni Bank.

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Meanwhile Macquarie Bank will pass it on from February 20.

A majority of mortgage borrowers didn’t reduce their payments after the recent rate cuts, so the RBA’s move this week might not cool the economy to the degree it wants. For that reason, forecasters are predicting further rate hikes to come for borrowers this year.

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Climate Finance

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Climate Finance
The transition and adaptation financing gap in low- and lower-middle-income countries is a focus of multiple international forums. Developed economies may have resources to plan and prepare, but the global energy transition cannot successfully happen without developing and emerging economies.
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Women in tech and finance at higher risk from AI job losses, report says

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Women in tech and finance at higher risk from AI job losses, report says

Women working in tech and financial services are at greater risk of losing their jobs to increased use of AI and automation than their male peers, according to a report that found experienced females were also being sidelined as a result of “rigid hiring processes”.

“Mid-career” women – with at least five years’ experience – are being overlooked for digital roles in the tech and financial and professional services sectors, where they are traditionally underrepresented, according to the report by the City of London Corporation.

The governing body that runs the capital’s Square Mile found female applicants were discriminated against by rigid, and sometimes automated, screening of their CVs, which did not take into account career gaps related to caring for children or relatives, or only narrowly considered their professional experience.

To reverse the trend, the corporation is calling on employers to focus on re-skilling female workers not currently in technical roles, particularly those in clerical positions most at risk of being displaced by automation.

It is estimated that about 119,000 clerical roles in tech and the financial and professional service sectors, predominantly carried out by women, will be displaced by automation over the next decade. Reskilling those affected by these job losses could save companies from making redundancy payments totalling as much as £757m, the report found.

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Upskilling staff would allow employers to focus on candidates’ potential rather than their past technical experience, the report found. It is estimated that up to 60,000 women in tech leave their roles each year for reasons including lack of advancement, lack of recognition and inadequate pay.

Dame Susan Langley, the mayor of City of London, said: “By investing in people and supporting the development of digital skills within the workforce, employers can unlock enormous potential and build stronger, more resilient teams. Focusing on talent, adaptability and opportunity will ensure the UK continues to lead on innovation and remains a global hub for digital excellence.”

Recent surveys have shown that as many as a quarter of UK workers are worried that their jobs could disappear in the next five years because of AI, according to a poll by the international recruitment company Randstad. Union leaders have called on companies to commit to investing in workforce skills and training.

The City of London Corporation found that women were being overlooked for roles even as difficulties in hiring talent meant more than 12,000 digital vacancies in these sectors went unfilled in 2024.

Companies have tried to deal with worker shortages by increasing wages above the national average, but the report found that higher pay rates would not solve the problem. It warned that the widening digital talent gap was forecast to last until at least 2035 and that under this scenario the UK could miss out on more than £10bn of economic growth.

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