Finance
Machines Aren’t Coming for the Lords of Finance, Yet
(Bloomberg Opinion) — Central bankers aren’t born as chronic worriers, but they quickly acquire the trait. They are now spending considerable time fretting about artificial intelligence: Its ability to play havoc with prices, jobs, and the security of banking. As gut-wrenching as the meltdown of 2008 was, imagine if a rogue machine turbocharged a market rout.
It’s not quite a doomsday scenario where AI runs amok and destroys the Earth, said Eddie Yue of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority at a recent conference. But there are plenty of dangers emerging, he added. Yue’s counterpart in Singapore warned of the potential for fraud and cyber attacks. American and UK officials are fearful that algorithms will be used to curtail lending to minorities. While acknowledging the benefits of rapid technological advances to the overall economy, most are wary.
One thing the lords of finance shouldn’t stress about is dilution of their power. Sure, the legions of Ph.D economists that staff central banks may thin. New algorithms that sift real-time data on everything from car sales to foot traffic at malls will rightly push analysts to think about how their roles will transform. But rather than make the men and women who actually set interest rates redundant, AI could make them mightier citizens.
The Bank for International Settlements declared as much, saying that the most basic of tasks, deciding borrowing costs, will still be done by mortals. HAL, the computer that assumes God-like qualities in the film 2001: A Space Odyssey, isn’t coming for the Federal Open Market Committee and its global peers. “The ways we organize ourselves and our societies are that we like to hold human beings accountable,” Cecilia Skingsley, head of the Innovation Hub at the BIS, told reporters last month. “You know, changing politicians, possibly changing central-bank governors from time to time.”
She may be lowballing it. The importance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his cohort may only grow. As retailers develop applications to keep ever closer tabs on competitors and broader markets, the price of milk in Denmark, for example, may fluctuate during a press conference by Powell, argues Lars Christensen, an associate professor at the Copenhagen Business School. When OPEC raises or cuts oil production, that’s very quickly reflected in the price of gasoline at the roadside. Why shouldn’t the same apply to basic food staples, asks Christensen, cofounder of PAICE, a consulting firm specializing in AI and data analysis.
“In many high-income countries, we already have electronic price tags,” he told me. “You might as well plug them into an algorithm. I don’t think my example of standing in a supermarket watching the price of milk change on the screen as Powell announces rates is unrealistic. For practical reasons, we might change the price only when the supermarket closes or you might have a mechanism that says the price can’t be increased while the customer is in the store. The concept is there.”(1)
Utterances from a generation ago can be resurrected to provide bond-market signals, thanks to a ChatGPT-based language model. JPMorgan Chase & Co. built a program that uses speeches dating back decades to detect the evolution of policy signals. The bank’s economists discovered that when the model showed a rise in inflation concern among Fed speakers between meetings, the following FOMC statement had grown more hawkish. The opposite is also true. Turn that into a trading strategy and the opportunities for a payday are plenty. Initially tracking the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, JPMorgan expanded the method to 10 major developed-market central banks.
There’s always room for nuance and considered opinion. Sometimes the signals aren’t especially clear. For example, how do you interpret the Reserve Bank of Australia’s phrase du jour, “We aren’t ruling anything in or out?” A career Bundesbank policymaker might be less inclined to ease than, say, someone from the Bank of France. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda can veer off on tangents. His predecessor delighted in surprising investors.
AI works best when complementing human judgment. In some arenas, there is no substitute for experience. The machines helping reduce tax evasion in Turkey perform a public service, for example. Still, nobody would consider the country a gold standard for performance: Inflation is a stratospheric 72%. There needs to be a combination of electrons and brain waves.The employment mandate of central bankers themselves is unlikely to disappear. If Donald Trump wins this year’s presidential election, he’s pledged not to re-appoint Powell, who may not even want a third term. Safe to say HAL won’t make the shortlist — this time.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
(1) Christensen discussed the subject at length in George Mason University’s Macro Musings podcast last month.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. Previously, he was executive editor for economics at Bloomberg News.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com/opinion
Finance
Sports betting should be regulated as a financial product, not gambling, aspiring prediction market provider says
MIAMI BEACH, Fla. — Sports betting should be regulated as a federal financial product rather than a state-licensed casino product, two panelists said Thursday.
Appearing at Consensus Miami 2026, Jacob Fortinsky, co-founder and CEO of sports betting platform Novig, said the legacy sportsbook model is structurally broken because it treats winning bettors as cheaters.
“Sports betting is really the only industry in the country that regularly limits and bans their power users,” Fortinsky said. He framed sports event contracts as binary financial instruments that “for so long have been treated as a gambling product and instead should really be treated as a financial product.” Globally, he said, sports betting is “a $2 trillion asset class still dominated by these legacy casinos.”
Adam Mastrelli, founder of 57 Maiden, a firm that builds AI-driven trading strategies for prediction markets, validated the critique with personal experience.
“My partner and I got kicked off of two big sportsbooks within two months of trading because we were sharp,” he said, It’s like “LeBron James getting kicked out of the NBA for being too good,” he added.
Mastrelli said the team turned to Novig, which he said charges no fees and allows traders to create synthetic positions.
Mastrelli said his firm’s edge decayed quickly, and of 154 proposed trading strategies, only three currently run profitably.
“This edge will go away,” he said, “so if you can build systems that can keep up with that edge and that alpha… then it becomes really, really intriguing.” His most profitable season, he said, was the WNBA.
Fortinsky said Novig is on track to transition this summer from a sweepstakes model live in 35 states to a federal DCM framework that will let it operate in all 50 states. An earlier attempt to be regulated at the state level in Colorado, he said, was a wake-up call. “Regulators told us essentially you’re naive if you think we care about consumer protection or innovation or market efficiency. We really just care about our tax revenue,” he said.
The federal-state fight, Fortinsky added, is “going to get to the Supreme Court in the next two or three years,” with 15 pending lawsuits between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi, Robinhood and various states. Within prediction markets, he argued sports is “counterintuitively actually the safest vertical,” given the bigger insider-trading and manipulation concerns around political and event-driven contracts.
Mastrelli, who said he avoids offshore platforms entirely, compared prediction markets to equities exchanges: “When I see a robust equities market now, this is AQR against SIG. It doesn’t go away.”
Harley-Davidson’s new CEO wants to transform how people think about the iconic motorcycle brand, so the company is trying something different.
This week, Harley announced a new strategy that focuses on lower-priced bikes, rather than relying on older, more affluent customers to buy its higher-margin touring models.
“Back to the Bricks builds on our core strengths and competitive advantages, harnessing the passion of our riders to deliver profitable growth for the Company and both our dealers and shareholders,” Harley CEO Artie Starrs said this week. “As we drive towards this new phase of growth, we remain committed to the craftsmanship and dedication that define our brand.”
Entry-level Harley-Davidsons cost about $13,000, while the higher-end Adventure Touring models average about $23,250, and the Premium Range &CVO models cost about $38,500, according to Reuters.
Harley’s new strategy targets a core profit of over $350 million from its motorcycle business by 2027 and over $150 million in cost reductions.
To kick off the new strategy, Harley is introducing Sprint, a new entry-level model powered by a smaller 440cc engine, later in the year.
What is Harley-Davidson’s “Back to the Bricks” strategy?
Harley’s new strategy relies on more than just pushing buyers toward cheaper vehicles to increase volume. The 123-year-old company has a set of five pillars on which it is building its future.
Harley-Davidson “Back to the Bricks” 5-point plan
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Deep appreciation of Harley-Davidson’s competitive advantages and legacy: The Company’s iconic brand, diversified and powerful revenue channels, and best-in-class dealer network provide a powerful foundation for growth.
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Renewed commitment to exclusive dealer network to drive enterprise profitability: Harley-Davidson’s dealers are a competitive advantage. The Company is planning actions to enable dealers to double profitability in 2026 and then double it again by 2029.
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Immediate actions to recapture share in areas where Harley-Davidson has right to win: Harley-Davidson has strong legacy equity in existing markets including new motorcycles, used motorcycles, Parts & Accessories, and Apparel & Licensing. The Company’s new strategy is focused on positioning the Company to regain share and drive meaningful volume growth in categories where it benefits from credibility, scale, and deep rider connection.
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Strong financial position with a path to stronger free cash flow and EBITDA margin: Cost and restructuring actions already underway support a path to stronger free cash flow and EBITDA margin over time.
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Bolstered management team with balance of fresh perspectives and institutional knowledge: Harley-Davidson has made a number of leadership appointments that support the Company as it leverages its innate strengths.
Written by Jitendra Parashar at The Motley Fool Canada
Dividend investing can be one of the simplest ways to build long-term wealth while creating a steady stream of passive income. But in my opinion, a good dividend stock is about much more than just a high yield. Beyond dividend yield, investors should also look for companies with durable businesses, reliable cash flows, and a history of rewarding shareholders consistently over time.
That’s exactly why many investors turn to financial stocks. Banks and asset managers often generate recurring earnings through lending, investing, and wealth management activities, allowing them to support stable dividend payments even during uncertain market conditions.
Two Canadian financial stocks that stand out right now are AGF Management (TSX:AGF.B) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD). Both companies offer attractive dividends backed by solid financial performance and long-term growth strategies. In this article, I’ll explain why these two financial stocks could be worth considering for income-focused investors right now.
AGF Management stock continues to reward shareholders
AGF Management is a Toronto-based asset manager with businesses across investments, private markets, and wealth management. Through these divisions, the company offers equity, fixed income, alternative, and multi-asset investment strategies to retail, institutional, and private wealth clients.
Following a 59% rally over the last 12 months, AGF stock currently trades at $16.67 per share with a market cap of roughly $1.1 billion. At current levels, the stock offers a quarterly dividend yield of 3.3%.
One reason behind AGF’s strong recent performance is its increasingly diversified business model. The company has expanded its investment capabilities and broadened its geographic reach, helping it perform well across varying market environments.
In the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 (ended in February), AGF posted free cash flow of $36 million, up 14% year over year (YoY), driven mainly by higher management, advisory, and administration fees. These fees climbed to $92.5 million as demand for the company’s investment offerings strengthened.
AGF has also been focusing on expanding its alternative investment business and introducing new investment products. With strong cash generation and growing demand for alternative investments, AGF Management looks well-positioned to continue rewarding investors over the long term.
TD Bank stock remains a dependable dividend giant
Toronto-Dominion Bank, or TD Bank, is one of North America’s largest banks, serving millions of customers through its Canadian banking, U.S. retail banking, wealth management and insurance, and wholesale banking operations.
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