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Nevada shows biggest lead for Trump over Biden – 13 points – in new poll of swing states

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Nevada shows biggest lead for Trump over Biden – 13 points – in new poll of swing states


Could the third time be the charm for Donald Trump in Nevada?

It certainly looks like a possibility based on a new poll by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Trump lost in 2016 by 2.4 percentage points to Hillary Clinton and in 2020 by about the same difference to Joe Biden.

But the new poll of six swing states shows that among likely voters surveyed in Nevada, former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by 13 percentage points: 51% to 38%.

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That difference may hinge on favorability.

Those with a “net unfavorable” view of Biden – somewhat or very unfavorable – is 64%. It rises to 70% net unfavorable among Nevada’s large nonpartisan population.

Regarding Trump, Nevada registered voters have a 49% net unfavorable view, according to those who responded to the poll. Fifty-four percent of registered nonpartisan have a net unfavorable view – 16 percentage points lower than for Biden.

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are added to the mix, the difference stays approximately the same: Trump 14 points ahead of Biden if the vote were held today.

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RFK Jr. would get 12% of Nevada’s votes, according to the survey.

As for whether he helps or harms one of the major party candidates, it doesn’t appear obvious: 10% of registered Republicans, 10% of Democrats and 15% of independents said they’d vote for RFK Jr.

Other poll findings – race/ethnicity, Rosen v. Brown

The poll shows Trump with a 9 percentage point lead in Nevada among registered Hispanic voters and a 6-point lead among “other” racial or ethnic minorities.

When Nevada voters were asked if they would support Democrat Jacky Rosen or Republican Sam Brown for U.S. Senate, Rosen holds a 2 percentage point advantage: 40% to 38%, which amounts to a toss-up based on the margin of error.

The Senate race shows a lot of room for movement, as about 23% of respondents said they didn’t know which one they’d pick or they refused to answer.

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Trump leading in most other swing states

Among all the swing states surveyed, Trump has a 6 percentage point lead with a margin of error of 1.9 points for the overall survey.

Trump has an advantage in all but one of the other swing states surveyed.

  • Arizona: Trump ahead by 6 percentage points among likely voters
  • Georgia: Trump ahead by 9
  • Michigan: Biden ahead by 1
  • Pennsylvania: Trump ahead by 3
  • Wisconsin: Trump ahead by 1

The margin of error in Nevada’s results is reported as 4.5 percentage points.

The polls were conducted from April 28 to May 9, and 21% of the surveys of Nevada Hispanic voters were conducted in Spanish.

How this poll compares to others

An Emerson College/The Hill poll released April 30 showed the presidential race much tighter in Nevada, with Trump having a 1-point lead over Biden.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, also in April, showed Trump up by 8 percent points in Nevada while one in March by the Wall Street Journal had Trump ahead by 4.

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However, the latest results track with another New York Times/Siena College poll about six months ago that showed Trump with a 12-point lead over Biden.

Mark Robison is the state politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal, with occasional forays into other topics. Email comments to mrobison@rgj.com or comment on Mark’s Greater Reno Facebook page.



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Nevada

Nysos, Nevada Beach Set for Clash in Laffit Pincay Jr.

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Nysos, Nevada Beach Set for Clash in Laffit Pincay Jr.


A trio of grade 1 races are set to take place on Santa Anita Park‘s opening day Dec. 28, but the undercard of graded stakes action will add to the fireworks with an expected clash of recent grade 1 winners in the $200,000 Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes (G2).

Those grade 1 winners both emerge from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert with Nysos  carrying the silks of Baoma Corp. and Nevada Beach  racing for Michael Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman.

Nysos is aiming to cap his 4-year-old season with a fourth consecutive triumph. Although it has been challenging at times to keep the son of Nyquist   on the track, his talent has never been in doubt with six wins from seven starts. He proved himself at the top level Nov. 1 with a thrilling, stretch-duel victory over champion Citizen Bull   in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

A $550,000 purchase from the Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale has raced the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Pincay only once before, triumphing by 2 3/4 lengths in the San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar. He’ll be on comfortable ground as his three starts at Santa Anita have been won by a combined 23 1/2 lengths.

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Santa Anita has also been a productive track for Nevada Beach, who won the Goodwood Stakes (G1) there in September. Going into this race, the son of Omaha Beach   bounced back from a seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to outgame British Isles  by a half-length in the Native Diver Stakes (G3) at Del Mar Nov. 22.

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British Isles is among five rivals entered in the Pincay from outside the Baffert barn, a group that includes grade 3 winner Cornishman .

Entries: Laffit Pincay, Jr. S. (G2)

Santa Anita Park, Sunday, December 28, 2025, Race 6

  • Grade II
  • 1 1/16m
  • Dirt
  • $200,000
  • 3 yo’s & up
  • 1:30 PM (local)


Namaron, Maaz Meet Again in Mathis Mile

Seven 3-year-old runners are entered in the $200,000 Mathis Mile Stakes (G2T) traveling a mile on turf.

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Hronis Racing’s Namaron  is the lone contender with winning success at the graded level, courtesy of a group 3 triumph in Germany in April. The Amaron  gelding’s two American starts for trainer John Sadler have both resulted in third-place finishes against stakes company.

The most recent came in October’s Twilight Derby (G2T) at Santa Anita where he finished a half-length behind runner-up Maaz . That French-bred runner trained by Michael McCarthy for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Madaket Stables, Sabby Racing, and Michael House returned in the Hollywood Derby (G1T), finishing seventh and beaten 4 3/4 lengths after his saddle slipped early in the race.

Entries: Mathis Mile S. (G2T)

Santa Anita Park, Sunday, December 28, 2025, Race 5

  • Grade IIT
  • 1m
  • Turf
  • $200,000
  • 3 yo
  • 1:00 PM (local)


Endlessly Aims to Right the Ship in San Gabriel

Considered one of the top turf talents of his crop as a 2-year-old, Endlessly  is aiming to right the ship and close out his 4-year-old season with a win in the $100,000 San Gabriel Stakes (G3T).

Photo: Chad B. Harmon
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Endlessly trains for the 2024 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs

The Amerman Racing homebred finished third in the American Stakes (G3T)—his seasonal debut this spring and first start in 8 1/2 months—but has not reached the board in three starts since. McCarthy gave the 4-year-old Oscar Performance   colt a little break following the Aug. 30 Del Mar Handicap (G2T) where he loomed a threat early but then faded to ninth. McCarthy also removes the blinkers he added two starts back.

McCarthy will also saddle grade 1-placed Mondego  for Cheyenne Stables.

Also looking to right the ship is Kretz Racing’s Cabo Spirit  for trainer George Papaprodromou. After defeating Endlessly in the American Stakes, he went on to hit the board in four straight graded attempts. However, the typical pacesetter had competition on the lead in his most recent start, the Nov. 29 Seabiscuit Handicap (G2T) and faded to finish eighth.

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Entries: San Gabriel S. (G3T)

Santa Anita Park, Sunday, December 28, 2025, Race 9

  • Grade IIIT
  • 1 1/8m
  • Turf
  • $100,000
  • 3 yo’s & up
  • 3:00 PM (local)






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Jewish Nevada lights up Downtown Summerlin with festive Menorah Lighting event

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Jewish Nevada lights up Downtown Summerlin with festive Menorah Lighting event


Jewish Nevada hosted its annual Menorah Lighting event at Downtown Summerlin, offering entertainment and activities for the whole family to celebrate Hanukkah.

Attendees enjoyed free jelly donuts, hot cocoa, and ice skating at the Rock Rink.

Stefanie Tuzman is the President and CEO of Jewish Nevada.

She says, “We are so excited to be lighting the eighth and final candle of Hanukkah. There’s a bunch of kids activities. Downtown Summerlin generously donated some prizes for us to be able to giveaway.”

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Jewish Nevada held a raffle, with participants for a chance to win prizes.



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Nevada, Utah State earn big wins to open Mountain West men’s basketball play

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Nevada, Utah State earn big wins to open Mountain West men’s basketball play


Ten Mountain West men’s basketball teams opened conference play on Saturday, and two contenders had statement wins on their home courts. 

To kick off the day, Utah State (10-1, 1-0) hit the century mark in a 100-58 beatdown of Colorado State (9-3, 0-1). The Aggies’ 42-point win was the largest margin of victory in the 87-year history of the matchup. 

Six different Aggies scored in double figures, led by Mason Falslev’s 18 points, four rebounds and two assists. 

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“When you blow teams out, your numbers look great,” Utah State head coach Jerrod Calhoun said after the game. “So our guys know, like, we need to beat everybody we can. If we have a lead, we can’t call anything off. You know, that’s the way the analytics world works.”

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Colorado State star sophomore forward Kyle Jorgensen suffered an apparent knee injury in the opening minutes of Saturday’s game. He watched the second half from the bench on crutches. 

“First of all, I hope (Jorgensen) is OK,” Calhoun said. “He is, in my opinion, one of the most improved guys in the country. So things changed drastically game plan-wise when he was out.”

Later in the day, Nevada (9-3, 1-0) controlled the action from the opening tip in an 81-66 home victory over Boise State (8-4, 0-1). 

“We worked hard. We knew the magnitude of this game,” Nevada sophomore forward Elijah Price said. “It feels good to start off conference on the right foot. Coach was telling us all week that it was going to be physical, so we practiced for it. We prepared for it and we wanted to hit them first. I think that’s what we did, and that’s why we won.”

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Boise State head coach Leon Rice echoed Price’s sentiments. 

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“(Steve) Alford knows us and he knows that we’re a physical team,” Rice said. “He got his team ready to go as far as the physicality of the game. They were really physical, and they were the aggressor. Their technique was a little better. When you’re the more physical team, usually you’ve got to come out and hit first. And they did that, they came out and hit us first.”

In its first conference game as a member of the MWC, Grand Canyon (7-4, 1-0) jumped out to a big first-half lead and cruised to an 82-70 road win over Wyoming (9-3, 0-1).

New Mexico (10-2, 1-0) picked up a dominant 88-65 home win over San Jose State (5-7, 0-1) while UNLV (5-6, 1-0) stormed back in the second half to down Fresno State (6-6, 0-1), 84-72. 

San Diego State (6-4, 1-0) played a strong first half at Arizona before eventually falling in the non-conference game, 68-45. 

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