Nevada

Nevada shows biggest lead for Trump over Biden – 13 points – in new poll of swing states

Published

2 years ago

May 13, 2024

Nevada shows biggest lead for Trump over Biden – 13 points – in new poll of swing states

Could the third time be the charm for Donald Trump in Nevada?

It certainly looks like a possibility based on a new poll by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Trump lost in 2016 by 2.4 percentage points to Hillary Clinton and in 2020 by about the same difference to Joe Biden.

But the new poll of six swing states shows that among likely voters surveyed in Nevada, former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by 13 percentage points: 51% to 38%.

That difference may hinge on favorability.

Those with a “net unfavorable” view of Biden – somewhat or very unfavorable – is 64%. It rises to 70% net unfavorable among Nevada’s large nonpartisan population.

Regarding Trump, Nevada registered voters have a 49% net unfavorable view, according to those who responded to the poll. Fifty-four percent of registered nonpartisan have a net unfavorable view – 16 percentage points lower than for Biden.

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are added to the mix, the difference stays approximately the same: Trump 14 points ahead of Biden if the vote were held today.

RFK Jr. would get 12% of Nevada’s votes, according to the survey.

As for whether he helps or harms one of the major party candidates, it doesn’t appear obvious: 10% of registered Republicans, 10% of Democrats and 15% of independents said they’d vote for RFK Jr.

Other poll findings – race/ethnicity, Rosen v. Brown

The poll shows Trump with a 9 percentage point lead in Nevada among registered Hispanic voters and a 6-point lead among “other” racial or ethnic minorities.

When Nevada voters were asked if they would support Democrat Jacky Rosen or Republican Sam Brown for U.S. Senate, Rosen holds a 2 percentage point advantage: 40% to 38%, which amounts to a toss-up based on the margin of error.

The Senate race shows a lot of room for movement, as about 23% of respondents said they didn’t know which one they’d pick or they refused to answer.

Trump leading in most other swing states

Among all the swing states surveyed, Trump has a 6 percentage point lead with a margin of error of 1.9 points for the overall survey.

Trump has an advantage in all but one of the other swing states surveyed.

Arizona: Trump ahead by 6 percentage points among likely voters
Georgia: Trump ahead by 9
Michigan: Biden ahead by 1
Pennsylvania: Trump ahead by 3
Wisconsin: Trump ahead by 1

The margin of error in Nevada’s results is reported as 4.5 percentage points.

The polls were conducted from April 28 to May 9, and 21% of the surveys of Nevada Hispanic voters were conducted in Spanish.

How this poll compares to others

An Emerson College/The Hill poll released April 30 showed the presidential race much tighter in Nevada, with Trump having a 1-point lead over Biden.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, also in April, showed Trump up by 8 percent points in Nevada while one in March by the Wall Street Journal had Trump ahead by 4.

However, the latest results track with another New York Times/Siena College poll about six months ago that showed Trump with a 12-point lead over Biden.

Mark Robison is the state politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal, with occasional forays into other topics. Email comments to mrobison@rgj.com or comment on Mark’s Greater Reno Facebook page.

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Nevada

Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault

Published

1 hour ago

March 4, 2026

Press Room

Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault

A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling a remote stretch of central Nevada near Tonopah, including a magnitude 4.0 quake that hit near Warm Springs Tuesday morning.

Seismologists said the activity is typical for Nevada, where clusters of earthquakes can flare up in a concentrated area. “This is a very Nevada-style earthquake sequence. We have these a lot where we just see an uptick in activity in a certain spot,” said Christie Rowe, director of the Nevada Seismological Lab.

The latest magnitude 4.0 quake struck east of Tonopah near Warm Springs. The largest earthquake in the swarm so far has measured a 4.2.

What has stood out to researchers is the fault involved. Rowe said the earthquakes are occurring along a fault stretching along the southern edge of the Monitor and Antelope ranges — and that it was previously unknown to scientists. “We didn’t know this fault was there. It’s a new fault to us — not to the Earth, obviously — but it was previously unknown,” Rowe said.

For now, the earthquakes have remained moderate. Rowe said the lab would not deploy additional temporary sensors unless activity increases to around a magnitude 5 or greater.

Seismologists said they are continuing to watch the swarm closely as Nevada works to bring the ShakeAlert early warning system to the state. The program, already active in neighboring states, can send cellphone alerts seconds before shaking arrives. “For me, it’s a really high priority. That distance to the faults gives us enough time to warn people — and that can make a big difference in reducing injuries and damage,” Rowe said.

Seismologists encouraged anyone who feels shaking to report it through the U.S. Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It” system, saying even small quakes can help scientists better understand Nevada’s seismic activity.

Experts said the swarm is worth monitoring but is not cause for alarm. They noted that earthquakes like the 5.8 that hit near Yerington in December 2024 typically happen in Nevada about every eight to 10 years, and said they will continue monitoring the current activity closely.

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Nevada

Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says

Published

13 hours ago

March 3, 2026

Press Room

Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says

Nevada state court is the proper venue for reviewing whether KalshiEX LLC is improperly accepting sports wagers without a license, a federal district court said.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board showed that the state statutes under which it seeks relief don’t require interpreting federal law, Judge Miranda M. Du of the US District Court for the District of Nevada said in a Monday order. The board’s action is now remanded to the First Judicial District Court in Carson City, Nev., the order said.

The board in 2025 urged Kalshi, a financial services company, to get a gaming license, but the …

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Nevada

EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues

Published

1 day ago

March 3, 2026

Press Room

EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues

Strip gaming executives can put their best spin on the numbers, but local tourism indicators remain a major concern. Casino operators seeking to draw more people through the door still have much work to do.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board released January gaming numbers Friday. The news was underwhelming. The state gaming win was down 6.6 percent from a year earlier. The Strip took the largest hit, an 11 percent drop. But the gloomy returns were spread throughout Clark County: Downtown Las Vegas was off 5.2 percent, Laughlin suffered a 3.3 percent decline and the Boulder Strip dipped by 7 percent.

For the current fiscal year, gaming tax collections are up a paltry
2.1 percent, below budget projections.

The red flags include more than gaming numbers. Recently released figures for 2025 reveal that visitation to Las Vegas fell nearly 8 percent from 2024, which represented the lowest total since the pandemic in 2021. Traffic at Reid International Airport fell more than 10 percent in December and was down 6 percent for the year. Strip occupancy rates fell 3 percent in 2025.

To be fair, this is not just a Las Vegas problem. International travel to the United States was down
4.8 percent in January, Forbes reported, the ninth straight month of decline. Travel from Europe fell 5.2 percent, and passenger counts from Asia fell 7.5 percent. Canadian tourism cratered by 22 percent.

No doubt that President Donald Trump’s blustery rhetoric has played a role in the decline, but there’s more at work. International tourism has been largely flat since Barack Obama’s last few years in office. But domestic travel has held relatively steady although it is “starting to cool,” according to the U.S. Travel Association. Las Vegas hasn’t been helped by high-profile complaints last year about exorbitant Strip prices for parking, bottled water and other staples. Casino operators responded by offering discounts, particularly for locals, and they’ll need to continue those policies into 2026.

The tourism downturn has ramifications for the state budget, which relies primarily on sales and gaming tax revenues to support spending plans. “Nevada’s employment and economic challenges reflect deep structural factors that extend beyond cyclical economic fluctuations,” noted a recent report by economic analyst John Restrepo. “The state’s extreme concentration in tourism and gaming creates unique vulnerabilities.”

The irony is that state and local politicians have been talking for the past half century about “diversifying” the state economy. In recent years, that effort has primarily consisted of handing out millions in tax breaks and other incentives to attract businesses to the state. A dispassionate observer might ask whether that approach has brought an adequate return on investment.

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