The hardest team to figure out where to rank in college basketball is Kansas, and the biggest question I have is, what is the NCAA Tournament selection committee going to do with this team?
I ranked the Jayhawks 13th this week, which is what their season-long body of work suggests is the right spot. Using the quality-based metrics average at Bart Torvik, Kansas is 13th. Using the resume-based average, KU is 12th.
The selection committee in the past has taken into consideration results that were affected by an injury to a star player. Let’s say KU, for instance, has a similar resume to teams battling for the No. 3 or 4 seeds. Because Darryn Peterson missed however many games he’ll end up missing — 10 so far — then KU might get the bump to the 3-line.
Of course, that’s assuming Kansas has Peterson at full strength for the NCAA Tournament.
We saw what that could look like on Saturday, when the Jayhawks outscored BYU 53-33 in the first half, and Peterson scored 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting, coming off an 11-day absence from spraining his ankle against Colorado on Jan. 20.
Then, as has become customary, the Peterson experience got weird and confusing. He asked to come out early in the second half and never returned because of “cramps.” Out of the 11 games he has played, he has played to the buzzer only once — that was the CU game when he finished on a sprained ankle. It’s possible Peterson was out of shape Saturday after barely practicing since that injury, and maybe that led to him just not feeling right once he got tired. Or maybe it was a hydration issue. Or maybe he had a salty meal on Friday night. Trying to push theories or figure out what’s going on will make your head hurt, but man, it sure is fun watching him when he’s on the floor.
The Jayhawks are figuring out how to play with Peterson and he’s figuring out how to play with them, and they’ve looked elite for stretches in the last three weeks. They’ve won five straight, which started with a drubbing of Iowa State. When Peterson is on the floor over that stretch, KU is outscoring its opponents by 32.4 points per 100 possessions, per CBB Analytics.
If Peterson ever gets to the point where his injury/cramping issues are a thing of the past and he can be the most talented basketball player in the country without any “buts,” KU is a legitimate title contender.
It will be simpler if that happens before the NCAA Tournament, so the selection committee has an idea of what they’re working with when it comes to Kansas. But if it continues to play out how it has already, the committee might just need to use the season-long results without any caveats. That’s my current approach.
More below on KU and the defensive abilities of Flory Bidunga, plus why Arizona’s interior defense is so good, why Michigan didn’t get rattled when it lost its lead at Michigan State, Duke’s Cameron Boozer’s pick-and-roll prowess, Illinois’ smart attack against Nebraska, Gonzaga finding a dominant defensive lineup, Florida exploiting Alabama’s game plan and Saint Louis in an exclusive 40-40 club.
Dropped out: None
Keeping an eye on: Texas A&M, Iowa, UCF, Villanova, Kentucky, Auburn
1. Arizona (22-0)
Arizona 7-foot-2 center Motiejus Krivas is one of the best rim protectors in the country. Opponents are shooting 48.6 percent at the rim when Krivas is in the game, per CBB Analytics, and it’s not just his shot blocking that opponents have to fear. Krivas has active hands and gets a lot of strips once someone comes to a stop in the paint — usually worried about trying to score with him in the vicinity — and whenever someone does let go of the ball, he is like a goalie, able to block shots or steal passes.
Krivas has a steal in five straight games and 15 “stocks” (steals plus blocks) over that stretch.
Krivas played only eight games last year because of a foot injury, and his return is one big reason for Arizona’s improvement in 2-point defense (from 47.5 percent to 43.7) and defensive turnover rate (16.2 percent to 18.1). One question coming into the season was if Arizona would miss center Henri Veesaar, who broke out last year in Krivas’ absence and transferred to North Carolina. Veesaar has been great for the Heels, but if it was a decision between the two, it appears coach Tommy Lloyd made the right one with how elite Arizona’s defense has been.
2. Michigan (20-1)
My wife watched Michigan-Michigan State with me Friday. Her one observation: Coach Dusty May always looks like he’s smiling. Blow an 18-point lead? Still smiling. Michigan State takes the lead with 7:27 left? Still smiling. May doesn’t allow for the emotions of the game to get him too worked up. It’s Brad Stevens-esque.
His team reflected that unnerved approach. Once the Spartans took the lead, the Wolverines closed the game by scoring 28 points in their final 13 possessions.
The dagger was this after-timeout play below. Spain is one of the most popular actions in basketball. It’s a ball screen followed by a back screen for the screener. It looked like that’s what the Wolverines were running, then instead of setting the back screen, Morez Johnson Jr. slipped to the bucket:
That’s smart action and an awesome response by Michigan on the road against its rival, and there were stretches where May’s club looked like Players Era Michigan again.
4. Duke (20-1)
Last season, coach Jon Scheyer utilized the playmaking of Cooper Flagg by using him in as a ball handler in pick-and-rolls. According to Synergy, Duke ran a Flagg P&R 5.5 times per game.
Scheyer has similarly used Cameron Boozer this year but not quite as frequently — 3.3 times per game. That could be changing. Boozer is clearly Duke’s best creator and he’s become the point forward. He averaged 4.5 assists per game in January and had at least three assists in every game.
His unselfishness is clear when examining his pick-and-roll usage. Out of the 69 P&R plays he has initiated, he has attempted only 26 shots himself. On Saturday, Boozer had a season-high eight P&R plays, and he passed five times, accounting for two assists and a hockey assist.
Another reason to believe Scheyer will continue to increase his P&R usage? Duke is now scoring 1.203 points per possession on those plays, per Synergy, which bests Flagg’s mark (1.008). He’s also only one-tenth behind Flagg’s assists per game, and he’s averaging 23.5 points per game compared to Flagg’s 19.2 and doing so with higher efficiency numbers. Pretty amazing that, as good as Flagg was last season, Boozer has been even better on the offensive end.
My concerns with Duke have been point guard play, but Point Boozer might negate that mattering as much as it would with most teams.
5. Illinois (19-3)
The Illini did as good a job as anyone this season at attacking Nebraska’s no-middle defense. Illinois either attacked from the middle of the floor to avoid playing in a crowd or found cutters in the middle of the lane once they drew two to the ball:
That touch pass from Tomislav Ivisic was a thing of beauty, as was the ball movement.
The Illini are at their best simply playing out of concepts and waiting for a great shot to develop. As I’ve written ad nauseam now, Illinois went to another level once freshman Keaton Wagler moved to point guard following the UConn loss. In the 14 games since, the Illini have scored 1.2 points per possession or better in 12. They’re 13-1 over that stretch with the only loss coming on a buzzer-beater against the Huskers, and they’ve now avenged that loss. They keep winning even without senior leader Kylan Boswell. If UConn ends up losing a couple of games in the Big East, the Big Ten could end up with two No. 1 seeds, and the Illini are building a worthy resume with back-to-back road wins at Purdue and Nebraska.
9. Gonzaga (22-1)
Gonzaga has had to lean into its defense since losing Braden Huff to a knee injury, and coach Mark Few has certainly gotten the message across. The Zags are the best defensive team in the country over the last five games since Huff’s injury, according to Torvik’s tracking.
They may be getting better on that end, too. Few might have found a killer defensive combo in Saturday’s 73-65 over Saint Mary’s. His finishing lineup, from the eight-minute mark to the 35-second mark, included the trio of Tyon Grant-Foster, Emmanuel Innocenti and Jalen Warley. The Gaels had four turnovers and shot just 1-of-7 over that stretch.
Those three can cover so much ground that just about every shot is contested when they’re on the floor together. As the broadcasters referenced, Few has said that Grant-Foster blocks more jump shots than any player he’s ever coached. (He has eight this season.) And in the 37 minutes the trio has shared the floor, opponents have scored just 0.801 points per possession, shot 17.2 percent from 3 and their “Hakeem” percentage (the sum of a team’s block percentage and steal percentage) is 35.2, per CBB Analytics. (For reference, Seton Hall has the best Hakeem percentage for a team at 33.5.)
Those are dominant defensive numbers. It’ll be interesting to see if Few starts playing those three together more frequently.
13. Kansas (16-5)
Bill Self surprised BYU by starting with center Flory Bidunga guarding star AJ Dybantsa on Saturday. Dybantsa was hesitant to attack Bidunga early, not taking a shot for the first eight minutes of the game.
The numbers bear out Self’s decision: In Big 12 play, I watched every possession where Bidunga ended up isolated against a perimeter player who finished the play. For those who tried to attack him inside the arc off the bounce, they turned it over twice and shot 6-of-18, with Bidunga blocking eight of those 12 misses. He also fouled twice. When he was close enough to contest a 3, those shooters were 1-of-7.
After two years of trying to build a defense that hid center Hunter Dickinson and keep him off the perimeter, Self now has a switchable star at center.
14. Florida (16-6)
Alabama decided not to guard Florida’s bigs on Sunday, and that was a mistake. The lack of pressure allowed the Gator big men to pick apart the defense with their passing and also set screens or initiate dribble-handoffs that allowed the recipient to easily turn the corner.
And once the Florida bigs got close to the basket, it was easier for them to throw passes to each other in tight quarters because they were playing at a different altitude.
With the lack of pressure, the Gators scored 100 points and finished with just two turnovers in a high-possession game. Their 2.6 turnover percentage was the lowest ever against a Nate Oats defense.
The narrative that the SEC doesn’t have any great teams might need an adjustment. Florida is now up to No. 6 at KenPom and has both the most efficient offense and best defense in the SEC in conference games.
18. Saint Louis (21-1)
Saint Louis could join the 40-40 club this season, shooting 40-plus percent from 3 and attempting at least 40 percent of their shots from deep. Since the 3-point line moved back in 2019-20, only three teams (BYU in 2019-20, Purdue Fort Wayne in 2020-21 and Colgate in 2021-22) have hit that mark.
Against Division I opponents, the Billikens are knocking down 41.1 percent of their 3s with a 44.8 3-point rate. Usually, percentages fall once the competition picks up, but SLU is shooting an absurd 46.2 percent from deep in conference play on a 46.6 3-point rate. The Billikens made 17 of 28 3s in Friday’s win over Dayton.
They get them in a lot of ways, but one of the hardest actions to guard is dribble-handoffs, particularly with Trey Green because of his range. Green can take a DHO from near the half-court logo, an area where you’d think it’d be safe to go under, but it’s not:
Across the board, SLU’s shooting numbers look made up, and this is one of those categories. As a team, the Billikens are shooting 51.1 percent on DHO-generated 3s, per Synergy, and Green is at 62.5 percent.
Do yourself a favor and make the Billikens appointment television.
