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Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter

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Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter


Montana’s winter is shaping up to have been among the worst for snowpack in 25 years and, combined with current outlooks, has water forecasters warning that streamflow levels this summer could be well below normal across most of the state.

Early last month, Montana forecasters and water supply specialists said the state would need above-average snow during March and early April, and a wet and cool spring, to keep the meager snow left from melting away too quickly and causing low river and streamflows through the growing season and likely drought.

But according to state and federal reports and presentations released during the past two weeks, the recovery the snowpack made in February and early March tapered off in the weeks since and hasn’t continued to the extent forecasters hoped.

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“It’s not likely a full recovery to normal snowpack conditions will occur by May 1 this year across most of Montana,” Montana Snow Survey staff wrote in the April water supply forecast issued by the Natural Resources Conservation Service earlier this month.

“Below normal snowpack conditions on May 1 could be supplemented by above normal spring and summer precipitation, assuming snowpack deficits aren’t too large. Best case scenario would be a return to cooler weather and above normal precipitation for the next months.”

Since 1991, the median day that Montana’s snowpack as a whole reached its peak is April 14, at 18 inches of snow water equivalent, which is the amount of water contained in the snowpack. So far this year, the statewide snowpack peaked at 13.2 inches of snow water equivalent on April 11, three days earlier than normal and nearly 5 inches of snow water equivalent below normal.

The current snowpack of 12 inches of snow water equivalent statewide is just 74% of normal for this time of year, but also in the 7th percentile when compared to 1991-2020. To start the month, one in seven snow monitoring stations in Montana was showing its lowest or second-lowest snowpack on record. More than one-third of them were reporting a snowpack in the 10th percentile or less compared to 1991-2020.

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It’s still possible that storms and cooler weather over the next couple of weeks buoy the snowpack at higher elevations and inhibit the melt-off, but this is typically the time of the year the snowpack starts what most people hope will be a gradual decline.

Last year, the snowpack peaked at 18.1 inches of snow water equivalent on April 25, but a quick melt-off ensued because of unseasonably warm temperatures. Two weeks later, the snowpack was at 12.5 inches of snow water equivalent, and it was completely gone by June 21. The median snow-free date is June 28.

As of Monday, the snowpack was gone in the Bear Paw basin. It sat at 45% of median in the Upper Missouri Basin and between 50% and 69% of normal in the Sun-Teton-Marias, Upper Clark Fork, Bitterroot, Smith-Judith-Musselshell, Upper Yellowstone, Gallatin, Lower Clark Fork, and Flathead basins.

The Jefferson (70%), St. Mary and Kootenai (75% respectively), Madison (76%), Tongue (77%), Powder (78%), and Bighorn (85%) basins were all between 70% and 90% of their average snowpack for this time of the year on Monday.

Last week, Dr. Dennis Todey, director of the Midwest Climate Hub for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said the Upper Missouri River was running at close to its lowest point above Fort Peck in recent decades, which could have ramifications as the river heads east into the Upper Midwest, which just had one of its driest and warmest winters in 100 years.

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On the other side of the state, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers agreed earlier this month to approve a request from the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes’ Energy Keepers, Inc., to raise Flathead Lake’s spring level by two feet to 2,885 feet and hold more water in the lake.

Energy Keepers said it anticipates 2024 will be similar to the record-low flows seen in 2023 that kicked off a political firestorm surrounding the lake’s levels so it started refilling the lake early and believes the lake will be between 2,888 feet and 2,891 feet by the end of May.

“By taking these actions early in the season we increase the likelihood Flathead Lake will reach its maximum elevation in what forecasters are predicting as another dry year,” said Energy Keepers CEO Brian Lipscomb. “Should we experience unforeseen precipitation then we can make further adjustments. By May, we are prepared to make further changes to standard operations depending on weather conditions.”

Most streamflows are forecast to be between 70% and 85% of normal across all of Montana’s river basins, but could be near normal in parts of northwest, southwest, and southern Montana that saw a better snowpack this year.

But rivers including the Bighole, Blackfoot, Little Bighorn, Tongue, Clark Fork, Smith, Sun, and Teton are expected to see streamflows for April through July below 65% of normal, according to the latest forecasts.

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Those streamflows will be critical to recreation and especially agricultural production this summer, and the relatively dry winter has led to an overall expansion of drought since the beginning of the year, as the area of the state experiencing moderate and severe drought has more than doubled.

But drought conditions improved in Montana throughout March and into the beginning of April. During the past two weeks, moderate and severe drought has declined in southeastern Montana, and less of east-central Montana is abnormally dry than a week before. But after extreme drought disappeared for a week earlier this month, it has shown back up in northern Flathead County and northwestern Mineral County.

“Extreme drought conditions were introduced in the mountainous region along the Idaho and Montana border due to concerns about low snow amounts and possible early snowmelt,” National Drought Mitigation Center forecasters wrote in last Thursday’s report.

The next two weeks could bring some relief if current forecasts hold. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average precipitation over the next 6-14 days, including a possible storm this weekend that could bring rain to lower elevations and snow above 5,500 feet, according to the National Weather Service.

But the forecast for early May currently shows above-average temperatures statewide, and the forecast for May through July shows above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for western Montana, though it also shows equal chances of below- or above-average precipitation and temperatures for eastern Montana for that period.

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That will coincide with the El Niño that has persisted through winter ending, and an increasing likelihood that La Niña starts to develop into August, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which typically means cooler and wetter winters in Montana because the jet stream stays further north.

But July through October are currently forecast to bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Montana, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That means the next several weeks will be key in determining how summer shapes up water-wise.

“Given the widespread low forecasts, above normal precipitation over the next couple of months and a slow melt of the snowpack would be most beneficial for the upcoming summer,” the latest water supply forecast says. “Additionally, a wet summer could help to sustain streamflows later in the season.”

This story was initially published by The Daily Montanan, a nonprofit news organization and part of the States News network, covering state issues. Read more at dailymontanan.com.



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Women who made agriculture work in Montana

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Women who made agriculture work in Montana


Recently, I was asked to talk about what it is like to be a female rancher.

I was flattered to be asked, but I don’t know the answer.

I do know what it is like to be a human rancher and I know that I admire many women who also are ranchers.

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In fact, 36 percent of the farmers and ranchers in the U.S. are women and they manage almost half of America’s ag land.

Globally, we produce more than half of all food.

In Montana, we all benefit from amazing female leaders in agriculture.

If you want to know about improving soil health or the rewards of raising sheep, talk to Linda Poole in Malta.

If you want to learn how to organize a grassroots rancher’s organization and effect meaningful change, talk to Maggie Nutter in Sunburst.

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Trina Bradley of Dupuyer will look you in the eye and tell you everything you need to know about the impacts of grizzlies on her ranch life.

Colleen Gustafson, on the Two Med, graciously hosts and educates non-ranchers for months at a time without strangling them, all while maintaining every fence, buying every bull and killing every weed on her ranch.

Adele Stenson of Wibaux and Holly Stoltz of Livingston find innovative solutions to ranching challenges and then — even harder — find ways to share these innovations with hard-headed, independent cusses who want to do it our own way.

In fact, I’ve noticed that often women seek novel innovations to deal with a ranching challenge.

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If a man happens to be around, she might even run it past him.

It’s rubber band ranching – stretch with an idea, contract to assess it, then stretch again to implement it.

Long ago, my friend Michelle and I promoted the One Good Cow program at the Montana Stockgrowers Association meeting.

We asked cattle producers to donate one cow to ranchers who had lost so many in blizzards and floods that year.

As we stood on stage in a room full of dour, silent men, I remember finding the one person I knew and asking what he thought.

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Just as he would bid at a livestock auction, he barely nodded his approval.

We ended up gathering more than 900 cows from across the nation and giving them to 67 producers.

One Good Cow was a good idea.

Now I don’t seek approval for my ideas so sometimes my rubber band doesn’t contract to assess one before I stretch into action.

That’s how I got myself into producing shelf-stable, ready-to-eat meals made with my beef and lamb.

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This is a good idea, too.

I hope.

I wonder if it is easier to ranch as a woman in some ways.

Society pressures men to know all of the answers all of the time, but If I mess up, I try to learn from my mistake and move forward.

When Imposter Syndrome hits or we can’t find a solution to an unsolvable problem – the effects of climate change, commodity markets or competing demands from family – secretly faking it until we make it gets lonely.

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The downward spiral of loneliness and the pressure to be perfect can lead to suicide.

Male ranchers kill themselves 3.5 times more often than the general public.

Female ranchers kill themselves, too, just a little less often.

I’m fortunate to have good friends who love me even when I’m far from perfect.

We laugh together, they remind me that I have a few good attributes even when I forget, they tolerate my weirdness and celebrate little successes.

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They stave off loneliness.

They know all ranchers try our best, we appreciate a little grace, and a warm fire feels good to our cold fingers.

Lisa Schmidt raises grass-fed beef and lamb at the Graham Ranch near Conrad. Lisa can be reached at L.Schmidt@a-land-of-grass-ranch.com.



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Montana cowboys help build trauma ranch for Israeli soldiers

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Montana cowboys help build trauma ranch for Israeli soldiers


The hills of the northern Judean Desert will soon turn yellow and dry. For now, they are covered in green bloom, dotted with bursts of purple and yellow wildflowers, butterflies hovering above them. From a hilltop in the Binyamin region, where Ruthy and Haim Mann run their therapeutic horse ranch, the view opens wide: the Moab Mountains to the east, the Binyamin hills to the north, Wadi Qelt plunging dramatically toward the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea. At moments, when the haze lifts, Herod’s winter palace can be seen in the distance on the other side of the wadi.

Biblical history feels at home here. Philistines and Crusaders, Babylonians and Hasmoneans, Assyrians, Byzantines and Seleucids all passed through. Joshua, Saul and Jonathan fought nearby. David hid in these hills. On one of the mountains opposite us, the Good Samaritan once passed, refusing to ignore a wounded man lying by the roadside and bandaging his injuries.

The desert has seen much. But a band of real-life cowboys from Montana, pointed boots, wide-brimmed hats and oversized belt buckles, is new even for this landscape. But a band of cowboys who wear Tzitzit (fringed ritual garment), bless bread with the Hebrew “hamotzi,” keep Shabbat and study the weekly Torah portion, though they are devout Christians, is new for me as well.

They define themselves as Christian Zionists. Not an official denomination, more a small, independent current on the margins. They have no church of their own. “But it’s growing,” said Zach Strain.

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When I ask Yoss, short for Yosef, Strain and Jedidiah Ellis why they wear blue Tzitzit attached to their belts, Yoss quotes the Book of Numbers, Chapter 15, Verse 39. “That’s the longest I’ve heard him speak since they got here,” Haim Mann jokes.

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רותי וחיים מן, בעלי החווה

Ruthy and Haim Mann, the ranch owners

(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)

On a recent Monday morning, the small group of five men and three women is already at work. Bethany Strain and Lily Plucker haul wheelbarrows of stones, Lily’s three-month-old son, Jethro, strapped to her chest. Her husband, John Plucker, the group’s unofficial leader, builds the wooden ceiling of what will soon become a resilience and support center for soldiers coping with PTSD at the edge of the ranch.

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Yoss and Jedidiah work on the stone wall of the riding arena. Promise Strain washes laundry by hand facing the desert view. Eliora Ellis saws a wooden beam. Zach, who stands nearly 6-foot-7, reinforces the stable fence. They work in near silence, focused, as if fulfilling a commandment.

By profession, Zach trains horses and riders for the film industry, primarily for Westerns, and has appeared in some of them himself. He worked on the TV series “Yellowstone.” When I try to draw him into Hollywood gossip about Kevin Costner, but since there is a biblical injunction against gossip, all I can get out of him is that the horses on the series were the finest and most expensive available. They are reserved, almost shy. They speak sparingly. They appear unaccustomed to social company. Montana is about 18 times the size of Israel with roughly one-tenth its population. The nearest neighbor can be miles away. In the photos they show me, each home looks like it could have stepped straight out of the cast of “Little House on the Prairie”, except for one detail: a giant Star of David mounted on the Strain family home.

All of them are related. Zach, Yoss and Promise Strain are siblings (the fourth brother, Ezekiel, left yesterday). Jedidiah and Eliora are married. Yoss is married to Bethany, John Plucker’s sister. Plucker is married to Lily. It is their last day in Israel, and they seem determined, more than anything, to make the most of every remaining moment. This is their last day, though not their first visit. For most of them, it is their fourth or fifth trip, and never a vacation. They come to work.

Ruthy and Haim Mann, the ranch owners, are Israeli cowboys in their own right. Boots, hats and wide brims included. Haim, a lawyer by training, also carries a handgun. They live in the settlement of Alon, part of a cluster of three Jewish communities northeast of Jerusalem, which includes mixed, religious and secular residents living side by side. “It works beautifully,” Haim says. The population is largely middle-class.

Indeed, although several flashpoints of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including Khan al-Ahmar, lie not far from here, this specific area, located in Area C of the West Bank, is quiet and calm. Not quite Montana, but they manage with what they have.

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רוכבים על רקע מרכז הטיפולים החדשרוכבים על רקע מרכז הטיפולים החדש

Riding against the backdrop of the new treatment center

(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)

Both are remarried. Together they have two daughters, along with four children from Haim’s previous marriage and two from Ruthy’s, and they are grandparents to five grandchildren. Thirteen years ago, they founded a small therapeutic horse ranch. (“We’ve always loved horses,” they say). Ruthy handles treatment, working with teens with autism, motor and social challenges and trauma. Haim manages the horses. Five years ago, they were told to evacuate their original site. “We gave service to the whole community and got a punch in the stomach in return,” Ruthy said. With assistance from the Settlement Division, they relocated to the current hilltop. Haim closed his law office, Ruthy left her job at the Biblical Zoo in Jerusalem, and they committed fully to the ranch, which officially opened to the public about six months ago. Five dunams, 13 horses and a sweeping biblical landscape. Beyond routine therapy for local youth, the ranch increasingly served teens who had left the ultra-Orthodox community, including girls who were victims of sexual abuse, “even at ages 12 and 13”, sometimes within their own families.

About two years ago, they began hosting a joint Passover Seder for dozens of such teens. “The at-risk girls,” Ruthy says, “taught us a great deal about treating trauma.” That knowledge, regrettably, soon became urgently necessary. When war broke out after the October 7’s Hamas massacre, activity at the ranch halted. Ruthy began treating evacuees from southern Israel housed in Dead Sea hotels. “Everything there was terrible,” she says. At first, the therapy sessions were held in the hotels, without horses, using smaller animals instead. Over time, families began coming to the ranch to ride. “We started with 20 families. Within a month, 150 were coming,” she said.

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Soon after, soldiers began arriving, some physically wounded, others psychologically scarred. “It started with soldiers who rode with us as kids,” Haim said. “They enlisted, went to fight and were injured. They came back to us to rehabilitate, to regain control over their lives.”

The Manns speak about the female and male soldiers who came, about the visible and invisible wounds, about trauma and post-traumatic stress. Tears well up in their eyes more than once. In mine, too. The fact that I pushed the subject aside for months does not mean it disappeared. Suddenly, the stories from the war resurface. You can feel the weight pressing on your chest. The word got around. An injured friend brought another wounded friend to the ranch, “until we realized we needed to build something new here,” Haim says. The existing ranch could not meet the scale or the specific needs. The couple decided to establish a separate resilience center for soldiers, to be named after Omer Van Gelder, a former rider from the area who was killed in Gaza in June 2025. The center is steadily taking shape, John Plucker is currently standing on its roof, and they plan to launch a crowdfunding campaign soon to complete the project.

The need, they say, is immense while the supply is limited. Many soldiers from the West Bank have been killed or wounded, disproportionately to their share of the population. “But in all of the West Bank,” Ruthy says, “there isn’t a single ranch like this. There is a resilience center in Binyamin, but not everyone is suited to sitting in a closed room talking to a therapist about their feelings. It’s also a community that is less inclined to ask for help. Still, many people need precisely this kind of therapy, with horses, out in nature.”

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בונים תקרת עץ ביום האחרון בארץבונים תקרת עץ ביום האחרון בארץ

Building a wooden ceiling on their last day in Israel

(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)

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Demand is surging. “We feel the shockwaves of the psychological injuries from the war starting to hit with tremendous force,” Ruthy said. “It’s not just ripples. It’s a tsunami.” Everything mental health experts warned about during the war, that once it ended and there was no longer anything to suppress or conserve strength for, a major wave of psychological casualties would follow, is unfolding before the Manns’ eyes. “You feel it everywhere,” Haim adds. “In rising divorce rates, in pent-up violence. We know that what isn’t treated today will worsen tomorrow. The country has to confront this by building more resilience centers, otherwise we’ll be carrying it for years. “And it’s not like the trauma of October 7 is going to disappear anytime soon. We’ll be living with it for years.”

“There are other injuries that aren’t being talked about enough,” Ruthy says. “For instance, girls who were already in very difficult circumstances before October 7 and had just started to rebuild their lives, only for the war to shift attention elsewhere and leave them sidelined.” There are also many patients with older wounds and traumas that resurfaced, but there isn’t enough time, enough therapists or enough resources to reach them.” The sound of a bell rings out to announce lunch. The group gathers in the ranch’s main building for a modest meal of white rice and a tough steak. They recite a blessing over the food and eat in silence.

Haim Mann says the connection with the Montana Cowboys began in November 2023, less than a month after the October 7 massacre, when a group of Montana ranchers arrived in Israel to help local farmers, more precisely, farmers in the West Bank. The initiative was organized by HaYovel, founded by the Waller family, themselves Christian Zionists, who came to Israel about 20 years ago, settled in the Har Bracha area and began bringing other Christian Zionist volunteers to work in the region.

Word of the group’s arrival reached Haim as well. “I wanted to thank them, in my name and on behalf of the Jewish people. I offered them a day of horseback riding in the area. They came here and fell in love. We fell in love with them, too.” The group stayed at the ranch for three months, building everything by hand. “They were like a miracle for us,” Haim says. “We didn’t have a dime.” This latest visit, about a month long, focused entirely on constructing the new center.

Zach first visited Israel in 2014. This is his fourth trip. “It was very important for me to come help, to build and strengthen Israel,” he said. “Israel is the light of the world, maybe even the foundation of the world. I don’t know how to explain it, but when you’re here, you feel it.”

What does it mean to be a Christian Zionist?
“Some people call us that. Maybe it’s accurate,” he said. “We don’t have definitions.”

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How do you define yourself?
“We don’t spend much time defining it. We’re somewhat different. We just go by the Bible. We’re not part of any church. It’s not really a movement. Nobody knows us. It started with our family, and people joined.”

I watch a video of a Shabbat meal at the family home in Montana: Kiddush over wine, Sabbath songs and a reading of the weekly Torah portion. They look a bit like the Amish. “We are not evangelicals”, he insisted. “We’re not trying to convert anyone. And I don’t even understand why I would need to convert anyone.” “We’re not evangelicals,” Bethany says as well, “but we’re fairly close to that.”

Zach, have you noticed a change in Israel compared to your previous visits?
“Since the war, I think people have come to see more clearly how deep and destructive evil can be. In America, it’s created a serious division. Many think Israel shouldn’t exist. That’s what’s being taught in schools today. They don’t know what’s happening here.”

That’s what they’re teaching in schools?
“We didn’t attend public schools,” he says. “Our parents pulled us out because they were teaching us lies.”

Zach also refers to John Plucker as the group’s unofficial leader. “I go where John tells me,” he explains. The fact that Plucker is 12 years younger does not seem to matter. The Strain and Plucker families have known each other for years and are closely connected. Two of the Plucker daughters are married to two of the Strain sons.

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“‘Unofficial leader’ is a good definition,” agrees John Plucker, 27.

Are you really a cowboy?
“Yes. That’s how I grew up, on a traditional ranch with horses and cattle and everything. Today I’m an independent contractor and run a construction company. There’s not much money in ranching. It’s more of a lifestyle. I want to work a few more years and buy some land.”

Plucker does not define himself as a Christian Zionist. “I’m just a regular Christian,” he says. “But I see Israel the same way they do, and we believe the same things, so maybe I am a Christian Zionist? I don’t know. Honestly, I don’t really care.”

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הבוקרים בשדות מונטנההבוקרים בשדות מונטנה

The cowboys in Montana fields

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(Photo: Courtesy)

So why did you come?
“The Strains have been coming for years, and they convinced me. We all love Israel very much. The first time I was here was after COVID, and it was incredible. HaYovel brought us. They believe God gave this place to the Jewish people. Here I learned a lot about redemption. You can see it happening in real time. It’s powerful. You learn much more here than just by reading the Bible.”

The last time he came was in November 2023. “They brought us to work in Shiloh, harvesting olives. The moment I came to the ranch, I fell in love, even though there was nothing here yet. My background is ranching and horses, so this suited me much more than picking olives, which is a pretty strange job, honestly. We didn’t hesitate to return, even though our baby had just been born.

“I see what they’re doing here with the young men and women who come for therapy. They give them purpose. They turn something negative into positive. It really brings redemption into people’s lives. I’m glad to be part of it. I already want to come back again. Staying in one place for a long time, building relationships, that’s a blessing.”

When I ask about politics, the group responds with puzzled looks, as if they had never even heard of Trump.“We’re simple ranchers,” Plucker said. “These things don’t interest us. We’re aligned with conservative views, but I don’t really understand politics. I’m here for the Jewish people. Politics may be important here, but not for us.”

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By midday, the horses are released ahead of the afternoon’s therapy sessions. I meet Aviv, Sinai, Negev, Pele, Pazit, Milky and Moshe, a large black horse. I do not ride, but standing beside them, something shifts. A horse is a wonder. Sinai, a horse, or perhaps a mare, I didn’t check, walks toward me and looks straight into my soul. We share a quiet moment.

What is it about horses?
“A horse is a spiritual animal,” Ruthy said from atop Negev. “Every encounter with a horse exposes the soul. The horse immediately senses your frequency. If you’re tense, it’s tense. If you’re calm, it’s calm.”

“What allowed horses to survive for 80 million years is extreme sensitivity,” Haim said. “They are alert to fear, to anxiety. They feel your heartbeat, your breathing. A horse is a perfect mirror for someone living with PTSD. When a person jumps at the sound of a motorcycle and shifts into survival mode, the horse shifts just as quickly. And when you calm down, the horse calms down with you. It forces you to lead, not with force, but with quiet confidence.”

Ruthy sees symbolism as well. “A horse is an open, unburdened space. The entire archetype of the horse is about strength and success, getting back on the horse, being on top of things. That’s also our therapeutic philosophy: to reconnect with that life force, to climb back into the saddle even after the hardest falls. It restores a sense of control to people who have lost all control over their lives.”





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Evacuation orders issued as 5,000-acre wildfire burns near Roundup, Montana

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Evacuation orders issued as 5,000-acre wildfire burns near Roundup, Montana



The Rehder Creek Fire is burning 16 miles southeast of Roundup has grown to about 5,000 acres, prompting evacuation orders for residents in the Bruner Mountain Area/Subdivision.

The fire started Feb. 26, the cause is unknown and containment was at 0%.

Evacuation orders are in effect for all residents in the Bruner Mountain Area/Subdivision. The Musselshell County Sheriff’s Office is coordinating the evacuation orders, and 911 reverse calls have been sent out to advise people in the area.

A shelter is opening at the Roundup Community Center. Residents were told to contact Musselshell County DES for further information.

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Firefighter and public safety remain the top priority. The public is asked to avoid the Fattig Creek and Rehder Road area so emergency personnel can safely and effectively perform their work.

Fire resources assigned to the incident include 40 total personnel, 11 engines, one Type 2 helicopter, three tenders and two dozers.



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